2012-2013 Toronto Blue Jays Off Season Thread

[GreenLantern2814]

Prospects are designed to be overhyped so you can bring in guys like the NL Cy Young winner.

How many years did we listen to people talking about Brett Cecil as though he was some ace in waiting? Major league reliable players are worth so much more than 'potential'. Potential gets you those more reliable players because it's easy to let one' imagination run away with just how great that potential is. See Drabek, Kyle.

Hope the deal goes through, and hope an extension is forthcoming. Gonna be real nice to see a bonafide dealing knuckleballer out there every five days mowing fools down.

[TitovFTW]

Originally Posted by Clever_Iggy

I really don't like the trade. Don't like giving up TDA and Syndergaard for a 38 year old with 1 (a stretch to argue more) year. I put this trade, in a vacuum, with the KC Royals trade.

I would have rather thrown a ton of dough at a FA or work something out trade wise during spring training or the season.

AA is being aggressive but it's now World Series or complete bust.

Dickey has had more then one good year and I think the World Series now does become the goal, but the Jays will have more then 1 season to try and win it

[Clever_Iggy]

Originally Posted by TitovFTW

Dickey has had more then one good year and I think the World Series now does become the goal, but the Jays will have more then 1 season to try and win it

Not good enough to justify this level of return. Dickey does not equal Roy Halladay but returns are very similar.

Is Johnson extended? Can't he walk after 2013?

Basically AA is going to pay money as though Dickey was a FA but gave up 2 top 5 prospects for him. KC level stupid.

[Caged Great]

Dickey's WAR is actually improperly calculated. fWAR calculates FIP using league averages. BABIP is not counted in that as it's disregarded. The thing is that because he's a knuckler, he generates weak contact leading to a lower than normal BABIP (.270 vs .295). Basically that means his ERA is going to be lower than the FIP systematically which means that he's actually better than his perceived value. It basically means that he's actually worth about .5-1 win more than listed.

[TitovFTW]

Originally Posted by Clever_Iggy

Not good enough to justify this level of return. Dickey does not equal Roy Halladay but returns are very similar.

Is Johnson extended? Can't he walk after 2013?

Basically AA is going to pay money as though Dickey was a FA but gave up 2 top 5 prospects for him. KC level stupid.

But the trade market for pitching is a lot different now. Look at what Gonzalez, Latos and Shields all got back.

Johnson very well could walk. But if ownership is willing to spend on Dickey and everyone else, no reason to think Jays wouldn't offer up the moon to keep him.

Not sure I get the "pay money like Dickey was a FA" and also the fact that you're trading for him, guarantees his services as opposed to bidding on a free agent. Of course you're going to have to give up a lot for him, especially with the value he has only making 5 million next season, less then John Buck.

[secol]

i still think it's too much....also what why would he TDA not be a good first baseman if his knee does pose a problem? his AAA stats are fairly comparable to former top 1B prospects (rizzo, alonso)

[The Big Chill]

Originally Posted by secol

i still think it's too much....also what why would he TDA not be a good first baseman if his knee does pose a problem? his AAA stats are fairly comparable to former top 1B prospects (rizzo, alonso)

It's possible he could play there, but he loses most of his value. He is so valuable now because its really hard to find above average hitting catchers.

[bluejays]

I guess our opening day starter will play into the order of rotation for the rest of the season, but I'd do this as my rotation:

Morrow
Dickey
Johnson
Buehrle
Romero

I say Morrow as the opening day starter simply because you have to show some loyalty to your guys who you've had from before. He's also got some great pitches, and as other have mentioned, would help contributing to the one day fastball, one day knuckleball, then the next day fastball, timing screwing. I'm not sure I'd put Romero as #5 out of loyalty as he has done well with the organization in the past, and putting him as 5 implies he's an afterthought with the new arms in place. Maybe I'd swap with Buehrle. Hopefully he's working hard this offseason.

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by fleury

I guess our opening day starter will play into the order of rotation for the rest of the season, but I'd do this as my rotation:

Morrow
Dickey
Johnson
Buehrle
Romero

I say Morrow as the opening day starter simply because you have to show some loyalty to your guys who you've had from before. He's also got some great pitches, and as other have mentioned, would help contributing to the one day fastball, one day knuckleball, then the next day fastball, timing screwing. I'm not sure I'd put Romero as #5 out of loyalty as he has done well with the organization in the past, and putting him as 5 implies he's an afterthought with the new arms in place. Maybe I'd swap with Buehrle. Hopefully he's working hard this offseason.

No you don't you play the best guy. Morrow would be the first to tell anybody that. You'd insult him if you started him and he knew he wasn't the best.

I like the look of that top 5 though, and there's decent depth to support it, especially in the 2nd half of the year as Hutchinson and Drabek are back.

