Calgary Centre Federal By-election - Nov 26 (UPDATE - Crockatt wins for CPC)

[Bigtime]

I think a lot of credit has to go to the Turner campaign team, a lot of the same hyper-engaged volunteers that were on the Nenshi campaign. Their enthusiasm and belief in him is obviously paying dividends.

This is going to be an interesting two weeks.

[Slava]

The problem for Turner is that its the Green party and a lot of disenchanted CPC voters would rather stay home than vote for a party with a leader who has come out wanting to ban WiFi, or a party that would pretty clearly be terrible for the oil sands growth and oil industry here in Alberta in general.

I would rather see the CPC lose a seat, for a lot of reasons, but I would prefer a true moderate in there.

[Bigtime]

^^^ True, but electing Turner only gives the Greens two seats, so all of that boogeyman stuff (I don't follow them at all as a party) will not come to fruition should he get in. I think Turner would be that true moderate who just happens to have some excellent ideas on how to grow the sustainable resource industry in our province.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

^^^ True, but electing Turner only gives the Greens two seats, so all of that boogeyman stuff (I don't follow them at all as a party) will not come to fruition should he get in. I think Turner would be that true moderate who just happens to have some excellent ideas on how to grow the sustainable resource industry in our province.

Its not just "boogeyman" stuff though. I guess I just find it hard to believe that people would vote against their own best interests just to prove a point of some sort.

Its not a comment on Turner either; I would be thrilled if either he or Locke wins! I just think that when there are two progressives with a chance that the more moderate would get my backing. When I look at the GPC platform though its not only sparse on details, but you can see that many of the points in it are simply platitudes and not fleshed out policies at all.

I know that Turner supporters are fond to point to similarities to the Turner campaign and the Nenshi campaign. They might end in the same victory from behind, I have no idea. The major difference though is that Nenshi had a full slate of ideas and policies; he ran on a very specific platform with fleshed out ideas and how they would be implemented. Like it or not though, federal politics is still about party politics and the GPC platform isn't nearly as fleshed out as the Nenshi campaign was.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by Slava

I know that Turner supporters are fond to point to similarities to the Turner campaign and the Nenshi campaign. They might end in the same victory from behind, I have no idea. The major difference though is that Nenshi had a full slate of ideas and policies; he ran on a very specific platform with fleshed out ideas and how they would be implemented. Like it or not though, federal politics is still about party politics and the GPC platform isn't nearly as fleshed out as the Nenshi campaign was.

Better Ideas #5, #7, and #9 were especially great.

[jtfrogger]

Originally Posted by Slava

Its not just "boogeyman" stuff though. I guess I just find it hard to believe that people would vote against their own best interests just to prove a point of some sort.

Right now, I am leaning towards voting for Turner. Neither Crockatt nor Locke have done anything to make me think otherwise. I do not believe that it would be against my best interests, nor do would I do it to prove a point.

I think there are a lot of positive things in the Green platform, but as a whole they do not have a pragmatic approach to the oil/gas industry. In the previous federal election, I ruled them out on that point alone. So, I am thinking long and hard on whether I want to vote for them. But it will still be a conservative majority after the by-election regardless of what happens. I think there are a couple of positive spinoffs of having a second Green MP and having that MP from Calgary. For one, I think Turner is a good individual to have as a representative. I would not vote for him otherwise. If all of the candidates were weak, my vote would be based on the party they represent and the Greens would probably not get my vote. I think he would listen to his constituents, and would start to understand the concerns of Calgarians. I think this would have a good probability of having a practical approach to the petroleum industry start to seep into the Green Party. If this happens, the voice of the Green Party becomes twice as loud (which is still a whisper) and potentially a lot more practical. That could only be good for Canada.

Its not a comment on Turner either; I would be thrilled if either he or Locke wins! I just think that when there are two progressives with a chance that the more moderate would get my backing. When I look at the GPC platform though its not only sparse on details, but you can see that many of the points in it are simply platitudes and not fleshed out policies at all.

