2012-2013 Toronto Blue Jays Off Season Thread

[TitovFTW]

If someone blew me away with an offer if I were AA, I'd trade JPA. Career .275 OBP and really has not shown any chance of showing a better eye at the plate. No way he'd be a Blue Jay if it wasn't for D'Arnaud getting injured last season. You'd have to get a very strong piece back though, likely part of a larger trade, but if some team out there over values JP, then why not? I don't think the drop off between him and Buck is anything that would hurt this team.

[ShaolinFlame]

Originally Posted by TitovFTW

If someone blew me away with an offer if I were AA, I'd trade JPA. Career .275 OBP and really has not shown any chance of showing a better eye at the plate. No way he'd be a Blue Jay if it wasn't for D'Arnaud getting injured last season. You'd have to get a very strong piece back though, likely part of a larger trade, but if some team out there over values JP, then why not? I don't think the drop off between him and Buck is anything that would hurt this team.

JP isn't great by any means, but John Buck is actually an offensive black hole. He will give you maybe 15 HRs, but his line last year was 192/297/374/644 FFS. JP has never OPSed less than 700 in his two year career. John Buck hasn't OPSed more than 700 in two years. And even then he had several other years less than 700 (over his 9 year career), albeit with a few nice outliers (one of which got him PAID!).

The one thing I do like about John Buck is the higher OBP, since the rest of this lineup can seriously mash. But the rest of the lineup can also seriously get on base, which may lend more to JPs higher average and better power. It definitely goes both ways (acceptable platoon - maybe?).

Either way, I can't believe John Buck as a starting catcher in the NL central, let alone the AL East. Oh and his arm is crap too. And don't even go look at the respective WAR between them... (It's embarrassingly tilted towards JPs short career). I can't really remember how well he called a game though, does anyone?

In conclusion, John Buck is a seriously bad catcher yo. The return on this trade would need to be either a 4 WAR SP or a better catcher on a shorter term contract. And if it is a SP, you better sell some crap from the farm in order to upgrade on the front end behind the plate (or pray that TDA magically becomes amazing and goes all 'Buster Posey'). Otherwise you're in for a seriously frustrating year if you plan on seeing John Buck start 120+ games.

[moon]

Originally Posted by TitovFTW

If someone blew me away with an offer if I were AA, I'd trade JPA. Career .275 OBP and really has not shown any chance of showing a better eye at the plate. No way he'd be a Blue Jay if it wasn't for D'Arnaud getting injured last season. You'd have to get a very strong piece back though, likely part of a larger trade, but if some team out there over values JP, then why not? I don't think the drop off between him and Buck is anything that would hurt this team.

What confuses me about Jays fans is they talk about what a bad player JPA is and then want a big piece back.

If he is so bad why would other teams give up a ton to get him?

[TitovFTW]

Originally Posted by moon

What confuses me about Jays fans is they talk about what a bad player JPA is and then want a big piece back.

If he is so bad why would other teams give up a ton to get him?

Because lots of times baseball teams make stupid decisions based on outdated statistics like homeruns and see that JPA has 4 years of club control left and so many teams have a hole to fill at the catcher position. So the thinking is he's not likely to be moved, but if a team was to overvalue him, the Jays could perhaps maximize his value. I don't think any Jays fans think he would be worthy of a big piece in a 1 for 1 player trade, but perhaps a part in a larger trade.

[Flickered Flame]

Did JP not make JPA a first round pick back in 07 or whenever it was? If so, I'd keep an eye on the Mets and Jays. Maybe Dickey for JPA + someone else?

[TitovFTW]

Originally Posted by ShaolinFlame

JP isn't great by any means, but John Buck is actually an offensive black hole. He will give you maybe 15 HRs, but his line last year was 192/297/374/644 FFS. JP has never OPSed less than 700 in his two year career. John Buck hasn't OPSed more than 700 in two years. And even then he had several other years less than 700 (over his 9 year career), albeit with a few nice outliers (one of which got him PAID!).

The one thing I do like about John Buck is the higher OBP, since the rest of this lineup can seriously mash. But the rest of the lineup can also seriously get on base, which may lend more to JPs higher average and better power. It definitely goes both ways (acceptable platoon - maybe?).

Either way, I can't believe John Buck as a starting catcher in the NL central, let alone the AL East. Oh and his arm is crap too. And don't even go look at the respective WAR between them... (It's embarrassingly tilted towards JPs short career). I can't really remember how well he called a game though, does anyone?

In conclusion, John Buck is a seriously bad catcher yo. The return on this trade would need to be either a 4 WAR SP or a better catcher on a shorter term contract. And if it is a SP, you better sell some crap from the farm in order to upgrade on the front end behind the plate (or pray that TDA magically becomes amazing and goes all 'Buster Posey'). Otherwise you're in for a seriously frustrating year if you plan on seeing John Buck start 120+ games.

No question John Buck is god awful. I'm not sure the Jays could possibly get worst defensively with him, I don't remember how he was at calling games however. In my mind, if somehow the Jays were to trade away Arencibia it would mean D'Arnaud would be with the big team either opening day or very early on in the season. There's no way John Buck is playing 100 plus games the Blue Jays starting catcher. Life would be a lot easier if Travis had just stayed healthy last season and JP would be as good as gone.

AA seems to be pretty honest when he talks about wanting to see D'Arnaud actually get some time in AAA this season and force their hand. I think from both our posts we can pretty much agree that any offer for JP would have to offer the Jays a significant upgrade in the rotation.

Projecting Arencibia going forward as a catcher, best case scenario is an average major league catcher. He's never been able to draw walks, in both the minors and majors and shows no signs of improving that way.

