The Drive for 30th

[Savvy27]

For the people in favor of taking Jones: Taking into account the list of top 3 Defenseman picks since 2000 and seeing all the disappointments, what do you see in Jones that makes him different from a guy like Eric Johnson? I thought he was good in the World Jrs, but not spectacular.

[driveway]

Do not want Seth Jones. DO NOT WANT. Drafting a defenseman in the top three is frequently a poor idea and drafting a defenseman 1st overall has not resulted in getting a franchise D in the last 20+ years. I'd argue that, of all the D selected first through 3rd since Chris Pronger (2nd overall in 1993) only Drew Doughty (2nd in 2008) has really lived up to the "franchise" tag, and there's still a whole bunch of time for Doughty to not live up to his potential.

Here's the list of defensemen drafted in the top three since 1990. Those who went 1st overall: Hamrlik, Berard, Phillips, Erik Johnson. None of those players have come close to being either the best player, or even the best defenseman in their draft.

DO NOT draft a defenseman with the 1st overall pick. Never, never, never.


1991- Scott Niedermayer (3)
1992- Roman Hamrlk (1)
1993- Chris Pronger (2)
1994- Ed Jovanovski (1), Oleg Tverdovsky (2)
1995- Bryan Berard (1), Wade Redden (2), Aki-Petteri Berg (3)
1996- Chris Phillips (1), Andrei Zyuzin (2)
1998- Brad Stuart (3)
2002- Jay Bouwmeester (3)
2004- Cam Barker (3)
2005- Jack Johnson (3)
2006- Erik Johnson (1)
2008- Drew Doughty (2), Zach Bogosian (3)
2009- Victor Hedman (2)
2010- Erik Gudbranson (3)

The only way I'd accept Seth Jones is if we end up with the 4th or 5th pick and he's still on the board, or if we somehow manage to trade up and get two in the top four or five.

[djsFlames]

If we somehow land in last place aka 1st overall at the end of the season, I see two really appealing options for us..

1) We trade down to 2nd with Florida or Colorado if they are set on Jones and pick up an extra pick or good prospect/young player in exchange. We then can draft MacKinnon/Drouin.

2) If we package the two other 1sts + to grab a second pick in the top 10, THEN we could draft Jones and still get a potential top center in Monahan (or another solid 5-10 ranked C)

[goodyear]

^^^If that simulation is right, I'll even package the Flames' other two* (let's go Blues) first rounders and maybe throw in a better prospect - maybe Brossoit or Sieloff and trade for the 2nd pick and get both Drouin and MacKinnon.

I know, this is armchair GMing but what else can a Flames fan do right now??? Esp after loosing 8-2 to the coil.

#Death4Seth
#NotWinning4Mackinnon
#Ruin4Drouin

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Vedder

What's all this 5 talk about? You can still only move down 1 spot right? I'm feeling pretty confident in that 1 or 2 pick right now.

well if we somehow win a couple games...I expect them to pick top 3

[pinnochio5]

Cheering for the Flames to lose games and get 30th this season, hurts, but it needs to be done.

Cheering for them to lose this season in a way is like cheering for them to win big next season. Whatever increases the chances of them making a good post season appearance in the future I'll support.

[kirant]

Originally Posted by StrykerSteve

This simulation seems entirely reasonable.

If the other teams act the way it's said there, I'd take:
#3) MacKinnon. Easy pick.
#15) Mantha. I'm not a huge fan of Mantha, but he's got all the tools. With 3 1st round picks, I'd be happy to gamble and hope our remains from Bouwmeester turn into a complete package from a lazy CHLer ala Getzlaf. If a big centre is wanted, I've liked Gauthier for a while. Massive, can play physical (though that's tapered after his injury), two way forward. Sounds a lot like O'Reilly or Couturier from what I hear. Then again, I'd be surprised if Gauthier is still around at 15. I see him as a top 10 pick.
#29) Shea Theodore. This 29th pick is in a bit of no-man's land. I can't see any players I'd really want that couldn't be acquired by trading down and getting another pick out of it. Theodore is a good player though...problem is, almost all his skills are something the Flames have already. He'd be a deadly combination offensively with Brodie, but the lack of defensive awareness and overall grit makes it a bit tough for me to really say this is good since the Flames already struggle with these.