I know that Turner supporters are fond to point to similarities to the Turner campaign and the Nenshi campaign. They might end in the same victory from behind, I have no idea. The major difference though is that Nenshi had a full slate of ideas and policies; he ran on a very specific platform with fleshed out ideas and how they would be implemented. Like it or not though, federal politics is still about party politics and the GPC platform isn't nearly as fleshed out as the Nenshi campaign was.

As I mentioned above, I agree with your comment about the Green platform. However, the entire party platform is a lot less relevant in this by-election than it would be for a federal election.

[Fire]

Originally Posted by Slava

Pretty clear that the progressives should align behind Locke and oust the CPC here. There is a 5% MOE here, but even with that they could take the riding.

This is the kind of thinking that got the most corrupt provincial party in my lifetime elected in Alberta.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by jtfrogger

Right now, I am leaning towards voting for Turner. Neither Crockatt nor Locke have done anything to make me think otherwise. I do not believe that it would be against my best interests, nor do would I do it to prove a point.

I think there are a lot of positive things in the Green platform, but as a whole they do not have a pragmatic approach to the oil/gas industry. In the previous federal election, I ruled them out on that point alone. So, I am thinking long and hard on whether I want to vote for them. But it will still be a conservative majority after the by-election regardless of what happens. I think there are a couple of positive spinoffs of having a second Green MP and having that MP from Calgary. For one, I think Turner is a good individual to have as a representative. I would not vote for him otherwise. If all of the candidates were weak, my vote would be based on the party they represent and the Greens would probably not get my vote. I think he would listen to his constituents, and would start to understand the concerns of Calgarians. I think this would have a good probability of having a practical approach to the petroleum industry start to seep into the Green Party. If this happens, the voice of the Green Party becomes twice as loud (which is still a whisper) and potentially a lot more practical. That could only be good for Canada.



As I mentioned above, I agree with your comment about the Green platform. However, the entire party platform is a lot less relevant in this by-election than it would be for a federal election.

This is exactly why 1Calgary Centre needs to succeed. The center-minded candidates in general are likely to split the vote amongst themselves and let the CPC win in a walk. Things might have tightened up (if you believe the poll with an enormous margin of error) or with that margin of error they might not have. (Crockatt could be as high as 37% and Locke as low as 27%).

I totally understand what you're saying about the platform and that its not a factor for you; it isn't for every case or every person. I don't have any issues with Turner or the fact that is a good person who would be a good MP. Same goes for Locke. At the end of the day though, I just care about winning, so I'd prefer that people line up with the one with the best chance and make that happen. Poll after poll shows that is the Liberals and Harvey Locke.

Originally Posted by Fire

This is the kind of thinking that got the most corrupt provincial party in my lifetime elected in Alberta.

Well I have no idea how old you are, but I would hazard a guess that they're the only political party in your lifetime. So....good news! They're also the most ethical provincial government you've seen elected! (They are for me)

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I'm not really sure what to think of that poll. Sample size is tiny--just 376. In a multi-candidate race, polls are generally less accurate anyway.

I think the real takeaway is that if we are going to pay attention to polls at all in this country, we need a lot more of them--and they need to be of higher quality.

[jtfrogger]

Originally Posted by Slava

This is exactly why 1Calgary Centre needs to succeed. The center-minded candidates in general are likely to split the vote amongst themselves and let the CPC win in a walk. Things might have tightened up (if you believe the poll with an enormous margin of error) or with that margin of error they might not have. (Crockatt could be as high as 37% and Locke as low as 27%).

I totally understand what you're saying about the platform and that its not a factor for you; it isn't for every case or every person. I don't have any issues with Turner or the fact that is a good person who would be a good MP. Same goes for Locke. At the end of the day though, I just care about winning, so I'd prefer that people line up with the one with the best chance and make that happen. Poll after poll shows that is the Liberals and Harvey Locke.

I am not as strongly against the Conservatives as you are. In fact, I am more likely to vote for Crockatt than I am for Locke. One of the reasons that I like Turner, is he really gets what it is like to live in an urban centre. The things I like about the Green party platform align with my belief in great walk-able communities. Not only does Locke not live in the riding, he doesn't even live in the city. That is really sad for a mainstream party trying to win a seat right in the middle of the city.

