Justin Trudeau running for Liberal leadership

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

I totally disagree. I think the Liberal Party could be quite effective in reclaiming the center by focusing on fiscally conservative policies. As we have seen the current CPC really hasn't been able to claim any right to the fiscally responsible portion of the political spectrum... just the best option of those available.

Maybe, but if they drift right they risk losing ground to the NDP on their left flank. Doesn't really matter anyway, They probably won't be shifting right under Trudeau.

[Zarley]

Originally Posted by Slava

The mere fact that this is a group of pure Wildrose/CPC supporters saying he should've stuck it out basically tells me he made the right decision. I happen to like Garneau, and other candidates ahead of Justin, but rank and file CPC supporters saying that because its Trudeau who will win is what is going to have them vote Harper again is hilarious.

Oh please. If the Liberals hope to win a majority government again they are going to need to convince people who voted Conservative last time to vote for them. They certainly didn't get trounced in the last election because they weren't left wing enough, they lost because they've ceded the centre-right to the Tories.

[bizaro86]

Canada has almost always been governed by whatever party controls the centre. This is certainly true now, as the liberals and conservatives have both moved left, the conservatives have taken the centre.

[transplant99]

LOL......Slava I have to give you credit....working in a WRA angle into a Federal Liberal leadership thread....awesome.

As to the topic, I doubt Garneau would have swayed me to vote Lib but I sure wanted to hear what he had to say. Trudeau may finally be the straw that breaks the back of the Libs though and forces them to merge with the NDP.....after leading them off the proverbial cliff. Dude is no where near ready for the position.

[OffsideSpecialist]

I am incredibly disappointed in this news. I do not like Mulcair and some of the Conservatives' recent social policies have left a sour taste in my mouth, so I was looking forward to having a credible man with plenty of real world experience potentially leading the Liberals. I couldn't think of a better politician for science and innovation in this country, so it is really too bad that he dropped out. I am not a fan of Trudeau, so I will have to make a tough choice in the next election.

Also, I can't see the Liberals and NDP merging as they are so fundamentally different. I wouldn't be surprised to see as many, if not more, Liberals defect to the Conservatives while holding their noses rather than go with the NDP. Although the Liberals have moved too close to the NDP recently, I think that they do have the ability to move away from what Dion and Ignatieff have done and regain some of their core support.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Canada has almost always been governed by whatever party controls the centre. This is certainly true now, as the liberals and conservatives have both moved left, the conservatives have taken the centre.

That is certainly not true, as the conservatives were only voted for by the rightmost 40% of Canadians.

[killer_carlson]

Any talks of a Trudeau led merger with the NDP would be a tremendous concern. I would hope there would be very detailed analysis on what that would look like for Alberta, by Albertans.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Why would the Liberals merge with the NDP now, when every poll suggests them with Trudeau as leader would take votes away from the NDP base anyways?

[GP_Matt]

Originally Posted by SebC

That is certainly not true, as the conservatives were only voted for by the rightmost 40% of Canadians.

Do you really believe that we can line up all Canadians in a row and order them from left to right and get the political spectrum?

What about the people who are socially liberal and fiscally conservative, would they be left or right of someone who is socially conservative and fiscally liberal?

People don't just see where they stand on a linear spectrum and vote accordingly, they weigh several issues and decide which is the most important.

As for the last election, 39% of the population didn't vote. If 25% of them didn't vote because they wanted a more socially conservative government that puts them on the right of the Conservatives. Then there is the Bolc, they received 6 percent of the vote. Is it possible that of those 6%, 25% of them are right leaning but vote for the Bloc because separating is more important to them than fiscal policies?
If these things are possible, then all of a sudden Harper has the so called median voter. That one guy in the middle who alone can give legitimacy to the elected government.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by SebC

That is certainly not true, as the conservatives were only voted for by the rightmost 40% of Canadians.

you keep saying that when its just a guess on your part based on wacky political theory.

Are you saying that the Liberal seats that the Conservatives won and the seats in Urban Ontario that traditionally voted liberal suddenly radically shifted right.

I like you Seb as a poster, but I think in this case your entirely all wet.

The Conservatives have pretty much squatted on the center/center right on the voting scale.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

Any talks of a Trudeau led merger with the NDP would be a tremendous concern. I would hope there would be very detailed analysis on what that would look like for Alberta, by Albertans.

The NDP wouldn't consider it unless it meant the end of the Liberal Party as an entity.

