Lee Stempniak

[the2bears]

There is very little consensus here on most if not all players' value.

[kirant]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

When Glencross floats we jump all over him...... When Stempniak floats nobody notices or comments.... the Glencross expections are so very much higher.

If Baertschi or Cervenka has the same season that Stempniak had in 2011-12 there will be a lot of disappointed Flames fans.

I think we just forget about Stempniak. I honestly remember a few times after hearing him score thinking "...Oh, that's right! We have him!". Glencross is a recognizable player on the Flames, while Stempniak doesn't exactly have a unique feel to him and often just feels like your average NHLer and is forgotten if he isn't doing much.

I'd honestly be happy though if Baertschi got 38 points over 82 games (prorated). Actually, that's kind of my expectation (30-40 points on the 3rd line). I'd be pleasantly surprised with Cervenka if he did the same (though that's just me not buying into him being as good as he's sold and him likely going to struggle with the smaller ice and more physical game)

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

You are making it sound like skill and competency result in streakinees, as in a person is competent for 10 games and then become incompetent for a stretch. No. They have a prior skillset, but confidence fluctuates.

Lot's of things contribute to streakiness I just don't think that any of them are related to "confidence". Does confidence fluctuate? Yes it does... but I don't think it causes one to score more or score less, I think it's an effect of result not a cause of result (I think you feel confident because you score goals not that you score goals because you are confident). You can't just say "confidence flucuates and then automatically assign it value as the determinator of goal scoring. Lot's of things flucuate... Random variance (A.K.A. Luck), health, fatigue, schedule variation, qualcomp, qualteam, icetime, special team play... all of these things flucuate (some more then others) on a game-by-game basis.

Really the "streaky" player is the norm... it's the consistent player that's the exception on a game by game basis.

Originally Posted by ricardodw

There are a lot of lineups showing Glencross getting dropped to the 3rd line??

Glencross >>>>> Stempniak

I think it's less that Glencross is "dropping" to the third line and more that Baertschi is starting on the second line. Truthfully I imagine the Flames having essually two "second" lines. They'll each get about the same amount of icetime but one will get more defensive responsibility (tougher starts and draws, PK special team play) while the other will get more offensive responsibility (easier draws and O-zone starts, PP special team play).

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Lot's of things contribute to streakiness I just don't think that any of them are related to "confidence". Does confidence fluctuate? Yes it does... but I don't think it causes one to score more or score less, I think it's an effect of result not a cause of result (I think you feel confident because you score goals not that you score goals because you are confident). You can't just say "confidence flucuates and then automatically assign it value as the determinator of goal scoring. Lot's of things flucuate... Random variance (A.K.A. Luck), health, fatigue, schedule variation, qualcomp, qualteam, icetime, special team play... all of these things flucuate (some more then others) on a game-by-game basis.

Really the "streaky" player is the norm... it's the consistent player that's the exception on a game by game basis.

Which was exactly my point as well.

[doctajones428]

Backlund to Baertschi to Stempniak... He scooores! Some kinda goal!

Going to be hearing that a bunch. If only we still had Loubardias making the calls...

[OzSome]

I don't mind seeing Glencross or Stempniak on the 3rd line so we can have balance offense. I am definitely not giving up on Backlund. He's still young and he hasn't really played a full season yet due to injuries and being healthy scratch. Backlund just need the confidence and i am sure he will develop as a good player. Problem is so many people here in CP expected him to be the #1 centre a few season ago but when he didn't produce right away, pretty much everyone just wanted to dump him. I am pretty sure Hartley will try him on top 6, 2nd line centre or left wing. As for Comeau, he is just taking Aliu's spot here. I would have like to see the Aliu-Jones-?? on the 4th line.

[Alberta_Beef]

I think Stempniak gets a bit of a bad rep since he never had a chance for one of his hot streaks last season. It looked like he was just heating up when he was injured.

What I like about it is by all accounts the guys in the room like him, he is not a liability when not on his game and when he gets hot he can be a game changer.

People don't like his inconsistencies, but I think that every 2nd/3rd liner will have inconsistencies, that is why they are 2nd/3rd liners and not on the 1st line.

If Stempy can provide 15-20 goals in a 3rd line capacity I will be pleased.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Alberta_Beef

I think Stempniak gets a bit of a bad rep since he never had a chance for one of his hot streaks last season. It looked like he was just heating up when he was injured.

What I like about it is by all accounts the guys in the room like him, he is not a liability when not on his game and when he gets hot he can be a game changer.

People don't like his inconsistencies, but I think that every 2nd/3rd liner will have inconsistencies, that is why they are 2nd/3rd liners and not on the 1st line.

