Playoff Chances

[troutman]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

God, I hate the Oilers.

Not worth hating or thinking about. The Canucks on the other hand . . .

[Stay Golden]

Originally Posted by troutman

Not worth hating or thinking about. The Canucks on the other hand . . .

ya VAN not even the Canucks

[Roof-Daddy]

Here are the current points percentages of the 5-15th place teams in the Western Conference, and their projected point totals if they maintain the same pace for the remainder of the season.

I didn't include the top 4, because I don't see Chicago, Vancouver, St. Louis or Anaheim falling far enough off their current paces in a shortened season to be in any sort of danger of missing the playoffs.



#5 - San Jose (.607) - 58
#6 - Nashville (.594) - 57
#7 - Phoenix (.563) - 54
#8 - Edmonton (.536) - 52
---------------------------
#9 - Minnesota (.533) - 51
#10 - Detroit (.533) - 51
#11 - Dallas (.531) - 51
#12 - Colorado (.464) - 45
#13 - Calgary (.464) - 45
#14 - Los Angeles (.462) - 44
#15 - Columbus (.381) - 37

Looks like roughly an eight horse race for maybe three playoff spots, and the Flames are riding on a donkey.

Good luck beating out well coached perrenial playoff teams like Phoenix, Nashville and Detroit.....as well as the defending Cup champs, who are bound to get their groove going eventually.

Flames required points percentages in remaining games to reach certain point levels:

56 - 43/68 (0.632%)
55 - 42/68 (0.618%)
54 - 41/68 (0.603%)
53 - 40/68 (0.588%)

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Here are the current points percentages of the 5-15th place teams in the Western Conference, and their projected point totals if they maintain the same pace for the remainder of the season.

I didn't include the top 4, because I don't see Chicago, Vancouver, St. Louis or Anaheim falling far enough off their current paces in a shortened season to be in any sort of danger of missing the playoffs.



#5 - San Jose (.607) - 58
#6 - Nashville (.594) - 57
#7 - Phoenix (.563) - 54
#8 - Edmonton (.536) - 52
---------------------------
#9 - Minnesota (.533) - 51
#10 - Detroit (.533) - 51
#11 - Dallas (.531) - 51
#12 - Colorado (.464) - 45
#13 - Calgary (.464) - 45
#14 - Los Angeles (.462) - 44
#15 - Columbus (.381) - 37

Looks like roughly an eight horse race for maybe three playoff spots, and the Flames are riding on a donkey.

Good luck beating out well coached perrenial playoff teams like Phoenix, Nashville and Detroit.....as well as the defending Cup champs, who are bound to get their groove going eventually.

Flames required points percentages in remaining games to reach certain point levels:

56 - 43/68 (0.632%)
55 - 42/68 (0.618%)
54 - 41/68 (0.603%)
53 - 40/68 (0.588%)

So math is telling us this team is not a playoff team. Hmmm.

[Corral]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Here are the current points percentages of the 5-15th place teams in the Western Conference, and their projected point totals if they maintain the same pace for the remainder of the season.

I didn't include the top 4, because I don't see Chicago, Vancouver, St. Louis or Anaheim falling far enough off their current paces in a shortened season to be in any sort of danger of missing the playoffs.



#5 - San Jose (.607) - 58
#6 - Nashville (.594) - 57
#7 - Phoenix (.563) - 54
#8 - Edmonton (.536) - 52
---------------------------
#9 - Minnesota (.533) - 51
#10 - Detroit (.533) - 51
#11 - Dallas (.531) - 51
#12 - Colorado (.464) - 45
#13 - Calgary (.464) - 45
#14 - Los Angeles (.462) - 44
#15 - Columbus (.381) - 37

Looks like roughly an eight horse race for maybe three playoff spots, and the Flames are riding on a donkey.

Good luck beating out well coached perrenial playoff teams like Phoenix, Nashville and Detroit.....as well as the defending Cup champs, who are bound to get their groove going eventually.

Flames required points percentages in remaining games to reach certain point levels:

56 - 43/68 (0.632%)
55 - 42/68 (0.618%)
54 - 41/68 (0.603%)
53 - 40/68 (0.588%)

These numbers simply reflect play to date. In other words, they don't tell us much about what is going to happen next.

the only statistic needed is that in almost every year a playoff team needs 12 points per 10 games. Its as simple as that.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Here are the current points percentages of the 5-15th place teams in the Western Conference, and their projected point totals if they maintain the same pace for the remainder of the season.

I didn't include the top 4, because I don't see Chicago, Vancouver, St. Louis or Anaheim falling far enough off their current paces in a shortened season to be in any sort of danger of missing the playoffs.



