Is O&G boom over in Alberta?

[Reaper]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

The reason that 65% of British Columbians are against Northern Gateway isn't because they aren't getting enough financial benefit. It's because they don't want a pipeline running through their territory and oil tankers off their coast, full stop. You may disagree with that, but it's not like sweetening the pot is going to result in big movements of support in BC. Northern Gateway is effectively dead.

Already happening at the port of Vancouver and will be happening even more as the pipeline feeding that terminal is slated to be twinned.

If Northern Gateway doesn't happen I'll eat my proverbial hat.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by Reaper

Already happening at the port of Vancouver and will be happening even more as the pipeline feeding that terminal is slated to be twinned.

If Northern Gateway doesn't happen I'll eat my proverbial hat.

I hope you're hungry.

Either political party that will be in government after May is against NGP. A coalition of 15 coastal First Nations along with 30+ interior First Nations are against it. NGP support is in the 30s in BC. The Joint Review Panel has had 1100 people speak against it and 3 speak for it.

Edit: I should say the biggest stick is wielded by First Nations. They will drag NGP through the courts for at least 5 years. There's basically two Supreme Court challenges standing in Northern Gateway's way.

The politics just aren't there. Northern Gateway will be pulled off the table sometime in the next 18 months. You can bank on it.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by fotze

Screw Horn River, Liard is where its at.

Montney pwns

[GP_Matt]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

The reason that 65% of British Columbians are against Northern Gateway isn't because they aren't getting enough financial benefit. It's because they don't want a pipeline running through their territory and oil tankers off their coast, full stop. You may disagree with that, but it's not like sweetening the pot is going to result in big movements of support in BC. Northern Gateway is effectively dead.

I don't think it is dead, although they are losing the PR battle.

The fact is that the export licenses have/will be approved which means that tanker traffic will be there even if the oil is shipped in on trains. The rail line already exists to carry the bitumen to Kitimat. There will also be tanker traffic for the numerous LNG export terminals which have been granted approval as well.
Even if Gateway is delayed or stopped, once the export terminals start running it is only a matter of time before the pipeline comes back either the same application or via a different company.

[Reaper]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

I hope you're hungry.

Even still, my proverbial hat is wafer thin.

[keratosis]

I just want cheap gas/ gasoline.

[Northendzone]

Lord, I promise if you provide us with one more boom, we will not piss away all of our money like last time.......

[Fozzie_DeBear]

The other factor in play is that fracking technology has unlocked incremental oil and gas supplies in the US...thus lowering the demand and price for Alberta product.

Kind of ironic that lots of the knowledge needed for fracking was developed in Alberta

[GP_Matt]

More of a random thought, but if BC is successful in blocking the Enbridge line and shortly after Alberta goes through a terrible bust does BC become the new NEP?
I can picture it now, Albertans selling their vacation properties on mass. Drinking BC wine will become an act of shame.
It could become a feud that lasts for generations with new Albertans hating BC even more in an attempt to fit in. In the end the reason for our scorn will take a back seat to the actual scorn.

[username]

Yes the "boom" is over and likely won't return until natural gas prices are above 5 bucks. While the boom times are gone it's still steady and there's a lot of money being made so it's still good.....but it's not booming like it was, that's for sure.

[Hack&Lube]

We may be in for a downturn for a couple years. All these pipelines are up in question and I know several traditional producers are trying very hard to wean themselves off their older reliance on LNG because the prices are going below subsistence for keeping a lot of these facilities online.

A lot of medium companies are banking on SAGD/Thermal projects to save them but as already been said, these projects take several years to build up and develop (not to mention many multi-millions in investment capital that has to be raised first) before you can even get to production so it's a longer-term goal (3-10 years) and who knows where we will be by then.

The hope for the pipelines is that they will open up new markets for LNG or open up a gateway to refineries in the gulf coast to stem the bleeding. The world population is ever increasing and the supply is finite (even though we keep finding new reserves or inventing new ways to extract O&G) so demand will go up again. It's just hard to say how far in the future that is.

[Rerun]

The oil & gas supply company I work for had record year in sales last year, so no, I haven't noticed a slow down.

I suspect it will be the same again this year.

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by fotze

I always see this, seems 99% of conversation is about new development, but nothing on the wells already going. Its like you drill the well or build the plant and walk away and they run themself. There is a lot of work to keeping exiting wells going.

Also, many wells are sustained on a break-even basis or even as net losers in terms of production versus income from sales of products because it would cost more to actually shut down the well and perform the correct completions and reg compliance, etc.

[Tinordi]

Most concerning to the industry are increasing whispers about new in situ wells not performing nearly to spec. It's a dirty little secret that most of the best in situ sites are already taken and vertical faults are significantly reducing production from new wells.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Most concerning to the industry are increasing whispers about new in situ wells not performing nearly to spec. It's a dirty little secret that most of the best in situ sites are already taken and vertical faults are significantly reducing production from new wells.

I wouldn't listen to those whispers, the percentage of the lease that companies are currently accessing is a fraction of the total. There are plenty of examples of SAGD projects running above nameplate because the producers are conservative with production estimates. New technology like non-condensable gas injection, infill wells, ect will lower SOR considerably and bring on new cheap production.

[polak]

The company I work for needs a very cheap price of oil to break even. If it ever dipped that low again I'd be absolutely floored.

[Tinordi]

If toe to heel, vapex, and other solvents are so great why isn't the industry using them in new wells right now?

[Reaper]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

If toe to heel, vapex, and other solvents are so great why isn't the industry using them in new wells right now?

Reluctance to change.

If the wheel wasn't invented yet and it was unveiled today and accepted by the world it would still take 5 years for the industry to start using wheels.

[DFO]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

If toe to heel, vapex, and other solvents are so great why isn't the industry using them in new wells right now?

It's an expensive exercise. There are companies piloting solvent co-injection and the rest of us will wait to see how it works.

[DFO]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

vertical faults are significantly reducing production from new wells.

Curious comment, care to elaborate?