2012 Toronto Blue Jays Season Thread

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by dustyanddaflames

Going to sound weird, but I think that McGowan/Alvarez/Morrow's progression is far more important than Cecil's contributions. I have never really thought of Cecil as more than a really good 4th starter, where as McGowan/Morrow could easily slot into that #2/3 starter postion, if they reach their ceilings/regain form. I guess I just don't find Cecil's success that imperitive to the club's success - and that is taking nothing away from Cecil. He had a really good season, and until his drop in velocity, appeared to be on track to becoming a good #3.

I feel that kids like Hutchison, Jenkins, Drabek could all have solid seasons, and really help off set the loss of Cecil in a rotation - similar to what Alvarez did last year. The loss of Morrow or McGowan (if he regains his form), would be crippling to the franchise's hopes of a playoff birth.

EDIT - all personal opinion of course

I was bullish on Cecil when he came into the league - partly because he was a lefty coming into a all-righty rotation (Doc, AJ, Marcum, McGowan, Litsch) and it was needed balance. But he's never looked like a dominant starter, and never had the stats to back it up. Velocity, movement, and location are all average - and average doesn't cut it in the ALE.

I wonder if he's a trade candidate or a bullpen option, I don't think we could send him to the minors.
I hope that ends up being a decision that Ant has to make!

[The Big Chill]

The biggest worry for me is Alvarez regressing/sophomore slump. I find it a little bit hard to imagine that he is ready to be a dependable guy in our rotation just yet. We will really need a couple of guys to pitch well beyond expectation to have a shot at a wildcard spot this season. It will start with Morrow solidifying that #2 spot and being able to keep his pitch-count down so he can go longer then 5 innings.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by dustyanddaflames

Going to sound weird, but I think that McGowan/Alvarez/Morrow's progression is far more important than Cecil's contributions. I have never really thought of Cecil as more than a really good 4th starter, where as McGowan/Morrow could easily slot into that #2/3 starter postion, if they reach their ceilings/regain form. I guess I just don't find Cecil's success that imperitive to the club's success - and that is taking nothing away from Cecil. He had a really good season, and until his drop in velocity, appeared to be on track to becoming a good #3.

I feel that kids like Hutchison, Jenkins, Drabek could all have solid seasons, and really help off set the loss of Cecil in a rotation - similar to what Alvarez did last year. The loss of Morrow or McGowan (if he regains his form), would be crippling to the franchise's hopes of a playoff birth.

EDIT - all personal opinion of course

I 100% agree that for both the short term and long term, these guys need to progress to where they're capable.

It's really a make or break year for Morrow in terms of being front end starter. He needs to win more than 11 games and bring more consistency for this team to take the next step.

McGowan has a strict 150 inning limit so it is hard to expect too much out of him. Personally, I'd be thrilled with 10 wins.

The reason I singled out Cecil is because he's only 2 years removed from a 15 win season and physically looks to have made some strides. If he could regain any sort of form I think it would be hugely beneficial and not having to throw one of the prominent young arms like Hutchinson/McGuire/Jenkins into the fire would be a good thing IMO.

[flames_1987]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

I 100% agree that for both the short term and long term, these guys need to progress to where they're capable.

It's really a make or break year for Morrow in terms of being front end starter. He needs to win more than 11 games and bring more consistency for this team to take the next step.

McGowan has a strict 150 inning limit so it is hard to expect too much out of him. Personally, I'd be thrilled with 10 wins.

The reason I singled out Cecil is because he's only 2 years removed from a 15 win season and physically looks to have made some strides. If he could regain any sort of form I think it would be hugely beneficial and not having to throw one of the prominent young arms like Hutchinson/McGuire/Jenkins into the fire would be a good thing IMO.

Wins should never be used as an accurate way to rate pitchers. A stat that means very little and is very outdated.

Morrow is a strong pitcher. This is not a make or break year for him by any means, especially after the extension he just signed. He's a very strong pitcher, statistics show that.

Biggest concern about Cecil is his velocity. Not good news from yesterday and him topping out at 88 mph

[Otsy]

Originally Posted by flames_1987

Wins should never be used as an accurate way to rate pitchers. A stat that means very little and is very outdated.

Morrow is a strong pitcher. This is not a make or break year for him by any means, especially after the extension he just signed. He's a very strong pitcher, statistics show that.

Biggest concern about Cecil is his velocity. Not good news from yesterday and him topping out at 88 mph

Pineda didn't even his 90 in his first outing this year. 2nd or 3rd outing and velocity still down then it's more time to worry.

