April 23 2012: Alberta Provincial Election

[Senator Clay Davis]

But for instance, decreasing the number of MLAs decreases the size of government for sure, but unless that money is saved it doesn't necessarily make it more fiscally conservative. Spending that money on something else is just redistributing where the money is spent. I agree we need to do more with less, but the size of government has less to do with it than the efficiency of the dollars spent. A government can have 20 MLAs, doesn't necessarily mean they'll spend the money wisely. I think electing better people would help things more than electing fewer people.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Lets be real about the Wildrose: They are true not fiscal conservatives. In fact of all the party platforms I've looked at, amazingly the Liberal platform is probably the most fiscally conservative (save the tax increase).

No real party in this election can actually claim the podium of being actually fiscally prudent. Those who put a lot of credence in the 'Infrastruture spending' arguement have a romaticized view of the job the government does at being able to correctly identify and execute on which projects should go ahead for the good of the Province. Also laughable is the thought that the government can be pro-active on the economy and enact stimulus spending ahead of slowdowns, and effectively pull back on stimulus through recovery phases. (I'm not arguing that Kaynesian economics is an utter failure, it's actually effective in stabalizing an economic panic, it's just that the institution of government lacks the dicipline to withdraw spending in the recovery phase). It's a formula to create layers of waste on the alter of good intentions.

The Tories have just been blindly building stuff for the past 5 years. Perfect example is the South Hospital. They have bungled the execution of it's construction with out of control cost overruns and delays, and now that it's opening is on the horizon it's well known to AHS staff that they have no means of properly staffing it due to administrative errors taken over the last 5 years. Turns out that opening a bed at the South hospital actually would take away a bed at an existing facility. In the end all that's been achieved is capital spent inefficiently. Just because Allison Redford is clearly smarter than Ed Stelmach doesn't mean this approach will change.

On the Wildrose side, it's also laughable to think they can achieve their high level fiscal goals (I say high level because as Slava correctly pointed out their platform clearly identifies that they lacked the capacity to get under the hood of the numbers and do a reality check on their fiscal goals). Ultimately a potential Wildrose majority government would find that balancing the books is going to be more difficult than just moving the curser to the left (like in Sim City!) or just simply make a capital plan 4 years instead of 3 years for the same level of funding . They will realize that despite being full of bloat and excess the civil service won't do the same job they do now for 5-10% less money. Ultimately something will have to give, either they run a deficit longer than anticipated, or services will have to be hacked to some degree to get there.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I'm looking at it in terms of, as always for me, the numbers. Raising more revenue now means in theory you can collect less later, thus keeping taxes down more in the future

lol.

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by Slava

To a "T". Thats interesting. How does the fact that they are not going to balance the budget fit that definition? I have yet to hear a contradiction to my point that they are somewhere between $200M-$600M away from a balance budget, and that's based on their own figures.

To add to that, Alberta can still be the lowest taxed jurisdiction in the country, which happens to fit the fiscal conservatism definition you are using (off wikipedia of all places!). It doesn't mean that taxes can never go up, it means low taxes....which we would still have!

Slava, your numbers are based on your own projections only, and certainly aren't set in stone any more than another projection. There's a real possibility that the amount saved in the CO2 boondoggle will balance your 'shortfall' all on it's own.

The Liberal numbers fail to account for the lost business due to increases in tax rates. Of course, they like to pretend that won't happen, but everyone knows when you raise taxes often you see a loss in productivity and overall revenues (laffer curve). So one could easily claim their balanced budget is wrong as well.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

lol.

I did say in theory. Just like in theory you can balance the budget while somehow improving services (and cutting people/costs), eventually get to surplus territory and give everyone a cheque someday. In theory sure...In reality? Pft......

[Slava]

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

Slava, your numbers are based on your own projections only, and certainly aren't set in stone any more than another projection. There's a real possibility that the amount saved in the CO2 boondoggle will balance your 'shortfall' all on it's own.

