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Old 01-07-2013, 10:52 AM   #201
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Ballard this year, Luongo next.
That's my feeling as well.
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Old 01-07-2013, 11:57 AM   #202
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The only problem with that is that there are at least 2 teams that want him. If the Leafs wait for a buy out then they know he will probably sign in Florida, unless they offer a bunch of money, probably a lot more than his current cap hit. If the Leafs want Luongo then it makes sense for them to trade for him.
Not really as the Panthers have Markstrom and Luongo will find himself in the same situation as he found himself in Vancouver with a young prospect pushing him for starts. In Toronto he's going to get the gig for the forseeable future where they can offer a longer term than the Panthers may like. Really Toronto is the only team that has had any confirmed interest though as the only mentions of Panther interest has been in hearsay.

Bottom line is that Luongo's deal really doesn't make sense post lockout so I just can't fathom a GM taking a flyer on the deal which is a bigger risk than losing out on Luongo.
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Old 01-07-2013, 12:01 PM   #203
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Not really as the Panthers have Markstrom and Luongo will find himself in the same situation as he found himself in Vancouver with a young prospect pushing him for starts. In Toronto he's going to get the gig for the forseeable future where they can offer a longer term than the Panthers may like. Really Toronto is the only team that has had any confirmed interest though as the only mentions of Panther interest has been in hearsay.

Bottom line is that Luongo's deal really doesn't make sense post lockout so I just can't fathom a GM taking a flyer on the deal which is a bigger risk than losing out on Luongo.

Even in a shortened season i think Burke's job is on the line. I say he goes to Toronto. THe Canucks will get a salary back on a crap 3rd to 4th liner.

Also the cap hit is not that bad. The length of the contract is horrible.
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Old 01-07-2013, 12:03 PM   #204
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The only problem with that is that there are at least 2 teams that want him. If the Leafs wait for a buy out then they know he will probably sign in Florida, unless they offer a bunch of money, probably a lot more than his current cap hit. If the Leafs want Luongo then it makes sense for them to trade for him.
Totally agree with this. My question is why does Florida want him back so desperately? They have one of the top goalie prospects in the league, Markstrom, who in all likelihood will be starter material very soon. Last year he had a handful of games with a record of 2-4-1 (meh), but a respectable GAA (2.66) and a great SV% (.923) All in all a pretty good, albeit short, debut. So why would they trade for 10 more years (probably closer to 7 or 8 in actuality) for Luongo? If they're smart, they refuse to trade for him, wait for the buyout and sign him to a more reasonable contract that would be more appropriate for a future backup/1B goaltender. In no way should Vancouver receive any kind of assets back for that monstrosity of a deal.

EDIT: Dammit EE, beat me to it.
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Old 01-07-2013, 12:05 PM   #205
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Ballard this year, Luongo next.
I don't know how many times we have to go over this.

Take any player. Look at his value and then his contract. Then ask, "would anyone want to trade a 7th round pick for this guy?" If the answer is yes, then you do not buy him out. Period.

Someone would clearly trade a 7th round pick for Luongo. Likely, they will get a fair bit more than that - a pick plus a player or two is the latest Leafs rumour. If Gillis said, "I'll take a 7th rounder", Burke would accept in a heartbeat. Consequently, there is zero chance he is bought out.

Ballard, on the other hand... it's not clear whether another team would be willing to pay him what he's making so he may not be worth a 7th rounder. It would depend on another team coming to the conclusion that his struggles in Vancouver are a result of the team and the system and that he would be a top 4 guy on their team (as he was in PHX and FLA). So it is more likely that he is bought out.
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Old 01-07-2013, 12:15 PM   #206
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I don't know how many times we have to go over this.

Take any player. Look at his value and then his contract. Then ask, "would anyone want to trade a 7th round pick for this guy?" If the answer is yes, then you do not buy him out. Period.

Someone would clearly trade a 7th round pick for Luongo. Likely, they will get a fair bit more than that - a pick plus a player or two is the latest Leafs rumour. If Gillis said, "I'll take a 7th rounder", Burke would accept in a heartbeat. Consequently, there is zero chance he is bought out.