Likely scenario we see playing out is the Jays start the season with Arencibia and Buck. D'Arnaud gets called up halfway through the season. His bat is good enough you could DH him at times to get him playing time, as I think AA did mention that, although I'd much rather him learn the position at the major league level as he is the long term answer at the position. The second most likely scenario is the Jays trade Arencibia, likely along with others, for a Starting Pitcher and bring in a catcher either through that trade or a separate transaction. And then the third would be the Jays start the season with D'Arnaud and Buck.

Jays would be in a better spot with a major league ready D'Arnaud but they do have JP on a very team friendly, controlled contract and there is a need for starting catchers. One thing we've heard expressed by AA this offseason is that nobody is untouchable. JP would be no exception to that

[TitovFTW]

Originally Posted by Flickered Flame

Did JP not make JPA a first round pick back in 07 or whenever it was? If so, I'd keep an eye on the Mets and Jays. Maybe Dickey for JPA + someone else?

The Riccardi angle does make sense and the Jays seem keen on not wanting to give a pitcher a 5-7 year contract as they think highly of Hutchison and Drabek, so from that it would make sense. Dickey, while he'll be looking for some big time money, will not be looking for a really long contract due to his age.

The way AA works though, I don't see it happening. The thought has to be in the back of his mind, Josh Johnson might be gone after this season. A big time financial commitment even to a pitcher for just 2-3 years, could handicap you going forward as it is so hard to predict Dickey. He's an awesome story but he just had a career year in every statistic and a huge jump in his K rate. It is a huge unknown how that Knuckleball would transfer over to the hitter friendly Dome.

Also, the Jays would certainly have to give up some young prospect or prospects of value in a trade for him. If AA was to give up another quality young player, I believe it would be for a much more long-term investment.

I think Dickey could be moved now, as someone mentioned the David Wright re-signing at least saves them from any PR backlash. The Dodgers would make a ton of sense. Pitcher friendly ballpark, willing to pay him and need another starter.

[TitovFTW]

Here's a great quote from AA

“If you look at his left-right splits, if you look at him as a player that doesn’t face the left-handers, he’ll only face right-handers, close to an .800 OPS, which is a pretty good player … if you use him only against right-handers, I still think he’ll be a very good player.”

Clearly the Jays are going to be going after a platoon player hard for Lind. Baseball is easily my favorite offseason of all the other sports and it's just awesome to read all the rumors and everything else that go on at the Winter Meetings.

[TitovFTW]

http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseba...f-baseball-gms

“I think one of the things with Alex is that he does a lot of the deals himself,” says Longo. “There are other organizations where the GM has the assistant GM do it, or he has a group of people he consults and the more people you talk to about it, the more chances there are for a leak.”
Sosnick, who called Anthopoulos “very anal about stuff,” says it’s all part of his compulsive nature.
“He makes an unlimited amount of phone calls on any player who’s out there. He investigates every single possibility. When there’s a minor-league free agent that he wants, he’ll make a call on it himself, which is unheard of. He’s in the middle of everything. When it comes to turning over stones, he’s an animal. I bet he makes 20 calls to one, compared to some other GMs. He’s merciless.”

[jschick88]

#BlueJays claim Eli Whiteside. Becomes fourth catcher. Non-tendered Bobby Wilson last week. Still could trade Arencibia or Buck.
https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal

[TitovFTW]

The asking price for Dickey is high and , Jays have no chance at all.

[Caged Great]

I'd trade JPA and Rasmus + Minor B prospect like Knecht for Dickey, provided we can negotiate a contract extension. We have depth at those positions, so we could move those guys and not see a major dent from the pro team.

[The Big Chill]

I just don't have faith that a 38 yr old Knuckle baller coming off a career year will have the ability to repeat that performance next year and beyond.

[RedHot25]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

I'd trade JPA and Rasmus + Minor B prospect like Knecht for Dickey, provided we can negotiate a contract extension. .

Blech.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by The Big Chill

I just don't have faith that a 38 yr old Knuckle baller coming off a career year will have the ability to repeat that performance next year and beyond.

Knucklers are not normal pitchers, like Wakefield. He's got about 7-8 years left easily as odd as it sounds when talking about a 38 year old pitcher.

Also, knucklers actually prefer playing in a domed stadium as their pitches down get affected by the wind.

He's been fairly decent for the past couple seasons, and would seriously screw with the other team's timing benefiting not only him, but also Morrow/Johnson as well.

I agree it's an overpay, but I don't really see TDA + Gose being a large step down production wise from Rasmus and JPA.

[jschick88]

Just listened to AA on the Fan590. Said he is not close to signing a FA or in trade talks. Happy with the group he is at the moment.

[TitovFTW]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Knucklers are not normal pitchers, like Wakefield. He's got about 7-8 years left easily as odd as it sounds when talking about a 38 year old pitcher.

Also, knucklers actually prefer playing in a domed stadium as their pitches down get affected by the wind.

He's been fairly decent for the past couple seasons, and would seriously screw with the other team's timing benefiting not only him, but also Morrow/Johnson as well.

I agree it's an overpay, but I don't really see TDA + Gose being a large step down production wise from Rasmus and JPA.

I see JPA instead of TDA as a huge step down and also possibly 6 years of control in Gose as a great asset for Rasmus, who remains a big question mark.

[bluejays]

Gose has a long way to go with his bat too. His bat is severely lacking power and average, so I really hope he works on his strength and pitch selection. After seeing Gose's arm in person, I really don't have any doubt this guy has the best arm in the league. It's absolutely spectacular with little effort. Rasmus is good enough to be a stop gap for now, but Gose to me, is still 2 seasons away from being an everyday player.

[jschick88]

Elliott: "Am told" Arencibia and Gose gets the Jays Dickey, "but Mets still looking for better offers."



https://twitter.com/BringVottoHome

[troutman]

Would the Jays be interested in free agent Brian Wilson?