Flames 2013 Draft Discussion

[Captain_Obvious]

Originally Posted by VERVE

Hey, my previous post regarding BOA was quite mellow yellow and very compassionate so much so that I was going to send a rose over...

You're talking about posts regarding the 19 losses in the last 23 games?

I don't remember seeing them.

[VERVE]

Originally Posted by Captain_Obvious

You're talking about posts regarding the 19 losses in the last 23 games?

I don't remember seeing them.

Like to chit chat but got to go. Beauty sleep awaits...

[Stormchaser]

This might be a fat fata but here is the 2013 Draft Lottery Simulator......love the Bettman Draft!

http://timgur.com/nhl/draft/#

[Canada 02]

Originally Posted by stormchaser

This might be a fat fata but here is the 2013 Draft Lottery Simulator......love the Bettman Draft!

http://timgur.com/nhl/draft/#

first try, Calgary 1st, Pittsburgh 4th, St. Louis 5th. If only

[darthma]

Originally Posted by stormchaser

This might be a fat fata but here is the 2013 Draft Lottery Simulator......love the Bettman Draft!

http://timgur.com/nhl/draft/#

^^^ This confused the heck out of me... because it is not a proper reflection of the probability of drafting first. Is this just some random guy doing a stats project?

So... I googled and saw this (which I'm sure has been brought up before) - http://www.torontosun.com/2013/03/04...-draft-lottery

The likelihood a team can win the first overall pick, from the club with the fewest points to 14th, is as follows: 25%, 18.8%, 14.2%, 10.7%, 8.1%, 6.2%, 4.7%, 3.6%, 2.7%, 2.1%, 1.5%, 1.1%, 0.8% and 0.5%.

I do not know what the probability of teams moving up and down the draft order aside from the first pick. Given that this is likely to be important down the stretch fail, it'd be nice to have this fully spelled out somewhere.

[Da_Chief]

^Thats the simulator if the whole season had been cancelled I believe. Theres no way Pit and Stl can win the lottery if they make the playoffs.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by darthma

^^^ This confused the heck out of me... because it is not a proper reflection of the probability of drafting first. Is this just some random guy doing a stats project?

So... I googled and saw this (which I'm sure has been brought up before) - http://www.torontosun.com/2013/03/04...-draft-lottery



I do not know what the probability of teams moving up and down the draft order aside from the first pick. Given that this is likely to be important down the stretch fail, it'd be nice to have this fully spelled out somewhere.

The simulator was just using the 2005 draft style they used last lockout, made while this season wasn't looking good.

There's just the single lottery now. All non-playoff teams enter it but aren't weighted equally (i.e. worst overall has best chance to win at 25%). The team that wins it moves to first overall. The rest of the teams are either not affected (they were drafting behind the lottery winner anyways) or are pushed back a single spot (they were drafting ahead of the winner pre-lottery).

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by stormchaser

This might be a fat fata but here is the 2013 Draft Lottery Simulator......love the Bettman Draft!

http://timgur.com/nhl/draft/#

The 2013 Bettman draft lottery would be Phoenix.

[loob job]

Wouldn't it be amazing if we landed the first overall pick, then traded our other two first rounders to move up to the fourth or fifth position. I would cream myself. And if our two first rounders weren't enough to move up to fourth or fifth give them more picks to get us there.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by loob job

Wouldn't it be amazing if we landed the first overall pick, then traded our other two first rounders to move up to the fourth or fifth position. I would cream myself. And if our two first rounders weren't enough to move up to fourth or fifth give them more picks to get us there.

We would have to add substantially to the 15th+30th pick to move into the top 5. Likely costs us Sven or Johnny + the blues pick at least

[loob job]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

We would have to add substantially to the 15th+30th pick to move into the top 5. Likely costs us Sven or Johnny + the blues pick at least

If St. Louis and Pitt get beat out first round that would be two picks in the 15-22 range. Give them both plus (not one of those guys you mentioned) but at least offer it up to someone..............i'm just dreaming but man that would be wicked. The 5th pick for the 15th and 22nd and a second rounder next year. That has to make someone at least listen. But yeah, if st. lou or pitt goes to the final it would be impossible to do probably.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by loob job

If St. Louis and Pitt get beat out first round that would be two picks in the 15-22 range. Give them both plus (not one of those guys you mentioned) but at least offer it up to someone..............i'm just dreaming but man that would be wicked. The 5th pick for the 15th and 22nd and a second rounder next year. That has to make someone at least listen. But yeah, if st. lou or pitt goes to the final it would be impossible to do probably.