Ballard, on the other hand... it's not clear whether another team would be willing to pay him what he's making so he may not be worth a 7th rounder. It would depend on another team coming to the conclusion that his struggles in Vancouver are a result of the team and the system and that he would be a top 4 guy on their team (as he was in PHX and FLA). So it is more likely that he is bought out.
Problem is Loungo has a NTC, and appears to be very picky about where he goes. You are right that a lot of teams probably would trade a 7th rounder for him, however there is no way he would waive to go to Columbus, Edmonton, etc. Hell, he might not even waive to go to the pressure cooker that is Toronto, he may be Florida or bust.
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Old 01-07-2013, 12:18 PM   #207
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Problem is Loungo has a NTC, and appears to be very picky about where he goes. You are right that a lot of teams probably would trade a 7th rounder for him, however there is no way he would waive to go to Columbus, Edmonton, etc.
The flip side being that he does not have a no movement clause, and putting him on waivers would lead to him ending up in Columbus immediately. Consequently, while he might be choosy about his destination, he's not going to sit there and veto any trade that isn't with Tampa or Florida. And in any event, either one of THOSE teams would give a 7th rounder for him too. Both teams are basically a playoff lock if they could get top 10 goaltending. So far the reason he's not going to Florida is that they weren't willing to give up Nick Bjugstad.

In the end, I expect that Luongo will waive his NTC for the Leafs if a deal is agreed to.
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Old 01-07-2013, 12:23 PM   #208
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If Luongo becomes a free agent then there will be several teams interested in him. If Toronto waits him badly enough they need to act.
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Old 01-07-2013, 12:26 PM   #209
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The flip side being that he does not have a no movement clause, and putting him on waivers would lead to him ending up in Columbus immediately. Consequently, while he might be choosy about his destination, he's not going to sit there and veto any trade that isn't with Tampa or Florida. And in any event, either one of THOSE teams would give a 7th rounder for him too. Both teams are basically a playoff lock if they could get top 10 goaltending. So far the reason he's not going to Florida is that they weren't willing to give up Nick Bjugstad.

In the end, I expect that Luongo will waive his NTC for the Leafs if a deal is agreed to.
Ahh yes, the waiving route, totally forgot about that. Thanks. In that case I agree, he'll waive his NTC to go somewhere.
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Old 01-07-2013, 12:29 PM   #210
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The thing with buyouts though is that I think the team may have to pay the player after the buyout in a single lump sum. The old way of calculating the cap penalty didn't mean that was how the player was acutally paid. Hence why a buyout is 2/3rd's of the remaining dollar value on the contract. The player gets the money up front so that makes up for not getting all the money in the contract as the value of those dollars should theoretically decrease over time. If teams get away with paying the guy a lesser sum that far into the future...I'm sure a lot more long term deals would get bought out because 2.1 million dollars in the years 2022 and 2023 theoretically are worth a lot less than 10 million paid out this year.

So for that reason, I don't think any team is going to buyout a really long term contract unless it is one of the 6 really rich teams like the Leafs, Rangers, Flyers, Canadiens.
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Old 01-07-2013, 12:35 PM   #211
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The only one that I could see buying out is Wideman, or maybe even Hudler. Stajan only has a year left on his contract after this season, as for Bouwmeester, unless we could get Edler on free agency I can't see it happening, too big of a hole on D if he left.
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Old 01-07-2013, 12:42 PM   #212
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The only one that I could see buying out is Wideman, or maybe even Hudler. Stajan only has a year left on his contract after this season, as for Bouwmeester, unless we could get Edler on free agency I can't see it happening, too big of a hole on D if he left.
Why on earth would Feaster buy out either of the 2 guys he just signed? Unless they have a Cheechoo like fall from grace this season, but that's incredibly unlikely.
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Old 01-07-2013, 12:49 PM   #213
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Why on earth would Feaster buy out either of the 2 guys he just signed? Unless they have a Cheechoo like fall from grace this season, but that's incredibly unlikely.
I never said that I think, or want it to happen. Just that it's the only likely option because they're the highest paid guys with the longest contracts on the team. Stajan/Bouwmeester don't really make sense to buy out because they only have a year and a half left on their contracts. Plus, Wideman and Hudler were both acquired via Free Agency so they're already a bit overpaid.