[jtfrogger]

I've updated the first post to include some debates and some minor updates to candidate info based on this blog post.

There is a debate tonight, but it is focused on a single topic and they are charging a $5 admission. I would like to catch a debate, but it will not be this one. Also, I would prefer to see Crockatt, who has yet to acknowledge any of the debates.

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by jtfrogger

I've updated the first post to include some debates and some minor updates to candidate info based on this blog post.

There is a debate tonight, but it is focused on a single topic and they are charging a $5 admission. I would like to catch a debate, but it will not be this one. Also, I would prefer to see Crockatt, who has yet to acknowledge any of the debates.

Don't hold your breath on that one...

[c.t.ner]

As another heads up, there is also a Cliff Bungalow-Mission scheduled for tomorrow. There hasn't been much information posted on it, but it could be a good opportunity to see the candidates in action. (Well some of the candidates)

https://www.facebook.com/groups/110644382362/?fref=ts

[jtfrogger]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

Don't hold your breath on that one...

She still has a chance at my vote, but it is slowly slipping away. I am sure there are many other voters that open to being influenced. She might change her mind on the debates once it sinks in that her opponents are gaining momentum. By then, it may be too late.

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

As another heads up, there is also a Cliff Bungalow-Mission scheduled for tomorrow. There hasn't been much information posted on it, but it could be a good opportunity to see the candidates in action. (Well some of the candidates)

https://www.facebook.com/groups/110644382362/?fref=ts

I've added that, as well as a few others that I found on the candidate websites.

[Table 5]

Got a really nice mailer from Chris Turner today...frankly, I had no idea our are was part of the district. Not a lot of facts and content, but the way it was written (by him apparently) was pretty refreshing.

[mariners_fever]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Got a really nice mailer from Chris Turner today...frankly, I had no idea our are was part of the district. Not a lot of facts and content, but the way it was written (by him apparently) was pretty refreshing.

The chances that he wrote it are slim-to-none, no matter how much it looks otherwise.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by mariners_fever

The chances that he wrote it are slim-to-none, no matter how much it looks otherwise.

I don't believe that at all. He's a writer, the chances he wouldn't write his own campaign literature (particularly his primary mailer) are slim-to-none.

[photon]

Lol I had no idea Ben Christensen was the lawyer from occupy calgary. Between reliving that and reading his twitter and facebook it's been a very entertaining evening thanks CP!

EDIT: Oh man he's a conspiracy theorist too, trying really really hard not to troll him on twitter.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

I'm not really sure what to think of that poll. Sample size is tiny--just 376. In a multi-candidate race, polls are generally less accurate anyway.

I think the real takeaway is that if we are going to pay attention to polls at all in this country, we need a lot more of them--and they need to be of higher quality.

The margin of error is what you need to be looking at (which, of course, is derived from sample size). And the margin of error, while bigger than it would be in a higher quality poll, is not all that bad.

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

As another heads up, there is also a Cliff Bungalow-Mission scheduled for tomorrow. There hasn't been much information posted on it, but it could be a good opportunity to see the candidates in action. (Well some of the candidates)

https://www.facebook.com/groups/110644382362/?fref=ts

FFWD has reported that Crockatt is attending. Must be scared!

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by SebC

The margin of error is what you need to be looking at (which, of course, is derived from sample size). And the margin of error, while bigger than it would be in a higher quality poll, is not all that bad.

FFWD has reported that Crockatt is attending. Must be scared!

I agree, but in a three-way race, especially where it's possibly close, a 5% MOE is pretty big.

On the other hand, it does show a trend of tightening since their last poll. It also makes me feel like I should wait for one more before deciding whether Locke or Turner gets my vote...

Locke is obviously doing better now--but I feel like Turner's campaign is way more visible. I see more canvassers, more lawn signs, etc. etc. In a byelection, turnout is critical.

Mind you, I see a lot of Crockatt lawn signs in my area too.