Patience. Or: the Importance of the Entry Draft in today's NHL

[kirant]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Lets see what happens with two first rounders in the same year. Try it. Just try it once and see what happens.

Is there another team in the league that hasn't drafted twice in the first round?

Dallas Stars.

To be fair though, they've had bucket loads of 2nds.

[Sakari]

One or two good drafts could turn this organization around COMPLETELY. See the Pittsburgh Penguins, 2005-06, compared to 06-07. This was when Malkin and Crosby were drafted, I believe.

[Pierre "Monster" McGuire]

Originally Posted by fotze

Are the Flames the only team to never draft a franchise player?

Joe Niewundyk?

[Sakari]

Originally Posted by fotze

Are the Flames the only team to never draft a franchise player?

Al Macinnis.. Mike Vernon.. Theo Fleury..

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by fotze

Are the Flames the only team to never draft a franchise player?

they drafted Nieuwendyk

edit: wish I said MacInnis

[Enoch Root]

all picks from the 80s though - time for some new ones

[Sakari]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

all picks from the 80s though - time for some new ones

As much as I love Baertschi I just don't see him being a franchise player. Not sure he'll develop into a first liner under Hartley.

[FlameZilla]

I think what some people need to remember is this: while other teams have had one, if not several, top 5 draft choices in their history, the Calgary Flames have never drafted earlier than 6th overall. Even in the doldrums of the Young Bums era we were only ever bad enough to draft 6th. The scouting and selections in that era was a dreadful mess & I'm sure they could have screwed the pooch if they'd acquired a 1st overall pick, but I feel we've never had a chance to draft a true top-5 marquee player. Imagine a Thornton or Lecavalier instead of a Tkaczuk or Fata.
I like the looks of the drafting philosophy now, but who is to say it pays off? We have promising prospects, but if management chooses to mishandle them & let them stagnate as they have done with countless young players (Irving being the most recent) then we'll never build a contending team. Drafting is the only the first hurdle, nurturing & development is the 2nd & adapting & implementing the players into the team is the 3rd. We are failing at all three hurdles.

[FlameZilla]

All this talk of dealing everyone to hoard picks has me looking at our draft history. Looking at the 1997 draft on hockeydb I remember the Flames brass being excited that we had so many picks (6th overall, three 2nd rounders, a 3rd rounder, two 4th rounders etc). Dan Tkaczuk played 19 NHL games for us and NONE of the other selections played a single game for us. Our drafting has improved, but it's still a huge gamble.

Edit: picks Ryan Ready & Erik Andersson from the 97 draft played a combined NHL 19 games

[Sakari]

Its hilarious to think, that win-percent wise we are one of the best in NHL history. Irving could have been a number one goaltender. I think Baertschi could be the next Jarome Iginla for this organization if, and ONLY IF, he's developed properly. Playing with two goons isn't how you develop someone with so much potential. Honestly, our last two drafts were pretty good. We probably had the best draft picks in 2011 our of the whole league, every single pick is doing fantastic. Hopefully we can get Gaudreau in the lineup soon. Jankowski may actually turn out well. But none of these players are going to be the future Kipper and Iggy. Back in 05 i could see why we still put faith in our core, they were both in their prime. But now they're just not elite. They have a similar trade value to elite players.. so maybe getting some first rounders in this upcoming draft would be a good idea.

[ignite09]

Originally Posted by fotze

Are the Flames the only team to never draft a franchise player?

Did we not draft Al Mcinnis, Theo Fluery, Martin Stlouis(spelling)?

[Frank MetaMusil]

Originally Posted by Sakari

Al Macinnis.. Mike Vernon.. Theo Fleury..

Stillman was their best top 10 pick. Roberts at 12th overall was probably their "best" highest pick.

[Frank MetaMusil]

Originally Posted by ignite09

Did we not draft Al Mcinnis, Theo Fluery, Martin Stlouis(spelling)?

St. Louis was undrafted.

[Steve Bozek]

Originally Posted by ignite09

Did we not draft Al Mcinnis, Theo Fluery, Martin Stlouis(spelling)?

Don't forget Brett Hull

[MacFlame]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Lets see what happens with two first rounders in the same year. Try it. Just try it once and see what happens.