If Stempy can provide 15-20 goals in a 3rd line capacity I will be pleased.

How is he not a liability when he is not on his game? Is he a shut down guy? Inspire the team with his hitting? Drop his gloves when someone runs Kipper? Of course he is a liability when he is off.... he is a non-agressive skilled player..... if he is not scoring he is wasting ice time.


If he scores 15 goals from the 3rd line he will be tremendous.. Jarret Stoll best 3rd line player on the SC champs 6 goals 21 pts.

The whole Flames 3rd line (7-9 in toi) last year had 22 goals in all ... Comeau, Stajan, Kostopolus.

2 years ago Jackman was moved to 3rd line and had the best production in the NHL for guys under 12 minutes --- 10 goals

There is a reason that there is a focus on the top 6..... they score 80% of the goals. The bottom six check and uses up ice time while the top 2 lines rest.

[Psytic]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

How is he not a liability when he is not on his game? Is he a shut down guy? Inspire the team with his hitting? Drop his gloves when someone runs Kipper? Of course he is a liability when he is off.... he is a non-agressive skilled player..... if he is not scoring he is wasting ice time.


If he scores 15 goals from the 3rd line he will be tremendous.. Jarret Stoll best 3rd line player on the SC champs 6 goals 21 pts.

The whole Flames 3rd line (7-9 in toi) last year had 22 goals in all ... Comeau, Stajan, Kostopolus.

2 years ago Jackman was moved to 3rd line and had the best production in the NHL for guys under 12 minutes --- 10 goals

There is a reason that there is a focus on the top 6..... they score 80% of the goals. The bottom six check and uses up ice time while the top 2 lines rest.

I just don't see Bart, Backlund and Stemps as being a traditional third line. They look more like a 2b line to me. I think this team is going to be playing river hockey just looking at the way the roster is built.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Psytic

I just don't see Bart, Backlund and Stemps as being a traditional third line. They look more like a 2b line to me. I think this team is going to be playing river hockey just looking at the way the roster is built.

Yeah, I agree but if they put together a third line of Glencross, Comeau and whoever else they acquire or wins the battle for third line centre (Backlund or Stajan would be my guess), they would be a pretty good checking line. It might be a step back for Glencross and his stats but he's probably our best checker. Comeau can also fill this role with his speed and physical presence.

I just don't see a place for Stempniak unless as you say we play river hockey. Maybe he was signed because we didn't know we would be able to sign Hudler and now Feaster is maybe looking to move him.

It will be an interesting camp to see how our new coach fits these guys in.

[FlyingDonutz]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Yeah, I agree but if they put together a third line of Glencross, Comeau and whoever else they acquire or wins the battle for third line centre (Backlund or Stajan would be my guess), they would be a pretty good checking line. It might be a step back for Glencross and his stats but he's probably our best checker. Comeau can also fill this role with his speed and physical presence.

I just don't see a place for Stempniak unless as you say we play river hockey. Maybe he was signed because we didn't know we would be able to sign Hudler and now Feaster is maybe looking to move him.

It will be an interesting camp to see how our new coach fits these guys in.

Scoreface might be able to rack up a solid 70 point season if he pulls together has he did in his good part of last season.. he was one of our best players until that... *foul language* Game Misconduct

[BACKCHECK!!!]

This thread is missing "freakin" in the title.

[cowtown75]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

If Stempniak gets 20 goals playing on the third line--- 12:00 / game the Flames will lead the league in goal scoring. .... by a lot.

If somehow he ends up with top-6 ice time ................ the team will have taken a step back despite of adding Cammelleri, Hudler, Cervenka and Baertschi to replace Bourque, Jokinen and Stempniak in the top 6.

There are a lot of lineups showing Glencross getting dropped to the 3rd line??

Glencross >>>>> Stempniak

When Glencross floats we jump all over him...... When Stempniak floats nobody notices or comments.... the Glencross expections are so very much higher.

If Baertschi or Cervenka has the same season that Stempniak had in 2011-12 there will be a lot of disappointed Flames fans.

The crazy part of this team to me is how many guys are capable of and have scored 20+ goals. Iginla, Cammy, Tanguay, Stempniak, Glencross, Comeau, Hudler- with the possiblility of two other guys in Sven and Cervenka being able to do that as well. With Hartley's new system, this could be a seriously high scoring season.

