Rube's NFL Gambling Odyssey

[DropIt]

well, Detroit screwed me today and Pittsburgh on another ticket.

Who would have thought that giving McFadden the ball 15+ times a game would result in a win, rather then Palmer throwing 50 times

[rubecube]

I got in early last night on DEN -6 for next weekend. I feel like that's going to be a blowout.

[rubecube]

I'm not gonna play the Monday nighter this week. All signs say I should be betting on the Packers, but I hate games in Seattle.

Final record for week 3: 4-2-1 +1 UNIT ($10)

Overall: 9-11-1 -1.5 UNITS (-$14.80)

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by HOOT

Excuses! 2011 home teams were 21-11 vs 2012 record of 23-9, not a huge difference for a small sample size. But I went further and looked into total penalties for the two weeks in each season and 2011 calls were 223-182 (44.9% vs home team) compared to this year 231-188 (44.9% vs home team). Bang on percentage wise home vs away.

The replacement refs haven't been perfect but they are only calling a .5 a penalty more a game after two weeks, without leaning home vs away. Vegas is always looking for someone to blame when they lose money.

The more I read this article, the more it pisses me off. The numbers are so heavily skewed by week 2 home teams going 11-3-2 against the spread. Week 1 they were 8-8, and week 3 they're currently sitting at 5-8-2 with one game left to play.

[return to the red]

Originally Posted by DropIt

Dolphins
Eagles
Patriots
Green Bay

thanks

Just kidding that was the way I was leaning minus the pats anyhow

[HOOT]

Originally Posted by rubecube

The more I read this article, the more it pisses me off. The numbers are so heavily skewed by week 2 home teams going 11-3-2 against the spread. Week 1 they were 8-8, and week 3 they're currently sitting at 5-8-2 with one game left to play.

They are just trying to sway bets and look for an excuse to add points on to the home team IMO. Cruising around different sites a lot of people bought into the article and were betting home teams hard this week. So I guess it worked for Vegas, again!

Week 3: 5-3-0 (+2U) / Overall: 8-6-0 (+1.66U)

Still debating with myself on the MNF game. If I do go it will probably be just before game time.

For next week I got in early for SF -3.5 @ NYJ, Revis is now out for the season, and I have a feeling the line will move by Sunday. I also like KC, but want more points than +1.5 if I pick the spread, this could be a ML game for me. SD is 3-9 (SU) the last 2 season East of Denver beating Houston & Indy (2010) and Jacksonville (2011).

Also gonna keep my eye on the CIN@JAC, CAR@ATL, OAK@DEN & NYG@PHI. I also like Arizona to win but couldn't give them a touchdown against anyone.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by HOOT

They are just trying to sway bets and look for an excuse to add points on to the home team IMO. Cruising around different sites a lot of people bought into the article and were betting home teams hard this week. So I guess it worked for Vegas, again!

Week 3: 5-3-0 (+2U) / Overall: 8-6-0 (+1.66U)

Still debating with myself on the MNF game. If I do go it will probably be just before game time.

For next week I got in early for SF -3.5 @ NYJ, Revis is now out for the season, and I have a feeling the line will move by Sunday. I also like KC, but want more points than +1.5 if I pick the spread, this could be a ML game for me. SD is 3-9 (SU) the last 2 season East of Denver beating Houston & Indy (2010) and Jacksonville (2011).

Also gonna keep my eye on the CIN@JAC, CAR@ATL, OAK@DEN & NYG@PHI. I also like Arizona to win but couldn't give them a touchdown against anyone.

NYG/PHI is an overreaction to the loss yesterday. People are going to be all over the Giants and the line won't budge. I don't usually bet on my team, but I'm taking the Eagles. I like the Niners as well but the Jets have been sneaky good at home the last few years. I really like New England -3.5.

[rubecube]

I also really like DAL -3.5 next Monday night but, with the way the public is betting the Bears, I'm thinking it can be had for -3 or less later in the week. I think I like ATL -9 but will have to think about it some more.

[HOOT]

Well glad I stayed away from that game I would have been one upset person. But I think GB next week will be a good bet.

San Francisco has moved to between -4/-4.5 tonight on most sites.

[return to the red]

1 winner on pools matching 14 of 15 for $195,600 and change, wowzers!

