[News] With the 21st overall pick Flames select C Mark Jankowski

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by SebC

We passed on a player two days older to get him though, one who plays in a men's league despite being young.

Sure, that's a fair point. With that said management clearly views Jankowski as the better long term NHL player, and I think that may have something to do with his ability to add close to 30-40 pounds of muscle to his frame, something that Teravainen seemingly does not appear to be capable off at this time.

[schooner]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

You should go back and re-read that chapter because that's not his point.

His point is that when you're born matters and that that usually is unfair for players like hockey players. He specifically says that younger players should be treated the same as older ones even though they aren't as 'good' because they're younger. If that's the case when the maturation process is over, many many good players that could have been pros aren't targetted because of our narrow focus on statistics for success.

I appreciate the discussion, so dont think Im bailing, just had a few to many drinks tonight, I'll dig up my copy of the book in the morning. I really enjoy the study of econometrics, especially to non economics problems.

[FAN]

Originally Posted by EddyBeers

NCAA is a far superior developmental program.

No it isn't.

Originally Posted by EddyBeers

Plus, if you are drafting a skill guy the NCAA is a superior program to develop skill.

No it isn't.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Katie

Collberg was a player playing against men, who many Flames fans were apparently interested in at 14. He is still available to start the 2nd round tomorrow.

Yeah, but Teravainen had points.

[Katie]

Originally Posted by SebC

Yeah, but Teravainen had points.

Yep, that is true.

To be honest I was hoping for the Flames to grab Teravainen at 14. But they must of liked Jankowski more.

Teravainen dropped much further then I thought he would.

It was an interesting first round for sure.

[flylock shox]

Well, that was a fun and interesting day.

I'm encouraged by the fact that this guy was completely off the board one year ago, and in the course of that year managed to rise to the level of a second round ranked, first round picked player.

I'll take the Malcolm Gladwell approach to this: if he started the year ranked 1000th, and ended the year ranked 42nd, that tells you how good he must have been in the last couple of months, i.e., one of the very best players going.

If nothing else, I like the sense of adventure here.

[edslunch]

Risky, risky pick compared to what was available at 14 and even 21. But a couple of things have been repeated enough on CP over the years to be prevailing wisdom:

• You need a #1C with size and skill

• Those players must be drafted

Jankowski fits the bill here. Teuvo may be more talented/accomplished now or forever but he'll never be the prototypical 'big 1C'.

Let's see how it plays out

[Cole436]

I feel like this is the level of intelligence that's coming up in this thread by those bashing the pick.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by SHOGUN

Apparently some people here know more than the people who scout amateur players for a living.

There were seven NHL teams, who drafted from 14th to 20th, and they ALL thought there are better players available than Jankowski. I'm not debating the pick itself (as I never even heard of him), but the negativity towards the pick is not baseless and it's not an opinion of some random dudes on the forum. It's opinion of SEVEN NHL organizations.

[FAN]

Originally Posted by Pointman

There were seven NHL teams, who drafted from 14th to 20th, and they ALL thought there are better players available than Jankowski. I'm not debating the pick itself (as I never even heard of him), but the negativity towards the pick is not baseless and it's not an opinion of some random dudes on the forum. It's opinion of SEVEN NHL organizations.

What does that prove? Kopitar fell in the draft because he was considered a risk. TEN NHL ORGANIZATIONS believed there were better players available, despite the fact that Kopitar was a consensus top 5 pick.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by FAN

What does that prove?

It proves nothing. As I said, I'm NOT trying to prove that Jankowski suck. Not by any stretch. What I am doing is defeating the argument that it's only clueless fans who dislike the pick. People made it out to be like this debate is "dumb fans who never saw him play" vs "highly educated Weisbrod, who scouted him heavily". The point is that there were no less than seven organizations, that scouted him as heavily, and decided that other players available were better. Could they all be wrong and Flames right? Yes. As Flames fan, I hope so. I don't like the odds of Weisbrod&Button outsmarting seven NHL teams though.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Pointman

There were seven NHL teams, who drafted from 14th to 20th, and they ALL thought there are better players available than Jankowski. I'm not debating the pick itself (as I never even heard of him), but the negativity towards the pick is not baseless and it's not an opinion of some random dudes on the forum. It's opinion of SEVEN NHL organizations.

That's the point of trading down... You think you can still get your guy because you value him more than other teams. If they knew the team picking 20th wanted Mark, they would've drafted him at 14. Feaster said as much.

