2012-2013 Toronto Blue Jays Off Season Thread - Page 49 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

TitovFTW · 12-14-2012, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nik-

I'm not really big on giving up Gose for Dickey either

If Gose learns to hit, he's an All Star the rest of his career. But he's still striking out a lot, and does not have the power to match it. It's also a huge question mark to ever see him being able to hit left handed pitching, and you can't really platoon your starting CF. I'd give up Gose much faster then I'd give up D'Arnaud.

It's taken me awhile to come around to a trade like this. I had a lot of ignorance towards Knuckleball pitchers and Dickey's last 3 seasons. If you can get a player of his talent and you're trying to win a championship, I'm not sure I'd object to Gose or D'Arnaud being in this trade (not both)

If the reports of Baltimore and the Rangers both pulling out today are true, it means the asking price is still really high. Which means some people might want to prepare to be dissapointed with the players the Jays give up.

TitovFTW · 12-14-2012, 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moon

Last year he was but not sure about the other years and certainly not any time before when he sucked.

Not really a fan of knuckleballers all that much and a lot of reason guys haven;t fallen off is that they haven't been that good (recent guys).

Just not that much to indicate that Dickey will replicate his year from last year or that he is that good of a pitcher.

Is it really fair to judge a player that changes his stuff around in that drastic of a way, to his previous seasons? You are a totally different pitcher in every aspect.

And the two seasons before he was a #1 IMO, or something very close to it.

And I'd certainly say the last 3 seasons are more then a big enough sample size to say he will continue to pitch well. His Knuckleball has an incredible swinging strike ratio

moon · 12-14-2012, 07:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TitovFTW

Is it really fair to judge a player that changes his stuff around in that drastic of a way, to his previous seasons? You are a totally different pitcher in every aspect.

And the two seasons before he was a #1 IMO, or something very close to it.

And I'd certainly say the last 3 seasons are more then a big enough sample size to say he will continue to pitch well. His Knuckleball has an incredible swinging strike ratio

Maybe not fair but also not that its not much to go on to say that it will last (in my view) either.

TitovFTW · 12-14-2012, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moon

Maybe not fair but also not that its not much to go on to say that it will last (in my view) either.

I guess we disagree that 3 seasons is not enough of a sample size. Is that really a view, which you're welcome to have, based in statistics at all though? Or is it just an observation that he sucked and now he's good, but he might not be good for that long because...?

d_phaneuf · 12-14-2012, 07:56 PM

Losing TDA would be hard but I still do it

this team is now built to win now, with a legit chance to do so, for the first time in 20 years

if you add in a pitcher who has had a very good last 3 years (last year was his best yes but he was very good the 2 prior), who will eat innings, and because he's a knuckleballer could go for another 5+ years you have to do it

moon · 12-14-2012, 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TitovFTW

I guess we disagree that 3 seasons is not enough of a sample size. Is that really a view, which you're welcome to have, based in statistics at all though? Or is it just an observation that he sucked and now he's good, but he might not be good for that long because...?

A little column a and a little column b. Don't really care if it is a view based on statistics or not.

Don't think he sucks just think he is a 3/4/5 going forward more likely than a top guy.

KootenayFlamesFan · 12-14-2012, 08:23 PM

Per sources, D'arnaud was a "must have" during winter mtgs for deal w TOR to happen. Unclear whether its Mets or jays who will blink on that

https://twitter.com/MartinoNYDN/stat...35727896530944

Matty81 · 12-14-2012, 09:51 PM

Can't even say how disappointed I'd be if they traded TDA for a Dickey. A prospect with his pedigree at his position should be the center of a deal for a young Cy Young contender like a Felix Hernandez, not a 38 year old one who is a knuckleballer to boot.

And just to be clear, I'm not crapping on Dickey, he'd be a fine 3rd starter on a decent team, but the Jays should be building a contender for the long run, not going all in for one or two seasons. D'Arnaud is a huge part of the future, and if he isn't, swap him up for someone who can be part of the core for the next half decade or a young front line arm, not some fossil at the tail end of his career, no matter how good.

Matty81 · 12-14-2012, 09:55 PM

Jesus, and the rumor that's going around is D'Arnaud, Syndergaard and another player. Just shoot me if so.

TitovFTW · 12-14-2012, 09:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matty81

Can't even say how disappointed I'd be if they traded TDA for a Dickey. A prospect with his pedigree at his position should be the center of a deal for a young Cy Young contender like a Felix Hernandez, not a 38 year old one who is a knuckleballer to boot.

And just to be clear, I'm not crapping on Dickey, he'd be a fine 3rd starter on a decent team, but the Jays should be building a contender for the long run, not going all in for one or two seasons. D'Arnaud is a huge part of the future, and if he isn't, swap him up for someone who can be part of the core for the next half decade or a young front line arm, not some fossil at the tail end of his career, no matter how good.

I can't disagree with a lot of things you say. I would say that 3-4 years of Dickey isn't nothing. I think I'm just as high as you are on D'Arnaud, I'm just also a believer that Dickey would give the Jays really good value for more then just one season. I really, really, reallly hope they keep D'Arnaud though, just so when i watch Jays games for the next decade, it will be him at catcher and not the brutal JPA.

TitovFTW · 12-14-2012, 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matty81

Jesus, and the rumor that's going around is D'Arnaud, Syndergaard and another player. Just shoot me if so.

Source on this one? Have not heard it yet

Matty81 · 12-14-2012, 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TitovFTW

Source on this one? Have not heard it yet

It's only hearsay at this point thank god, twitter rounds from poor sources.

