April 23 2012: Alberta Provincial Election

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Slava

Thanks, I was just giving you the gears. I would come to the poker, but I am away on vacation. Besides, I would probably win and feel a little bad taking everyone's money! (OK, not that bad, but I am away!)

Bullcrap! No liberal has ever felt bad about taking other people's money!

[Bownesian]

The Liberals+NDP+Greens added up to 39.4% of the popular vote in 2008.

I don't think they would have gotten that much this time around because there were disaffected Tory voters who chose one of those parties because there was no alternative.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Bullcrap! No liberal has ever felt bad about taking other people's money!

Hey, I'm a capitalist! Like I said before, I don't agree with things like Dani-dollars but I'll cash the cheque!

[Senator Clay Davis]

So 13% of the Wildrose's individual contributors make up 67% of total individual contributions. I'm curious what everyone else's numbers look like.

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by Slava

Hey, I'm a capitalist! Like I said before, I don't agree with things like Dani-dollars but I'll cash the cheque!

A really committed political left leaning capitalist would take that money and donate it to their favorite underdog political party. They need all the money they can get.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Yup. You can't exit poll in Canada.



Agreed. On the other hand, Wildrose will be not at all competitive in several Edmonton ridings, so it should all equalize. But for the Edmonton reason alone, I think a prediction of 62 seats is remarkably optimistic. We're probably looking at the winning party ending up with 48-53 seats in my view, and I won't put money on which party gets to that total.

Calgary will be the main battleground though, which is not likely to be good news for any Liberal candidates in the city.

Well I still think that there are Liberals who will do well, and most of the swing is in ridings where the Liberals were longshots at best. Here is another poll from Calgary Buffalo for example. If anything this is bad for the PCs who needed to have a shot in ridings like this if they were going to dominate the middle.
http://www.kenthehr.com/2012/04/inte...drose-locally/

I heard a few radio commercials this morning and they made me laugh. I point this to you Resolute because you've been fond of saying how the PCs have been playing the fear card. That Wildrose ad is a pure fear ad though. Couple that with the phone call that Heather Forsyth sent out (which I have but have no idea how to post) and you have a pure negative and fear-mongering strategy.

I think its a shame. While we have an election where change is imminent, there has been very little discussion about the issues. I blame the journalists as much as anyone for that; I would like some discussion of the policies that the parties have put forward and what that comes down to. Its too bad that nothing has been done on that front at all.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Rerun

A really committed political left leaning capitalist would take that money and donate it to their favorite underdog political party. They need all the money they can get.

I do donate money actually, even to civic campaigns where you get no tax break.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by Slava

Couple that with the phone call that Heather Forsyth sent out (which I have but have no idea how to post) and you have a pure negative and fear-mongering strategy.

I don't know about this particular call, but there is an open investigation.


http://www.wildrose.ca/press-release...ildrose-calls/

Bulk of Wildrose calling today and tomorrow will be live callers and to known supporters only.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by First Lady

I don't know about this particular call, but there is an open investigation.


http://www.wildrose.ca/press-release...ildrose-calls/

Bulk of Wildrose calling today and tomorrow will be live callers and to known supporters only.

Ya, and thats fine. I posted about that as soon as I saw it as well (it's deplorable). I haven't heard those in question, but this Forsyth call is negative and explicitly says its from her office and gives a phone number. Sure sounds like a WR call, with a lot of the expected rhetoric if its not.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by Slava

Ya, and thats fine. I posted about that as soon as I saw it as well (it's deplorable). I haven't heard those in question, but this Forsyth call is negative and explicitly says its from her office and gives a phone number. Sure sounds like a WR call, with a lot of the expected rhetoric if its not.

Some of the calls in northern Alberta are a recording of Danielle. It doesn't make them legit. Some of the people hit by these have gotten the same call upwards of 30 times in 24 hours!!

They are designed to sound very much like a legit call, but they are harassing in and annoyingly persistent.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Slava

I heard a few radio commercials this morning and they made me laugh. I point this to you Resolute because you've been fond of saying how the PCs have been playing the fear card. That Wildrose ad is a pure fear ad though. Couple that with the phone call that Heather Forsyth sent out (which I have but have no idea how to post) and you have a pure negative and fear-mongering strategy.

No, the PCs have a "pure negative and fear-mongering strategy". It's all they've done for weeks. Every single commercial I have seen in the last three weeks has led off with "Wildrose is scary". It is as if even the PCs themselves know they can't sell Redford as an effective leader. They can't bring themselves up, they can only hope to take the other side down.

Wildrose has had its share of negative ads too - I never claimed otherwise. But the balance is far more even. They'll tear down their opposition like every other party does, but they are also building themselves up.

As to your final paragraph, I would blame it more on the public than the journalists. Most people vote only on impressions. And those impressions - good and bad - are going to be formed via soundbites because most people won't stop and research the positions of their candidates.

[Slava]

I just think that it's funny that you deride the PCs for going negative, but think its fine for the Wildrose. I know you won't ever agree with me, and thats fine, but its still amusing.

I leave the lack of policy to the journalists because people don't have time or access. Its great that the Wildrose has proposed changes to healthcare for example, but it would be nice to have a discussion about what kind of impact those changes would have. Scrapping AHS for example....I'm just a guy, so I have no idea what that really means. Instead this election has been about who loves Alberta, that 41 years is too long (but 37 years was fine apparently), and other inane topics. It's really too bad, and not just because of who is leading the polls. Its too bad because these are important topics, and important for all Albertans.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I don't think anyone's happy that this campaign has had far too much sideshow and not enough issues being discused. I think the PCs strategy would have been wiser to focus on actual issues cause thats where I think the real weaknesses in the Wildrose platform are at.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Slava

Hey, I'm a capitalist! Like I said before, I don't agree with things like Dani-dollars but I'll cash the cheque!

If you really really feel guilty can I have your cheque?

[Senator Clay Davis]

This is the most in depth and perhaps telling poll I've seen. Now granted it was released on April 9th, but I don't remember seeing a poll with this many questions. I'd say it bodes pretty well for the PCs.

http://www.legermarketing.com/admin/...ril_9_2012.pdf

[Slava]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

If you really really feel guilty can I have your cheque?

Lol. I don't feel guilty, I just think its stupid policy. Like I said, I'll still cash it.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Slava

I just think that it's funny that you deride the PCs for going negative, but think its fine for the Wildrose. I know you won't ever agree with me, and thats fine, but its still amusing.

*sigh* Like I just said. I'm deriding the PC's because everything is negative. Their entire commercial campaign has been "Ohmigod! Wildrose is scary and evil and will destroy everything you care about. See? We're not so bad by comparison, eh?" Like I said, their commercials leave me with the impression that they don't believe they can bring Redford up over their opponents.

[Slava]

You've just ignored the positive commercials though, they're not all negative. I can see why (because they're boring and not as notable), but that doesn't mean that they don't exist. Where are all of the positive, butterfly and lollipop Wildrose commercials? Maybe there's still time for a starving family to open their $300 cheque and have a couple of weeks of food before the close of polls tomorrow? (don't get upset...that commercial would be awesome, and I think anyone would agree!)

[Senator Clay Davis]

Here is the PC donor information

General Info

http://www.votepc.ca/admin/contentx/...d=2537&r=10187

$375 or more contributors (including corporate)

http://www.votepc.ca/public/data/doc...l202012pdf.pdf

[GGG]

The PCs lost my vote with the slogan on their mailout

No new taxes, No Service Cuts.....

So the only way that happens is deficits, or its a lie. Either way its not sustainable