[flames_1987]

Originally Posted by Otsy

Pineda didn't even his 90 in his first outing this year. 2nd or 3rd outing and velocity still down then it's more time to worry.

Agreed. Shouldn't put to much stock into just one outing, will be very interesting to see how he adjusts to being so much lighter on the mound now with the weight he's dropped. Hopefully that is not a long adjustment period

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by flames_1987

Wins should never be used as an accurate way to rate pitchers. A stat that means very little and is very outdated.

Morrow is a strong pitcher. This is not a make or break year for him by any means, especially after the extension he just signed. He's a very strong pitcher, statistics show that.

Biggest concern about Cecil is his velocity. Not good news from yesterday and him topping out at 88 mph

Outdated or not Cecil has to be a lot better.

It's make or break for Morrow in the sense that is he a 3/4 on a competitive team or can he be a really good 2? I think we all see the potential in him to be dominant on a consistent basis and we frankly have not seen it yet. It would put the Jays in a hell of a position if he took that step and they didn't have to look to add that front end starter via trade at the deadline/next offseason.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

The Toronto Blue Jays have not given up their pursuit of Chicago White Sox right-hander Gavin Floyd, major-league sources told FOXSports.com.

The Blue Jays are interested in upgrading their starting rotation before Opening Day. Toronto general manager Alex Anthopoulos made a very public scouting appearance at Joe Blanton’s start for the Philadelphia Phillies over the weekend.

http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/m...floyd/10291117

I don't know anything about Floyd.........anyone have an opinion on the guy?

[ricoFlame]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/m...floyd/10291117

I don't know anything about Floyd.........anyone have an opinion on the guy?

He's big, he's a 200 inning guy. He had one monster year a few years ago (when I had him in the CP baseball pool!) and since has hovered around .500...pretty much a 12 win guy...likely better with a steady lineup behind him.

I like him, he has some decent tools.

[dustyanddaflames]

I have always like Floyd, but he reminds me a lot of Morrow, in that he was supposed to take over the "ace" status from Buehrle when his time was done, but just hasn't been able to put together back to back good seasons.

If the price was right, I'd love it, as I think Floyd slots into the 2/3 spot with Morrow, and pushes McGowan/Alvarez/Cecil into their appropriate positons... I think the Jays do need a big inning eater, who can get you 10-13 wins, because it lessens the demands from the three previously mentioned.

[flames_1987]

It's still very early into camp but with the velocity Mcgowan is throwing the ball and how good Alvarez has looked, I think both of them are locks to be in the rotation. AA watched Cecil through his bullpen session and then we had the whole thing with scouting Blanton. AA really likes this team and I think he believes they could very well contend this season, I think he's doing everything in his power to add another starter. Right now Cecil would be the odd man out without question.

[whosurnabby]

If the price was right, I'd love it, as I think Floyd slots into the 2/3 spot with Morrow, and pushes McGowan/Alvarez/Cecil into their appropriate positons... I think the Jays do need a big inning eater, who can get you 10-13 wins, because it lessens the demands from the three previously mentioned.

This. Anything that involves one of our top prospects (D'Arnaud, Gose, Marisnick, Snydergaard, Nicolino, and Deck McGuire) and its a big, fat, NO. Rest assured, if you've heard it from somewhere else besides the silent assassin GM, Alex Anthopolous, then it's 99.9% BS (ie: Yu Darvish) .

A question to my fellow Blue Jays lifelongers...to TRADE or NOT TO TRADE JP. Arencibia? Don't get me wrong, Travis D'Arnaud is going to be a BETTER catcher than JPA, but I honestly think that JPA might be that kind of player that "glues" the team together as a whole. The guy is awesome as a human being (met the guy when the Jays where touring Western Canada 2 years ago), to the community, and I could clearly tell that his teammates LOVES him. I'm just worried that trading this guy might shake up the locker room "chemistry" negatively.

On a side note, I haven't been this excited about Blue Jays baseball since Roy Halladay's 1st Cy Young and V-Dub's (Vernon Wells) career year -and horrible new contract- in 2003 that I've actually made the decision to have our summer vacation in Toronto to watch them beat Vdub's new ballclub on Canada Day this year! Let's Go Blue Jays!!!

[JayP]

Originally Posted by whosurnabby

This. Anything that involves one of our top prospects (D'Arnaud, Gose, Marisnick, Snydergaard, Nicolino, and Deck McGuire) and its a big, fat, NO. Rest assured, if you've heard it from somewhere else besides the silent assassin GM, Alex Anthopolous, then it's 99.9% BS (ie: Yu Darvish).