Layton hated the Liberal's more then he hated the Cons and Mulcair is even more virulent in his hatred of the Libs. The NDP are pretty much in the drivers seat and would only agree to a merger if the NDP held the power in that agreement which would mean that Mulcair would head up the party with key NDP'ers in the shadow cabinet.

There's no point in the NDP considering a merge and the Liberals are not the big red machine anymore.

Any fantasy that the Libs have that a merger would allow the Lib brand to remain strong is delusional.

Even under a don't compete against each other strategy the Liberal's would lose in that agreement too based on NDP seat strength.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

Do you really believe that we can line up all Canadians in a row and order them from left to right and get the political spectrum?

Not perfectly, but given that there is only one right-wing party in Canada, it's close enough that the nuances don't invalidate the conclusion.

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

As for the last election, 39% of the population didn't vote. If 25% of them didn't vote because they wanted a more socially conservative government that puts them on the right of the Conservatives.

Non-voters don't count. (Pun intended.)

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by SebC

but given that there is only one right-wing party in Canada

The Christian Heritage Party?

Because "biggest deficits in Canadian history" and "small talk, no action on social issues" governing record that the Tories have accumulated regardless of parliamentary strength doesn't really scream Right-Wing. Not in the sense that the small "c" conservative movement, predominantly in the U.S., have used the term anyways.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Parallex

The Christian Heritage Party?

Their 0.13% of the popular vote is negligible for the purposes of determining the where the political centre is in Canada.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by SebC

Their 0.13% of the popular vote is negligible for the purposes of determining the where the political centre is in Canada.

The political center in canada is now where the CPC find themselves...the Liberals, at this point are further left of center than the CPC is right of center. Trudeau will only move them further away IMO.

[Zulu29]

Originally Posted by transplant99

The political center in canada is now where the CPC find themselves...the Liberals, at this point are further left of center than the CPC is right of center. Trudeau will only move them further away IMO.

Which is kind of ironic because I can see a new "reform" party breaking off of the current Conservative party much like the old PC's because they aren't right wing enough.

[jammies]

There is no such thing as the "political centre". You cannot successfully reduce complex philosophies down to a single-dimensional value. That's how the Conservatives get away with not being all that "conservative", because it's so vague that you can spin anyone short of Stalin as being one.

Move away from using these kinds of useless shortcuts and use descriptions and explain stances on issues instead. Although that would make it harder to pick sides from which to cast accusations, so I suppose that will almost certainly never happen. "Mulcair wants to make these amendments to the Clarity Act with which I do not agree!" is not nearly as catchy as "NDP = communism!"

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Zulu29

Which is kind of ironic because I can see a new "reform" party breaking off of the current Conservative party much like the old PC's because they aren't right wing enough.

I doubt it will happen. Harper is staying just enough to the right to keep the troops in line.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Zulu29

Which is kind of ironic because I can see a new "reform" party breaking off of the current Conservative party much like the old PC's because they aren't right wing enough.

I don't see that happening, especially with Harper running things. He's pretty much quelled the more radical elements of his party and you don't hear a whole lot of them anymore, and when you do the moderate elements of the Conservatives quash any motion.

Plus everyone loves a winner, and the Conservatives have become a pretty well oiled machine politically in terms of how they handled fund raising and elections.

Its going to take a very strong leader and a very organized and all for one party to knock the Conservatives off right now and Justin Trudeau is not that leader, and the Liberals' are pretty much not that party right now. that could change. But if I'm a betting man, Trudeau gets ripped to shreds in the next election and falls apart under pressure when things don't go his way inthe next election.

[Zulu29]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I don't see that happening, especially with Harper running things. He's pretty much quelled the more radical elements of his party and you don't hear a whole lot of them anymore, and when you do the moderate elements of the Conservatives quash any motion.

Plus everyone loves a winner, and the Conservatives have become a pretty well oiled machine politically in terms of how they handled fund raising and elections.

Its going to take a very strong leader and a very organized and all for one party to knock the Conservatives off right now and Justin Trudeau is not that leader, and the Liberals' are pretty much not that party right now. that could change. But if I'm a betting man, Trudeau gets ripped to shreds in the next election and falls apart under pressure when things don't go his way inthe next election.

I actually don't think it's going to be as hard as you think it is to beat Harper. He's given the NDP and Liberals gobs of ammunition over his reign and I think people are sick of the lies and scandals.