April 23 2012: Alberta Provincial Election

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

New poll predicting an absolute rout
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle2410297/

I sincerely doubt its going to be that lopsided. At least I hope its not that lopsided

Ugh. Stupid democracy.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

New poll predicting an absolute rout
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle2410297/

I sincerely doubt its going to be that lopsided. At least I hope its not that lopsided

It's going to be hard to tell. It really depends on what happens with seat distribution. For example I can see the Wildrose winning some rural seats by 20-30%, but that still only equates to 1 seat. Which would be the same as a 1% win for the PCs or Liberals over the Wildrose. So overall they will without question have the strongest overall percentage of the vote, which will be strengthened by leads in the rural areas, but how that transitions to seats in Edmonton and Calgary will the interesting part.

[GirlySports]

Have they done any exit polls on the advance voters?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

It's going to be hard to tell. It really depends on what happens with seat distribution. For example I can see the Wildrose winning some rural seats by 20-30%, but that still only equates to 1 seat. Which would be the same as a 1% win for the PCs or Liberals over the Wildrose. So overall they will without question have the strongest overall percentage of the vote, which will be strengthened by leads in the rural areas, but how that transitions to seats in Edmonton and Calgary will the interesting part.

This is exactly right. Same goes within the city for all parties. They have some that they win with a huge figure and others they might be out of completely. I think its a lot closer than the polls indicate and I've heard that from basically every party now, FWIW.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Have they done any exit polls on the advance voters?

I think exit polls are illegal.

[transplant99]

I still believe the reason that the WR rolls to a majority tomorrow is because of the undecided voters and that Smith and Co. lead absolutely every category that the undecided usually end up basing their choice on.

I wont be shocked with any particular result mind you as it has been clear the last few days that the PC's have had a really strong push...but is it enough?

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I still believe the reason that the WR rolls to a majority tomorrow is because of the undecided voters and that Smith and Co. lead absolutely every category that the undecided usually end up basing their choice on.

I wont be shocked with any particular result mind you as it has been clear the last few days that the PC's have had a really strong push...but is it enough?

What categories are those?
I'm curious because I'm a decided person.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

What categories are those?
I'm curious because I'm a decided person.

Favorability of the leaders, likability, direction of the current government etc etc...all and i mean all of them favored the WR .....up until the last few days at any rate.

Also poll after poll after poll have shown the WR in majority territory before adding in undecideds....i think many could be stunned tomorrow and although the winds seem to be blowing in one direction that could also change at the moment of marking the X...change is hard for a lot of folks.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Makarov

Ugh. Stupid democracy.

Not only is it democracy, but it's first-past-the-post which is a terrible form of democracy.

[Knalus]

PC's deserve to be routed.

[Fire]

Originally Posted by Makarov

Ugh. Stupid democracy.

I have a feeling you wouldn't be complaining if your favourite party was winning.

Just like the federal liberal supporters had no problems with the Chretien Government having a majority with far less than 50% of the vote but has soon as the Conversatives win a majority the voting system is all of a sudden undemocratic.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by Slava

(First Lady's invite must have gotten lost in the mail).

I will be scrutineering. I've got closing/counting shift. I won't be able to see any results until the polling place I'm at closes and let's us. With the number and added complexity of the senate count; we could be there very late.

The big Wildrose bash will be in High River, but most of our candidates will just be watching (hopefully celebrating) at their own campaign offices.

I will extent an invite to you though, to our #pokerpolitweetup on Friday 27th.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by Fire

I have a feeling you wouldn't be complaining if your favourite party was winning.

No, of course not. That was the whole point of my complaint.

Originally Posted by Fire

Just like the federal liberal supporters had no problems with the Chretien Government having a majority with far less than 50% of the vote but has soon as the Conversatives win a majority the voting system is all of a sudden undemocratic.

I wasn't complaining about first-past-the-post inequalities. I was only expressing (tongue in cheek of course) my frustration that the party I don't want to form my government looks like it is going to form my government. Is that not a legitimate complaint?

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Slava

I think exit polls are illegal.

Yup. You can't exit poll in Canada.

