April 23 2012: Alberta Provincial Election

[Azure]

I do love to see Redford being slapped in the face. Her lame attempt at a record budget in exchange for votes is being thrown to the ground.

I honestly have no problem with dipping into savings in a time of recession. I think that is what the fund is for. But oil is above $100/bbl, and Alberta is NOT in a recession anymore and those morons didn't even attempt to stop spending money like a bunch of drunken fools.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Jacks

I think that has already happened.


The other parties would have to keep them alive for the first 12-18 months and then we'd be into an early election.

Well I'll go ahead and suggest the other option: a PC/NDP/Lib coalition. That might be a case of strange bedfellows, but it might be more workable than the alternative.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by First Lady

Many of our candidates have been out door knocking for months.

To use my home area as example.

From Kyle Fawcett, March 30:



From Jeremy Nixon, April 1:

I guess I don't see that kind of stuff. We all don't, to be quite honest.

I'm just saying its surprising. Don't get me wrong, I absolutely love it that the PCs are losing. I'm just extremely surprised that the WRA seems to be literally running away with it.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well I'll go ahead and suggest the other option: a PC/NDP/Lib coalition. That might be a case of strange bedfellows, but it might be more workable than the alternative.

Its only more workable because you have a hard time believing the WRA could form and run an effective government. And that mostly has to do with your ridiculous bias.

I find it freakin' hilarious that you think the NDP and Liberals would get into bed with the PCs, and that Alberta would go for that. Take off the rose colored glasses for JUST a second.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well I'll go ahead and suggest the other option: a PC/NDP/Lib coalition. That might be a case of strange bedfellows, but it might be more workable than the alternative.

Political suicide. They wouldn't be able to keep it together for more than a year and 90% of Conservative voters would move the WR. If they do it I predict WR with 75+ seats in the following election.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Azure

I guess I don't see that kind of stuff. We all don't, to be quite honest.

I'm just saying its surprising. Don't get me wrong, I absolutely love it that the PCs are losing. I'm just extremely surprised that the WRA seems to be literally running away with it.

The only candidate that has visited my house is the WR guy.

And no, I don't have a lawn sign scaring the others off

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by Azure

I guess I don't see that kind of stuff. We all don't, to be quite honest.

I'm just saying its surprising. Don't get me wrong, I absolutely love it that the PCs are losing. I'm just extremely surprised that the WRA seems to be literally running away with it.

We've been spending a lot of time where it matters. On the ground, with Albertans. Many have heard Danielle, but 1000's more have met their local candidate.

As many have said to me; there is the ground war (candidates) and there is the air war (Leader and tour). Some think we had the ground war won before the writ was dropped.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Jacks

The only candidate that has visited my house is the WR guy.

And no, I don't have a lawn sign scaring the others off

They certainly do seem to have a more grassroots effort, while the PCs though they could spend their way back into power.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Azure

Its only more workable because you have a hard time believing the WRA could form and run an effective government. And that mostly has to do with your ridiculous bias.

I find it freakin' hilarious that you think the NDP and Liberals would get into bed with the PCs, and that Alberta would go for that. Take off the rose colored glasses for JUST a second.

Lol, well part of my reason for posting was to watch the posts after!

I am a little serious though; do you think the NDP or Liberals would prop up a Wildrose minority? Thats basically the other option.

[First Lady]

I'm wondering how many PC's will either not bother filing their nomination papers or will file them as an independent.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by First Lady

As many have said to me; there is the ground war (candidates) and there is the air war (Leader and tour). Some think we had the ground war won before the writ was dropped.

Hope you are knocking on wood

Originally Posted by Azure

They certainly do seem to have a more grassroots effort, while the PCs though they could spend their way back into power.

I've lived in this house for 3 elections and the PC candidate has NEVER door knocked or even dropped a pamphlet (that includes federal too). I think they have taken a lot of seats for granted. I once got a visit from the NDP candidate, she seemed so nice considering she had no chance

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Slava

I am a little serious though; do you think the NDP or Liberals would prop up a Wildrose minority? Thats basically the other option.

Assuming the WR get at least 35-40 seats I think they will have some convenient absences on confidence votes. Or the PC's will prop them up while rebuilding. See 2008-2011 federal for details on how they'll stay alive.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Assuming the WR get at least 35-40 seats I think they will have some convenient absences on confidence votes. Or the PC's will prop them up while rebuilding. See 2008-2011 federal for details on how they'll stay alive.

Ya who knows. I just wanted to post the possibility for a little laugh for myself. I should've waited for either zuluking or crazy joe to be here though. I have a feeling that would've been amusing.

I think it will end up closer than this in the end, and the seat distribution is another question. At the same time the PCs seem listless...although in my riding their candidate has a lot more signs on private property than the Wildrose.

