Rube's NFL Gambling Odyssey - Page 2 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

rubecube · 09-12-2012, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rubecube

HOU -9 - This looks like a good bet, because Houston should be able to put at least 10 between them and the Jags, but I don't trust this line. You can buy this line down to 7.5 and still get it for +102. Everyone and their dog is on Houston and the books don't like losing money. This one reeks.

Crazy RLM on this one. Public was hitting HOU -9 hard and the books dropped it to -7.5.

rubecube · 09-12-2012, 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rubecube

NO -1 - Last year, this would've been a -6.5 game at least. I'm not letting one stinker against the Redskins convince me into taking a terrible defense like Carolina's. This will likely be my morning play.

Bought Saints ML today because the spread vs. ML value was good (spread was -129, ML -137).

EDIT: Now I'm looking at it and there's been heavy RLM on this one too. Opened at -5, public was hitting it at over 80% and it dropped to -1. Might end up being a bad play but I still like it.

BlackRedGold25 · 09-12-2012, 01:18 PM

So what site do you bet at?

Rjcsjc62 · 09-12-2012, 01:26 PM

TB +9 - Giants are not a good team. No one believes me. They've been particularly awful at home the last few seasons.

OAK -1 - Tannehill is awful. Even worse than Palmer.

So far I really like these 2 as well. I usually dont make any bets until Sat/Sun but at a glance these games stood out.

Otsy · 09-12-2012, 02:09 PM

Oakland on the road playing on the east coast. I don't like that one at all. Palmer may be slightly better then tannehill but he can't throw the ball down the field. At all. McFadden gets no room because the defense doesn't have to respect the deep ball at all. Palmer will just be dumping the ball off again. Plus regardless of how they say they're not going to take dumb penalties, that's all the raiders are good for. I think Miami gets a surprise win here.

rubecube · 09-12-2012, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackRedGold25

So what site do you bet at?

https://www.pinnaclesports.com/

rubecube · 09-12-2012, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Otsy

Oakland on the road playing on the east coast. I don't like that one at all. Palmer may be slightly better then tannehill but he can't throw the ball down the field. At all. McFadden gets no room because the defense doesn't have to respect the deep ball at all. Palmer will just be dumping the ball off again. Plus regardless of how they say they're not going to take dumb penalties, that's all the raiders are good for. I think Miami gets a surprise win here.

They did also get smoked at Miami last year, but that was without McFadden.

troutman · 09-12-2012, 03:00 PM

At this time it is my pleasure to welcome to the broadcast all the shut-ins, the pensioners, the blind, and all of those people who can’t get out to watch hockey games. Internet gambling is illegal in Canada.

Rjcsjc62 · 09-12-2012, 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by troutman

At this time it is my pleasure to welcome to the broadcast all the shut-ins, the pensioners, the blind, and all of those people who can’t get out to watch hockey games. Internet gambling is illegal in Canada.

Hmmm, like, how illegal, hypothetically.

GirlySports · 09-13-2012, 07:11 AM

Jets are getting 6 against the Steelers. I don't see the Steelers winning by more than 3.

rubecube · 09-13-2012, 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Jets are getting 6 against the Steelers. I don't see the Steelers winning by more than 3.

I do. It's the Jets, on the road. Mark Sanchez against a good defense.

Plus, it's the Jets.

rubecube · 09-13-2012, 09:05 AM

1 UNIT on GB -5.5 for tonight. I seriously considered taking the Bears, but I think the Packers are gonna be pissed, and I like Aaron Rodgers, at home, in primetime. Packers by a TD.

rubecube · 09-13-2012, 09:09 AM

Actually, Girly, you might be right. The Jets have played in Pittsburgh three years in a row now. The last time they only lost by 5, and they won the previous time. I still don't trust them. I'm pretty sure my afternoon pick will be Skins -3, but we'll see.

GirlySports · 09-13-2012, 09:26 AM

It's really cool that you're looking at things historically.

The "trick" in Week 2 is not to overreact to Week 1 performances on teams you're high on (or the converse of course).

Using that theory, I like Buffalo -3 at home vs. Kansas City. Also liking Seattle +3 vs. Dallas at home. I'm definitely going to go with the latter because I think that's an overreaction line in BOTH directions.

Otsy · 09-13-2012, 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GirlySports

It's really cool that you're looking at things historically.

The "trick" in Week 2 is not to overreact to Week 1 performances on teams you're high on (or the converse of course).

Using that theory, I like Buffalo -3 at home vs. Kansas City. Also liking Seattle +3 vs. Dallas at home. I'm definitely going to go with the latter because I think that's an overreaction line in BOTH directions.

I do like the Seattle pick. That's a damn tough place to play even with 10 days off for the Cowboys. Underated defense too in seattle.

KC/Buf I really don't know. KC getting Hali and Flowers back on defense. Plus they can gameplan against Spiller where Jets probably keyed most of practice against Jackson. Charles/Hillis could have a monster game like Shonn Greene did. I think itll come down to the Bills defense rebounding. Spent a lot of money and now time to earn it. That being said I'm still riding KC in my spread pools.

rubecube · 09-13-2012, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GirlySports

It's really cool that you're looking at things historically.

The "trick" in Week 2 is not to overreact to Week 1 performances on teams you're high on (or the converse of course).

Using that theory, I like Buffalo -3 at home vs. Kansas City. Also liking Seattle +3 vs. Dallas at home. I'm definitely going to go with the latter because I think that's an overreaction line in BOTH directions.

The Buffalo line definitely is. I don't like the Seattle line. My rule of thumb is that home teams are generally given at least three points on either side of the spread, and I didn't like what I saw from Seattle's offense last week. I still think the under is the best bet there.

The other overreaction line to me is NO -1 but the books seem to really be trying to entice bets on that, and it's not overly surprising since the Panthers gave New Orleans a good game in Charlotte last year.

I do however generally have a rule where I don't take the Saints on the road, which I'm breaking this week

rubecube · 09-13-2012, 09:51 AM

The other line I've decided I really like this week is the Sunday Night game. I think it's another overreaction to Detroit's lousy performance and San Fran's big game, and the books know it. 90% of bets are coming in on SF and the line hasn't budged. I think you have a very good shot of at least pushing on DET +7.

Sylvanfan · 09-13-2012, 12:56 PM

Personally, I'm taking the over in tonights Green Bay and Chicago game. The way I see it....Chicago has a superior offence to San Francisco, and San Francisco has a superior defence to Chicago. That should translate to a few more points. Plus with a few banged up bodies from a short week, and less prep time, I think this gives the advantage to the offences.

rubecube · 09-13-2012, 02:19 PM

^^Just an FYI, the total has gone under 8/10 times they've last played.

HOOT · 09-13-2012, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rubecube

https://www.pinnaclesports.com/

Have you played at SportsInteraction.com, if so how do you compare the two?

Only bet I've made so far is $50 on the Broncos to win the Superbowl outright at 19/1 and I missed last weeks games camping but I'll be ramping that up going forward.

Great idea on the thread, looking forward to the results.