April 23 2012: Alberta Provincial Election

[llama64]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Like the televised debate, she again looks to dodge the question. Damn she is smart. Try to avoid answering anything and you can't offend any voters.

Edit: Redford also didn't actually endorse it....hmmmm

It's amazing how the Wild Rose has managed to make us forget that the PC's were(are?) just as bad (how they can characterize the PC's as "liberal" just blows me away).

That's why I'm AMAZED that people think Albertan's have a "real choice" this election. We don't; we have a choice between two equally disappointing parties. Though, I vote for the candidate (NOT party) I most think will represent my interests - thankfully that person isn't of either party in my riding.

[Senator Clay Davis]

No suprise...it's tightening up

Wildrose maintains a comfortable seven-point lead in the province, but the party's areas of strength are in flux. Polls last week, for instance, gave Wildrose a large lead in Calgary, the province's biggest city; Monday's poll shows the PCs with a narrow lead in Calgary, 45 to 41. Meanwhile, the right-wing Wildrose has pulled ahead in Edmonton, the least conservative enclave of the province.

Complete reversal in both cities? What a weird election...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle2403600/

[darklord700]

Wow, looks like Raj is looking for a job post election already.


====================
Raj Sherman:
To Alison and Danielle: a hypothetical. Neither of your parties win a majority, Alberta Liberals hold the balance of power, and both of you want my support.

Would you agree to name me minister of health in a coalition government?

[Senator Clay Davis]

I would want Raj as health minister in a minority. Who better to fix health care than, you know, a doctor?

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

No suprise...it's tightening up


Complete reversal in both cities? What a weird election...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle2403600/

I think provincial-level polling tends to be tremendously inaccurate (remember how the Conservatives were generally expected to lose support in 2008, according to all the poles); but there's an effect I think might make it even more inaccurate this time around. A few people I've talked with (infact, anybody I've raised the subject with) has said that they refuse to take part in any sort of robocall poll, in light of the federal robocall scandal and the possibility that these aren't actual polls and instead are either push-polls or are data-collection polls from individual parties. Admittedly, most of the people I've talked to (but not all of them) are from the left side of the spectrum, but it makes me wonder if the robocall scandal might actually have an impact on the accuracy of polling, if a significantly higher number of people are opting out of them. If that's affecting one side of the political spectrum more than the other, then it's even more problematic.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

No suprise...it's tightening up

I don't trust this poll. PC is losing in Edmonton but gaining in Calgary? Doesn't make sense at all.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by octothorp

I think provincial-level polling tends to be tremendously inaccurate (remember how the Conservatives were generally expected to lose support in 2008, according to all the poles); but there's an effect I think might make it even more inaccurate this time around. A few people I've talked with (infact, anybody I've raised the subject with) has said that they refuse to take part in any sort of robocall poll, in light of the federal robocall scandal and the possibility that these aren't actual polls and instead are either push-polls or are data-collection polls from individual parties. Admittedly, most of the people I've talked to (but not all of them) are from the left side of the spectrum, but it makes me wonder if the robocall scandal might actually have an impact on the accuracy of polling, if a significantly higher number of people are opting out of them. If that's affecting one side of the political spectrum more than the other, then it's even more problematic.

You raise an excellent point with the robocall scandal. Public trust is tough thing to get and an even tougher thing to keep. Some people very well may have no interest in participating in the polls at present or for the forseable future. And as you mention if one voting block (the left as an example) isn't participating, it will skew the results.

And I do think losing Calgary/gaining Edmonton is strange. But wasn't Danielle in Edmonton most of last week? Could explain her bump. Losing Calgary I can't rightly explain that one...

[Slava]

Originally Posted by darklord700

Wow, looks like Raj is looking for a job post election already.


====================
Raj Sherman:
To Alison and Danielle: a hypothetical. Neither of your parties win a majority, Alberta Liberals hold the balance of power, and both of you want my support.

Would you agree to name me minister of health in a coalition government?