[Azure]

I guess it depends on how much the PCs promise the NDP and the Liberals.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Slava

although in my riding their candidate has a lot more signs on private property than the Wildrose.

It's kinda funny that way, I am driving around all the time and some places are heavy in one party while others are heavy in another. It's almost like Calgary is broken into little pockets that lean one way or another. I was driving down 14St yesterday and the signs were pretty much even split PC and WR, there was one or two Lib signs and no NDP. I live in Calgary Fort, the PC's have signs on the main arteries but when you get into the side streets it is almost 100% WR.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Azure

I guess it depends on how much the PCs promise the NDP and the Liberals.

Maybe the Wildrose will double their Danidollars if they agree? Bidding war!

[albertGQ]

I'm on the fence between the PCs and WRA (leaning slightly towards PC though). I'll admit, this thread will be a big factor on who I end up voting for.

[IntenseFan]

Originally Posted by Slava

Are you going with a Wildrose minority as your prediction? I think that would be really interesting on a few fronts:

A) how many PCs cross the floor?
B) how does Smith build support and what policies does she sacrifice to do it?
C) who supports them? I can't see the NDP or Liberals there....and the whole campaign is against the PCs, so there could be some bad blood there.

Interesting to say the least...

Sorry for the delayed response to your question. Had to drive home and eat.

I do not yet predict a WRA minority, I just think that would be the ideal outcome in my mind for the Province. For various reasons I gave earlier in the thread.

My prediction at this time, until I see a few more polls anyway, is that the PCs are still the most likely victors. However, I no longer am as confident in that as I was 10 days ago. A couple more polls with WRA in the lead will result in a shift in my prediction.

In answer to you specific queries:

a) I am not sure I see very many floor crossings. Seems like the majority of PC insiders/MLAs who would have done so have either done so already, or already retired or otherwise left the PC party since the Stelmach and Redford leadership wins. That said, we have a westminster based system and people sometime cross the floor, in all directions.

b) Smith has to build support on a moderate move to the fiscal right (i.e. get the government gradually back to living within its means, try to get in some efficiencies, etc.) while abandoning to the back burner some of the more controversial fiscal (i.e. I'm thinking of you, energy dividends) and likely all of the social policies. If the PCs hold the balance of power I see them supporting a moderate shift to the fiscal right, at least while they lick their wounds and likely choose a new leader.

c) Although there will certainly be bad blood, a PC loss will, as I indicated, cause them to seriously re-think the body and soul of that party. They will have to dissect what went wrong, who went wrong, etc. Also, a PC loss would likely require a new leader for the party. So short term, the PCs would not fight a return to their moderately fiscal right wings ways to support the minority for awhile. The Libs and Dippers would never support the WRA of course, so no help there.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Azure

I honestly don't get why they're doing that well.

The PCs haven't done a great job by any means, but we're talking about a party that has held power for 30 years, and they're being run to the ground by a party that has never held power, and was formed only a few years ago. Not only that, but their policies are vague, even if I DO support them.

Weird.

Week one was a perfect storm for the Wildrose. I was actually expecting a poll like ThinkHQ to show a bigger lead. I expected closer to 50% for this week.

The Wildrose have been running a well organized campaign and they were on the ball when the PCs blundered through the week leading up and also the first week.

I think the true litmus test will be after week two is done. The spotlight is now shifting to the Wildrose as the front runner (which I think is about two weeks before where they would like this to happen). From here on out the Wildrose will be under the microscope, by the media and the voters. The overall conversation is no longer switching from are "we going to see the PCs era end" rather to "are the WildRose ready to form government" or "do you want the WildRose to form government".

There's are a lot of questions to be asked and three weeks is still a long time in regards to an election. My take on the first two days of this week is that Danielle Dollars, the media criticism and the whole Conscience Rights blog post haven't been going well for the WRP. Of course, that's only the discussion online, but the first two days aren't off to as rosy as a start as last week.

[IntenseFan]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

The Wildrose have been running a well organized campaign and they were on the ball when the PCs blundered through the week leading up and also the first week.

I think the true litmus test will be after week two is done. The spotlight is now shifting to the Wildrose as the front runner (which I think is about two weeks before where they would like this to happen). From here on out the Wildrose will be under the microscope, by the media and the voters. The overall conversation is no longer switching from are "we going to see the PCs era end" rather to "are the WildRose ready to form government" or "do you want the WildRose to form government".

Precisely.

In parallel to the 2006 Federal election, this will cause a sober second thought approach in some of the soft supporters for the WRA. The PCs will likely benefit from that and the next poll will be closer.

The only question in my mind is whether the WRA can maintain the smaller lead they are going to have after the next few polls. I hope they can withstand the scrutiny and form a minority, but there remains th chance that they crumble under the microscope and this ends up more like the 2004 Federal election (Fed-Cons had a bit of a lead in mid campaign polling, and lost it under policy scrutiny, negative adds and negative media coverage).