The Liberal numbers fail to account for the lost business due to increases in tax rates. Of course, they like to pretend that won't happen, but everyone knows when you raise taxes often you see a loss in productivity and overall revenues (laffer curve). So one could easily claim their balanced budget is wrong as well.

Well when every other party in the campaign acknowledges that cutting the CCS would save far less than $2B, save for the Wildrose, I know who I believe!

The Liberals are also in favour of cutting that program for example, yet they say that the savings are actually $500M. If we're using that as a guide the Wildrose has $1.5B to make up...fiscal conservative or not, thats a deep hole!

[darklord700]

http://www.calgarysun.com/2012/04/16...s-progressives

"A keen-eyed blogger named Stephen Taylor zoomed in and saw that it was indeed a boat — an offshore oil rig. In the Yellow Sea. Flying two Red Chinese communist flags."

This is fantastic write up about Redford. How can an Alberta Premier be so ignorant about Oil and Gas? My guess is Redford is so choke full of her own agenda that she doesn't even care about the O&G industry.

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well when every other party in the campaign acknowledges that cutting the CCS would save far less than $2B, save for the Wildrose, I know who I believe!

The Liberals are also in favour of cutting that program for example, yet they say that the savings are actually $500M. If we're using that as a guide the Wildrose has $1.5B to make up...fiscal conservative or not, thats a deep hole!

Of course the liberals would say that, they need justification for raising taxes.

The point is, you have no solid proof the wildrose budget wouldnt balance. Just like there is no proof that the Liberal budget would balance. Every party has made assumptions to their own benefit.

The bottom line is: The Wildrose has comitted to balancing the budget without raising taxes, preferring to limit spending. They are the only party to do so. That meets the definition of Fiscal Conservatism.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

The bottom line is: The Wildrose has comitted to balancing the budget without raising taxes, preferring to limit spending. They are the only party to do so. That meets the definition of Fiscal Conservatism.

... while also promising more and better services. Its magic!

[Slava]

Originally Posted by darklord700

http://www.calgarysun.com/2012/04/16...s-progressives

"A keen-eyed blogger named Stephen Taylor zoomed in and saw that it was indeed a boat — an offshore oil rig. In the Yellow Sea. Flying two Red Chinese communist flags."

This is fantastic write up about Redford. How can an Alberta Premier be so ignorant about Oil and Gas? My guess is Redford is so choke full of her own agenda that she doesn't even care about the O&G industry.

Ezra Levant? Ya thats unbiased comentary

That shot of the Chinese oil rig is actually more telling than what you're letting on. The future of the energy industry and commodities in general has more to do with China and SE Asia than it does with the US. I actually think that is a prescient shot to have in the commercial, but then again I'm not already working at a company where Danielle Smith's husband is an executive.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by darklord700

A simple fact about Albertan is that we are entrepreneurs and we work longer and more than the average Canadian. After that we would like to keep more of what we make. Also we are highly educated, at least the younger Albertan are. So all these Redford's giving so and so 100 million dollars acts don't fly so well with us. For we know it is our own money that Redford is giving away.

Mar is no saint for sure but at least we are not "scared" that he's going to put his hand in our pocket. This is the gist of this election. It's all about money , Smith understands it with her dividend plan and Redford doesn't with her Robin Hood act.

Its a bit of a pet peeve of mine when people speak about Alberta as if it is monolithically conservative. Please don't presume that you speak for every Albertan.

[redforever]

Originally Posted by darklord700

http://www.calgarysun.com/2012/04/16...s-progressives

"A keen-eyed blogger named Stephen Taylor zoomed in and saw that it was indeed a boat — an offshore oil rig. In the Yellow Sea. Flying two Red Chinese communist flags."

This is fantastic write up about Redford. How can an Alberta Premier be so ignorant about Oil and Gas? My guess is Redford is so choke full of her own agenda that she doesn't even care about the O&G industry.

Wow, either she, or the PC party, or a combination of both, have surrounded Redford with a completely incompetent election team.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

Of course the liberals would say that, they need justification for raising taxes.

