"The Edmonton Oilers are a useless franchise"

[wingmaker]

I don't think anyone is arguing that the Oilers aren't trending up. But I take issue with any argument that one team is better than another simply based on what one person thinks will happen. Last year, the Flames were better than the Oilers. Until Edmonton reverses this situation, they are not a better team than Calgary, because sports are not about fantasy lineups, they are about results. And betting odds don't change that fact. Until the Oilers have the results, they are still an unproven team. This isn't a knock on them, it just is the way it is.

[AlbertaOiler72]

Originally Posted by AR_Six

^Yeah here's the thing and this is for perspective: saying Eberle is going to maintain something resembling a 19% shooting rate is like Flames fans saying they expect Curtis Glencross to build on last year's goal totals.

except Eberle had a 23.6 shooting % in the AHL, even after most of the stats guys said there's no way he could sustain it...how do you explain that?

[CsInMyBlood]

Oh the off-season!

The time when Oiler fans come to this board in droves to argue how they're better than the Flames.

A month into the season they all suddenly go away with Smid in their mouths.

[AR_Six]

Originally Posted by AlbertaOiler72

except Eberle had a 23.6 shooting % in the AHL, even after most of the stats guys said there's no way he could sustain it...how do you explain that?

It's the AHL? Dude, if you want to take the position that Eberle is somehow a magic scoring wizard whose talent for missing goalies and hitting twine vastly outstrips everyone else in the NHL, cool, you're entitled to that. I for one see him at best settling in to a more reasonable shooting % range typical of top line forwards in the NHL not named Steven Stamkos. I should caveat that I am not a big believer in the Ebs - despite the hype train, in my view the long term (i.e. the "by the time they're UFAs") will show that RNH and Hall are the better all-around players.

[AlbertaOiler72]

Originally Posted by AR_Six

It's the AHL? Dude, if you want to take the position that Eberle is somehow a magic scoring wizard whose talent for missing goalies and hitting twine vastly outstrips everyone else in the NHL, cool, you're entitled to that. I for one see him at best settling in to a more reasonable shooting % range typical of top line forwards in the NHL not named Steven Stamkos. I should caveat that I am not a big believer in the Ebs - despite the hype train, in my view the long term (i.e. the "by the time they're UFAs") will show that RNH and Hall are the better all-around players.

sure but Hall had a more "reasonable" shooting % of 16.9% in the AHL...doesn't that immediately show that either a) Hall takes "bad" shots or b) Eberle takes "better" shots?

the point I'm trying to make is that Eberle seems to always have a high shooting %...until he see him regress to 17% or whatever, I'll continue to believe he keeps his high %

but I do agree that Hall will be better in a couple years...watching him play, he drives the offense on this team

[Inglewood Jack]

Originally Posted by AlbertaOiler72

except Eberle had a 23.6 shooting % in the AHL, even after most of the stats guys said there's no way he could sustain it...how do you explain that?

lower quality league. if Eberle was in your rec league and posted a shooting percentage of 95, can you count that as evidence that he is the most accurate sniper of all time?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Azure

You simply can't argue that RNH was ready for the more physical NHL against bigger players.

His point totals and overall play say otherwise.

[Resolute 14]

Thanks to the lockout, the Oiler trolls will bail in mid-February rather than mid-November this season.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Azure

No the WHL is not as physical, simply because it is not as fast, and the players aren't as big. The NHL is the superior league for a reason. Can't believe you want to argue this point.

You didn't answer my question about how many WHL games you've seen. There are a lot of big kids in the WHL. In the NHL a player may lose their spot in the lineup if they throw big hits that get them out of position leading to a goal or an odd man rush against so some players have to tone down their physical game. There are some aboslutely devastating open ice hits in the junior. There are some really dirty hits too.

Obviously the NHL is the superior league. That doesn't automatically make it way more physical.