[HOOT]

Originally Posted by return to the red

1 winner on pools matching 14 of 15 for $195,600 and change, wowzers!

Are pools in Alberta similar to Toto in BC?

If so I wish they would publish how much the person paid for a ticket. Was it a $2 or $972 ticket that won? It would just be interesting to see.

[return to the red]

Originally Posted by HOOT

Are pools in Alberta similar to Toto in BC?

If so I wish they would publish how much the person paid for a ticket. Was it a $2 or $972 ticket that won? It would just be interesting to see.

Max it would be would be an $80 dollar ticket. You start off with base 5$ ticket and can block up to 4 games (chosing both teams to win), each block doubles the value of the ticket so you go from 5 - 10 - 20 - 40 - $ being the max. There are no ties it's strictly pick the outright winner and you have to play all the games (minus Thursday nighter)

So that being said, let's look at this weeks matchups shall we...

[HOOT]

Originally Posted by return to the red

Max it would be would be an $80 dollar ticket. You start off with base 5$ ticket and can block up to 4 games (chosing both teams to win), each block doubles the value of the ticket so you go from 5 - 10 - 20 - 40 - $ being the max. There are no ties it's strictly pick the outright winner and you have to play all the games (minus Thursday nighter)

So that being said, let's look at this weeks matchups shall we...

Oh that sounds way better than BCLC Toto game. With Toto you have to pick ties, which is where it gets very difficult, and the prices are ridiculous. It goes all the way up to $972 for a ticket, where $80 is reasonable at least.

Can you play the Pools online? I wonder if I can set up an account with a friends address in Calgary.

[return to the red]

Originally Posted by HOOT

Oh that sounds way better than BCLC Toto game. With Toto you have to pick ties, which is where it gets very difficult, and the prices are ridiculous. It goes all the way up to $972 for a ticket, where $80 is reasonable at least.

Can you play the Pools online? I wonder if I can set up an account with a friends address in Calgary.

I don't think you can but ya it's not bad, things get really interesting when you only spend $5 and you go into the Monday night game with no or only one loss because you don't know if you have won anthing until the Tuesday morning.

Best i've done was 13/15 losing the monday nighter, winning ticket(s) was 14/15 making a cool $5000 or something like that.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by HOOT

Oh that sounds way better than BCLC Toto game. With Toto you have to pick ties, which is where it gets very difficult, and the prices are ridiculous. It goes all the way up to $972 for a ticket, where $80 is reasonable at least.

Can you play the Pools online? I wonder if I can set up an account with a friends address in Calgary.

I played Toto for the first time this past weekend. Think I ended up with 7 or 8 out of 13. The tie thing is brutal.

[rubecube]

Got down on TB -3 today. Not sure why this line is so low (RGIII hype?), and the price was wonderful (+106).

[HOOT]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I played Toto for the first time this past weekend. Think I ended up with 7 or 8 out of 13. The tie thing is brutal.

It's damn near impossible with the ties unless you are spending in the $200+ range on a ticket to get more doubles/triples. It's almost worth picking against the trends so if they do hit you know you are going to get paid. I once hit 12/13 but because all the games were 'obvious' I only won just under $500. But the payouts can get into the $100-150k range if you hit 13/13 and are the only one.

Don't get me wrong it is fun to play, I actually might start again this year just for the challenge, but for the most part you are just throwing your money away unless you bet big. Which is why the Pools in Alberta sound so interesting, at least for the most part it's level playing feild.

[CofR]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Got down on TB -3 today. Not sure why this line is so low (RGIII hype?), and the price was wonderful (+106).

I don't like betting on my own teams, but I can't help it at this price.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by CofR

I don't like betting on my own teams, but I can't help it at this price.

Yeah, I'm not sure what's going on here. I think they're trying to suck the public into betting on the Skins. Skins are currently getting about 66% of the bets, so it's obviously working.

[return to the red]

Pools picks

Car vs Atl
NE vs Buf
Min vs Det (blocked)
SD vs KC (blocked)
Sea vs Stl
SF vs NYJ
Ten vs Hou
Mia vs Arz
Cin vs JKV
Oak vs Den
NWO vs GB
Wsh vs TB
NYG vs PHI (iffy on this one)
Chi vs Dal