Rube's NFL Gambling Odyssey - Page 8 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

HOOT · 10-01-2012, 01:52 PM

I like way too many away teams this week.

rubecube · 10-01-2012, 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HOOT

I like way too many away teams this week.

The one I think you're off on is Denver @ New England. The Broncos do not match up well against the Pats. I kind of regret putting money on Atlanta. I think the Skins have a shot at home.

I think the home teams with best chances of covering this week are:

STL +1
CAR -3
NE -7
MIN -4.5
IND +7
NO -3.5

Of those 6, the only ones I'd put money down on are probably STL, MIN, and NE.

HOOT · 10-01-2012, 03:50 PM

I just feel that 7pts might be too many in a Manning vs Brady match-up especially with how weak NE pass D is.

rubecube · 10-02-2012, 02:32 PM

Pretty respectable week. 6-3 +3. Got in early on a few games because I had a hunch the lines were going to go up/down. Grabbed ATL -3 (hate this bet), PHI +3.5, CLE +10, BAL -4.5, MIN -4.5 CLE went down to +9.5, BAL to -5, and MIN -6. Also noticed NE dropped to -6.5 today, so I jumped on that as well.

HOOT · 10-02-2012, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rubecube

Pretty respectable week. 6-3 +3. Got in early on a few games because I had a hunch the lines were going to go up/down. Grabbed ATL -3 (hate this bet), PHI +3.5, CLE +10, BAL -4.5, MIN -4.5 CLE went down to +9.5, BAL to -5, and MIN -6. Also noticed NE dropped to -6.5 today, so I jumped on that as well.

I'm curious why you hate the ATL -3 pick so much after just making it, what changed your mind?

return to the red · 10-02-2012, 04:53 PM

Pools picks for this week

Mia VS Cin
GB VS Ind
Balt VS KC
Phil VS Pitt (blocked)
Cle VS NYG
Atl VS Wash (iffy)
Chi VS Jax
Sea VS Car
Ten VS Minn
Buf VS SF
Den VS NE (blocked)
SD VS NO (blocked)
Hou VS NYJ

Thoughts?

DropIt · 10-02-2012, 04:59 PM

Had a prety good week this week going 6-2 on th3e spread and 3-0 on moneyline.

Took some early games this week. Cleveland +10, Buffalo +10, Houston -9, Seattle +3, Atlanta -3, GB -7.

GirlySports · 10-04-2012, 08:31 AM

Still can't decide on anything for tonight. Both STL and ARZ's offense really get in their own way and are too unpredictable. This looks like an under, but so many points are being scored in the last two minutes of halfs right now, you really have to have a lot of reasons to bet an under these days.

I'd normally pick against ARZ... but I just don't think STL can do it. Really disappointed in how many points they left on the field against SEA.

rubecube · 10-04-2012, 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HOOT

I'm curious why you hate the ATL -3 pick so much after just making it, what changed your mind?

I didn't like how Atlanta's defense looked against Cam Newton last weekend, and I think the Shanaclan will run the same style of offense, except RGIII is better than Newton. If the Skins pound the rock with Morris and Griffin, and limit Atlanta's big plays, they could win this game.

rubecube · 10-04-2012, 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Still can't decide on anything for tonight. Both STL and ARZ's offense really get in their own way and are too unpredictable. This looks like an under, but so many points are being scored in the last two minutes of halfs right now, you really have to have a lot of reasons to bet an under these days.

I'd normally pick against ARZ... but I just don't think STL can do it. Really disappointed in how many points they left on the field against SEA.

I'm taking the Rams. The Cards basically needed special teams plays to beat them both times last year, and I think the Rams are a better team this year than they were a year ago.

rubecube · 10-04-2012, 09:27 AM

Week 4 Picks:

STL +1.5 = WIN
ATL -3 = WIN
PHI +3.5 = WN
CLE +10 = LOSS
BAL -4.5 = LOSS
MIN -4.5 = WIN
NE -6.5 = WIN
SD +3.5 = LOSS
HOU -9 = LOSS

TOTAL = 9 UNITS $92 to win $90

rubecube · 10-04-2012, 09:33 AM

Also, I wouldn't worry about being on too many away teams. Home teams are something like 11-19 ATS the last two weekends, after cleaning up the previous two weekends. This is why I think betting trends is stupid.

HOOT · 10-04-2012, 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rubecube

I didn't like how Atlanta's defense looked against Cam Newton last weekend, and I think the Shanaclan will run the same style of offense, except RGIII is better than Newton. If the Skins pound the rock with Morris and Griffin, and limit Atlanta's big plays, they could win this game.