Instead, he gets a second round pick that's actually higher than the one we sent Buffalo in the Regehr trade, and STILL gets his man. You'd think we'd appreciate that what with all the positive talk about trusting management that's been going on recently, but apparently doing EXACTLY what most of us want (philosophically speaking) still isn't good enough.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

If they knew the team picking 20th wanted Mark, they would've drafted him at 14. Feaster said as much.

That's exactly the point. Feaster openly gambled on Weisbrod&co being smarter than seven other organizations. Nobody knows how it will turn out, but it's risky to say the least.

[madmike]

Don't know a ton about Jankowski but I'm ok with the pick. They've obviously been watching him closely and liked what they saw.

I'll take a pick like this over the safe but low-ceiling picks of the Sutter era any day.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Pointman

That's exactly the point. Feaster openly gambled on Weisbrod&co being smarter than seven other organizations. Nobody knows how it will turn out, but it's risky to say the least.

Every draft pick relies on you gambling to be smarter than other teams. Filip Forsberg slipped to 9, Grigorenko to 12, Teravainen to 18, Gaunce to 26.

When we picked Chucko, and Pelech, nobody knew who these guys were or why we picked them. Was Kris Chucko ever going to be a top 6 forward? No. Was Pelech going to be Regehr 2.0? Maybe if he'd stayed healthy, but he was already having trouble with that.

There's a very clear reason why Feaster and co valued Jankowski so much; they think they got a top-10 talent that they need to wait an extra year for. Good on them for thinking outside the box, addressing a dire need, and picking up an extra 2nd.

[SHOGUN]

“I like to play the game more like Evgeni Malkin,” he said without a trace of arrogance. “I’m a big forward who likes to generate offense, but not necessarily a physical, power forward type.”

http://www.hockeyjournal.com/blog/ki...Mark_Jankowski

Nice.

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

That's the point of trading down... You think you can still get your guy because you value him more than other teams. If they knew the team picking 20th wanted Mark, they would've drafted him at 14. Feaster said as much.

Instead, he gets a second round pick that's actually higher than the one we sent Buffalo in the Regehr trade, and STILL gets his man. You'd think we'd appreciate that what with all the positive talk about trusting management that's been going on recently, but apparently doing EXACTLY what most of us want (philosophically speaking) still isn't good enough.

great post, its amazing how people want all these things then when they happen they complain.

"need to draft a #1 center" - that's his potential
"need to draft players with high potential" he has that
"need to pick up a 2nd rounder" - done
"trust Weisbrod's plan" - this was Weisbrod's choice

seems like alot of people just like to talk and suggest solutions but when push comes to shove its all just lip service.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Pointman

That's exactly the point. Feaster openly gambled on Weisbrod&co being smarter than seven other organizations. Nobody knows how it will turn out, but it's risky to say the least.

The thing is, who is to say that what other teams do?

The Flames have a system in place and they have made a bunch of picks that left other teams wishing that they had decided to pick higher. Baertschi last year was a home run, and Gaudreau seemingly has been one of the better picks in the later rounds and Brossoit did alright as well.

Some teams have poor scouting. If I recall correctly Buffalo does all their scouting by video and don't actually send people out to scout. The Flames were obviously being extremely thorough by scouting a guy in a high school league. Whether they over estimated his talents is yet to be seen, but using the excuse that all these other teams skipped them means that it was a bad pick is kind of bs.

Teams have different metrics and needs. Tampa needed a goalie, and took the best one. Several D-men were taken. The forwards were either Teravainen or two way guys that are a bit tougher. You also don't know of the scouts that saw him, if any of them were from the teams between 14 and 21.

You can get quality from anywhere and on paper Jankowski has as much or better upside than most of the forwards in the draft, with the only drawback that he'll take a couple years to see whether you're getting a Joe Nieuwendyk calibre player, or a Wayne Primeau calibre player.

[GreenLantern2814]

The other thing is this: If they'd drafted him at 14, everyone would have said 'Why did you draft him at 14? You could've traded down and got him later and picked up a 2nd. Dammit Feaster!'

[Karl]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

You'd think we'd appreciate that what with all the positive talk about trusting management that's been going on recently, but apparently doing EXACTLY what most of us want (philosophically speaking) still isn't good enough.

Some people it seems still want both JBow AND/OR Stajan off this team by pretty much any means necessary. (Not necessarily you, GL2814)

And who knows, maybe that'll happen, but whether it does or does not, I'm not gonna lose any sleep over JBow going or much sleep over Stajan leaving. With my Stajan bias though, I'd rather see him stay here, but I'm at the point where if he does go then that'll be just as well too. Then we won't have to hear people ####ting on those two on & off.