The point is, you have no solid proof the wildrose budget wouldnt balance. Just like there is no proof that the Liberal budget would balance. Every party has made assumptions to their own benefit.

The bottom line is: The Wildrose has comitted to balancing the budget without raising taxes, preferring to limit spending. They are the only party to do so. That meets the definition of Fiscal Conservatism.

WTF are you talking about? The Liberals have costed out their entire plan and the number balance. That's the thing about numbers though: they're plain to see. You can have a peek and see exactly where the Liberal plan balances and exactly why the Wildrose plan leaves all of this out.

I understand that the Wildrose says they'll balance the budget. HOW? Its all smoke and mirrors.

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by Makarov

... while also promising more and better services. Its magic!

Like the magic of delivering services for half the cost of today.. like BC and Saskatchewan do....?

Some kinda magic.

The only magic we've seen is huge spending disappearing into nothing.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Slava

Ezra Levant? Ya thats unbiased comentary

That shot of the Chinese oil rig is actually more telling than what you're letting on. The future of the energy industry and commodities in general has more to do with China and SE Asia than it does with the US. I actually think that is a prescient shot to have in the commercial, but then again I'm not already working at a company where Danielle Smith's husband is an executive.

100% correct. The US middle class is shrinking. The middle classes in India and China are growing exponentially. I'd rather we exported more to those countries now and get supply chains going because they're going to end up buying more of our oil than US America.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by redforever

Wow, either she, or the PC party, or a combination of both, have surrounded Redford with a completely incompetent election team.

Yes, the electorate should clearly be electing its government on the basis of an advertising executive's choice in stock footage for campaign advertisements.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

Like the magic of delivering services for half the cost of today.. like BC and Saskatchewan do....?

Some kinda magic.

The only magic we've seen is huge spending disappearing into nothing.

Has it disappeared into nothing? Or has it helped to produce the most prosperous province in Canada?

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

No real party in this election can actually claim the podium of being actually fiscally prudent. Those who put a lot of credence in the 'Infrastruture spending' arguement have a romaticized view of the job the government does at being able to correctly identify and execute on which projects should go ahead for the good of the Province. Also laughable is the thought that the government can be pro-active on the economy and enact stimulus spending ahead of slowdowns, and effectively pull back on stimulus through recovery phases. (I'm not arguing that Kaynesian economics is an utter failure, it's actually effective in stabalizing an economic panic, it's just that the institution of government lacks the dicipline to withdraw spending in the recovery phase). It's a formula to create layers of waste on the alter of good intentions.

The Tories have just been blindly building stuff for the past 5 years. Perfect example is the South Hospital. They have bungled the execution of it's construction with out of control cost overruns and delays, and now that it's opening is on the horizon it's well known to AHS staff that they have no means of properly staffing it due to administrative errors taken over the last 5 years. Turns out that opening a bed at the South hospital actually would take away a bed at an existing facility. In the end all that's been achieved is capital spent inefficiently. Just because Allison Redford is clearly smarter than Ed Stelmach doesn't mean this approach will change.

I agree that Keynesian economics is often poorly executed, but I don't think that means we shouldn't try. Especially when fiscal conservatism carries its own problems.

Perfect example is the South Hospital (and moreso, the Foothills/Rockyview Hospital expansions). Blowing up Calgary General and selling Holy Cross was supposed to be efficient use of resources. Instead, we've had to build capacity to make up for what the "fiscal conservatives" took away.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by redforever

Wow, either she, or the PC party, or a combination of both, have surrounded Redford with a completely incompetent election team.

http://www.stephentaylor.ca/

Redford took down the original video with the RED China flag on. But the blogger , Stephen Taylor, still has the video on his blog.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

100% correct. The US middle class is shrinking. The middle classes in India and China are growing exponentially.

I'm amazed by your ability to spin it the way you wanted. However, Redford has since taken down this video for whatever reasons.