John Frickin Gaudreau!

[Cole436]

Originally Posted by PlayfulGenius

Firstly, I don't consider Byron an NHLer yet.

Secondly, its a little much to expect players from this past draft or even the previous one to be in the NHL...its likely better to take a cross section of drafts previous to that to get an accurate figure.

Thirdly, of the percentage of 2nd rounders that make the NHL, what percentage are actually impact players?

Based on these 3 points... Yes, I'd take a 2nd rounder for Byron.

Ok, lets look from 2000-2008 to get perspective
Out of the 270 players chosen, 69 of them have been what we would consider impact players. That's a 25% chance of getting a solid NHL'er in the second round.
That Byron has already played in the show is a really good sign compared to the fate of a lot of second round picks.

[PlayfulGenius]

Originally Posted by Cole436

Ok, lets look from 2000-2008 to get perspective
Out of the 270 players chosen, 69 of them have been what we would consider impact players. That's a 25% chance of getting a solid NHL'er in the second round.
That Byron has already played in the show is a really good sign compared to the fate of a lot of second round picks.

1 in 4 chance of landing a solid NHLer?!?!

Quick, trade Byron and 3 others just like him!!

Your stats have solidified my stance

[868904]

Originally Posted by Moya

Then you are going to be disappointed more times than not.

Second round picks - 2004-2008 (So far)

2004 Draft - 17 players have yet to play an NHL game.

2005 Draft - 13 players have yet to play an NHL game.

2006 Draft - 14 players have yet to play an NHL game.

2007 Draft - 16 players have yet to play an NHL game. - Byrons draft (was taken in the 6th round)

2008 Draft - 13 players have yet to play an NHL game.

What you are failing to consider which has been pointed out by another poster is that Byron can't be compared to an 18 year old. He already had a few years of development in the pro ranks and frankly, the Flames pro scouts should have had a better idea of what Byron's ceiling is.

They traded a 2nd round pick who had the "potential" to be much more than a 3rd line energy guy.

Is a 3rd line energy guy really going to make a difference for this team in the present or future?

Kipper for a 2nd made sense, Kipper had the "potential" to be a no. 1 goalie.

Bourque for a 2nd made sense, Bourque had the "potential" to be a top 6 forward.

Nilson for a 2nd made sense, because the guy was an established NHL player and could play various roles.

Byron for a 2nd doesn't make sense, unless some of the value of that second rounder was also for getting rid of Kotalik's contract, in which case, Byron was not worth a 2nd rounder alone.

[Roof-Daddy]

Wait a sec.....did I miss something, or has Byron already peaked out at 23 years of age?

He's already reached his "ceiling"?

How about we judge a trade where we received a 25 year old d-man, and a 22 year old forward with a calender, rather than a stop watch. (To quote BB)

[Heavy Jack]

Are we really bringing up the Byron for a 2nd rounder part of that trade again??? Lets wait 3-4 years and let both Byron and who ever the second rounder turns out to be actually reach what ever their eventual value/potential is before we right the trade off either way. There is no way to tell which is the better piece right now..... So how bout that Gaudreau kid!

[GoFlamesGo1989]

Stop with the Byron chit chat the is about "John Frickin Gaudreau"

[Heavy Jack]

Originally Posted by PlayfulGenius

1 in 4 chance of landing a solid NHLer?!?!

Quick, trade Byron and 3 others just like him!!

Your stats have solidified my stance

How? Because Byron didnt score 3 goals in his first 5 NHL games?? There is nothing right now that suggests who ever Buffalo picks with their 2nd rounder has a better chance of makin the NHL than Byron, in fact Byron is already further along than that 2nd round pick and HAS had a couple cups of coffee so far too. If you look at it Byron has a better chance at becoming an impact player in the NHL than that 2nd round pick ATM because he is further along in his development and has actually made it past most of that 75 percent.

[PlayfulGenius]

Dude, I disagree, get over it.

I simply don't see Byron establishing himself as an impact player in the NHL...itt has nothing to do with how many goals he did or did not score in a 5 game stance.

Also, whether the pick the Sabres choose makes it or not isn't relevant, as its extremely unlikely the Flames would have chosen the same player.

Its very relevant from BUF's perspective though, of course.

[PlayfulGenius]

Anyway, I agree this thread should stick to Gaudreau... Whom I would NOT trade for a 2nd rounder

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by PlayfulGenius

Anyway, I agree this thread should stick to Gaudreau... Whom I would NOT trade for a 2nd rounder

I am not sure what Gaudreau's worth could possibly be now. This kid seems to have some 'magic' around him.

