General Ongoing Coyotes saga thread

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Daradon

And yes literally bringing down the league was a extreme statement. But they are the biggest part of the revenue problem. Which is why we are going to a lockout AGAIN. Something no hockey fan wants and is completely justified in getting upset over.

No, they aren't. The league is potentially going to a lockout because some teams are struggling to reach the current salary floor. Moving the Coyotes only moves the floor higher, which only makes things worse for those teams. It is naive to think that the Coyotes are the root of the problem, or even a significant part of it. They are a part, no doubt, but no more so than a half dozen other teams.

The Coyotes situation does not look good, but bad optics does not imply disastrous finances. Especially since Glendale was eating most of the losses. You are attempting to transfer your personal emotional argument into the business one, and thus are applying an extreme position that does not truly exist.

[Daradon]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

No, they aren't. The league is potentially going to a lockout because some teams are struggling to reach the current salary floor. Moving the Coyotes only moves the floor higher, which only makes things worse for those teams. It is naive to think that the Coyotes are the root of the problem, or even a significant part of it. They are a part, no doubt, but no more so than a half dozen other teams.

The Coyotes situation does not look good, but bad optics does not imply disastrous finances. Especially since Glendale was eating most of the losses. You are attempting to transfer your personal emotional argument into the business one, and thus are applying an extreme position that does not truly exist.

But if teams are having trouble reaching the salary floor, it's because something is wrong. Be it with the ownership group, the management of the team, or yes, even the location.

We have a cap now. With linkage. The excuses for not being able to reach the floor or be competitive are not there the way they were before 05. If the teams can't do it, why should the league or the other teams help them out?

[Fire]

Originally Posted by troutman

Economist sees Canadian dollar sinking to 86¢ in 2013


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle4370816/

He's just one Economist among maybe. Even in the article it mentions that other Economists believe the dollar will stay around parity for the next couple of years.

In other words they have no idea.

[troutman]

Ed Chavez ‏@edmchvz #Coyotes:
Ticket renewal rate more than 90 percent, the best in franchise history; more than 1,500 new sales http://aol.sportingnews.com/nhl/story/2012-06-18/nhl-team-ticket-sales-la-kings-penguins-season-tickets

Fred Poulin ‏@FredPoulin98
City of Glendale just confirmed it will not give another $25M to the #NHL to manage the #Coyotes, so Jamison needs to buy the team or poof!

Lisa Halverstadt ‏@LisaHalverstadt
.@danybrisson #Glendale resident Ken Jones, who is gathering signatures vs. #Coyotes deal, says his group has collected "several hundred."

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Daradon

But if teams are having trouble reaching the salary floor, it's because something is wrong. Be it with the ownership group, the management of the team, or yes, even the location.

We have a cap now. With linkage. The excuses for not being able to reach the floor or be competitive are not there the way they were before 05. If the teams can't do it, why should the league or the other teams help them out?

Something is wrong, yes. But you are looking the wrong direction. The issue, in truth, is with the top teams, not the bottom.

Using Forbes' 2010-11 estimates of revenue: http://www.forbes.com/nhl-valuations/#p_3_s_a5_

Consider that the median teams for revenue made $96 million, but the mean average was $103 million. Two thirds of the league's teams are below the mean.

Using a simple calculation of estimated revenue ($3090 million), the player's share (57%) would have created a salary midpoint of $58.7 million, and thus a cap of $66.7 million, and a floor of $50.7 million.

If you simply eliminate the bottom five revenue teams, the midpoint moves up to $62.2 million. More importantly, the floor rises to $54.2 million, or an increase of 6.9%. If you eliminate the top five teams, however, the midpoint falls to $52.2 million, and the floor to $44.2 million - or a decrease of 12.8%.

Most teams are in the $78-105 million range for revenue. Three teams came in below that, and nobody would argue they are problem markets: Atlanta (relocated), Phoenix (likely to relocate) and the Islanders (likely to relocate). These markets are a disaster, and nobody will dispute that. But the salary cap problem is actually caused by the biggest revenue teams. The majority of teams in the middle would be doing alright if not for teams like Toronto ($197m), Rangers ($169m), Montreal ($165m) and Vancouver ($146m) that are so far above everyone else that they are skewing the cap up.

