Justin Trudeau running for Liberal leadership

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Zulu29

I actually don't think it's going to be as hard as you think it is to beat Harper. He's given the NDP and Liberals gobs of ammunition over his reign and I think people are sick of the lies and scandals.

I think its going to be very tough, in a ammo versus ammo battle, Trudeau and Mulcair have done some good damage to themselves. While there have been scandals and issues with the Conservatives they don't seem to have lasting power for some reason.

The big dependant is on whether the Cons can balance the budget by the next election, that's the 11,000 pound grape ape in the room

[Senator Clay Davis]

While I certainly think the CPC can win the next election, I really doubt they'll get another majority. If they win I'd guess they're back in the 130 seat range.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

The big dependant is on whether the Cons can balance the budget by the next election, that's the 11,000 pound grape ape in the room

Not a snowflakes chance in hell of that happening... short of them using Enron accounting principles. Balancing the budget will require them to either raise revenue (AKA Raise Taxes) or significantly cut spending... natural economic growth won't do it. As taxes are the only thing they're still remotely conservative about them I doubt we're going to see them raise taxes and this gang of politico's has never seen a public dollar that it couldn't spend on a giant ribbon, novalty scissors and Action Plan TV ads.

[CaptainCrunch]

Right now I think they still get a majority, I don't think it will be as big and will represent Stephen Harper's last campaign so I would expect that they will pull out all of the stops to get that majority, then blow up the party and rebuild

[Zulu29]

If Harper would have left the GST alone we'd be in far better shape financially. You're right CC, if the Cons can somehow balance the budget they'll be good but like Parallex said there is no way in hell that's happening. They've already gutted the public service, slashed military spending, slashed benefits to federal employees. They've done stimulus. There are just no bullets left in the gun.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

While I certainly think the CPC can win the next election, I really doubt they'll get another majority. If they win I'd guess they're back in the 130 seat range.

That would be my guess as well. Conservative Minority Government with the Liberal Party back as the official opposition (although after redistribution I think the Minority is more in the 140 seat range). Harper sticks around long enough to take care of a few legacy projects and pass a budget and then retires as Prime Minister. I definetly sense some fatigue in the brand.

Originally Posted by Zulu29

There are just no bullets left in the gun.

They'll try to use invisible bullets again just like last election. They'll roll out a whole whack of promises that they say they will enact and pay for with post-deficit revenue. Of course everyone else will just point out that they said that last time and the deficit is still here.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Zulu29

If Harper would have left the GST alone we'd be in far better shape financially. You're right CC, if the Cons can somehow balance the budget they'll be good but like Parallex said there is no way in hell that's happening. They've already gutted the public service, slashed military spending, slashed benefits to federal employees. They've done stimulus. There are just no bullets left in the gun.

Don't disagree,I'm just merely stating that a majority is strongly conditional on the budget.

I also think that we are going to see a lot of floor crossing in the final year of government as NDP Quebec members jump to the Bloc banner.

Its going to be very interesting, I think Federalism won over in the last election, but we're about to lose that.

[Daradon]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Right now I think they still get a majority, I don't think it will be as big and will represent Stephen Harper's last campaign so I would expect that they will pull out all of the stops to get that majority, then blow up the party and rebuild

Any thoughts on who might replace Harper? Flaherty? MacKay?

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Daradon

Any thoughts on who might replace Harper? Flaherty? MacKay?

Perhaps Kenney.

[Daradon]

I think they've been using him less and less, I think he's a bit to far right to really capture the attentions of the voters, and I think the party knows that.

[CaptainCrunch]

I doubt that Flaherty makes a run for the leadership spot, besides having some health issues, he's not really photogenic and lacks charm.

McKay would be a decent candidate who did a great job with national defense except for the F-35 case, but his star has fallen.

Kenney has been very good in the immigration role, and has gained a lot of immigrant votes for the party. However the smart thing for Harper to do would have been to move him to the aboriginal file.

Like the Libs, the Cons don't have a great stable of up and comers.

[FlamesAddiction]

I don't sense people are that fed up enough that Canadians will want to change the government yet. Canadians tend to be very tolerant of bad politicians or scandals and it usually has to get pretty bad before they want change.

While I do see some of the negatives associated with the previous Liberal governments surfacing in the Conservatives, I don't think it has gotten to the boil over point yet. It will though... it always does.

[GP_Matt]

Originally Posted by Daradon

Any thoughts on who might replace Harper? Flaherty? MacKay?

Assuming that he steps down after the next election in 2015, say in 2017 and assuming that by that time Alberta is in a full boom with resource revenue coming out of our ears and everyone in the province happy, I can see Alison Redford running for federal leadership.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

Assuming that he steps down after the next election in 2015, say in 2017 and assuming that by that time Alberta is in a full boom with resource revenue coming out of our ears and everyone in the province happy, I can see Alison Redford running for federal leadership.

Oh good god no, she couldn't run a dairy queen let alone a province or a federal party

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

Assuming that he steps down after the next election in 2015, say in 2017 and assuming that by that time Alberta is in a full boom with resource revenue coming out of our ears and everyone in the province happy, I can see Alison Redford running for federal leadership.

After running Alberta into debt and losing the next provincial election I doubt we will be hearing much of Nanny Redford at all.

[CaptainCrunch]

She'll take out a 50 million dollar loan to write her memoirs, "My life as an enourmous boob"

Then fade from public eyes

Hopefully

She doesn't have the brains or the thick skin to survive in a Federal Election, she'd be all twitchy and vein pulsey angry

[killer_carlson]

Jim prentice

[SebC]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

Jim prentice

Oh hell no.

(I still detest him for his awful copyright bill. I want my Ministers of Industry promoting innovation, not stifling it.)

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Zulu29

I actually don't think it's going to be as hard as you think it is to beat Harper. He's given the NDP and Liberals gobs of ammunition over his reign and I think people are sick of the lies and scandals.

Really though the liberals downfall was their blatant scandals involving millions of dollars of taxpayer money. That is why they have been out of power for almost a decade. You want to piss off taxpayers the best way to go about it is to get caught with your hands in the taxpayer cookie jar and the Liberals did numerous times. Harper's government has avoided this type of major money scandal and for the most part I simply don't see a massive national uprising to get them out.

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Really though the liberals downfall was their blatant scandals involving millions of dollars of taxpayer money. That is why they have been out of power for almost a decade. You want to piss off taxpayers the best way to go about it is to get caught with your hands in the taxpayer cookie jar and the Liberals did numerous times. Harper's government has avoided this type of major money scandal and for the most part I simply don't see a massive national uprising to get them out.

Unfortunately history shows us it's usually only a matter of time until corruption becomes commonplace when one party holds power for a continued period.

I don't think the current CPC would be immune to this either, so it would be nice to see a credible opposition before we are faced with the same position as the end of the last Liberal reign.