I actually think they're in for a pretty quick turnaround (relatively speaking), if they load up on draft picks this year and next, obviously preferably in the first and second round. Due the age and experience of certain key support players within the Flames organization, IMO, the timing to draft a young franchise centreman (or two), that can play within the next 2 years is now.

I say this because, although the Flames do not have any young franchise players in their system right now, they do have a fairly good mix of young NHL'ers (that will play) that are still good support pieces moving forward:

Brodie, Sven, Bouma, Backlund, Horak

They also have some potential NHL'ers that MAY surprise within the next 2 years:

Gaudreau, Jankowski (maybe 3), Wotherspoon, Sieloff (?), Ramage, Reinhart

They also have some support pieces on the current roster that can help with the transition:

Stajan (yes,Stajan), Wideman, Butler (yes, Butler), Hudler, Stempniak

Due to the age and experience of certain players on this team, namely Backlund, Sven, Stajan, and Horak, the timing, IMO, is perfect to load up on high draft picks that can play within the next 2-3 years.

[Steve Bozek]

Is there any other team in the NHL (besides the Flames) that has traded away or given up on 2 future Hart Trophy winners?

This is not a request to start re-hashing the wisdom, or lack thereof, of getting rid of Hull and St Louis.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

I get that but I have absolutely zero faith in the Flames development. It feels like they could draft the baby of Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux and he'd still turn out to be a putz and not a legitimate star NHL player. So what I'm saying is maybe the de-risking makes sense.

I get where you're coming from, but to have success, you must have success from your development organization, and that can't happen if you don't even try to make it happen.

So basicly, if you don't trust your teams player development, you change it until you do. Not trusting them is really the equivalent of not even trying to win in the long run.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by FlameZilla

All this talk of dealing everyone to hoard picks has me looking at our draft history. Looking at the 1997 draft on hockeydb I remember the Flames brass being excited that we had so many picks (6th overall, three 2nd rounders, a 3rd rounder, two 4th rounders etc). Dan Tkaczuk played 19 NHL games for us and NONE of the other selections played a single game for us. Our drafting has improved, but it's still a huge gamble.

Edit: picks Ryan Ready & Erik Andersson from the 97 draft played a combined NHL 19 games

Drafting is always a gamble - but it is one that can be mitigated. Expand your scouting department, and enhance your development program, and you help increase the odds of getting 'wins'.

As you can see from at least every Stanley Cup champion, you simply can not win the cup if you can't draft well.

Flames have been putting much more of an emphasis on the draft, and also on developing. People still point at the Flames and say "They are never able to draft or develop well", but that is not quite accurate any longer - though only a few more years will really prove it one way or another.

Teams that traditionally don't draft well are teams that traditionally don't make drafting and developing a priority, and don't invest more into those areas. You still end up with 'duds' - some players just don't develop, regardless of how much opportunity you give them (Irving is a good example here - he has had loads of opportunity, but every single time he has experienced a 'challenge', he seems to fail. I don't fault the Flames for Irving. I really don't know what else they could have done to develop him further realistically.).

Some picks do fail. Tkazkuk failed not because of the drafting side, but perhaps through development or just 'bad luck' in injuries. I am not sure what the history was with his concussions (was he rushed back?). Concussions weren't something the league as a whole dealt with well anyways in those days.

Fata was a fairly highly touted prospect as well if memory serves - but it seems scouts were salivating at his speed more than anything else. He really didn't have any hockey sense, and thus didn't really even come close to meeting expectations. Development issue? I think it was poor scouting on him to begin with - much like Daigle (but for different reasons - behavioral assessments weren't really done as much back then as they are now, but the kid definitely had the talent to start with to become a franchise player).

Now you have guys like Kabanov that supposedly had "top 3 skill" in their respective drafts, but fell hard due to their behavioral assessments (and also Russian Factor at times).

Either way, the more a team spends on drafting and development, the more 'good picks' they come away with. There will always be 'duds' - but the frequency with which you end up with NHL players increases as you spend in those areas.

Not sure if anyone wants to take this and really examine it, but I would bet that in any given year, a team will select a higher ratio of NHL players when they have invested more heavily than a team that doesn't. Not even just the number of picks (which helps greatly!), but even just the same number of picks.

