Is that a missile in your pocket or wait its a missile

[Fozzie_DeBear]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Wich ever way this goes the civilian population loses.

That includes the status quo

I'm beginning to think China is the least worst realistic option.

Unless you could somehow conquer NK put it under UN control (that'd go over well due to history) and make the whole thing a DMZ for 50 years while you figure out reunification. At least that would keep the American/Korean armies off Chinas border. And keep the geopolitical balance relatively intact.

It's not gonna happen though.

[FlameOn]

Map of current troop movements in the NK area

[Azure]

Barring religious extremism, I don't see why the people of NK, if allowed, couldn't integrate into South Korean society, and in 20-30 years have a significantly higher quality of life.

If you go by pictures, 50 years ago South Korea looked exactly like North Korea looks right now.

[jeffman]

Originally Posted by Azure

Barring religious extremism, I don't see why the people of NK, if allowed, couldn't integrate into South Korean society, and in 20-30 years have a significantly higher quality of life.

If you go by pictures, 50 years ago South Korea looked exactly like North Korea looks right now.

How economically productive can 24 million people be if they are only educated on how grat Kim Jong il is

[schteve_d]

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by jeffman

How economically productive can 24 million people be if they are only educated on how grat Kim Jong il is

I'm guessing the integration would be difficult. There are still tensions in East/West Germany

[SebC]

Solution: South Korea takes over North Korea, then broadcasts a CGI Kim in the North declaring they won, and he's made some changes now that he's unified Korea.

[FlamesAddiction]

Japan is deploying patriot missiles is Tokyo right now. Perhaps a sign that they expect another missile test soon.

http://www.theprovince.com/news/worl...828/story.html

Even if N.Korea is just firing it over Japan like they do once in a while, they should shoot it down just to make a point.

[CaptainCrunch]

Problem with shooting a missile like that down is the debris has to come down somewhere.

[Sluggo]

When talking about North Korea, people should emphasize the MISS in missile.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Oh and one poster said that the Chinese Army massing on the border is to stop the flood of refugees. The Chinese are moving their heavy hitter formations to the border like the 190th mechanized brigade which is a balanced combination of advanced modern battletanks and APC's supported by administrative artillery formations. Units like this aren't made to be effective border patrols against Civilians. They're built as the first to front armored fist where their speed, mobility and firepower rip holes in an enemy formation and charged to rear to encircle enemy defenses. The Chinese are also working up their airforce heavily.

The Chinese have placed an invasion capable formation at the border. If this was about stopping refugees, the Chinese have entire regiments of dedicated border guards that they would use.

Thanks for your post generally. As to this part, I believe China has a good chance of staring down Kim Jong-un, unlike South Korea / US, because they really are quite prepared to launch a proper invasion.

What we are seeing is what China wants to put on display; their powerful, modern army, the opposite of "endless rows of men in uniforms" that is the traditional image of the Chinese army.

China also wants to establish themselves as a true world power, which pretty much means that eventually they will find a war somewhere. So what I'm coming to is this; while the Chinese are not stupid enough to really want to invade North Korea, they will still propably take the chance to have their own globally accepted TV war, if Kim Jong-un is foolish enough to give them a good enough reason.

That will to go to war is evident in Chinese actions, and yes, I agree that it partly shows that Kim Jong-un is not the political strategist that his predecessors were. His father and grandfather were very good at playing China and US "against each other", for the lack of a better term, by dancing the line of being in China's "sphere of influence" while constantly appearing to be close to slipping out of it.

However, I doubt Kim Jong-un is stupid, and because he should see that the Chinese really are ready to go to war if that's what it takes to quiet him down, he will propably back down eventually. He really just needs a way of doing it that he can declare as a "victory". The problem with that however is that the people in positions of power in North Korea are not indoctrinated simpletons. On the contrary, they tend to be politically savvy creatures who are very good at seeing through BS.

(My father had some NK connections in the eighties actually. Complicated story, but no, he was not pro NK.)

As a sidenote, despite all the crazy talk in regular circulation in the US, I think there are a lot of signs that the US is in fact getting quite war-weary, and North Korea has all the optics of being potentially yet another disaster/political flop in the style of Afghanistan and Iraq. Kim Jong-un is I believe to some extent taking advantage of this politically. Should something go down now, I think there's a genuine possibility that the US might not be able to gather up the political will to properly stretch it's muscles. Some half-assed sabre-rattling and "border conflicts" with some shots fired would serve Kim Jong-un well.

[Fozzie_DeBear]

An interesting podcast on Medieval Japan...I think you can see some interesting parallels between the Japanese militaristic, isolationist regime and North Korea.

[Plett25]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

I'm guessing the integration would be difficult. There are still tensions in East/West Germany

When East & West Germany reunited, the West German GDP per capita was about 3 or 4 times that of East Germany.

South Korea has a per capita GDP 20 times that of North Korea... the disparity in wealth, education, infrastructure is staggering. Reuniting the Koreas would be like 17 million Bangladeshis immigrating to Canada due to climate change.

It wouldn't surprise me if the majority of South Koreans would prefer a couple of generations of a Chinese puppet government in Pyongyang to reduce the disparity in wealth, education, infrastructure to the level of East & West Germany.

