Rube's NFL Gambling Odyssey - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

rubecube · 09-07-2012, 01:26 PM

This is my little act of narcissism. I've actually considered starting my own gambling blog, but I'm not sure I have the time or dedication for it, so this will have to suffice for now. Here's how this will work:

Every week I'm going to make bets on 5 NFL games minimum; Thursday night game, one Sunday AM game, one Sunday PM game, Sunday night game, and Monday night game. I may also bet on other Sunday games if I think they're "good plays." At the end of the year, we'll see how I did against the books and you all can mock me relentlessly. I will keep a weekly record and overall record as well.

Feel free to ridicule my picks, personality, or dashing good looks.

The values of my bets will be based on their "to win" numbers. Obviously, there's juice on some of these, so I'll also post my wins vs. losses in $ value as well. Picks are in bold.

1 UNIT = $10

Week 1:

2-6 -3 UNITS (-$30)

Spoiler!

Week 2:

3-3 -.5 UNIT (-$5)

Spoiler!

Week 3:

4-2-1 (+1 UNIT)

Spoiler!

Week 4:

6-3 +3 UNITS

Spoiler!

WEEK 5 -

5-4 +1 UNIT

Spoiler!

Week 6 -

5-5

Spoiler!

Week 7-

5-4 +1 UNIT

Spoiler!

Week 8 -

5-6 -1 UNIT

Spoiler!

Week 9 -

5-5 -.5 UNIT

Spoiler!

Week 10 -

5-5

Spoiler!

Week 11 -

4-3

Spoiler!

Week 12 -

4-2-1 +3 UNITS

Spoiler!

Week 13:

5-5

Spoiler!

Week 14 picks:

2-4

Spoiler!

Overall: 60-57-2 +5 UNITS

Rjcsjc62 · 09-07-2012, 02:19 PM

Can I play too?

I mean, is this just supposed to be a thread about your picks or can I post mine too. It's not for the sake of competing with you or anything, I just believe that it's a good idea to track your bets.

And I would never ridicule anybody who makes a bunch of wrong picks, I respect having the nads to post them. What I cant stand is people who post their picks after they win. How does that help anybody?

rubecube · 09-07-2012, 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rjcsjc62

Can I play too?

I mean, is this just supposed to be a thread about your picks or can I post mine too. It's not for the sake of competing with you or anything, I just believe that it's a good idea to track your bets.

And I would never ridicule anybody who makes a bunch of wrong picks, I respect having the nads to post them. What I cant stand is people who post their picks after they win. How does that help anybody?

I'm not that much of a ###### that I would tell someone they couldn't post picks in this thread. One thing I will ask is that we keep it to NFL picks. There is another generic gambling thread for other picks.

DropIt · 09-07-2012, 09:04 PM

Complete Homer here, but I have a hard time seeing Indy covering Chicago at home, even despite the ugly spread. It just seems way too much for Luck to go shot-for-shot with Cutler in his first real game, on the road against a top defense, but that is strictly my opinion I guess.

My picks this week are:
CHI - 10 vs IND
BUF + 3 at NYJ
NO - 7.5 vs WAS
SEA - 3 at ARZ
PIT + 2 at DEN
OAK - 1 vs SD

Sylvanfan · 09-07-2012, 09:45 PM

I teased 6 points on the following.

New England pickem at Tennessee
Philly -3.5 at Cleveland
Miami at Houston under 48.5
Detroit -2 vs. St.Louis
New Orleans -1.5 vs. Washington

I can't see the Browns putting up more than 9 points against Philly.
Jake Locker will make a mistake or two that I think Brady takes advantage of. Miami won't score 10 points meaning Houston would need 40. Detroit at home should handle the Rams. New Orleans at home should also light up the score board.

$25 bet to win $112.55

rubecube · 09-08-2012, 02:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DropIt

Complete Homer here, but I have a hard time seeing Indy covering Chicago at home, even despite the ugly spread. It just seems way too much for Luck to go shot-for-shot with Cutler in his first real game, on the road against a top defense, but that is strictly my opinion I guess.

My picks this week are:
CHI - 10 vs IND
BUF + 3 at NYJ
NO - 7.5 vs WAS
SEA - 3 at ARZ
PIT + 2 at DEN
OAK - 1 vs SD

My line of thinking is that Luck will be like Cam Newton was last year - king of the backdoor covers.

Rjcsjc62 · 09-08-2012, 09:29 PM

I want to sleep on it, but my leans right now are:
NO/Wsh U 50.5
NE - 4.5
AZ +2.5
KC ML

Rjcsjc62 · 09-09-2012, 08:26 AM

5 picks all 1 unit each:

Chicago -9.5
NYJ -3
Wsh/NO U 50.5
NE -4.5
AZ +2.5

2012 YTD 0-0 ( +0.00 units)

Cortez · 09-09-2012, 09:47 AM

Explanation for the gambling challenged - what does 1 unit mean? and what does ML stand for? (SEA @ ARI ML 1 UNIT)

Rjcsjc62 · 09-09-2012, 10:14 AM

Adding, because i cant resist a good teaser:

Cle +16
No -2.5

1 unit

Rjcsjc62 · 09-09-2012, 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cortez

Explanation for the gambling challenged - what does 1 unit mean? and what does ML stand for? (SEA @ ARI ML 1 UNIT)

ML stands for money line and it means that the bet is based on who wins the game, and not who covers the spread.

When gamblers compare bets they use a unit to represent a standard sized bet.

For example, if gambler A posts his picks and says that he is betting $10 on it, and gambler B posts a pick and says he is betting $200 on it, it tends to sensationalize the bet made by gambler B. But if gambler A only typically bets $10 per game and gambler B bets$200, they should both just say they are betting 1 unit.

