GDT: The Alberta Election 2012 - The Morning After - PC Majority Government

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Huh, they won a overwhelming majority, its business as usual, they know Albertan's either won't show up on election day which is what the conservatives want, or they're too lazy or frightend to ask for change.

Business as usual in Alberta has hardly been that bad. Especially the past 40 years.

The Wild Rose wasn't even close to ready to being capable of governing. They have a chance to gain some experience, set some more realistic policies in their platform, and build some credibility now. Which will hopefully make the governing Conservatives more mindful of the policies they put in place. The WRA has had some huge growth, and like any entity, too much growth too fast can lead to a catastrophic bubble bursting. For the long term sake of that party, this is the better result.

[shermanator]

I think what this election shows the most is that Albertans want change, but that there is no party that effectively represents the change they want. Therefore they vote for the devil they know. To myself, the fact that there is no one who stood for the kind of change I want is the real disappointing thing.

I'm back to not caring about politics anymore...

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Sure. I think the questions are more about the huge discrepancy between the polling earlier and the actuals. Unless you told pollsters you were voting WRP and changed your mind?

At first glance, the polling numbers look way off, but that's not necessarily the case. wrp support was off by about 3%, and lib and ndp off by 1-2%. None of that is unusual. the thing is, all these people had the same second choice. Wrp supporters that got worried about the nutters turned to the pcs because it was their second choice. Ndp and lib supporters turned to pcs to stop said nutters. Not surprising then to see such a jump in pc support. Usually, late movement is more mixed than this time.

But the proportional swing model also is to blame. It's a good model most of the time, but every now and then it gets blown out of the water. Threehundredeight.com had the libs getting 11%, and zero seats. Instead, they're at 10%, and 4 seats. I knew something was screwy with the model this time around when they showed Swann losing by 20%, even though all signs on the ground said he'd be safe.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by Dion

Didn't WR have a smaller spending promise than the PC's?

They did, but you do realize that it is possible that some other people might think that forced balanced budgets and large cuts (or freezes/reductions) to health/education/infrastructure spending might actually be a bad financial plan?

I understand that you don't think that way, but there is a fairly logical train of thought that could make someone else feel that way.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Makarov

Raj is making a big comeback and currently leading in his riding! Really happy to see that!

Ugh. That was just about the only good news tonight. Was really hoping that clown would have lost.

Funny thing is, well before the election, this is about what I expected for Wildrose - big gains, but official opposition. I guess we'll see how well they do in the next four years, and hope Redford doesn't screw things up quite as badly as I expect she will.

I think the pollsters will have a lot of questions to answer after this one. They all screwed up badly.

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by nik-

Why is Edmonton so left compared to Calgary?

Calgary is as white collar as it gets in North America. Edmonton is kind of Canada's Seattle.

In all seriousness, over the decades people move to Calgary to become accountants or the like. Over the decades people move to Edmonton for more blue collar jobs. Obviously not exclusively but as a trend. more field work up there, more head offices down here.

[oilyfan]

Originally Posted by Dion

I have no faith that Redford will make the right descions. She was the one that originaly was going to nothing about the no pay comittee and still would have if not for the election. Then there the tax credit to teachers or the promise of help to First responders as to workers comp - that smacks of vote buying. I also want to know the truth about bullying in health care but have doubts we will see a serious investigation.

I'm also tired of the PC hypocrisy. How can you tell public sector workers to tighten thier belts as to pay raises when you as a party vote yourselves 30% pay raises

If you think Albertans thought that the no-meet committees and the MLA pay are the primary challenges facing them over the coming years, hopefully this election has proven how out of touch that tought really was.

I believe Albertans recognized that Education and Healthcare are issues worth fighting for, not "conscience rights". When Redford announced the initiative to open 140 new family care centres, a program that is proven in other provinces to lessen the load on frontline doctors and ER's, the first thing that Dave Rutherford said on 630 CHED was "where are we going to find the patients to fill them?". I shook my head and realized how out of touch right wing Alberta is with the Progressive wave sweeping the province.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Dion, Captain....I don't disagree with a lot of your points, and wasn't crazy about what the PC's had to say either. I guess at the end of the day though, as with most voters, some issues resonated with me more than others.

Fair enough

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Sure. I think the questions are more about the huge discrepancy between the polling earlier and the actuals. Unless you told pollsters you were voting WRP and changed your mind?