I think the top end is very strong - so it will be that much harder to move up by offering a package of other picks. I think the only way to move up to the top 6/7 is to offer good young players .

Basically you'd have to overpay - something the Flames are not well positioned to do.

[GoFlamesGo1989]

If we don't trade our Blues and Pens pick to get into the top 8 we should look at drafting Josh Morrissey and Adam Erne.

[Da_Chief]

We're prob not moving or it'll cost too much. Just draft with what we have and hope these guys develop into good players.

The best thing that can happen is us winning the lottery but bot Col and Flo wanting Jones. Start a bit of bidding war between the two and come away something nice while moving to 2nd or 3rd and taking MacKinnon or Drouin.

Either way after this draft we should have MacKinnon/Drouin + Sven moving forward to build the forwards around.

To be honest I actually trust our drafting right now, the reports that came out where Galchenyuk was rated as the top player by our scouts is encouraging. I'm starting to really like the Jankowski pick its a boom bust type of pick and thats what we need. No more Chucko etc who's ceiling is basically a 3rd line. Jank has the vision, playmaking, skating, size if he develops properly we could be looking at a star. I really think he will be good, watch out next year that young Friars team will be bit experienced and he should really step his game.

[nickerjones]

Originally Posted by Da_Chief

The best thing that can happen is us winning the lottery but bot Col and Flo wanting Jones. Start a bit of bidding war between the two and come away something nice while moving to 2nd or 3rd and taking MacKinnon or Drouin.

Either way after this draft we should have MacKinnon/Drouin + Sven moving forward to build the forwards around.

Instead of Drouin , what about Aleksander Barkov? I was listening to the NHL channel on satellite radio and they are comparing him to Kopitar w/ more puck skills , mainly because he is so big. A big skilled centre , hell just a really good centre, is something we definitely need.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by loob job

If St. Louis and Pitt get beat out first round that would be two picks in the 15-22 range. Give them both plus (not one of those guys you mentioned) but at least offer it up to someone..............i'm just dreaming but man that would be wicked. The 5th pick for the 15th and 22nd and a second rounder next year. That has to make someone at least listen. But yeah, if st. lou or pitt goes to the final it would be impossible to do probably.

There's almost no chance of the Penguins pick being the 22nd. In terms of draft order there's no difference between dropping out in the first round or the second round. And the division winners who fail to move on, in reverse order of standings, are given the latest picks in the 15th-26th range. That would require Chicago (probable), Anaheim (possible), Montreal (possible) and Vancouver/Minnesota (improbable) to pass them in the regular season standings and none of them advancing to the conference finals.

At this point I'd say it would require the stars to align, or maybe more accurately continue to get injured, for that Penguins pick to drop below the 25th.

But I share the sentiment, I'll hope the Flames try to move up with those picks (assuming Blues make the playoffs) until Nichushkin is taken.

[Brick]

I am hoping that the Flames draft BIG skilled players that are the closest available to their picks.

[PeteMoss]

I have no knowledge about this... but if you only include defensemen who played in North America and excluding the Europeans who never played in the CHL... does the ratio of successes improve?

I tend to think overseas defensemen are the ones who bust... but haven't looked at it in anyway.

[Oling_Roachinen]

No clue on the actual odds, but Sweden seems to producing a nice crop of future defenders.

I believe all these players made their way to NA after the draft, but my memory might be mistaken.

Karlsson (1st), Edler, Oliver Ekman-Larsson(1st), Larsson(1st), Rundblad(1st), Hedman(1st), Brodin(1st), Enstrom, Klefbom(1st) and Tom(1st). Wouldn't be surprised to see first round selections of Swedish defenders having one of the highest success rates over the last 10 years, although relatively few of them picked.

[starseed]

I think OEL remained in Sweden for another year.

Do you think we might score Anthony Mantha for the St Louis pick? Big winger who kicked into OD and averaged almost a goal and assist per game in the playoffs?