If Gambler A finishes the year 20-10 and +$100, and gambler B finishes 16-15 and +$200, then at a glance it appears that gambler B had a better season. But this obviously isnt true. Gambler A is a better handicapper because of his record.

When people make picks on the internet on a forum like this. It usually doesn`t take long before some jerk-offs start talking about how they bet $20,000.00 per game and how great they are. If everybody just defines their bet based on 1 unit being average, you can eliminate all the extra BS that many gambling forums are reduced to.

Somebody sharing their picks shouldn`t even talk about the value of their own units. it`s cheesy.

DropIt · 09-09-2012, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cortez

Explanation for the gambling challenged - what does 1 unit mean? and what does ML stand for? (SEA @ ARI ML 1 UNIT)

Quote:

Originally Posted by rubecube

The values of my bets will be based on their "to win" numbers. Obviously, there's juice on some of these, so I'll also post my wins vs. losses in $ value as well. Picks are in bold.

1 UNIT = $10

Also, Im assuming that ML means 'Moneyline' where you pick the game outright.

DropIt · 09-09-2012, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rjcsjc62

ML stands for money line and it means that the bet is based on who wins the game, and not who covers the spread.

When gamblers compare bets they use a unit to represent a standard sized bet.

For example, if gambler A posts his picks and says that he is betting $10 on it, and gambler B posts a pick and says he is betting $200 on it, it tends to sensationalize the bet made by gambler B. But if gambler A only typically bets $10 per game and gambler B bets$200, they should both just say they are betting 1 unit.

If Gambler A finishes the year 20-10 and +$100, and gambler B finishes 16-15 and +$200, then at a glance it appears that gambler B had a better season. But this obviously isnt true. Gambler A is a better handicapper because of his record.

When people make picks on the internet on a forum like this. It usually doesn`t take long before some jerk-offs start talking about how they bet $20,000.00 per game and how great they are. If everybody just defines their bet based on 1 unit being average, you can eliminate all the extra BS that many gambling forums are reduced to.

Somebody sharing their picks shouldn`t even talk about the value of their own units. it`s cheesy.

I just like to brag about the money I win, not what I spent to win it

Rjcsjc62 · 09-09-2012, 10:44 AM

I should also add, that by defining a bet in units can also express how much somebody likes a game. To use Rube as an example, maybe he really, really likes a line and says he is taking the Patriots for $25. People wouldn't know if that is just an everyday bet for him. By saying he is betting 2.5 units, it should grab your attention that this is an unusually large bet for him.

If you go to a handicapping site right now like covers.com, or therx.com, i promise you that you will find all kinds of idiots claiming that they are making a 100 unit bet on a game, or a 2000 unit parley. It makes no sense, it is just a bunch of dickheads who probably have a $5 bet with the guy in the office next to him.

Cortez · 09-09-2012, 12:22 PM

Thanks for the great explanation. I bet all my units on the Pats

rubecube · 09-10-2012, 10:51 AM

What a gruesome Sunday for me. I've had some pretty bad weeks in my life, but 1-6 might be the worst. Stark contrast from last year when I went 11-2 on opening weekend. Two more games to go. I don't like my Raiders pick at all.

DropIt · 09-10-2012, 11:20 AM

The Jets inevitably did it in for me, as I took the Bills in almost all my tickets. Did not see that game coming.

rubecube · 09-10-2012, 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DropIt

The Jets inevitably did it in for me, as I took the Bills in almost all my tickets. Did not see that game coming.

I think the Bills will be average this year, but the Jets have owned them for some time now. 2.5 favourites at home was just too easy to pass up. I think that was the game I felt strongest about this week. Mind you, I was pretty heavy on Seattle, too.

rubecube · 09-11-2012, 01:53 PM

I like way too many road teams this week. This usually doesn't end well.

rubecube · 09-11-2012, 02:16 PM

Final record for week 1 was 2-5 for -3 UNITS (-$30). I'm looking to rebound this week with the books being overly hard on some teams (Saints) and not hard enough on others (Giants). I won't make my bets until Friday, unless the lines start shifting too much, but there are some good value plays such as:

TB +9 - Giants are not a good team. No one believes me. They've been particularly awful at home the last few seasons.

BAL +1 - The Eagles shouldn't be favoured in this game. Andy Reid is 4-9 in home openers since he became head coach, and hasn't won a home opener since 2008. The Eagles DBs match up well with the Ravens WRs, and the defensive line will probably pummel Flacco, but I'm not expecting great things from Mike Vick against the Ravens blitz. The only thing the Eagles have going for them in this one is the fact that the Ravens are not traditionally strong on the road, and this might be a trap game for them.

BUF -3.5 - I'm thinking this drops down to 3 by Friday. The Bills tend to play well at home and against teams not named the Jets.

NO -1 - Last year, this would've been a -6.5 game at least. I'm not letting one stinker against the Redskins convince me into taking a terrible defense like Carolina's. This will likely be my morning play.

OAK -1 - Tannehill is awful. Even worse than Palmer.

DAL/SEA U41.5 - I don't trust Russel Wilson and the Seahawks craptastic Oline to do enough to keep them within 3 of the Cowboys, but I do trust their defense and insane crowd noise to keep Tony Romo from hanging more than 24 on them.

WSH -3 - The Lions made the Rams look a lot better than they are.

SF -6.5 - See above

Admiral Ackbar's IT'S A TRAP! Game of the week:

HOU -9 - This looks like a good bet, because Houston should be able to put at least 10 between them and the Jags, but I don't trust this line. You can buy this line down to 7.5 and still get it for +102. Everyone and their dog is on Houston and the books don't like losing money. This one reeks.