So what does our Future look like?

[blankall]

Originally Posted by moon

This is such a terrifying thought but these guys are probably so shortsighted that they think this is a good way to go.

It's not all that bad. What this team is missing is a steady stream of young talent in with the vets. The retool addresses that.

[moon]

Originally Posted by blankall

It's not all that bad. What this team is missing is a steady stream of young talent in with the vets. The retool addresses that.

This team is horribly set up for a re-tool because we don't have young guys ready to step up into the top roles and the vets we have aren't very good.

So we are left not trading our best assets for quality (Bouwmeester, Kipper) or trading them and having nobody to play on a legit top line or a legit top 4 defense.

A core around #1 pick, Cammy, Tanguay, Hudler, Backlund, Wideman sucks. That is likely as bad a core as you would have in the NHL. Addind a mediocre FA isn't doing much to improve that.

This team needs huge changes to get the kind of elite level core that successful teams have.

A team like SJ that has youngish players like Burns, Couture, Pavelski, Niemi and a lot of valuable older pieces Boyle, Thornton, Marleau could do a re-tool and turn it around fast with a few key pieces.

A re-tool is likely worse than staying the course as it gives the management a stupid idea that they are doing something while delaying the inevitable and wasting years of young guys careers.

[genetic_phreek]

I think our future looks bleak. Look at our team in Abby, development stinks. We can't score goals in our farm system yet we have guys that were offensively successful coming out of juniors. I know offense doesn't necessarily transfer to the NHL, but if it doesn't transfer to the AHL then I feel there's a disconnect somewhere in between.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by genetic_phreek

I think our future looks bleak. Look at our team in Abby, development stinks. We can't score goals in our farm system yet we have guys that were offensively successful coming out of juniors. I know offense doesn't necessarily transfer to the NHL, but if it doesn't transfer to the AHL then I feel there's a disconnect somewhere in between.

How many guys do we have in Abby that are expected to become top two line NHLers?

The answer to that question tells us why Abby isn't scoring very much.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

How many guys do we have in Abby that are expected to become top two line NHLers?

The answer to that question tells us why Abby isn't scoring very much.

There's a reason why Paul Byron went from being a 0.8 points/game scorer with the Portland Pirates to half that with the Heat.

Lots of changes to be made in every part of this organization.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

There's a reason why Paul Byron went from being a 0.8 points/game scorer with the Portland Pirates to half that with the Heat.

Probably several reasons. He has had injury problems here. And he's playing with less talent in Abby.

Abbotsford's offense looked fine until they lost Brodie.

I'm not sure why people look past the lack of offensive talent on the team for other mysterious reasons. Teams do not coach to not score. Lack of scoring usually correlates with lack of talent. When has a coach ever asked his players to score less?

This whole bashing Ward and farm team for its lack of talent is way overblown on this board. Its as simple as the farm team not having a lot of scoring.

[genetic_phreek]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Probably several reasons. He has had injury problems here. And he's playing with less talent in Abby.

Abbotsford's offense looked fine until they lost Brodie.

I'm not sure why people look past the lack of offensive talent on the team for other mysterious reasons. Teams do not coach to not score. Lack of scoring usually correlates with lack of talent. When has a coach ever asked his players to score less?

This whole bashing Ward and farm team for its lack of talent is way overblown on this board. Its as simple as the farm team not having a lot of scoring.

I disagree 100% with you. Even at the NHL level, teams that have talented scorers have a tough time when you play a system that emphasizes defense first. Abbotsford's offense did not look fine even with Brodie. We can't keep defending the fact that we have no talent in Abby or even on the Flames. Defensive coaches always have the philosophy that you take care of defense first and offense will take care of itself. That's not coaching to score.

[drPepper1]

Flames will go as far as Kipper can carry them next season, I don't think he retires. Still has more years to give.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by genetic_phreek

I disagree 100% with you. Even at the NHL level, teams that have talented scorers have a tough time when you play a system that emphasizes defense first. Abbotsford's offense did not look fine even with Brodie. We can't keep defending the fact that we have no talent in Abby or even on the Flames. Defensive coaches always have the philosophy that you take care of defense first and offense will take care of itself. That's not coaching to score.