[cowtown75]

Originally Posted by OzSome

I don't mind seeing Glencross or Stempniak on the 3rd line so we can have balance offense. I am definitely not giving up on Backlund. He's still young and he hasn't really played a full season yet due to injuries and being healthy scratch. Backlund just need the confidence and i am sure he will develop as a good player. Problem is so many people here in CP expected him to be the #1 centre a few season ago but when he didn't produce right away, pretty much everyone just wanted to dump him. I am pretty sure Hartley will try him on top 6, 2nd line centre or left wing. As for Comeau, he is just taking Aliu's spot here. I would have like to see the Aliu-Jones-?? on the 4th line.

Aliu-Jones- Jackman.....punishing. I agree, I wish there was an open spot for Akim here. Feaster wants grit, well, we are sitting on it.

[Psytic]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Yeah, I agree but if they put together a third line of Glencross, Comeau and whoever else they acquire or wins the battle for third line centre (Backlund or Stajan would be my guess), they would be a pretty good checking line. It might be a step back for Glencross and his stats but he's probably our best checker. Comeau can also fill this role with his speed and physical presence.

I just don't see a place for Stempniak unless as you say we play river hockey. Maybe he was signed because we didn't know we would be able to sign Hudler and now Feaster is maybe looking to move him.

It will be an interesting camp to see how our new coach fits these guys in.

I prefer them to have it as 2b, it is better for Bart and Backlund's development I think. No one cares about Comeau and GlenX is a prideful guy I think he would rather put pucks in the net. He deserves the 2nd line now imo.

[bubbsy]

i don't understand the re-signing of stempniak at all.

they have said baertchi has a spot on the roster, and we all feel he should.

in the top 9 where is there space for stempniak??
LW
Tanguay
Cammalleri
Baertchi

RW
Iginla
Hudler
glencross (who can play either wing)

my pencilled in (guestimate) at the lineup is something along the lines of:
tanguay - backlund/cervanka - iginla
cammalleri - backlund/cervanka - hudler
baertchi - stajan - glencross
comeau - jones - jackman

comeau >> stempniak in a 4th line role.

so where does stempniak fit?

I would have preferred letting stempniak walk, and hoping bouma, nemisz, byron could step up during camp to fill the 13th forward role.

[Psytic]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

i don't understand the re-signing of stempniak at all.

they have said baertchi has a spot on the roster, and we all feel he should.

in the top 9 where is there space for stempniak??
LW
Tanguay
Cammalleri
Baertchi

RW
Iginla
Hudler
glencross (who can play either wing)

my pencilled in (guestimate) at the lineup is something along the lines of:
tanguay - backlund/cervanka - iginla
cammalleri - backlund/cervanka - hudler
baertchi - stajan - glencross
comeau - jones - jackman

comeau >> stempniak in a 4th line role.

so where does stempniak fit?

I would have preferred letting stempniak walk, and hoping bouma, nemisz, byron could step up during camp to fill the 13th forward role.

They must have not known if they were going to get Hudler to sign I suspect.

[Husky]

Originally Posted by Psytic

They must have not known if they were going to get Hudler to sign I suspect.

More likely they plan at playing cammalleri at center regsrdless.

[FAN]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

A 20 goal scorer will score, on average, every 4th game. Factor in multi-goal games, and you're talking about every 5th game, give or take. Even ignoring confidence and "streakiness", you're still looking - by simple statistical distribution - at periods of 10 and more games that are going to be goal-less.

The NHL regular season is essentially from October to May with a few games in April. A 20 goal scorer who isn't streaky will typically score at least 2 goals every month from October to May with some months scoring more than 2.

Stempniak is considered a streaky goal scorer because he goes on these long goal droughts. Stempniak is the type of player who would score 6+ one month and then none the next.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by FAN

The NHL regular season is essentially from October to May with a few games in April. A 20 goal scorer who isn't streaky will typically score at least 2 goals every month from October to May with some months scoring more than 2.

Stempniak is considered a streaky goal scorer because he goes on these long goal droughts. Stempniak is the type of player who would score 6+ one month and then none the next.

Yes in March 2012 when the flames were in a heated battle for the playoffs and 2-3 extra goals would have gotten them in ..... ahead of LA

1 goal 1 assist in 8 games playing 16 Minutes / game.

In the march 2011 - 14 games with Phx 3 goals 1 assist. then in the playoffs 0 points in 4 games.

In march 2010 he was smoking hot ... 13 goals in 15 games!!!

Then he lead Phx into the playoffs 2 assists in 7 games -4.


last year he had 3 goals all year against teams that made the playoffs.

Glencross for comparison had 15 of his 26 goals against playoff teams.

Matt Stajan, playing on the 4th line.... only 8 goals all season got 4 against playoff teams.

Bourque , who all of CP can basically agree was a floater, got 8 out his 18 goals against playoff teams.