And the problem is getting worse. The top grossing teams are growing at a rate higher than the middle, and far higher than the bottom. Lowering the players' share to 50% from 57% (per the other sports agreements) only alleviates the problem in the short term. The union needs to force the owners into a more significant revenue sharing program. Probably something like what the teams did in the early years of the league - the visiting team gets a cut of the gate.

[calumniate]

^^ You're just reversing the equation for arguments sake, saying lower revenues are 'better', and higher revenues are 'bad'. So while you make perfect sense, you seem to be making zero business sense.

[Resolute 14]

No, I am saying that revenue disparity is bad. Moving revenues up overall is good for everybody - and it is why I expect the Isles and Coyotes are ultimately going to relocate. It wouldn't be an issue if everyone was growing at similar rates, but they aren't, and that is creating issues.

Consider Forbes' 2006 estimates: http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/31/...s_Revenue.html

Toronto at $119 million in revenue, Flames at $68 million, Phoenix at $63 million, Islanders at $56 million. Then consider 2011 estimates: Toronto $193 million, Flames $105 million, Phoenix $70 million, Islanders $63 million.

So that is a 62% growth for Toronto and 54% for Calgary. But for Phoenix, it is only 11%, and the Islanders 13%. Now, these are good case vs worst case. But for teams like Colorado and Dallas, who's revenues are flat over that time (in fact, The Isles and Coyotes are growing revenue at a higher rate), their spending power has eroded considerably.

As far as making zero business sense goes, I would agree with you if this was a normal business scenario. But the 30 teams are all interlinked, and as such, significant outliers impact everybody. In the case of spending ability and the salary cap, it is the outliers at the top that are disastrous. The league needs to find a way to ensure all teams are growing at a more aligned rate, which is where revenue sharing comes in.

[Resolute 14]

Oh, and I'm sure everyone here will appreciate the irony of how it is the likes of Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa that are causing salaries and spending to grow faster than the likes of Dallas, St. Louis and Colorado can sustain.

[troutman]

Lisa Halverstadt ‏@LisaHalverstadt
Maricopa County Superior Judge Dean Fink rules #Glendale City Council vote on #Coyotes deal should not be invalidated.

Judge rules in favor of Glendale's Phoenix Coyotes deal


http://www.azcentral.com/news/articl...-in-favor.html

Read the ruling

[Resolute 14]

Goldwater had argued arena operations were not a professional service.

Huh?

And I thought getting the signatures was supposed to be a slam dunk?

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Huh?

And I thought getting the signatures was supposed to be a slam dunk?

Although there may be no recognized academic degree in arena management, plainly a wide range of specialized knowledge, predominantly mental or intellectual, is critical to success in the field. The Court finds that the arena management contract calls for the provision of professional services and therefore falls outside the scope of the Purchasing Ordinance.

What happens next?

1) Jamison has 30 days to close deal. The ruling may provide comfort to investors.

2) Taxpayers have until July 8 IIRC, to collect enough signatures for a referendum. The only info I have seen is that "several hundred" have been obtained. They need over 1800 IIRC.

3) GWI could appeal this ruling (unlikely). GWI could still challenge the deal as a violation of the gift clause (more likely).

[troutman]

http://goldwaterinstitute.org/articl...greement-place

“We are disappointed in today’s decision,” said Goldwater Institute President Darcy Olsen. “But we are glad that Glendale taxpayers have taken matters into their own hands by working to refer the arena management deal to the ballot.”

Judge Fink ruled last week that an emergency clause printed in the ordinance that would have blocked Glendale taxpayers from referring the ordinance to the ballot was not in effect, signaling that referendum efforts could go forward. Glendale taxpayers have since been gathering petition signatures to refer the ordinance to the November 6, 2012 election ballot. Opponents of the arena management deal have until July 16 to submit roughly 1,800 signatures.

“If the arena management deal goes into effect, we will examine its terms and determine whether it violates the subsidy ban in Arizona’s constitution,” said Olsen.

Goldwater Institute ‏@GoldwaterInst @dave_zorn @gfallar
...Since 7/15 is a Sunday, the deadline is 7/16.

Lisa Halverstadt ‏@LisaHalverstadt
.@Tudec @ghosthoffa There's a dispute on when signatures are due for the #Coyotes referendum. They're usually due 30 days after a vote.

[Daradon]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Oh, and I'm sure everyone here will appreciate the irony of how it is the likes of Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa that are causing salaries and spending to grow faster than the likes of Dallas, St. Louis and Colorado can sustain.

Actually I do!