#5 - San Jose (.607) - 58
#6 - Nashville (.594) - 57
#7 - Phoenix (.563) - 54
#8 - Edmonton (.536) - 52
---------------------------
#9 - Minnesota (.533) - 51
#10 - Detroit (.533) - 51
#11 - Dallas (.531) - 51
#12 - Colorado (.464) - 45
#13 - Calgary (.464) - 45
#14 - Los Angeles (.462) - 44
#15 - Columbus (.381) - 37

Looks like roughly an eight horse race for maybe three playoff spots, and the Flames are riding on a donkey.

Good luck beating out well coached perrenial playoff teams like Phoenix, Nashville and Detroit.....as well as the defending Cup champs, who are bound to get their groove going eventually.

Flames required points percentages in remaining games to reach certain point levels:

56 - 43/68 (0.632%)
55 - 42/68 (0.618%)
54 - 41/68 (0.603%)
53 - 40/68 (0.588%)

So you're saying there's a chance?

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Corral

These numbers simply reflect play to date. In other words, they don't tell us much about what is going to happen next.

the only statistic needed is that in almost every year a playoff team needs 12 points per 10 games. Its as simple as that.

I bet that at some point during your academic life, you thought 'I can slack off now, I'll just cram extra hard for the final'. I've done that a bunch. Remember what happens?

A slow start is 0-3. Being the 13th place team a third of the way through the year means you aren't a playoff team and will not become one barring massive overhauls of the roster.

[cznTiburon]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

So math is telling us this team is not a playoff team. Hmmm.

Math is telling us what logic should have

[Poe969]

Some of us didn't need math to tell us the Flames won't make the playoffs.

"Actions speak louder than words"

Well the Flames actions on the ice tell us that not only will they not make the playoffs, but they'll win the occasional meaningless game so they finish out of the playoffs and with a middle of the road pick too.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

So you're saying there's a chance?

Barely.

[TurnedTheCorner]

The Flames have yet to pull off a string of games to counter the 1-3-2 start. If they can go 6 or 7 games with only 1 regulation loss, they're in the mix. I remain skeptical.

[bubbsy]

flames are 4 points out of a playoff spot.

flames are 3 points away from being the worst team in the league.

Half glass full, half glass empty??

[StrykerSteve]

Always a bridesmaid, never a bride. Sucks to be a Flames fan. They always play just well enough to keep your interest up, give you a little bit of hope, and always fail to make the dance at the end when it matters. Middle of the pack draft position, here they come.

Sigh.

If you're going to lose, a least be committed to it because this win 1 lose 1 is beyond frustrating.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by TurnedTheCorner

The Flames have yet to pull off a string of games to counter the 1-3-2 start. If they can go 6 or 7 games with only 1 regulation loss, they're in the mix. I remain skeptical.

That is correct. 5 or 6 wins in a row just to get to 8th and then close to a .600 pace after to ensure they keep a playoff spot. Almost impossible for this group. They have mathematical chances but knowing the Flames and knowing what they have to do I would say their chances are slim and none. Only thing we can hope for is that they finish ahead of the Oilers.

[HELPNEEDED]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

That is correct. 5 or 6 wins in a row just to get to 8th and then close to a .600 pace after to ensure they keep a playoff spot. Almost impossible for this group. They have mathematical chances but knowing the Flames and knowing what they have to do I would say their chances are slim and none. Only thing we can hope for is that they finish ahead of the Oilers.

I agree with you completely.

But this team as its annual 5-6 game winning streak, if it comes early it could be huge in this shortened season.

[EddyBeers]

Originally Posted by HELPNEEDED

I agree with you completely.

But this team as its annual 5-6 game winning streak, if it comes early it could be huge in this shortened season.

The next five games would be the games they could go on that streak, and they better because I think they will get spanked bad in the next five games.

[Frank MetaMusil]

Originally Posted by EddyBeers

The next five games would be the games they could go on that streak, and they better because I think they will get spanked bad in the next five games.

But you hope they win, right?

[HELPNEEDED]

Originally Posted by EddyBeers

The next five games would be the games they could go on that streak, and they better because I think they will get spanked bad in the next five games.

But I also think we'll be seeing alot of my avatar iggy over the next 2months.

[EddyBeers]

Originally Posted by Frank MetaMusil

But you hope they win, right?

Sure I do, but I am not counting on it. I would suspect a 4-6 record will be what the Flames get in their next 10 games. Probably 3-2 in the first five to give a little hope, but then they have the Canucks and Sharks at home, then Ducks, Kings, Kings on the road, hard to see them winning more than 1 game in that stretch. But it is hard to see games where the Flames are expected to win this year in general though for me.

[Zulu29]

Playoff chances are between slim and none and slim has one foot out the door. It's not so much because of where they are in the standings, it's that this team has no heart.