Then it's a big fat no from the White Sox too. Teams don't give up proven, cost-controlled, inning eating starting pitchers without getting quality prospects in return.

If any of the Jays best pitching prospects turned into Gavin Floyd they would be happy with it. I don't know if this is the year to go for a guy like Floyd though. Even with him they're at best a bubble wild card team. Maybe if the Jays feel they can sell super high on one of their better prospects (a la Nester Molina), but from everything I've read their best guys have the raw talent to back up their numbers.

A question to my fellow Blue Jays lifelongers...to TRADE or NOT TO TRADE JP. Arencibia? Don't get me wrong, Travis D'Arnaud is going to be a BETTER catcher than JPA, but I honestly think that JPA might be that kind of player that "glues" the team together as a whole. The guy is awesome as a human being (met the guy when the Jays where touring Western Canada 2 years ago), to the community, and I could clearly tell that his teammates LOVES him. I'm just worried that trading this guy might shake up the locker room "chemistry" negatively.

I'll take the better catcher over the better guy any day. If the Jays can't perform because they traded away an inferior player then that doesn't say much for the rest of the team. By all accounts D'Arnaud is a high character guy himself anyways.

[dustyanddaflames]

I think JPA will be the catcher for the Jays this year, and possibly next - allowing D'Arnaud to properly develop within the minors. Even then, if Arencibia continues to show growth behind the plate, and able to increase his batting average - there is really nothing stopping the Blue Jays from using D'Arnaud as trade bait.

I don't feel there is no real rush to move JPA, as he has done a real good job in learning to ropes of handling a major league staff, and has been able to do so while producing at the plate. They Jays are in a really good spot in a lot of positions, where they have some really good players coming up through the ranks - challenging for positions, and the losers still holding really good trade value (JPA/D'Arnaud, Thames/Snider, Hechevarria/Escobar, Gose/Rasmus, SP)...

[JayP]

Originally Posted by dustyanddaflames

I think JPA will be the catcher for the Jays this year, and possibly next - allowing D'Arnaud to properly develop within the minors. Even then, if Arencibia continues to show growth behind the plate, and able to increase his batting average - there is really nothing stopping the Blue Jays from using D'Arnaud as trade bait.

I don't feel there is no real rush to move JPA, as he has done a real good job in learning to ropes of handling a major league staff, and has been able to do so while producing at the plate. They Jays are in a really good spot in a lot of positions, where they have some really good players coming up through the ranks - challenging for positions, and the losers still holding really good trade value (JPA/D'Arnaud, Thames/Snider, Hechevarria/Escobar, Gose/Rasmus, SP)...

The big issue is that D'Arnaud is considered plus defensively while JPA has never been regarded as anything more than average (at best) through-out his pro career. I'd expect JPA to continue to improve offensively, but his overall skill set is limited compared to D'Arnaud.

It is nice having a back-up plan in case either guy's progression halts though.

[ricoFlame]

Originally Posted by dustyanddaflames

I don't feel there is no real rush to move JPA, as he has done a real good job in learning to ropes of handling a major league staff, and has been able to do so while producing at the plate. They Jays are in a really good spot in a lot of positions, where they have some really good players coming up through the ranks - challenging for positions, and the losers still holding really good trade value (JPA/D'Arnaud, Thames/Snider, Hechevarria/Escobar, Gose/Rasmus, SP)...

No rush for sure...but a .282 OBP is brutal. It's nice he has power, but if he remains a constant easy-out, the decision concerning who to keep becomes a lot easier. He'll always have teams who want him because of his power capabilities.

Don't get me wrong, I really like JPA and what he brings to the team...but in the discussion over who has a better shot long term...numbers don't lie...often.

[dustyanddaflames]

I agree - and not saying that I'd keep JPA over D'Arnaud... Just the Jays will have options.

[The Big Chill]

Sounds like Cecil had a good outing. Anyone know if he got his velocity up a little bit today?

[VERVE]

Originally Posted by The Big Chill

Sounds like Cecil had a good outing. Anyone know if he got his velocity up a little bit today?

Not sure about velocity but he allowed one hit in three shutout innings against Minnesota, giving up two walks and striking out two. Cecil has not given up any runs in three appearances this spring (six innings in total).

[flames_1987]

No talk on Cecil velocity yet. The two walks are a little troubling but that's just me nitpicking. We will see how he responds as the competition gets stronger as camp moves on.

Sad to see Drabek's start this weekend get rained out, but his first inning seemed to be strong.