And I'll disagree 100% with you.

What coaches don't teach defense? Almost every successful coach has to emphasize defense both at the NHL level and at the AHL level.

Occam's razor here. Instead of acknowledging we have a lack of talent in the minors people somehow believe Ward coaches anti-offense. It's a ridiculous assertion. Pretty easy to see we don't have a lot of offensive skill in Abby. Believing that Ward inhibits offense and that we actually have a ton of talent in Abby which we could unleash with a new coach is a nice fairy tale IMO.

[genetic_phreek]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

And I'll disagree 100% with you.

What coaches don't teach defense? Almost every successful coach has to emphasize defense both at the NHL level and at the AHL level.

Occam's razor here. Instead of acknowledging we have a lack of talent in the minors people somehow believe Ward coaches anti-offense. It's a ridiculous assertion. Pretty easy to see we don't have a lot of offensive skill in Abby. Believing that Ward inhibits offense and that we actually have a ton of talent in Abby which we could unleash with a new coach is a nice fairy tale IMO.

I'm not saying coaches are "anti-offense". It's totally different if you coach to win vs coaching not to lose. Results speak for itself. You have Junior players that have success with offense and come to Abbotsford and lose their offensive talents? These kids are playing with some veterans but they are also playing against some of the same competition that they faced in Juniors.

[Hammertime]

This thread makes me even more depressed. We're pinning all our hopes in icing a competitive team if all of our better prospects become legitimate NHLers. Keep in mind that even Jankowski, Gaudreau and Sven (and to some degree even Backlund) aren't sure shots to be top 6 regulars.. if even one of them makes it put up Langkow career numbers, that's a win.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Don't really see Gaudreau and Jankowski as 3rd liners. Doubt Bouwmeester will be here in 3 years.

It becomes a different king of third line. Instead of a checking energy line it is your young rookie line. I dont think Jankowski will be a top two center as a rookie so he either becomes a winger for the first year or the 3rd line center. As long as guys like Gaudreau and jankowski have skill around them it really doesnt matter where they play but to expect in 3 years for jankowski to be playing 20 minutes a night against top 6 is lofty expectations. I hope your right but I think if he can start on the 3rd and move up throughout his elc we will be in good shape.

I think the checking third line only exists because outside of rookies it would cost too much to put skill on it.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by genetic_phreek

I'm not saying coaches are "anti-offense". It's totally different if you coach to win vs coaching not to lose. Results speak for itself. You have Junior players that have success with offense and come to Abbotsford and lose their offensive talents? These kids are playing with some veterans but they are also playing against some of the same competition that they faced in Juniors.

Not all successful junior players excel in pro hockey. Plenty of high scoring juniors fail to achieve success in pro hockey right away or ever. Especially ones who come into camp out of shape (see Howse and Ferland.)

Not really sure who these high scoring juniors are that you think should have achieved great success in the minors are. Baertschi, Brodie and Horak are our best prospects who played down there and also have had offensive success there. Nemisz has had offensive success there (led the team in scoring one year) but struggled this year with injuries. Reinhart is a rookie pro and has played much better in the 2nd half of his rookie season by all accounts. I'd expect more scoring out of him in his 2nd pro season. Howse and Ferland have had highly publicized fitness issues that prevented their success.

So who are these high scoring guys you think should be ripping it up? Wahl? Cameron? Those guys just aren't great prospects it turns out.

Abbottsford at the moment doesn't have many high end guys who are top two line NHL prospects or league leading minor league scorers. That's the reality.

[Duke43]

I notice no reference to Curtis G in this grouping. The guy has been one of the better players some nights, other nights he must be thinking about whether or not he forgot to shut the corral gate around his cattle. He has the last two years been one of our most consistent goal producers and unless Cervenka gets his guns firing more frequently, we likely would take a team production hit if we let him go. Curtis is not going to get us a first, and why would you want to trade him for someone that may not have the output potential. Thing with Cervenka is he is a 50/50 chance to try and latch on wherever Jagr signs for the next year.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

What I expect we'll probably see in about 4 years:

Baertschi - Backlund - UFA
UFA/Trade - 1st rnd '13 - Re-tread Iginla
Glencross - Jankowski - 1st rnd '14
Arnold - - Bouma - Scrub

Giordano - UFA
Wideman - Brodie
Breen - Butler

Shooter tutor
Gillies/Ortio

This team will be about as bad as the Oilers are now.

