BC Provincial Politics Thread

[rubecube]

I know this is an Alberta forum. I also know we have quite a few political junkies on here. BC is set to elect a new government in May. Discuss.

By looks of things to me, the NDP are going to grab a majority, which is too bad. Would've liked to see what they could've done with a minority government first.

[Zarley]

It's a shame that the NDP are going to win, but it should be good news for Alberta's economy at least.

[TurnedTheCorner]

If Alberta politics can be boiled down to asking periodically "Is the government right enough?", then BC politics can be boiled down to asking periodically "Is the government green enough?"

[Blaster86]

Been a long time coming. If the NDP had a smart or savy leader 6 years ago, they'd have had a majority then, at the very least a very strong minority. As far as politics go, the Liberals have left too many loose threads for opponents to pull at and for some reason, Carol James never just grabbed one and tugged.

Political alignment aside, it'll look much the same as 99/00 and it will have everything to do with how corrupt the ruling party was just like 99/00.

[Sylvanfan]

It's been forever since BC had any type of political leader. It's been a follie of one party corrupting themselves out of power while the other sits back and happens to be the only other choice. Basically sitting back until the other party figures out how to lose the election.

[Mike F]

My read on the upcoming election is that many are flocking to the NDP more because they're p***ed at the Liberals than because they're attracted to NDP policy, which is a poor reason to put a party in power.

I'm left leaning socially, but have way too many memories of previous BC NDP gov'ts screwing up the economy to be comfortable with the upcoming change.

[Matty81]

Naw BC has a solid 40% of the poplation who vote NDP every time, its not a protest vote. The 40-50% of the population who are Libs and Cons usually band together because its the only way they keep power as they are both individually much small groups provincially. Thats the BC Liberal party, neither truly Liberal nor Conservative and they've been very sucessful.

This election, a combo of poor leadership by Campbell at the end and Clark's poor performance with some redneck Conservative guy breaking ranks and starting a new party which has taken 8-10% of the "free enterprise coalition" vote has reduced the BC Liberal base to high 20 percent.

The NDP are a big unknown, they appear to be trying a platform similar to Mulcair, moving towards the centre and appealing to moderates. There's some suspicion of this (at least from my point of view) as almost all of their largest donations came from unions (there is a public database of election donations in bc) who they may end up beholden to.

[Mike F]

I wasn't trying to imply everyone voting NDP was doing so as a protest, just referring to the motivations of many swing voters.

Not going to lie, though. I follow international events more than local, and probably know more about the upstart opposition factions in Syria than in BC.

[Matty81]

I guess while most of the vote are NDPers, I think you are right to an extent Mike, last two elections the NDP were around 42% and they're polling at 49-50% right now so they have picked up a few disgruntled free enterprise folks. Bottom line is though, with the mini rise of the Conservative party who could never hope to win an election in BC in a normal year, the centre/right is so fragmented that they would lose anyway even if they recover that 7% so the protest vote is irrelevant. It's kind of similar to the federal scene in reverse with vote splitting, although the BC NDP are much more popular percentage wise than the federal conservatives ever managed so unity for the centre/right is more important.

Basically in order to win, Clark needs to pick up 18% in the polls by winning over the right and obliterating the Conservatives 10% and then win back 6-8% of what they've lost to the left as well. Pretty much an impossible task to appease both extremes.. though stranger things have happened.

Her early tact has been the tried and true scare tactics... "run from the NDP, they will screw us over". Hasn't appeared to gain much traction yet as her own credibility is very low. Crappy election for us in Kelowna, with all the wealthy Albertans who have retired here and the local farm/orchard vote our 3 ridings are among the most solidly right wing ridings in the province. If the NDP come to power we are going to face an uphill battle for public funding, especially with the Kelowna hospital campus getting so much money in recent years.

This is a great site to follow the numbers (people who enjoy politics probably already know of it):
http://www.threehundredeight.com/
They have regular updates on the BC election at the top and more detailed riding by riding projections as well.