I would LOVE to see a Wildrose minority with Raj as health minister now, just to see how the Wildrose supporters here enjoy it. Truthfully he is probably the most qualified guy to be health minister, regardless of political stripe.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by Slava

I would LOVE to see a Wildrose minority with Raj as health minister now, just to see how the Wildrose supporters here enjoy it. Truthfully he is probably the most qualified guy to be health minister, regardless of political stripe.

I don't deny that Raj would probably make a good health minister. But soliciting a job during an election campaige as the leader of a major party? I'm not too impressed.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Umm...in a way aren't they all solicting a job from the general public, i.e. MLA?

Also, Colleen Klein (Mrs. Ralph) apparently has purchased a Wildrose membership...So does this help, hurt, or have no effect?

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by darklord700

I don't trust this poll. PC is losing in Edmonton but gaining in Calgary? Doesn't make sense at all.

Did you read the accompanying article? I thought that it suggests a fairly plausible explanation: liberal support sliding to the PCs as a result of strategic, anti-WRP voting in Calgary, which has yet to happen in Edmonton (yet, anyway) where Liberal and NDP support remained stable.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Makarov

Did you read the accompanying article? I thought that it suggests a fairly plausible explanation: liberal support sliding to the PCs as a result of strategic, anti-WRP voting in Calgary, which has yet to happen in Edmonton (yet, anyway) where Liberal and NDP support remained stable.

Ah, the joys of first-past-the-post.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by Makarov

liberal support sliding to the PCs as a result of strategic, anti-WRP voting in Calgary, which has yet to happen in Edmonton (yet, anyway) where Liberal and NDP support remained stable.

It's plausible but I'm not sure if it is probable. Why would there be an anti-WRA sentiment now in Calgary? People I talked to were all long time PC voters who will turn WRA voters this time.

I know the sample size is small and my acquintances are all full time workers with decent salary so we don't get any government handouts. But I have yet to meet one Liberal supporters

[Slava]

Originally Posted by darklord700

I don't deny that Raj would probably make a good health minister. But soliciting a job during an election campaige as the leader of a major party? I'm not too impressed.

I'm pretty sure Liberal strategists everywhere are panicking because you're not impressed!

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Umm...in a way aren't they all solicting a job from the general public, i.e. MLA?

From the voters, yes. But Raj is soliciting job from his opposition, that's different.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by darklord700

It's plausible but I'm not sure if it is probable. Why would there be an anti-WRA sentiment now in Calgary? People I talked to were all long time PC voters who will turn WRA voters this time.

I know the sample size is small and my acquintances are all full time workers with decent salary so we don't get any government handouts. But I have yet to meet one Liberal supporters

Have you read this thread? Have you read most of my posts? If so, how can you even wonder why/if there is anti-Wildrose sentiment.

The comedy and arrogance of the right wing voter will never cease to amaze me. While it's true that liberals win rarely in Calgary that doesn't mean that there are none of us. In a number of ridings there are candidates getting 25-35% of the vote fairly regularly.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by Slava

I'm pretty sure Liberal strategists everywhere are panicking because you're not impressed!

A general going to battle telling the other general that if I lost, please spare my life and let me be your servant, OK.

I'm not a Liberal so I don't know if they are panicking or not when their leader is throwing in the towel with a week left.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by Slava

Have you read this thread? Have you read most of my posts? If so, how can you even wonder why/if there is anti-Wildrose sentiment.

I'm sure there anti WR or anti PC sentiment everywhere in AB. But please let me know in what election had this kind of strategic voting worked for the underdog parties?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by darklord700

A general going to battle telling the other general that if I lost, please spare my life and let me be your servant, OK.

I'm not a Liberal so I don't know if they are panicking or not when their leader is throwing in the towel with a week left.

That's funny. Raj is not an idiot. You might enjoy him running around saying he's going to premier come Tuesday morning, and the soundbites might be amusing, but he can see the world around him. Why not try to win as many seats as possible and try to gain influence with the probable heads of a minority?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by darklord700

I'm sure there anti WR or anti PC sentiment everywhere in AB. But please let me know in what election had this kind of strategic voting worked for the underdog parties?

If the Wildrose guy loses in my riding, I'll tell you on Tuesday.