As another poster said, Kane played at around the same weight as RNH. That weight does not automatically mean the player will get injured. And if it does he would've had a similar chance to get injured in junior. RNH was NHL ready, go watch his highlights from last season and check his point totals.

[Bertuzzied]

Originally Posted by CsInMyBlood

Oh the off-season!

The time when Oiler fans come to this board in droves to argue how they're better than the Flames.

A month into the season they all suddenly go away with Smid in their mouths.

Is Marc Ciampa the only sane Oiler fan left in the world?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Azure

I remember a player that had 3 goals in 4 games on a team starved for offense and still in the hunt. He got sent back to the WHL.

Are you conveniently forgetting he was on an emergency recall and thus had to be sent back once we got some players healthy? We couldn't keep him up indefinitely if we wanted to. Just give it up man, you've been schooled in this argument.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by AlbertaOiler72

except Eberle had a 23.6 shooting % in the AHL, even after most of the stats guys said there's no way he could sustain it...how do you explain that?

It's the AHL - let's see what he does at the NHL level. You can't simply convert shooting% numbers from one league to the next.

Originally Posted by AlbertaOiler72

I'm not saying Eberle will sustain his shooting percentage but stats only tell half the story...you also got to watch the player. Eberle doesn't just flick a wrister from the blue-line...he only take shots from high % areas which leads me to believe he'll always have a high shooting percentage...will it be 19%? who knows
I get it that a lot of "stats guys" wanna be the next Bill James and their are definitely some great advance stats out there...but they simply do not tel the whole story
so dismissing a guy simply based on stats is a flawed argument

I don't doubt that Eberle does make his shots count, but if you want to say he'll always have a high shooting percentage you have to look relative to the rest of the league. 19% is not a high shooting percentage - it's one that's off the charts. The only active player near that total is Tanguay (18.5%) and that's for obvious reasons - he truly only shoots when he's absolutely forced to. After that, here's the only three active guys above 16% for their career:

Stamkos (17.0%) - Eberle is no Stamkos. Eberle's great, but there isn't a better pure scorer in the league.
Holmstrom (16.32%) & Brunnette (17.68%) - Two guys who made a career of putting home garbage in front of the net. They have high shooting percentages for a reason. Tons of shots from 5-10 feet away from the goalie and off rebounds too.

So when you say "maybe his shooting% will be 19% moving forward" it lacks any realistic backing. There's a ton of great players with shooting% between 14-15% (Toews, Briere, Datsyuk, Kovalchuk, Ryan, Spezza, etc.) - that's the realistic settling point for a highly accurate shooter.

At the 180 shots he took last year, with a 14-15% shooting percentage (which, again, is still very elite) Eberle is looking at 25-27 goals - a big drop from the 34 he had. You can talk about how all shots are different, but can you realistically say that Eberle is taking better quality shots than other elite NHL players?

You can't simply discount the stats because you don't like them. Eberle's shooting percentage is unsustainable unless he's the rare exception and you think he's a more gifted shooter than Stamkos. A simple look around the league shows you that. He can certainly score 34 again, but he's going to have to find a way to generate more shots & chances than he did last year to do so.

EDIT: Here's a list of career all-time leaders with active players bolded: http://www.hockey-reference.com/lead...ct_career.html

[metallicat]

Originally Posted by Bertuzzied

Is Marc Ciampa the only sane Oiler fan left in the world?

He's an inside man for the Flames.

[Username: Flames]

The Edmonton Oilers are a useless franchise.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by AlbertaOiler72

for a stats guy, you should be the one guy looking at more than just points
GF-GA went from -76 to -27....up +49

PP was 3rd in the league
PK was 14th

Pts up +12

so yes...its a huge improvement from season to season...enough for the playoffs this year? yet to be determined

Excellent - an actual argument with facts to support it as to why the Oilers are allegedly improved (as opposed to "Vegas says so").

Here is another fact to consider with respect to that argument...