I actually told one poll (I am fairly certain it was a WRP push poll though) that I was voting WRP after my brush with Ric McIver left a foul taste in my mouth. I ended up going PC today because in the end Wayne Anderson, despite his glowing words, didn't actually DO anything different.

[Kipperriffic]

hmm did not expect WRP to get such low #s!

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by nik-

Why is Edmonton so left compared to Calgary?

Government and union town. The city is run by the kind of people that thrive on spending other people's money.

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Business as usual in Alberta has hardly been that bad. Especially the past 40 years.

The Wild Rose wasn't even close to ready to being capable of governing. They have a chance to gain some experience, set some more realistic policies in their platform, and build some credibility now. Which will hopefully make the governing Conservatives more mindful of the policies they put in place. The WRA has had some huge growth, and like any entity, too much growth too fast can lead to a catastrophic bubble bursting. For the long term sake of that party, this is the better result.

yep. reminds me of the national NDP party. Just cashing in on protest votes. You get scared when you think about how their ideas would actually play out in reality.

[Senator Clay Davis]

My only possible guess as to why these polls were so ridiculously bad is they only used 403 area codes when polling.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Rathji

I actually told one poll (I am fairly certain it was a WRP push poll though) that I was voting WRP after my brush with Ric McIver left a foul taste in my mouth. I ended up going PC today because in the end Wayne Anderson, despite his glowing words, didn't actually DO anything different.

Wayne Anderson's biggest selling point was that he isn't Ric McIver. Condescending prick that McIver is, you can bet he demanded a portfolio in return for being a star candidate for Redford.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by oilyfan

If you think Albertans thought that the no-meet committees and the MLA pay are the primary challenges facing them over the coming years, hopefully this election has proven how out of touch that tought really was.

I believe Albertans recognized that Education and Healthcare are issues worth fighting for, not "conscience rights". When Redford announced the initiative to open 140 new family care centres, a program that is proven in other provinces to lessen the load on frontline doctors and ER's, the first thing that Dave Rutherford said on 630 CHED was "where are we going to find the patients to fill them?". I shook my head and realized how out of touch right wing Alberta is with the Progressive wave sweeping the province.

Trimming the fat in health care and education should be the way to go but voters rejected that idea from Smith. Throwing dollars after dollars at health care isn't going to solve the problem and the PC govt hasn't shown me they know how to manage health care.

As for primary care centers....

The Alberta Medical Association fired back at the idea, saying the family care clinic model is “untried and unproven” and will trample over Alberta's fledgling Primary Care Networks. When Ms. Redford opened three pilot-project family care clinics just before the campaign began, she forced the closure of an existing east Calgary PCN clinic.

“It was in the same location and providing the same services – at least, as nearly as we can tell – so we felt it was overkill in terms of services and over-duplication,” says Calgary doctor Mark Sosnowski of the Mosaic PCN, which closed its centre one business day before the government clinic opened.

As such, in making her pledge, Ms. Redford triggered a spat with doctors, big-footed an existing clinic and hasn't clearly said how she'll pay for it all.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...ontent=2410144

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

My only possible guess as to why these polls were so ridiculously bad is they only used 403 area codes when polling.

We'll never know but I bet the lunatic fringe of the WR that show'd itself over the last week killed them. They didn't have any real credibility to rely on in the first place. Just a bunch of Albertians who want to teach the PCs a lesson. WR showed to be a very scary protest vote.

[You Need a Thneed]

Going to be a late one in Calgary-McCall yet, last two polls coming in have closed the gap. 262 votes separating first from third.

[sworkhard]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

My only possible guess as to why these polls were so ridiculously bad is they only used 403 area codes when polling.

They were so bad because of the insanely large swing vote, which ultimately went PC. Something like 25% of Albertans polled were undecided a couple days before the election. In addition, the polls released yesterday indicated that PC support had jumped and Wildrose support had fallen over the weekend indicating that the PC's had the momentum.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Maybe but at least I'm honest about my strong dislike for the job that the Conservative Party over the past couple of terms and how corrupt and tired that they've become.

This election would have been a chance for them to receive a message that their conduct and policies weren't acceptable and they could have actually been motivated to fix themselves.

Instead they basically got rewarded for it and there is no reason for them to change at all.

And electing a party leader with one caucus endorsement didn't do that? Even the whole "not your father's PC party" line kind of says "message received". Redford has a chance and a mandate to clean them up. If she doesn't, WRP will get another chance to beat them.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by Makarov

Come on, Raj! Liberals desperately need that fourth seat.

Darshan Kang might get another Liberal seat as well.