I went with ATL -3 as well and agree with you but at the same time I wonder if having to play Newton will give them an advantage to match up against a similar QB two weeks in a row. Either way I wouldn't be suprised if it was a 60pt total, but I think ATL could win by 7pts+ margin if Ryan doesn't turn the ball over with those big plays. But I guess we will have to wait and see!

Rjcsjc62 · 10-04-2012, 03:40 PM

I'm going to try St. Louis tonight at +2.5 (1 unit)

2012 to date: 13-14-2 (-2.19 units)

HOOT · 10-04-2012, 04:42 PM

WEEK 5

Baltimore +4.5 (2U) - LOSS
Miami +4.5 (1U) - WIN
Pittsburgh -3 (1U) - LOSS
Atlanta -3 (1U) - WIN
Carolina -3 (1U) - LOSS
Tennessee ML (1U) - LOSS
Buffalo +9.5 (1U) - LOSS
Denver +7 (1U) - LOSS
New Orleans (1U) -3 - WIN
Houston -8 (1U) - LOSS
NY Jets +10 (1U) - WIN
Houston/NY Jets Over 41.5 (2U) - WIN

Betting 14U, Possible Winnings 14.28U

Week 1: Missed
Week 2: 3-3-0 (-0.34U)
Week 3: 5-3-0 (+2.00U)
Week 4: 7-2-1 (+4.63U)
Week 5: 5-7-0 (-2.42U)
TOTAL: 20-15-1 (+3.87U)

Hockey · 10-04-2012, 05:23 PM

I am still alive in the winners pool in one of my football pools and we are down to less then 10 people now after starting off with over 300. I am still alive and if I win I get a nice chunk of change. So just wanted to ask who you think would be my best bet this week.

Teams I have picked are:

Cleveland
Baltimore
Buffalo
Cincinatti

Spread is included in the winners pool, that is why I am still alive after picking Cleveland in week 1.

I have been leaning towards Houston, but -8.5 on the road scares me a little.

DropIt · 10-04-2012, 06:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HOOT

WEEK 5

Baltimore +4.5 (2U)
Atlanta -3 (1U)
Denver +7 (1U)
New Orleans -3.5 (1U) - They gotta win one game right?
Miami +4.5 (1U)

Betting 6U, Possible Winnings 5.46U

Week 1: Missed
Week 2: 3-3-0 (-0.34U)
Week 3: 5-3-0 (+2.00U)
Week 4: 7-2-1 (+4.63U)
Week 5: 0-0-0 (in progress)
TOTAL: 15-8-1 (+6.29U)

Looking at the ARZ/STL game as well, the line seems to be moving around a bit the last few hours so I may wait til game time. Won't be able to watch tonight so may not bet at all, leaning towards ARZ.

Still thinking my ML bet of the week will be on Tenessee sitting at +210, but we will see, there is small part of me that likes a Cutler choke job in the JAC game. Also looking at HOU -8.5 on the Monday nighter. I'm going golfing Sunday morning so may make more bets from the course.

I dunno. I think I would still pick the Bears to win if Jason Campbell started. Jacksonville's pass rush is all kinds of bad and despite what most think of Cutler you saw on Monday what he can do with time in the pocket. However, if Cutler did poop the bed this week, you would have to rely on Gabbert to beat up the Bears secondary on the other side of the ball as they will most definitely be playing a heavy run defense against the only threat the Jaguars have in MJD.
The Jags would really have to outperform the Bears in every asset of the game to win that one, not just a bad game from Cutler

HOOT · 10-04-2012, 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DropIt

I dunno. I think I would still pick the Bears to win if Jason Campbell started. Jacksonville's pass rush is all kinds of bad and despite what most think of Cutler you saw on Monday what he can do with time in the pocket. However, if Cutler did poop the bed this week, you would have to rely on Gabbert to beat up the Bears secondary on the other side of the ball as they will most definitely be playing a heavy run defense against the only threat the Jaguars have in MJD.
The Jags would really have to outperform the Bears in every asset of the game to win that one, not just a bad game from Cutler

The worst part of it all is I meant to say Chicago choke job and put Cutler.

I was just thinking coming off a big game vs the Cowboys on a Monday night they may get caught standing around a bit. But yes the clear choice is Chicago in that game I just like trying to find that one upset.

Sylvanfan · 10-06-2012, 11:22 PM

I have a parlay of Baltimore, New York Giants, and Chicago money line 1 unit to win 1.5 units.

Another long shot of Atlanta/Wash over 51.5, Green Bay -7 over Indy, and SF/Buf under 45.5. One unit to win A shade under 6.

DropIt · 10-07-2012, 09:52 AM

Took a longshot parlay trying to sniff out the upsets.

KC +220
Titans +210
Miami + 195
GB-7 (-115)

Parlayed 1 unit into ... alot of units