The Flames may indeed not be 'quite there' with their program, but at the very least it is moving in the right direction. If the Flames 'blew it up' a few years ago, they would probably have gotten more picks than if they do so now, but I am not convinced they would end up with more NHL players than they would if they decide to do it this year.

Also, some drafts are really strong (either in depth or at the top end). Some are weak. This draft is wonderful at the top end. For a team like Columbus, they should do well (as long as they have increased their scouting department - they haven't done that well drafting in the past either, even with high picks and increased number of picks).

How is Edmonton's scouting department? How does it compare with Calgary's? How does Calgary compare with teams that are thought of as 'good drafting teams' like Detroit or St.Louis? Are they close to those teams, or are they more like the Islanders or Panthers?

In the end, Calgary will always be thought of as a poor drafting and development team until they end up with at least a handful of impact players and more established players in the NHL. I don't hear anything about Edmonton being a good drafting team. I just hear they have some high-end 1st over-all prospects. There is definitely a difference.

I just hope that whenever Calgary decides to rebuild (or is forced into it) that the draft is considered a good draft with franchise players. Flames have made GREAT picks out of poor drafts (the Derek Morris pick was really good, the Nystrom pick was very good - and neither one of those players were thought of highly ever).

At any rate, I hope that things have improved enough that whenever the Flames end up acquiring extra picks, they find themselves in a strong draft.

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by Sakari

Its hilarious to think, that win-percent wise we are one of the best in NHL history. Irving could have been a number one goaltender. I think Baertschi could be the next Jarome Iginla for this organization if, and ONLY IF, he's developed properly. Playing with two goons isn't how you develop someone with so much potential. Honestly, our last two drafts were pretty good. We probably had the best draft picks in 2011 our of the whole league, every single pick is doing fantastic. Hopefully we can get Gaudreau in the lineup soon. Jankowski may actually turn out well. But none of these players are going to be the future Kipper and Iggy. Back in 05 i could see why we still put faith in our core, they were both in their prime. But now they're just not elite. They have a similar trade value to elite players.. so maybe getting some first rounders in this upcoming draft would be a good idea.

My general point is this: we have some good players which can do a good job for us, but none of them are coveted enough to net us a top-10 pick. Some guys, like Cammy, Stempniak or Gio might get us a 2nd rounder each; Iggy might get us a late 1st rounder (because only a contender will be interested in a rental Iggy). Kipper won't get us much because goalies are undervalued these days. The harsh reality is that with these assets we cannot do a conventional rebuild. Our drafting is too sketchy.

The BEST thing we can do is nurture the young talent we have coming through the ranks. We have some great players, but they need to be used properly. Brodie, Backlund, Baertschi need to be shown patience by coaching & management to develop into effective players. Irving & Nemisz should be given another shot in the bigs; if we show patience with them they may emerge from the psychological wilderness they're currently stuck in. If not we should deal them for another organisation's fringe prospects. Horak is an NHL player & would be a young upgrade on centre from within the organisation. Keep the 1st rounder & deal a winger or two for a 2nd round pick(s). Draft better, nurture the talent. That's my 'rebuild'.

[Northendzone]

Originally Posted by devo22

The ten guys are:

- Dustin Brown: 13th overall in 2003
- Anze Kopitar: 11th overall in 2005
- Jonathan Quick: 72nd overall in 2005
- Jonathan Bernier: 11th overall in 2006
- Trevor Lewis: 17th overall in 2006
- Alec Martinez: 95th overall in 2007
- Dwight King: 109th overall in 2007
- Drew Doughty: 2nd overall in 2008
- Slava Voynov: 32nd overall in 2008
- Jordan Nolan: 186th overall in 2009

Scratched were Andrei Loktionov (123rd in 2008) and Kyle Clifford (35th in 2009), so all of their drafted guys that contributed last season were drafted between 2003 and 2009. They messed up 2004 completely though. Over those 7 years, they had 65 picks. The Flames had 53 picks over that span. Keep in mind that 2003 and 2004 still had 9 rounds.

To me this continues to validate that no matter what, the draft is a crapshoot.....even if you are drafting first overall.

62 times, it would appaear that the kings screwed up. Toss Ina couple of lucky home runs with guys selected higher than 60 th....