[TitovFTW]

Go with whosever having the best spring. Fun argument to he had instead of just a consensus number 1 and then a huge drop off

[secol]

Originally Posted by The Big Chill

It's possible he could play there, but he loses most of his value. He is so valuable now because its really hard to find above average hitting catchers.

i know, but i'm just saying even if his knees couldn't take catching anymore, he's still pretty close to an elite first baseman prospect

[bluejays]

My opinon of the rumored Dickey deal. Firstly, to me it's a huge overpayment. Granted the argument will always be there that prospects have a huge chance of busting etc etc, but you have to look at the player an individual rather than the title, "prospect". By all accounts D'Arnaud is the real deal, who can use a little polish with his bat. Syndergaard there are a little more question marks about, but it's pretty fair to say he's a borderline blue-chip 2-3 pitch prospect. He's still at least 2 seasons away from being in the majors. Anyway, particulars of each prospect I'll put aside, because they've been beaten to death. While I may not be a GM, from all accounts D'Arnaud is highly, highly regarded around the league. The argument is not whether he'll make it, but it's what others think of his ability. Other GM's seem to be very high on him. When a prospect is thought of so highly, his trade value goes up, fair to say? When other GM's apparently inquired about TDA they were turned away saying he wasn't available, but now that AA wants Dickey, he's bending over backwards to get him. To me, this package can get a legit classic fastball ace, but it likely has everything to do with Alex focusing on the rare knuckleball pitcher. I really can't understand the gall the NYM's GM has to ask for both prospects though. He's simply not in a great bargaining position when his player is going to walk in the offseason, so how is AA not seeing this and calling his bluff? AA has the second best C prospect in baseball (probably after Will Myers, but I digress). That and some 3rd string prospect should be more than enough to get a pending solid pitcher. If TDA was available, he should be fielding calls to see what aces are out there for this same package, because it's a really high price to pay, when really they don't have to.

[TitovFTW]

Originally Posted by secol

i know, but i'm just saying even if his knees couldn't take catching anymore, he's still pretty close to an elite first baseman prospect

Elite 1st baseman? No. But unlike JPA, he still could play the position with the type of bat he has. D'Arnaud is going to be a really good player likely no matter where he plays

[TitovFTW]

People need to realize that Dickey helping the Jays to the playoffs and D'Arnaud having a very good career are not mutually exclusive things.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by secol

i know, but i'm just saying even if his knees couldn't take catching anymore, he's still pretty close to an elite first baseman prospect

He's far from a sure thing at 1B. TDA likely becomes a good MLB hitter, but he doesn't have the power to guarantee he'll be productive at 1B/DH. He can still be productive without the power, but if other aspects of his hitting don't develop at the MLB level he won't have the bat to hang at 1B, IMO.

Considering his injury history and the fact that he's coming off of knee surgery, there is a lot of risk involved with TDA that no one has really talked about. To my knowledge, he hasn't played a game since his injury so there is some uncertainty in how he bounces back.

[GirlySports]

Nice story about how the Mets are stupid with how they dealt with Dickey.

[Saint Troy]

Love it, AA selling high on his most hyped prospect who is a catcher coming off major knee surgery. Nice to see the Jays finally putting on their big boy pants in the AL East.

[d_phaneuf]

Originally Posted by secol

i still think it's too much....also what why would he TDA not be a good first baseman if his knee does pose a problem? his AAA stats are fairly comparable to former top 1B prospects (rizzo, alonso)

Originally Posted by secol

i know, but i'm just saying even if his knees couldn't take catching anymore, he's still pretty close to an elite first baseman prospect

Originally Posted by The Big Chill

It's possible he could play there, but he loses most of his value. He is so valuable now because its really hard to find above average hitting catchers.

he's a top 10 prospect right now

he's probably barely top 50 as a 1B

this is what was wrote by John Sickels after the trade, Keith Law's writeup on him on the prospect update was pretty much the same

D'Arnaud is a right-handed hitter, listed at 6-2, 195, bon February 10, 1989. Scouts like his power and anticipate he'll be a significant threat with the bat, plausibly being a 20-homer a year guy. He's hit for average over the last two seasons, although his home parks have been friendly for offense and he's probably not a .300 hitter in the majors. His plate discipline isn't the best and he doesn't draw many walks, but he keeps his strikeout rates under control. His defense is well-regarded, with his mobility, arm strength, and leadership skills all ranked as solid or better.

Although he's not perfect, D'Arnaud has a good balance of offensive and defensive skills. He is either the best or second-best catching prospect in baseball, with Mike Zunino of the Seattle Mariners being his only serious competitor.

his value is based on position, which is so high because the position is so rare to have elite guys

[TitovFTW]

He's a good prospect, coming off knee surgery. As much as he could be a valuable and good catcher during his career, I don't see D'Arnaud being that can't miss prospect the Jays let get away.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by TitovFTW

But the trade market for pitching is a lot different now. Look at what Gonzalez, Latos and Shields all got back.

Johnson very well could walk. But if ownership is willing to spend on Dickey and everyone else, no reason to think Jays wouldn't offer up the moon to keep him.

Not sure I get the "pay money like Dickey was a FA" and also the fact that you're trading for him, guarantees his services as opposed to bidding on a free agent. Of course you're going to have to give up a lot for him, especially with the value he has only making 5 million next season, less then John Buck.

The other factor is that Halladay had control of the situation in that deal. He could basically tell the Blue Jays where he was going to be traded because as a 10 and 5 player he could invoke his no trade clause. So that has a huge impact on what a team can get in a trade.