Season Predictions thread

[AR_Six]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

I would take that bet based on the odds.

How do you calculate those in this instance?

I am assuming that CGY, MIN, COL and EDM will give and take a few wins from each other and will not be far apart in the end (with the potential for one of them to significantly underachieve and / or get hit by injuries). No one will run up the points, and Vancouver will have the best record against NW opponents. That will be enough to carry them into the top 3 in the conference, at least.

If you think the Canucks are significantly worse, and the other 4 teams significantly better than last year then you would come to a different conclusion, obviously. Or if you're convinced that Minnesota's moves make them a legitimate contending team, which I am not at all.

[Loyal and True]

Originally Posted by AR_Six

If someone offered you a bet, where on even money, the other guy took Van to win the NW and if any of the 4 other teams ended up winning it you'd win the bet, would you take it? I sure as hell wouldn't. My view is that Vancouver is still a very good team while all of the other teams in the division are, at best, bubble teams. Injuries can affect this, though, particularly the big hole at 2C. I just think they'll be able to overcome that and continue winning to a point where they should be in a race for the #1 spot with LA, STL and CHI.

I would also say that the hype Minnesota has gotten from the Suter and Parise signings is overblown, and that even with those two players they aren't a particularly good team. They may make the playoffs, but I doubt they're winning the division.

I would be very tempted to take that bet, but I would hold out and get much better odds than "even money"

[AR_Six]

I guess the other position you could take is that in this kind of a season it's a crapshoot as to which teams are ready and fit to play, and which ones will flounder out of the gate, and in that environment past success and "on paper" team quality is of significantly diminished value, in which case having 4 names in the hat is better than one. If that's what was meant by the odds.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by AR_Six

I guess the other position you could take is that in this kind of a season it's a crapshoot as to which teams are ready and fit to play, and which ones will flounder out of the gate, and in that environment past success and "on paper" team quality is of significantly diminished value, in which case having 4 names in the hat is better than one. If that's what was meant by the odds.

No way I would have taken that bet last year. And if it were an 82 game season this year, I wouldn't take it this year either.

However, for the 48 game season, I would take that bet (though, as Loyal and True said, you could probably get better odds for it)

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by AR_Six

Even if Montreal traded Subban, Price and Pacioretti for Lundqvist, Chara and Crosby I would not expect them to make the playoffs.

Agreed. I am baffled by the love the Habs are getting this year. I don't think they have a snowball's chance of making the playoffs.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Loyal and True

AV will be fired by the Canucks in the midst of an underachieving season.

NW division will be much more interesting this year. I think it will be like last year's Pacific division. The top 4 teams in the NW might be separated by 5 or 6 points, and the division winner might be 10 points behind the #1 seed.


I think Canucks will fall back towards the pack in the NW because there will be fewer divisional gimme's with Edmonton, Minny, Colorado all improving from the last couple of horrendous seasons, while the Canucks are not getting any better.


Vancouver is due to have an underachieving season. They should get the 3rd seed, but almost any of the five NW teams could steal the division from them.

Fired mid season in a 48 game season? I highly doubt it and the only way the Canucks don't win the NW is if the Wild start like they did last season and maintain it. Flames, Avs, and Oilers don't have the horses to keep up with them and should all finish outside the playoffs.

[troutman]

SI Power Rankings:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nhl...3_a4&eref=sihp

3 Edmonton Oilers (32-40-10)
Check with me in a month or two, but it says here that they will get off to a great start -- which really ups the odds of getting into the playoffs. Why the reason for Oil optimism? Because Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle and newcomer D-man Justin Schultz all played regularly during the lockout in the AHL and will be that much further along than the players who were limited to informal skates or shinny matches for charity. Eberle had 51 points in 34 games for Oklahoma City, while Schultz had 48 in 34. Granted, big questions remain in goal and defense, but what an offense this should be.

24 Calgary Flames (37-29-16)
New coach Bob Hartley always gets his teams to play hard, but with an old roster full of high-paid guys, it won't be as easy. Maybe Hartley can get Jay Bouwmeester to show some passion, but we won't hold our breath. Jiri Hudler was a nice, if slightly overpaid, addition in the off-season and Miikka Kiprusoff remains a top goalie. So there is hope here, but a lot of things have to go right.

[Ring of Fire]

Stat projections for the shortened season from TSN
http://www.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/feature/?ID=84332

Name - GP - G - A - PTS
Iginla - 48 - 19 - 20 - 39
Tanguay - 42 - 10 - 22 - 32
Cammalleri - 39 - 12 - 14 - 26
Wideman - 46 - 6 -18 - 24
Glencross - 42 - 11 - 12 - 23
Cervenka - 45 - 10 - 13 - 23
Hudler - 46 - 8 - 15 - 23
Baertschi - 43 - 8 - 14 - 22
Stempniak - 42 - 11 - 9 - 20
Giordano - 46 - 5 - 14 - 19

Name - GP - W - GAA - SV% - SO
Kiprusoff - 42 - 21 - 2.44 - 0.916 - 3

High? Low?

[Pierre "Monster" McGuire]

Originally Posted by Ring of Fire

Stat projections for the shortened season from TSN
http://www.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/feature/?ID=84332

Name - GP - G - A - PTS
Iginla - 48 - 19 - 20 - 39
Tanguay - 42 - 10 - 22 - 32
Cammalleri - 39 - 12 - 14 - 26
Wideman - 46 - 6 -18 - 24
Glencross - 42 - 11 - 12 - 23
Cervenka - 45 - 10 - 13 - 23
Hudler - 46 - 8 - 15 - 23
Baertschi - 43 - 8 - 14 - 22
Stempniak - 42 - 11 - 9 - 20
Giordano - 46 - 5 - 14 - 19

Name - GP - W - GAA - SV% - SO
Kiprusoff - 42 - 21 - 2.44 - 0.916 - 3

High? Low?