Hopefully just Mets fans building it up the way we did with the Regehr return.

TitovFTW · 12-14-2012, 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matty81

It's only hearsay at this point thank god, twitter rounds from poor sources.

Hopefully just Mets fans building it up the way we did with the Regehr return.

The only D'Arnaud rumor at all was reported by a "source" who said he had a gut feeling Travis would be involved. Besides that, there's literally been nothing close to even so much as a report about a player that might be involved from the Jays. Nobody the Mets are said to of "liked" (D'Arnaud is more just common sense) The scary thing is if you're hoping the Jays keep him, is that the Orioles and Rangers both dropped out today because of the asking price. If the Jays are in it, one could draw a conclusion that it's because of D'Arnaud being included. I just can't see AA just doing that much damage to his Top 10 prospects in one offseason, after he spent so much time building it up.

If I had to choose between giving up Syndergaard or D'Arnaud, I'd choose D'Arnaud, only because I think I romanticize the idea about the influx of young Jays pitchers in 2 years. If the Mets value Gose enough to be the center piece, I'm making that trade a 100x out of a 100.

Matty81 · 12-14-2012, 10:23 PM

Gose I could live with... although honestly I would rather not see them trade any more of their top prospects for a guy who will be retired in 3 or 4 years. The goal should be long term sustainability not flaring out in one year, especially when you have no idea how the new roster will mesh and what the results will be like. Imagine if the team craters and they've traded two more top prospects for Dickey.

If you want to spend 14 mil a year, sign Edwin Jackson for nothing, or better yet, wait until the trade deadline and pick up a rental when you're certain the team is going to contend. Garza, Lincecum, Floyd, Shields... lots of decent rental/FA arms out there this year

The Jays aren't the Yankees or the Red Sox, they need to maintain decent farm depth if they want to build something that lasts. And if they insist on trading a D'Arnaud, they need promising or established cost controlled players back with lots of contributing years or significant trade value ahead of them.

Sylvanfan · 12-14-2012, 10:28 PM

Seems like too manta rumours for it to be a Jays deal. Anthopolus is pretty at keeping these things under wraps until the deal is made.

jschick88 · 12-14-2012, 10:32 PM

Sources: D'Arnaud very much in play in Dickey talks between #BlueJays and #Mets. Deal would be bigger, multiple pieces going both ways.

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal

TitovFTW · 12-14-2012, 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matty81

Gose I could live with... although honestly I would rather not see them trade any more of their top prospects for a guy who will be retired in 3 or 4 years. The goal should be long term sustainability not flaring out in one year, especially when you have no idea how the new roster will mesh and what the results will be like. Imagine if the team craters and they've traded two more top prospects for Dickey.

If you want to spend 14 mil a year, sign Edwin Jackson for nothing, or better yet, wait until the trade deadline and pick up a rental when you're certain the team is going to contend. Garza, Lincecum, Floyd, Shields... lots of rental arms out there this year

The Jays aren't the Yankees or the Red Sox, they need to maintain decent farm depth if they want to build something that lasts. And if they insist on trading a D'Arnaud, they need promising or established cost controlled players back with lots of contributing years or significant trade value ahead of them.

Hope you don't mind me playing devils advocate here but here goes.

Edwin Jackson is going to get 5 years and big money. I'd say that's more franchise handicapping then a D'Arnaud for Dickey trade. Especially for a guy who's about as average a pitcher as you can get, but stays healthy.

I think there is value in Dickey for not just one season but 3-4. That's possibly 3-4 seasons of a top of the rotation pitcher. There's some real value there and not just short term, the Jays don't win next season they're screwed in an LAA type of way.

You bring up the trade deadline pitchers, you're likely still going to have to give up value somewhat close to D'Arnaud and you get barely a quarter of service time (from a pitcher none the less) I think there's much more value in a full season of Dickey.

I think a lot of what your saying is fair but you're sort of selling Dickey short IMO. I think I might take him for 3-4 seasons over a #3 or #4 ceiling type of young guy with control.

Caged Great · 12-14-2012, 10:34 PM

Surprisingly after trading a bunch of players in the Happ/miami trades, the Jays still have one of the top 10 farm teams likely in the 5-8 range give or take. We also have the 10th overall pick and the equivalently good 2nd round pick. All that those trades did was remove some of the guys that were on the high end of the system as most of them have equivalent guys below them coming up. Hechavarria has the guy we signed who was the top international free agent (can't remember his name off the top of my head), Nicolino --> Smoral/Norris, Marisnick --> Davis/Alford, Alvarez --> Nolin/Hutchison (let alone the pro guys that were acquired), Comer --> DeJong etc.

We still have the same depth, it's just they are a year or two further away than the guys we've dealt, which is fine due to the upgrades on the pro team. It also allows for guys like Osuna and Tirado to move up if their performance shows it being worth it.

TitovFTW · 12-14-2012, 10:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Seems like too manta rumours for it to be a Jays deal. Anthopolus is pretty at keeping these things under wraps until the deal is made.

Yeah but JP Riccardi is the anti AA in terms of information being leaked to the media. And the NY Sports Media is a force to be reckoned with in itself. This is all types of bizarre though.

Matty81 · 12-14-2012, 10:35 PM

Ya there's so much speculation. Ike Davis, RA Dickey for D'Arnaud, Gose and Lind is the latest orange julius rumor.

Am really hoping this falls through. I'm sure the Jays would be very good next year with Dickey but a 38 year old pitcher like RA Dickey isn't the player you blow up your farm for.