[gargamel]

For those of you who can't bring yourself to cheer for losses, but realize that wins right now are only hurting our future, are you still watching the games? That's pretty much where I'm at right now, and I'm still watching but I'm not taking any joy out of it whatsoever.

It will be different if we call up a bunch of young guys over the next few weeks, but I hate watching games where every goal is frustrating whether it's scored by us or our opponent.

[TurnedTheCorner]

This thread is disgusting.

[Hockey_Ninja]

Originally Posted by TurnedTheCorner

This thread is disgusting.

I don't like it either but this season is over and there is nothing more that i want then us getting one of the top 3 picks in this draft. One of Jones/Mackinnon/Drouin would be huge for the future of this team. And knowing this group we have dressed up then a top 3 pick is pretty much locked up. Remember TTC, why do we fall? So we can get back up.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by fotze

Something is buggered when this is the only sure way to acquire a franchise player.

It's not even a sure thing at that. Any of these players can bust. I think it's a bigger possibility than people realize (or want to admit).

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

It's not even a sure thing at that. Any of these players can bust. I think it's a bigger possibility than people realize (or want to admit).

You mean draft picks don't always turn into NHL players?

*looks at Flames draft history, cries.


Based on our scouting skills, I don't blame Sutter for trading all our picks for aging vets, at least that way we get a bonafide NHLer.

[Cowperson]

Originally Posted by fotze

Something is buggered when this is the only sure way to acquire a franchise player.

I wouldn't say its a sure thing.

Use the NHL's Way Back Machine at this link to see what the top three in any draft year has looked like in hindsight, starting maybe in 2010 or 2009: http://www.nhl.com/ice/draftstats.htm

The draft is merely the method most likely to succeed versus other methods of securing a franchise player.

The intent of the draft has always been that of trying to reward the weak.

This team really has to deliver on securing a new John Tavares in the 2013 draft.

Cowperson

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by fotze

Something is buggered when this is the only sure way to acquire a franchise player.

Anaheim's two franchise players were both selected in the last half of the 1st round. I don't think you'll ever select a Crosby or a Mario without coming in last, but the next level down is done all the time. Not by us, but done all the time.

[FlamesAddiction]

Just looking back using hockeydb, it looks like most drafts have at least one player picked in the top 5 that is average, and many that don't pan out at all. (For this discussion, I would consider an average player picked in the top 5 as a bust).

Just a rough estimate, but I would say that there is probably a 10-20% chance that a top 5 pick does not turn into a star, and of course, a much smaller chance that player becomes a superstar.


The thing that separates the good teams is not their first rounders, but how they do outside the first round. Something that scares me is that even though the 1st and 2nd overall picks have a better chance than the rest, with no real concensus player going 1st, it makes me think the statisitcal "bust" could end up anywhere in that top 5.

[return to the red]

This organisation has sought a #1 C for so many years and now the potential is there and many want a D man? I don't get it

[moon]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Anaheim's two franchise players were both selected in the last half of the 1st round. I don't think you'll ever select a Crosby or a Mario without coming in last, but the next level down is done all the time. Not by us, but done all the time.

They were selected in the last half of the first round in the deepest draft ever. I am sure there are others selected in the last half of the first round but they are fairly rare. Using the 2003 draft can be a bit tricky because it is unlikely that other drafts will ever produce that much talent in the 1st (and 2nd) round again.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by return to the red

This organisation has sought a #1 C for so many years and now the potential is there and many want a D man? I don't get it

The Flames needed a #1C in those years because they had an elite winger, an alleged #1 d man (Young Regehr/Phaneuf/Bouwmeester) and a top goalie. They have none of those things now... so you take the best player available.

[Ozy_Flame]

You take your high draft pick and draft a #1 C . . . . Those types of players are extremely hard to come across, especially if they pan out to the elite level. This is why I'm hoping Mackinnon is a Flame come July. Jones can suck it unless we get another top 3 pick.

[Poe969]

100% agree. #1 centers don't come around often. Elite wingers, defensmen and even goalies are all more common. Look at this deadline day; Gaborik and JayBow were both traded but when is the last time an elite center was traded?