Just guessing, I'll say Hudler's is a bit low. On the other hand, I'd love it Baertschi got those numbers this season. I say it's reasonable to expect that from him.

I think TSN projection of Kipper's numbers are a tad off. I'll go with 2.21 GAA and a .924 SV%

[Pierre "Monster" McGuire]

Also, I think the Minnesota Wild will be the LA Lakers of the NHL.

[moncton golden flames]

Originally Posted by getbak

Is there a list anywhere of the players for each team who have been playing some level of professional hockey since October?

not sure how accurate...

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature/?id=75388

[getbak]

Vancouver and Minnesota, 3 players in Europe. Calgary and Colorado, 4 players in Europe.

So, other than Edmonton, the rest of the Division seems to be in roughly the same situation as the Flames with regards to playing time during the lockout.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Ring of Fire

Stat projections for the shortened season from TSN
http://www.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/feature/?ID=84332

Name - GP - G - A - PTS
Iginla - 48 - 19 - 20 - 39
Tanguay - 42 - 10 - 22 - 32
Cammalleri - 39 - 12 - 14 - 26
Wideman - 46 - 6 -18 - 24
Glencross - 42 - 11 - 12 - 23
Cervenka - 45 - 10 - 13 - 23
Hudler - 46 - 8 - 15 - 23
Baertschi - 43 - 8 - 14 - 22
Stempniak - 42 - 11 - 9 - 20
Giordano - 46 - 5 - 14 - 19

Name - GP - W - GAA - SV% - SO
Kiprusoff - 42 - 21 - 2.44 - 0.916 - 3

High? Low?

If you take these numbers and project to 82 games, then compare that to last year, projected to 82 games for the guys who were injured (Tanguay, Cammalleri, Giordano and Stempniak), every player is projected to do worse except for Iginla who is the same at 67.

[Ashasx]

I think Cammalleri is good for a 0.75 point/game clip at least.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

I think Cammalleri is good for a 0.75 point/game clip at least.

Maybe if the number of powerplays increases again like after the last lockout.

His last three seasons:

09/10- 0.77
10/11- 0.70
11/12- 0.62

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Ring of Fire

Stat projections for the shortened season from TSN
http://www.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/feature/?ID=84332

Name - GP - G - A - PTS
Iginla - 48 - 19 - 20 - 39
Tanguay - 42 - 10 - 22 - 32
Cammalleri - 39 - 12 - 14 - 26
Wideman - 46 - 6 -18 - 24
Glencross - 42 - 11 - 12 - 23
Cervenka - 45 - 10 - 13 - 23
Hudler - 46 - 8 - 15 - 23
Baertschi - 43 - 8 - 14 - 22
Stempniak - 42 - 11 - 9 - 20
Giordano - 46 - 5 - 14 - 19

Name - GP - W - GAA - SV% - SO
Kiprusoff - 42 - 21 - 2.44 - 0.916 - 3

High? Low?

Tells you what they think of Stajan eh?

I hope he finds his game again but i wont hold my breath. If he cracks 15 pts it would be a miracle IMO.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Tells you what they think of Stajan eh?

I hope he finds his game again but i wont hold my breath. If he cracks 15 pts it would be a miracle IMO.

Stajan will find his game again...In Arizona.



...When he gets traded there on Monday. In case I wasn't clear by what I meant.

[Gord_Wappel]

Butler is a healthy scratch and only plays 12 games

Brodie and Bouw both have great seasons offensively but Wideman becomes the new CP whipping boy and top candidate for a buyout at seasons end.

Stajan suprises and puts up good numbers centering the 3nd line with Hudler and Glencross and the 2nd line of Cervenka/Backlund/Bartschi is our best line to start the season but cool off in the second half after Backlund is hurt.

Iggy in typical fashion starts slow and is criticized on this board and elsewhere for not buying in and playing the system. Hartley reduces his ice time and puts him in the doghouse and speculation runs wild that he will be traded to a contender. In game 20 he starts scoring at a rapid pace and becomes the dominant player of old and literally wills this team into 7th place in the west.

Calgary makes the finals but loses in 6 to Philly after winning the first 2 games on the road and losing Sven to a concussion from a dirty hit from Hartnell.

[Brannigans Law]

I predict that all my anger with the players and frustration over the leagues inability to get a deal done sooner will disappear the second the puck is drop. I predict when I see Iggy celebrate a goal I'll jump out of my chair cheering. I predict when Sven pots his 1st of the season I'll feel better about our future. In short, I'm just glad hockeys back.

[N-E-B]

West
1. Vancouver
2. St. Louis
3. Los Angeles
4. Minnesota
5. Chicago
6. Nashville
7. Detroit
8. Calgary
9. San Jose
10. Dallas
11. Phoenix
12. Colorado
13. Edmonton
14. Anaheim
15. Columbus

East
1. Pittsburgh
2. Boston
3. Washington
4. New York Rangers
5. Philadelphia
6. Carolina
7. Buffalo
8. Florida
9. New Jersey
10. Tampa Bay
11. Toronto
12. Ottawa
13. New York Islanders
14. Winnipeg
15. Montreal

Crosby wins Art Ross
Lundqvuist wins Vezina
Stamkos wins Richard
Weber wins Norris
Baertschi wins Calder