Patience. Or: the Importance of the Entry Draft in today's NHL

[Enoch Root]

total crapshoot

however, if team A averages 9 picks a year and team B averages 7, I like team A's chances, longterm

[moon]

Originally Posted by Steve Bozek

Is there any other team in the NHL (besides the Flames) that has traded away or given up on 2 future Hart Trophy winners?

Edmonton- Messsier with the Rangers and Gretzky with Kings.

Not sure about the older guys back in the pre-50's.

[CliffFletcher]

Every team has several young players as good or better than Baertschi, Backlund, and Brodie. They're only impressive compared to the kind of prospects the Flames have had in the last 5-10 years.

But we're not competing against the Flames of Christmas Past - we're competing against the other franchises in today's NHL. We need an edge on them, a way to stack the deck. because not only do we need to draft better than them, we need to make up for the gaping chest-wound that is our 22-28 year old talent. And the way you stack the deck is by acquiring more and higher picks.

[slybomb]

Obviously drafting is a priority responsibilty that should not be overlooked. You just don't want to dump all your vets for picks...then you end up like Edmonton which would be very embarrassing. I think that since Feaster has taken over our drafting has taken a priority seat and their initiative to draft hockey sense type players will pay off in a few years. When they are ready to make the jump it will be critical to have good vets like tangs and iggy there to show them the ropes and play a support role.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

If that established player is a center who just turned 22 and has shown what O'Reilly has, sure.

There's a huge difference between giving up a player like Gormley or Tarasenko for a couple years of a 30+ year old Jokinen than there is giving up a first round pick for a 22 year old O'Reilly.

Losing a 1st in the Jokinen trade, a 2nd in the Regehr trade, another 2nd in the Cammalleri trade, and just givng anything for Modin probably ends up negatively impacting the future of the Flames as the trades were made with the present in mind. Of course there's a chance all of the draft picks in the what-if world would have been busts and there's other players like Ramo and Byron at play but likely those trades didn't help the future of the Flames 5 years down the road.

O'Reilly is different, that's a player that could be a building block of a franchise for the next decade (although I disagree with Feaster calling him a franchise player).

I'm not sure anything about the O'Reilly situation in Colorado suggests he would be around for longer than his current 2 years, he is obviously quite keen on getting every penny he can out of which ever club signs him (can't blame him but not a great 'building block' in a lowering cap world).

If you are signing a young player from another organisation to some degree you are exchanging the uncertainty of the skill level of a pick for the uncertainty of problems with signing and keeping them or issues 'in the room'.

[Steve Bozek]

Originally Posted by moon

Edmonton- Messsier with the Rangers and Gretzky with Kings.

Not sure about the older guys back in the pre-50's.

You're right, but I really was wondering if any other team had traded away two future Hart Trophy winners, i.e. before they won their first Hart Trophy.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by Weiser Wonder

So, your argument that ROR should not have been signed because he's not the Flames draft pick isn't sound.

that was never my point, I couldn't care less that he's not a Flames pick. My point was that you should always trade from a position of strengths, but for the Flames, draft picks are definitely not an area where they have a fortune to trade from. There also seems to be a notion on this board that ROR is better than everyone from the upcoming draft who is not named MacKinnon, Jones, Drouin or Barkov. I disagree, this is a very deep draft. ROR himself was a 2nd round pick who had 16 goals and 66 points in 67 OHL games in his draft year ... good, but not overly impressive. There are guys in the upcoming draft that have at least the same potential, also at the center position. Monahan and Lindholm look really good, and a guy like Frederik Gauthier (a playmaking center, 6'4 and 220, with 19 goals and 57 points in 56 games) can probably be had at around 15. There are guys in this draft that can be just a cornerstone like ROR would be, only 3 years younger. ROR may be older and proven in the NHL, but he'll also be very expensive very soon.

Originally Posted by Northendzone

To me this continues to validate that no matter what, the draft is a crapshoot.....even if you are drafting first overall.

obviously, there's always an element of luck involved - and that's not surprising, given that it's only 18-year-old boys we're talking about. Some of them show glimpses of being a future star at a young age, but never get there. Some of them appear to be pretty "meh", only to develop into superstars later. You almost never have a guarantee that those players will really live up to the expectations, but having more picks equals a higher chance to land a home-run. Sutter believed too much in quantity though, constantly trading down didn't help. Oh, and 2012 was the first Flames draft since 2003 where they had a pick in every round ... that tells you everything you need to know. The Flames need to stockpile draft picks and take the draft more seriously.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

I'm not sure anything about the O'Reilly situation in Colorado suggests he would be around for longer than his current 2 years, he is obviously quite keen on getting every penny he can out of which ever club signs him (can't blame him but not a great 'building block' in a lowering cap world).

If you are signing a young player from another organisation to some degree you are exchanging the uncertainty of the skill level of a pick for the uncertainty of problems with signing and keeping them or issues 'in the room'.

Fair enough, I've given O'Reilly the benefit of the doubt because it's not the first time Colorado has played hardball with regards to their RFA's. And the offer sheet is designed that only a borderline absurd offer has the chance of working. But sure, with regards to O'Reilly there was an added risk especially given the 6.5M QO that would be required, but it' not like draft picks don't come with that same risk (see: Erixon, Turris and well, O'Reilly), and that's only if they work out at all.

And a bit of a side but the fact that Colorado was willing to pay O'Reilly 2.5M upfront, a couple 100G's in salary this year and then 6.5M next year, works out to be nearly 10M for him over the course of the contract. The reported 3.5M for 2 years that was on the table from the Avalanche works out to be about half that as he would only get about 1.5M this year depending on the actual salary structure. If the offer on the table was indeed half what they eventually agreed on (through Feaster), that's on Colorado's management, in my opinion.