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Old 01-07-2013, 12:56 PM   #214
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For those asking how this works:

James Mirtle ‏@mirtle
Teams can use the compliance buyouts in summer of either 2013 or 2014. They function like other buyouts: Players receive two-thirds of $$$
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Old 01-07-2013, 12:58 PM   #215
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For the record, I highly doubt Wideman is bought out unless a new GM is in place 4 months from now. I can't see Feaster buying out 20 million dollars of a contract thats half a year old, and entirely a descision he made. The dollar value of the contract would have been a bit easier to stomach if it was a shorter deal. It's the length of that deal that scares me.
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Old 01-07-2013, 12:58 PM   #216
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For those asking how this works:

James Mirtle ‏@mirtle
Teams can use the compliance buyouts in summer of either 2013 or 2014. They function like other buyouts: Players receive two-thirds of $$$
2/3rds was assumed. Still unclear to me whether that's a lump sum up front or over twice the remaining years of the contract or at the team's election?
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Old 01-07-2013, 01:00 PM   #217
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2/3rds was assumed. Still unclear to me whether that's a lump sum up front or over twice the remaining years of the contract or at the team's election?
From what I have been reading looks like it's a lump sum payment. I'll see if I can find those tweets again from Mackenzie.
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Old 01-07-2013, 01:00 PM   #218
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I don't see the Flames needing to use one in 2013. 2014 on the other hand could see one used although the only ones to use them on then would be Wideman, Hudler and Tanguay. With Bouwmeester coming off the cap I don't see Wideman being the one who gets bought out. So it will boil down to how good of a season Tangs and Hudler have in 2013/2014.
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Old 01-07-2013, 01:30 PM   #219
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Wideman fills a big need of a offensive, PP point producer. Hudler is a solid top 6 forward. Both of whom JUST signed new contracts, no change they're bought out. As for overpaid, comparables:

Hudler - 50 points / 4 million / 29y
Jokinen - 61 points / 4.5 million / 34y
Shane Doam - 50 points / 5.3 million / 36y
Jagr - 54 points / 4.55 million / 40y
Perron - 42 points / 3.8 million / 24y
Oshie - 54 points / 4.2 million / 26y
Semin - 54 points / 7 million / 28y
Kostitsyn - 34 points / 3 million / 25y

Wideman - 46 points / 5.25 million / 29y
Kuba - 32 points / 4 million / 36y
Garrison - 33 points / 4.6 million / 28y
Salo - 25 points / 3.75 million / 38y
Carle - 38 points / 5.5 million / 28y

Keep in mind this is a one year snapshot and not everything is points when determining a players worth, but Wideman and Hudler are on pretty fair deals. Any don't you think Feaster would look like an absolute moron if he signed 2 guys and next year wanted a mulligan on both deals? No way those 2 are bought out.
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Old 01-07-2013, 02:51 PM   #220
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Wideman fills a big need of a offensive, PP point producer. Hudler is a solid top 6 forward. Both of whom JUST signed new contracts, no change they're bought out. As for overpaid, comparables:

Hudler - 50 points / 4 million / 29y
Jokinen - 61 points / 4.5 million / 34y
Shane Doam - 50 points / 5.3 million / 36y
Jagr - 54 points / 4.55 million / 40y
Perron - 42 points / 3.8 million / 24y
Oshie - 54 points / 4.2 million / 26y
Semin - 54 points / 7 million / 28y
Kostitsyn - 34 points / 3 million / 25y

Wideman - 46 points / 5.25 million / 29y
Kuba - 32 points / 4 million / 36y
Garrison - 33 points / 4.6 million / 28y
Salo - 25 points / 3.75 million / 38y
Carle - 38 points / 5.5 million / 28y

Keep in mind this is a one year snapshot and not everything is points when determining a players worth, but Wideman and Hudler are on pretty fair deals. Any don't you think Feaster would look like an absolute moron if he signed 2 guys and next year wanted a mulligan on both deals? No way those 2 are bought out.
These guys were allsigned under a 70.2M cap.... the cap is going down to 64.3 .... That is an 8.4 % drop...... all these guys are overpaid by 8.4%


The Flames cap spending for the 2012/13 season is 67.7 M 69 M if Baertshi makes the team.

The Flames have spent over the new cap by 4.7M .... they obviously would not have signed Wideman and Hudler with a 64M cap. They were the highest bidder for both of these guys..... If the Flames didn't sign them the next highest bidder (with cap room) would have got them considerably cheaper.


The Teams with caproom in 2013 The teams that are under 60 M in 2012/13 will be able to pick upsome quality UFAs at bargain rates........ from the team like the Flames who will be forced to dump their big salaries just to hang onto the guys they already have signed.

Teams under 60M this year and set up to stock their team for the next 5 years:
New York Rangers,Carolina Hurricanes,Columbus Blue Jackets,Winnipeg Jets,New Jersey Devils,Anaheim Ducks,Nashville Predators,Colorado Avalanche,Florida Panthers,St. Louis Blues,Dallas Stars,Ottawa Senators,New York Islanders,Phoenix Coyotes

There are NO teams evern close to the new 44M cap salary floor...... so everyone can stop saying how tradeable Stajan is.

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