[CaptainCrunch]

It would be a very tough integration. South Korea would need to find a way to feed all of these people and then create future infrastructure to do it. The North has done an effective job of wasting any good farmland and creating farmland where nothing can grow.

You also have a heavily indoctrinated people who are going to resist change,

It would be incredibly though for South Korea to handle that kind of refugee and infrastructure deficit.

However South Korea would get some amazing benefits upon Unification, they would be able to marry North Korea's mineral wealth to South Korea's industrial might.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

It would be a very tough integration. South Korea would need to find a way to feed all of these people and then create future infrastructure to do it. The North has done an effective job of wasting any good farmland and creating farmland where nothing can grow.

You also have a heavily indoctrinated people who are going to resist change,

It would be incredibly though for South Korea to handle that kind of refugee and infrastructure deficit.

However South Korea would get some amazing benefits upon Unification, they would be able to marry North Korea's mineral wealth to South Korea's industrial might.

This is an interesting comparsion between the 2:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/data...korea-compared

Basically, you would be adding 30% more people that currently have 10% of the GDP of the country they would be integrating with. Plus many of them are malnourished and need medical help.

Complicating things even further is that the people of the North will be entitled to vote and other benefits. It would play havoc on South Korean politics.

I really think that North Korea needs to an internationally administered country until reunification would make it less drastic.

Also, I love this stat:

Total number of people sentenced to death:

North = 0; South =13

Total number of people executed:

North = 105, South = 0

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

This is an interesting comparsion between the 2:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/data...korea-compared

Basically, you would be adding 30% more people that currently have 10% of the GDP of the country they would be integrating with. Plus many of them are malnourished and need medical help.

Complicating things even further is that the people of the North will be entitled to vote and other benefits. It would play havoc on South Korean politics.

I really think that North Korea needs to an internationally administered country until reunification would make it less drastic.

Also, I love this stat:

Total number of people sentenced to death:

North = 0; South =13

Total number of people executed:

North = 105, South = 0

I fear the idea of the UN running a country,the people would starve even faster. I would think that the smart thing would be a joint Chinese South Korean American council would make more sense.

The execution numbers make no sense. When you are sentence to one of their camps,especially the higher level ones, you die there, they work you and starve you to death and occasionally hang you . But those stats don't count because they are unpersons. Its estimated that several thousand die per year in the prison systems. A lot of whom are there because of perceived crimes committed by your family members.

[Plett25]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Complicating things even further is that the people of the North will be entitled to vote and other benefits. It would play havoc on South Korean politics.

This is a really interesting point.

It is one thing to ask South Koreans to deal with the financial obligations of building infrastructure in N. Korea (I doubt there's much up there worth re-building) and deal with the flood of refugees, but to also ask them to risk having a democracy?

I don't think that one of the Kim's would be elected President, but North Korea would be to a reunified Korea what the former Confederacy is to the USA. 150 years later and political divides in the US still run along the border of the CSA and the USA.

As much as we westerners grumble about Quebec's influence in Canada, North Korea would have a much larger influence in a reunified Korea. And while Quebecers march to the beat of their own drummer, we share a common history, economy and values. Quebecers certainly haven't been indoctrinated to resent, distrust and hate the rest of Canada.

Quebec v. the rest of Canada or the South v. the rest of the USA might be the best case 22nd century outcome for a reunified Korea. And that would be after a century of less optimal politics.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Plett25

This is a really interesting point.

It is one thing to ask South Koreans to deal with the financial obligations of building infrastructure in N. Korea (I doubt there's much up there worth re-building) and deal with the flood of refugees, but to also ask them to risk having a democracy?

I don't think that one of the Kim's would be elected President, but North Korea would be to a reunified Korea what the former Confederacy is to the USA. 150 years later and political divides in the US still run along the border of the CSA and the USA.

As much as we westerners grumble about Quebec's influence in Canada, North Korea would have a much larger influence in a reunified Korea. And while Quebecers march to the beat of their own drummer, we share a common history, economy and values. Quebecers certainly haven't been indoctrinated to resent, distrust and hate the rest of Canada.

Quebec v. the rest of Canada or the South v. the rest of the USA might be the best case 22nd century outcome for a reunified Korea. And that would be after a century of less optimal politics.

Maybe Germany is a better example. How has the reunification been there?

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Maybe Germany is a better example. How has the reunification been there?

East Germany was one of the most industrialized and technologically advanced portions of the old Soviet bloc and there were still huge problems with integrating the two societies. There are still huge transfer payments going from the western German provinces to support to the eastern German provinces.

Eastern Germany is still very under developed. Basically over $2trillion in transfer payments have occurred and the West hasn't gotten any better in the last 2 decades while the East has reaped most the benefits. It'll be on a much larger scale if the Koreas reunite... they don't even have basic infrastructure up North where the East Germans did.

Back on topic. North Korea threatens to nuke the South Tomorrow.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/...acuate-South??

[CaptainCrunch]

Just to give an idea

Night time satellite images of Korea





The Bright lights in the North represent prison camps or the Kim Palaces, or specific areas of the central capital