As you can see, I think it will take many years to find a franchise goalie to replace Kipper, and in the meantime we will see the same stunning success we've seen in net, outside of Kipper, since Vernon left.

I think Gaudreau is too small to make it in the show. If he does, he will likely follow a trajectory like Marty St Louis, who didn't break 40 pts until he was 27 years old.

Jankowski was the most 'raw' prospect (and youngest, IIRC), and came from the lowest league, of anyone taken in the 1st round. Which means if he's ever going to be a top-6 NHLer (a Big 'if') he has a very, very long journey. I expect another 6 years or so, something like 2 college, 2 AHL, and 2 sheltered NHL (but he'll still only be 24).

But this team will probably suck in four years because:
1) Defencemen usually take until at least 25 years old before they get good
2) The only solid Flames prospect who will hit that stride in the next 4 years is Breen
3) Other than Baertschi, the only prospects with projected top-6 ceilings are all off-the-board picks who have huge obstacles to overcome.
4) Michael Backlund may be the best centre on this team. I figure he'll be comparable to Kesler (minus the diving), but not a "True Number 1 Centre".
5) Elite centres are very hard to get. And even if the Flames draft one in 2013, 4 years from now he will still only be 21-ish.

BACKCHECK!!!'s Key to Victory:
Do whatever it takes to acquire a new franchise goalie ASAP.

[ThatOneFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

What I expect we'll probably see in about 4 years:

Baertschi - Backlund - UFA
UFA/Trade - 1st rnd '13 - Re-tread Iginla
Glencross - Jankowski - 1st rnd '14
Arnold - - Bouma - Scrub

Giordano - UFA
Wideman - Brodie
Breen - Butler

Shooter tutor
Gillies/Ortio

As you can see, I think it will take many years to find a franchise goalie to replace Kipper, and in the meantime we will see the same stunning success we've seen in net, outside of Kipper, since Vernon left.


BACKCHECK!!!'s Key to Victory:
Do whatever it takes to acquire a new franchise goalie ASAP.

Ramo? Brossoit?

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Originally Posted by ThatOneFlamesFan

Ramo? Brossoit?

Exactly.

Two question marks.

Change those to guys with exclaimation marks, and I'm listening.

[getbak]

Gillies!!!

[blankall]

Originally Posted by moon

This team is horribly set up for a re-tool because we don't have young guys ready to step up into the top roles and the vets we have aren't very good.

So we are left not trading our best assets for quality (Bouwmeester, Kipper) or trading them and having nobody to play on a legit top line or a legit top 4 defense.

A core around #1 pick, Cammy, Tanguay, Hudler, Backlund, Wideman sucks. That is likely as bad a core as you would have in the NHL. Addind a mediocre FA isn't doing much to improve that.

This team needs huge changes to get the kind of elite level core that successful teams have.

A team like SJ that has youngish players like Burns, Couture, Pavelski, Niemi and a lot of valuable older pieces Boyle, Thornton, Marleau could do a re-tool and turn it around fast with a few key pieces.

A re-tool is likely worse than staying the course as it gives the management a stupid idea that they are doing something while delaying the inevitable and wasting years of young guys careers.

What the Flames have been missing is the 2-3 young guys coming up through the system. This year's Flames with even a fully developed Baertschi and Backlund would have been an entirely different team.

Basically, we'll follow a rebuild more similar to Toronto, Ottawa, or Montreal, than Edmonton. The team will try for success but not be commited to it for the next few years. The team will focus on asset management and player developement, as oppossed to tearing it down and building back up from scratch.

[MoreDrank]

Originally Posted by drPepper1

4 more years being the young guns, $5 nose bleed tickets again, Flames will get dropped by sportsnet, and be back on channel 7. (not all games being broadcasted on tv)

Wikipedia tells me that the Young Guns team finished 12th in 1999-2000 and 11th in 2000-2001, 11th 2001-2002, and 12th 2002-2003. Just more of the same really.