[d_phaneuf]

NDP win here is going to happen, at this point just hoping they can't do enough damage over 1 term to have any lasting impact

with a minority I wouldn't be as worried (in general I would prefer a minority most of the time regardless of who is in power), but they are going to have a large majority it looks like

They are playing the election smart to the general public, there's really nothing the Liberals can do at this point, and I agree with Mike F in that regard, a lot of the swing votes outside hard core NDP/Libs was going to go to the NDP this election regardless

the NDP are running a vanilla campaign and are going to win a land slide

they aren't even being put in a position where they need to make any public promises, when the Liberals released their budget, Dix criticized it but when pushed for things he would do differently didn't give any answer, in a closer election he couldn't get away with that

Clarke has been a disaster and she needs to go though

[afc wimbledon]

Actually the good thing about a massive win is the party is in some ways less beholden to the unions, I would hope Dix learnt from the Glen Clarke years.

[Matty81]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Actually the good thing about a massive win is the party is in some ways less beholden to the unions, I would hope Dix learnt from the Glen Clarke years.

Hope you're right, it's my main concern with them. I did look at the BC donation database a while back and almost all of their large donations came from unions. Many of the large liberal donations came from corporations, surprising to me how many of them like Telus for instance would openly wade into the political arena.

The NDP platform such as it is doesn't scare me as much economically as some of the folks who lived through past NDP governments. They are claiming they will run a balanced budget and I think that the NDP across Canada know if they want to be a viable political party going forward they need to at least stay close to that with their reputation - the reality of what an NDP government would be has changed, at least a little from the 80s and 90s. Their moves to raise taxes were pretty minimal impact for 95% of the population.

What does worry me is that the Liberals only negotiated very short 2 year Collective Agreements with all of the healthcare unions which will all expire next year and the NDP will be steering the ship on negotiating with groups who basically funded their election. No better than the Libs giving tax breaks to the corporations that funded them but still concerning.

Healthcare is the biggest government expense and wages are the biggest component. The nurses union in particular has a very rich agreement already, many of the RNs here who work a lot of overtime work make more than most of the management structure and their union is extremely powerful.

[evman150]

Both leaders are hopeless. I'm still shocked Dix got chosen. He's a male Carole James. He's got the charisma of a paper bag hot dump on the doorstep.

My only interest in this election is seeing Andrew Weaver (Green) win Oak Bay-Gordon Head.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by evman150

Both leaders are hopeless. I'm still shocked Dix got chosen. He's a male Carole James. He's got the charisma of a paper bag hot dump on the doorstep.

Having seen them both speak that isn't true. While Dix isn't exactly bursting over the top with charisma, Carole James literally put me to sleep. She followed up Jenny Kwan who did half her speech in Cantonese that I couldn't understand and kept me engaged. Fell asleep in my chair for James.

[Mr.Coffee]

Can anyone speak knowledgeably about what the NDP plan to do with the energy industry and the LNG projects planned?

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Can anyone speak knowledgeably about what the NDP plan to do with the energy industry and the LNG projects planned?

Are they green? Keep em. Not green? Try and green em or kill em. But they are being super tightlipped about everything they can. They know this is all but wrapped up, just don't rock the boat.

[Matty81]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Can anyone speak knowledgeably about what the NDP plan to do with the energy industry and the LNG projects planned?

They have not addressed it yet. Blaster86 is right that they have been pretty tightlipped until they made their tax increase announcement last week. I would expect now that they've announced where they'll get some money there will be an announcement a week at least on new programs/promises. Wouldn't expect them to get too controversial leading by as much as they are in the polls. Am predicting some sort of provincial daycare initiative.

Most of what I've heard them say about LNG in the past indicates that they view it as a potential cash cow but will likely favor more environmental hoops for any projects. Dix in December was quoted as saying that LNG is a good opportunity and wants to work for more jobs but some of his MLAs have sounded off on the environmental side

[cal_guy]

Originally Posted by Zarley

It's a shame that the NDP are going to win, but it should be good news for Alberta's economy at least.

It's not a zero-sum game what's bad for your neighbour is likely bad for you as well.

[rubecube]

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canad...222424787.html

Dayleen" goes on to say her husband's parents, who lived in Holland during the Second World War, lost everything during the Nazi occupation of their country.

"Are they getting a paycheck every month or a huge lump sum every year tax free...no... they got nothing but work in a concentration camp. It's time our generation stopped paying for the mistakes of the past..."

At least they booted her.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by rubecube

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canad...222424787.html

I actually think that's a perfectly valid opinion to hold, and it's a shame that it's such a taboo. My view of human rights is that they are derived logically from human needs and net benefits to society. As such, one segment of the population shouldn't have a different set of rights simply for having arrived first. Yeah there's treaties, but I don't believe that a signed treaty should have precedence over equal rights.