In all honesty I don't really, I just kinda like the irony. I would like to see a more stable cap, instead of one that grows 5 mill a year. But I guess if this is the reality, it's nice that the roles are reversed.

I don't mind seeing a slightly lower linkage. I think 54% would be fair (actually I think 50% would be the best, I just don't think the players should have to get slammed twice in a row, maybe reduce it slowly over a few CBA's) and I do believe the contract rules need to be tightened up to prevent the player signing until well past their due date just to lower the cap hit/year. But I'll be really pissed if we miss hockey this year again. The owners got what they needed in essence last time. If they can't make it work it's their problem.

The stupid thing is, if there is a lockout, I think it'll hurt the league a lot more than it did last time. 2 lockouts in eight years? They are playing a dangerous game here. They think revenue is bad in southern cities now? Just watch what happens if hockey disappears again. Course then there will be MORE owners in trouble, more franchises that can't make money, and the NHL STILL fighting to make it work in those cities. They are really bringing it on themselves. And that's the essence of my Phoenix argument. That's how it's hurting the league. Sure Glendale is paying the bills now, but that's not stopping the problems, only putting a bandage on a festering wound. Only causing bigger problems down the road.

All this to save a few franchises in a few cities that clearly don't care about them. (Minus a city council without a clue)

[troutman]

NHLHipster ‏@NHL_HipsterWouldnt it be ironic if Jim Balsillie went bankrupt before the #Coyotes??#RIMQuarterlyReport #hipsterlife

Jets Hockey Forum ‏@NHLWinnipegDreger says Doan will only sign if Jamison can convince him deal to save #Coyotes will be done... http://soc.li/KVyDTiX

Jeffrey Sanders ‏@JeSanders11
So 2 and a half weeks thru #gwi has 700 signatures and still need 1200 more to bring #coyotes deal to vote with only week and a half left!

[troutman]

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=399474

After everything Shane Doan has been through with the Phoenix Coyotes franchise, now he might leave?

Darren Dreger: There's a big meeting that's going to take place before July 1 with Doan meeting face-to-face with potential Coyotes' buyer Greg Jamison. If Jamison can convince Doan that he is going to be successful in his attempt to buy the Coyotes and keep them in Glendale, then Doan will not test free agency. He's got to listen to what the market is going to offer him but he's a reluctant free agent going in. His heart's in Phoenix but if there's no deal and no sense that a deal is imminent, then he's going to listen.

[troutman]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hocke...ale/55894248/1

Meanwhile, two Glendale residents seek to overturn the city's deal with a referendum on the November ballot. The activists, aided by about two dozen volunteers, have until early July to file the necessary 1,862 signatures. They said they had nearly 700 as of Thursday.

[troutman]

Our View: Taxpayers have say in Glendale's future


http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blo...torials/165019

Over the past 10 days, upset taxpayers said they will be seeking referendums on two recent council decisions — an arena agreement with a potential Coyotes’ buyer and increased sales taxes in the city.

These referendums could further exacerbate the city’s precarious financial situation.

Glendale placed itself in this position by excluding residents and business owners from budget discussions over the years. The council relied heavily on former City Manager Ed Beasley to guide Glendale, failing to fully understand the fiscal implications of his actions.

If the tax repeal is successful, the city will be short about $22 million for next year. If the arena deal is voided, Glendale will not be obligated to pay $17 million to Jamison in 2013 but still will have expenses to keep the city-owned arena operating while negotiating with a management firm. The city also faces a loss in tax revenue at Westgate City Center if the Coyotes leave.

These are rough times in Glendale.

[troutman]

CapGeek ‏@capgeek
#NHL‬ ‪#Coyotes‬ need to sign six players for average of more than $2.7M each to reach floor

[Regular_John]

It appears Joyce Clark (councilwoman in Glendale) has lost her patience and is having a bit of a meltdown on twitter today:

Joyce Clark@clarkjv

June 27th
I have blocked all Canadians. No one should have to take their abuse. Block...Block...Block

June 29th
A correction on my Canadian block. It refers to French Canadians not West Canada. I will not take abuse from foul mouthed people.

She's also been retweeting a bunch of the vulgar insults thrown her way. Can some one get her some facetime with @BizNasty2point0 so she can grasp that twitter is quite public and far reaching?

[Resolute 14]

We saw the same out of Winnipegers last year. Our passion for hockey is both a source of major pride, and at times, a major embarrassment.