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

It's going to be hard to tell. It really depends on what happens with seat distribution. For example I can see the Wildrose winning some rural seats by 20-30%, but that still only equates to 1 seat. Which would be the same as a 1% win for the PCs or Liberals over the Wildrose. So overall they will without question have the strongest overall percentage of the vote, which will be strengthened by leads in the rural areas, but how that transitions to seats in Edmonton and Calgary will the interesting part.

Agreed. On the other hand, Wildrose will be not at all competitive in several Edmonton ridings, so it should all equalize. But for the Edmonton reason alone, I think a prediction of 62 seats is remarkably optimistic. We're probably looking at the winning party ending up with 48-53 seats in my view, and I won't put money on which party gets to that total.

Calgary will be the main battleground though, which is not likely to be good news for any Liberal candidates in the city.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I think people who gravitate to the center and those to the center left are going to be left to wonder "What If?" when this election is done. This is really the first time in the history of the province that there was a split vote that opened the door to take a lot more seats for either the Liberals, NDP or Alberta Party but no breakthrough came. I wonder if they don't try to consolidate into one party (keep it the Alberta Party name cause the other two are toxic in Alberta) when the election is over, especially if there's a minority. I think that would set them up well for the next election.

[Resolute 14]

Given they are polling 20% combined for the most part, they would still be a very distant third even if unified. Especially since a leftist PC party has stolen most of the Liberal base.

[Senator Clay Davis]

But I think there's a lot of people voting PC because they view them as more progressive than conservative now, and there's the portion voting PC because they don't want Wildrose. A think a combined center left party could poll closer to 35% if they ran an effective campaign.

[Resolute 14]

Except that is almost where the PCs are now. And neither the NDP nor the Liberals are anywhere close to centre under their current leaders.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by First Lady

I will be scrutineering. I've got closing/counting shift. I won't be able to see any results until the polling place I'm at closes and let's us. With the number and added complexity of the senate count; we could be there very late.

The big Wildrose bash will be in High River, but most of our candidates will just be watching (hopefully celebrating) at their own campaign offices.

I will extent an invite to you though, to our #pokerpolitweetup on Friday 27th.

Thanks, I was just giving you the gears. I would come to the poker, but I am away on vacation. Besides, I would probably win and feel a little bad taking everyone's money! (OK, not that bad, but I am away!)

[First Lady]

This was just released to media, it isn't on Wildrose website yet.

Consider it my personal scoop to CP

Wildrose Releases Complete Campaign Contribution Information

April 22, 2012 (Calgary, AB): As part of the Wildrose commitment to restoring accountability and transparency to the Alberta government, Wildrose is pleased to disclose its election campaign contributions in advance of Monday’s election.

Wildrose remains overwhelmingly funded by individual donations from everyday Albertans. Since the election began on March 26, 2012, Wildrose received $2,372,678.76 from 6,924 contributors.

During this election, $1,751,196.76 was contributed by individuals – 74% of the total – while only 26% came from corporations.

Of those contributors, 897 contributed more than $375, the disclosure amount set by Elections Alberta, totaling $1,586,376.49. Wildrose received $786,302.27 in donations less than $375 from 6,027 contributors, with an average donation amount of $130.46 per contributor.

“I’m thrilled with the support we’ve received from everyday Albertans,” said Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith. “Clearly our message of offering new ideas which put Albertans first is resonating with Alberta families who are tired of watching PC politicians line their own pockets with our tax dollars.

“The PCs are ending this campaign the way they began it – with a broken promise. The Redford PCs promised to disclose their contribution information on a weekly basis, and they’ve failed to follow through on that commitment.

“When it comes to transparency, Wildrose walks the talk – we believe Albertans deserve to know who funds our political parties before the election is over.”

In 2011, Wildrose set a new fundraising record for an opposition party in Alberta, raising over $2.7 million, largely from individual contributors.

A detailed backgrounder is attached which lists those contributors whose contributions exceeded the Elections Alberta contribution limit of $375.

Now on website, so you can see the over $375.00 contributors.

http://www.wildrose.ca/press-release...roken-promise/

Here is the news coverage of Redford's original promise

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/...416/story.html

I've been all over their website. I can't find it.