The Oilers started last season red hot, due to Khabby going into God Mode. In their first 12 games they were 8-2-2

Columbus started the season in a nightmare due to some key injuries, posting a 2-9-1 record in their first 12 games.

For the remaining 70 games, the records of the two teams were:

Edm: 24-38-8 56 pts
CBJ: 27-37-6 60 pts

For the final 70 games of the season, the Oilers were the worst team in the NHL - despite their massive improvement in goal differential and their special teams prowess.

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Excellent - an actual argument with facts to support it as to why the Oilers are allegedly improved (as opposed to "Vegas says so").

Here is another fact to consider with respect to that argument...

The Oilers started last season red hot, due to Khabby going into God Mode. In their first 12 games they were 8-2-2

Columbus started the season in a nightmare due to some key injuries, posting a 2-9-1 record in their first 12 games.

For the remaining 70 games, the records of the two teams were:

Edm: 24-38-8 56 pts
CBJ: 27-37-6 60 pts

For the final 70 games of the season, the Oilers were the worst team in the NHL - despite their massive improvement in goal differential and their special teams prowess.

Eric D interviewed Kreuger (oilers head coach) the other day and Kreuger said people should curb their enthusiasm since the Oilers were a 29th place club last year and they only changed 2players from that roster (now 3 with Fistric trade).

[Anduril]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I disagree about Eberle being lucky in fact I like him better than Hall but there is no doubt that they have somewhat rushed these guys into the NHL as Hall and RNH have looked fragile.

Agreed. Can't understand the debate between Hall and Eberle. One guy makes your team better. The other one? Just gets injured and has to show the star potential that he's supposedly capable of.

Sent from the Prime

[DarkSaturn]

Originally Posted by JayP

It's the AHL - let's see what he does at the NHL level. You can't simply convert shooting% numbers from one league to the next.

Scores clutch goals in the WJ's... "Not pro hockey - doesn't count, was just burying gimmies anyway"

Has a 19% shooting percentage over a year in the NHL... "One season anomaly, he'll never repeat that, was playing easy minutes anyway"

Improves to 24% shooting percentage in the AHL during the lock-out "Can't convert numbers from the AHL to the NHL, goaltenders in the AHL suck anyway"

[Locke]

That may have been one of the least professional 'articles' I've ever read.

Aaaaaaaanyways.....

Originally Posted by Jets4Life

I hate to say this, but I think this will be a breakout year for the Oilers. Most of them have been together in Oklahoma City, Nugent-Hopkins and Yakupov were very impressive in the World Juniors, and the team is improving on the blueline. My prediction is the Oilers will go 26-17-5 this season, good for 7th place.

I disagree.

We all know that the Oilers are far from a complete team, much is made of their lack of top end defencemen, something which Schultz alone is not the cure for, and the fact that their goaltending is average to atrocious.

Ultimately though, there has to be a serious attitude and tactical adjustment made, without which they'll never be successful.

Yes, some of their forwards in Eberle, Hall and RNH put up some big numbers, but we have to keep in mind the fact that the general tactical layout of the Oilers was:

"We're not going to win anyways so you may as well go for it."

This attitude leads to a lot of those numbers being really inflated. There was very little defensive responsibility from anyone.

That has to change, the system has to get tightened up and when that happens a lot of those numbers are going to come down. Can they be successful with this group when they're scoring fewer goals because they have to be more responsible?

However, when you draft a guy like Yakupov who is pretty much an exclusively offensive player that doesnt scream out to me that they plan on changing much to become more defensively minded.

Also, on the RNH front, I actually agree. Playing him last year was stupid. He was a small, skinny kid who has lots of talent but there was no sense in burning a year of his ELC on a last place team. Now they'll have burnt 2 and gotten basically nothing in return. Poor asset management.

[dash_pinched]

For what it's worth, Steve Tambellini was on HockeyCentral earlier today and says they're playoff contenders this year and was quite adamant about it.