Playoff Chances

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

We'd need 56 or so points to make the playoffs. That means we need to be 8 games over .500 over the 48 game season. With 3 games gone and only 1 point, we now need to go 10 games over .500 over the next 45 games. That's roughly a .611 points percentage. Not unachievable, but far from easy.

UGGGG. Thats basicaly the same % that they have had to do in January for the last 2 seasons. We all know how that turned out. Granted being early in the schedule, a couple of wins could right the ship. The next 3 home games are crititcal.

[Igster]

Math nerds.

[Komskies]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

UGGGG. Thats basicaly the same % that they have had to do in January for the last 2 seasons. We all know how that turned out. Granted being early in the schedule, a couple of wins could right the ship. The next 3 home games are crititcal.

Pretty much. I say we need either 5/6 or 6/6 points on these next 3 home games if we even want a sniff of the playoffs this year.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Red-Mile-DJ

Thank you sir. I think I heard the ".500" comment on NHL radio or something. I didn't think it sounded too accurate.

In the 1995 shortened season, 9 out of 10 teams under .500 after 10 games did not make the playoffs. The other team, Devils, won the Stanley Cup [Maher]

[MisterJoji]

Just realized we have 1 CBC home game this year. That kind of blows.

[Komskies]

Originally Posted by MisterJoji

Just realized we have 1 CBC home game this year. That kind of blows.

Less Glen Healy and PJ Stock? Hurray!

[Vinny01]

Honestly I watched a Flames team that looked to get better every game so far this season. They are adjusting to a new coach and system and are getting 2 top 6 forwards back in the lineup next game.

Iggy, Kipper, Cammy all have been rusty to start. Last game Iggy and Kipper looked better. Cammy still looked pretty bad but improved from last game.

The best thing that can happen for this team is a 4 day break between game 4 and 5. The team can really dig in and adapt to Hartley's system. I am still optimistc about this team and really like what I have seen/heard from Hartley so far (minues the shootout selection)

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Honestly I watched a Flames team that looked to get better every game so far this season. They are adjusting to a new coach and system and are getting 2 top 6 forwards back in the lineup next game.

Iggy, Kipper, Cammy all have been rusty to start. Last game Iggy and Kipper looked better. Cammy still looked pretty bad but improved from last game.

The best thing that can happen for this team is a 4 day break between game 4 and 5. The team can really dig in and adapt to Hartley's system. I am still optimistc about this team and really like what I have seen/heard from Hartley so far (minues the shootout selection)

Coaches systems are not very different. To me it's more about adjusting to each other and feeling comfortable. I think once we get our first w, we'll go on a tear

[Loyal and True]

oh well. better luck net year.

[GGG]

You need to average around 7 points every 6 games.

95 points to make the playoffs means 1.15 ppg. This works out to 55.5 points. So dividing the season into 6 game chunks we need to average 7 points. This assumes that the number of 3 point games will remain the same.

I think we need to wait until 12 games in 1/4 of the season to see how were doing. If we dont have around 15 points we will be in trouble.

This means than in the next nine games we need to go 7-2 or 6-2-1 to be back on track. Now we dont need to get it done right away but lose the next 2 and we will a long way oit of the playoffs.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Red-Mile-DJ

With the shortened season (48 games), doesn't a team need to be at .500 after 10 games to mathematically be able to still make it into the playoffs?

What's the "magic number" this year anyway? I know in an 82 game season it's something like 94 or 96.

What is it this year?

edit: no, I have't read all the replies and the link in the OP yet.

that makes zero sense

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Coaches systems are not very different. To me it's more about adjusting to each other and feeling comfortable. I think once we get our first w, we'll go on a tear

With the Flames focusing more on entertaining hockey and not protecting a 2-1 lead with 30minutes left to play I think the style has changed significantly.

The key to Hartley is the culture change he is trying to implement. It started with Feaster but really it is done by the coaches. With Sutter it seemed to be more doom and gloom. I can see in pres conferences and interviews that Hartley wants the team to bond like a family, he wants them team to be positive and is not getting down on the group despite the 0-2-1 start

[RedMileDJ]

Originally Posted by dino7c

that makes zero sense

Just like this reply.

It was a question. I asked for an answer. At least other people, within the thread, answered back with a reply with some substance.

But thanks for coming out. Great reply. Would read again. Adds a lot to the conversation.

[JazzyFlame]

Originally Posted by vinny01

honestly i watched a flames team that looked to get better every game so far this season. They are adjusting to a new coach and system and are getting 2 top 6 forwards back in the lineup next game.

Iggy, kipper, cammy all have been rusty to start. Last game iggy and kipper looked better. Cammy still looked pretty bad but improved from last game.

The best thing that can happen for this team is a 4 day break between game 4 and 5. The team can really dig in and adapt to hartley's system. I am still optimistc about this team and really like what i have seen/heard from hartley so far (minues the shootout selection)

+1

[FlameFan21]

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Red-Mile-DJ

Just like this reply.

It was a question. I asked for an answer. At least other people, within the thread, answered back with a reply with some substance.

But thanks for coming out. Great reply. Would read again. Adds a lot to the conversation.

well think about it...you think a team that goes 4 and 6 in the first ten is mathematically out of it?

still 38 games left, mathematically the best they could do would be

42-6

they might just sneak in

[Diverce]

Originally Posted by Poe969

It's sad that a few years ago we were looking at being first in the division and trying for first in the west.

If this isn't a clear sign that change is needed, I don't know what is.

Isn't that what they did. Since then they have a new gm, new drafting philosophy, more emphasis on skill, new coach who has them playing a more uptempo brand of hockey. Our prospect pool is better.

Is it because Iggy, Kipper, Stajan and Bouwmeester are on the team you assume that everything is the same regardless of the #### load of change that has happened. Or, is because they haven't done the Edmonton style rebuild that so many people want for some reason.

What hasn't changed for you, I'm curious.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by dino7c

well think about it...you think a team that goes 4 and 6 in the first ten is mathematically out of it?

still 38 games left, mathematically the best they could do would be

42-6

they might just sneak in

Flames are on pace to go 1-7-2 in their first 10 games. At this point 4-6 is a pipe dream and best case scenario. I know people like to be overly optimistic but look at the standings already. After playing only 3 games the Flames are already 7 points behind the conference leader. It takes weeks to move up in the standings and make ground as even if the Flames put together some wins the rest of the conference will be accumulating wins as well. There's simply not enough time in this shortended season to fall behind early.

It sounds crazy but Saturday's game is critical for this franchise. A loss to their provincial rivals would mean 1 out of a possible 8 points in their first 4 games. This team isn't good enough to make up that type of deficit and don't expect a 3rd line winger from Detroit or guy fresh off the boat from Europe to change the plight of this team.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Diverce

Isn't that what they did. Since then they have a new gm, new drafting philosophy, more emphasis on skill, new coach who has them playing a more uptempo brand of hockey. Our prospect pool is better.

Is it because Iggy, Kipper, Stajan and Bouwmeester are on the team you assume that everything is the same regardless of the #### load of change that has happened. Or, is because they haven't done the Edmonton style rebuild that so many people want for some reason.

What hasn't changed for you, I'm curious.

The philosophy of win now hasn't changed. The organization still think it is better to finish 8th/9th then to build a team that can actually contend for the Cup.

And hiring a crap GM, using buzzwords and lies to describe the "new" philospohy and making crappy signings isn't necessarily the best way to go about "change."

[zukes]

I find it strange that every says you can be out of it sonner this year. I think you have a chance longer in a season like this. Every game is a conference opponent. Every game directly affects your point total and, right now, someone who you are chasing points total. Every game is a 4 point game.