This is how I look at Gaudreau right now. Say we live in 'make believe land', and NYR offered us Kreider straight up for Gaudreau, you simply have to make that trade. However, that trade in 6-8 years might then seem bad for the Flames, and then in 20 years could be the worst trade ever. Gaudreau is the type of player that COULD just develop into something really special.. and he may very well never make the NHL.

There is no prospect right now that is more intriguing than Gaudreau is to me. He is the epitome of the "Boom or Bust" pick - could never make the NHL, or could be a Franchise player (yep, I said it). I don't think there is a player in the Flames' org (including Baertschi) who has a high of a ceiling (and I personally feel Baertschi will be hovering near a point a game - and for a few seasons, above that).

To me, it seems like his chance of making it to the NHL increased by 'x' percentage (20%? Some arbitrary figure - he looks slightly more probable of actually making it as we have seen him play against bigger guys, and actually do very well), but his ceiling (at least to me) seems to have catapulted up. Maybe I wasn't so high on him (though I did like him the more I heard about him before his season started) but I either underestimated him big time, or he just raised his own ceiling.

Maybe I am too high on him now...

[Robbob]

Fleury was barely over 150 lbs coming into the league back in the late 80's. Gaudreau apparantly is around 150 right now. I think the wear and tear of a long NHL season might catch up to him but he has some great hockey sense and doesn't look that out of place (albeit from videos) playing against players 50-60 lbs heavier and foot taller.

[PlayfulGenius]

I thought he was at about 135lbs?

Is that outdated info?

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by PlayfulGenius

I thought he was at about 135lbs?

Is that outdated info?

Boston College lists him at 150 lbs.

Nathan Gerbe is the smallest player in the NHL right now at 5'5'' and has turned into a 30-40 pts guy (prorated for a full season) for the Sabres.

If Gaudreau can match that kind of performance he would be a successful 4th round pick.

[TheGrimm]

Hey, at the end of the day it was a gamble that I would probably have made in Feasters shoes... We were a team without much skill, and he knew the risk was size.. Hopefully it pays off..

I just hope the kid can figure out a strategy to bulk up a bit but not lose that slippery edge he seems to have.

[flamesaresmokin]

Originally Posted by TheGrimm

Hey, at the end of the day it was a gamble that I would probably have made in Feasters shoes... We were a team without much skill, and he knew the risk was size.. Hopefully it pays off..

I just hope the kid can figure out a strategy to bulk up a bit but not lose that slippery edge he seems to have.

He's young. He'll naturally put on muscle as he matures and works out at higher levels. His game seems to be fine playing against much bigger and older competition in the NCAA so I don't see it a huge concern. Obviously it would be good to add some muscle to stand up to the rigors of a full nhl season but he's a long ways off from that and will probably show up to camp this fall looking a whole lot different then he did last year.

[PlayfulGenius]

Is eligible for, and on anyone's radar for, the WJHC?

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by PlayfulGenius

Is eligible for, and on anyone's radar for, the WJHC?

He was invited to try out for the US team last year, but was cut.

I suspect he'll make the team next year...

[Ashasx]

Just thought this was interesting, considering HF rarely praises Flames prospects: http://www.hockeysfuture.com/article...-ncaa-forwards

...it is these attributes that make him one of the most promising NHL prospects with the greatest potential currently playing in the collegiate ranks.

Bill Arnold is also on the list.

Things are improving.

[Pierre "Monster" McGuire]

Boy do I love seeing not one, but two Flames prospects in the top 10 drafted NCAA prospects.

I can't wait to see the Flames development camp this year.

[sureLoss]

Gaudreau article on the Flames website:

http://flames.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=634669

After all, the Flames 2011 fourth round draft pick stands just 5-foot-8, weighs 150 lbs. and was a true freshman joining an Eagles squad with several established forwards vying for ice time. It looked like all odds were stacked against the diminutive winger when it came to earning a top-six spot in his first year in Boston.

And then he went and blew all expectations out of the water.

"I really liked Gaudreau a lot coming out of the championship season at Dubuque last season," Kirk Luedeke of the New England Hockey Journal told CalgaryFlames.com in an email. "But I did not anticipate the kind of impact season he would have as a freshman at Boston College.

"His progression over the last two years has been about as seamless as it gets."

While the success Gaudreau has had in Boston this year has left a lot of people very optimistic about his future, making the transition to the NHL is not easy. History has shown that being a dominant player in junior, NCAA or AHL ranks doesn't always equate to being able to make the leap to The Show. However, Lueduke's observations over the past couple of years makes him believe Gaudreau has the skill set and the intangibles needed to push him to the next level.

"I absolutely do feel he will be an NHL player," he said. "Johnny Gaudreau strikes me as one of those special players who simply has the hockey sense, drive and heart to go with his natural talent.

"Whether he can translate those gifts into a top-six scoring role remains to be seen, but he's done a great job of proving the doubters wrong his entire life."