2011/12 Toronto Blue Jays Off-Season

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Gozer

I agree with GS that Cecil has been disappointing relative to my expectations, and that is a very valid method of evaluation.
It is my understanding that Cecil's problem was with physical fitness, he lost his fastball and was sent down because he wasn't putting the work in at the gym. That bodes well in the sense that I expect that could be improved and, if it is, could put him back on track as a MLB contributor. I also think it is indicative of a guy that will be out of the organization in the near future - a storyline to watch this season.

I also agree with GS and Parallex with perspective on the bullpen: it's similar to last year's and very difficult to project beyond that.

I disagree with most other things GS has said though. Throw over two hundred million at a guy to become a bubble team? Morrow is a question mark? You wouldn't be saying that if the Jays had traded for these guys:


Reyes and the other slug they had the previous year taking up space were placeholders for the young pitchers we have coming up, which are numerous. Hutchinson and Drabek are legitimate candidates for the rotation this year; I think dismissing Drabek as a prospect because of his struggles last season is rather fickle. Careers aren't anywhere near as linear as we seem to believe.

Agree with everything here except the bubble team part. I would certainly throw 200 million to become a bubble team for a year or two and then build around that piece to become a contender.

I'm just afraid that at this current state, they'll never even get to being a bubble team.

[zukes]

Saying that because Drabek has not met expectations and Cecil took a stp back (very minor, if at all as I have pointed out) does not mean that the Jays have regressed, just those players.

Just because two guys may or may not be where they were projected to be does not mean that the team regressed. Look at the team as a whole, they have progressed.

By your example, if some how the Jays had signed Pujols, Fielder, Jose Reyes, CJ Wilson and Mark Buehrle it would be regression because Lind, Encarnacion, Escobar, Romero and Morrow may be in lower slots and not where they were projected to be????

[zukes]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Agree with everything here except the bubble team part. I would certainly throw 200 million to become a bubble team for a year or two and then build around that piece to become a contender.

I'm just afraid that at this current state, they'll never even get to being a bubble team.

You would throw $200 million AND THEN build around that? The Jays ARE NOT the Yankees, they don't have $200 million to throw around AND build from there. Not unless they start getting early 90's attendance again.

Wow...just wow!

[flambers]

Originally Posted by zukes

Saying that because Drabek has not met expectations and Cecil took a stp back (very minor, if at all as I have pointed out) does not mean that the Jays have regressed, just those players.

???

I remember another Pitcher who was with the Jays had similiar issues. He had to be sent to AA to work on his control. His name is Roy Halladay.

Not to say these guys are anything alike, but I agree with you its not ab-normal for a young player to have struggles especially pitchers.

Hopefully Drabek can turn the corner this season.

I have also read Cecil has got into decent shape.... which was pointed out in an earlier post. That his conditioning (or lack of) was a huge issue.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by zukes

You would throw $200 million AND THEN build around that? The Jays ARE NOT the Yankees, they don't have $200 million to throw around AND build from there. Not unless they start getting early 90's attendance again.

Wow...just wow!

Agreed, Fielder to me is a DH in the future. $200m on a DH is crazy.

I would rather see the Jays spend nothing on Free Agents and wait..... then spend some money on a Starter.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by flambers

Agreed, Fielder to me is a DH in the future. $200m on a DH is crazy.

I would rather see the Jays spend nothing on Free Agents and wait..... then spend some money on a Starter.

What is future? I don't think Fielder is a DH for another 6-7 years. He's only 27. Unless you think 30 year olds suddenly can't play 1B.

It's First base!

We'll see how long he plays 1B in Detroit. Cabrera is going back to 3rd.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

What is future? I don't think Fielder is a DH for another 6-7 years. He's only 27. Unless you think 30 year olds suddenly can't play 1B.

It's First base!

We'll see how long he plays 1B in Detroit. Cabrera is going back to 3rd.

In my opinion Fielder is a great hitter (Star Calibre) but his defensive abilities are below average. Which will get worse as he gets older.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by zukes

You would throw $200 million AND THEN build around that?

Meh, I'd do that on the right player. Fielder isn't that player but I wouldn't dismiss it off-hand. I mean if you could get a 27 year old Ted Williams or Ty Cobb for 200M over 8 or 9 years you wouldn't do it?

Originally Posted by zukes

The Jays ARE NOT the Yankees, they don't have $200 million to throw around AND build from there. Not unless they start getting early 90's attendance again.

Of course they do, they just won't. Rogers is wealthier then the Steinbrenners it's not like they don't have the money... I mean it's a perfectly valid business decision to tie investment to revenue so long as their aware of the old agage that you have to spend money to make money. The 90's attendance argument is a bit of a chicken and egg argument isnn't it... I mean the Blue Jays had the highest payroll in all of MLB then so was the attendance revenue a result of them spending to have a winner or was it the winning that got them the revenue to spend?

[flames_1987]

Top 100 Major League Prospects came out last night. System in 20 Words or Less: Some elite position players and a cadre of young high-ceiling pitchers make Toronto the envy of every team in baseball.


If people want to talk about ownership and will they or won't they commit to a big named free agent if the right one is available, which I think is fair, you do have to put stock into how the Jays ownership has spent more money then any other team in baseball these last few years in the draft, internationally and developing young talent.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

What is future? I don't think Fielder is a DH for another 6-7 years. He's only 27. Unless you think 30 year olds suddenly can't play 1B.

It's First base!

We'll see how long he plays 1B in Detroit. Cabrera is going back to 3rd.

Guys who weigh 280 lbs can't play 1B is the big issue. He's already one of the worst first basemen in the league by any defensive metric and the eye test. And he's got nowhere to go, but down. Detroit could keep him at first base, but it's only going to hurt them in the long run so it's not much of an argument in Prince's favor.

And the Tigers might want Cabrera to play third, but that's just going to be a disaster. He's already a below average 1B and they want him to cover more range and have to make the throw too? My prediction - the Tigers move Cabrera back to 1B by the all-star break and move Prince to DH.

[flames_1987]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Meh, I'd do that on the right player. Fielder isn't that player but I wouldn't dismiss it off-hand. I mean if you could get a 27 year old Ted Williams or Ty Cobb for 200M over 8 or 9 years you wouldn't do it?



Of course they do, they just won't. Rogers is wealthier then the Steinbrenners it's not like they don't have the money... I mean it's a perfectly valid business decision to tie investment to revenue so long as their aware of the old agage that you have to spend money to make money. The 90's attendance argument is a bit of a chicken and egg argument isnn't it... I mean the Blue Jays had the highest payroll in all of MLB then so was the attendance revenue a result of them spending to have a winner or was it the winning that got them the revenue to spend?

Blue Jays Attendance figures

• 1985: 5th in attendance; 18th in payroll.
• 1986: 5th in attendance; 10th in payroll.
• 1987: 4th in attendance; 17th in payroll.
• 1988: 6th in attendance; 6th in payroll.
• 1989: 1st in attendance; 7th in payroll.
• 1990: 1st in attendance; 13th in payroll.
• 1991: 1st in attendance; 19th in payroll.
• 1992: 1st in attendance; 1st in payroll.
• 1993: 2nd in attendance; 1st in payroll.

The Jays spent those 3 years #1 in attendance and then spent accordingly.

"The Texas Rangers and how they’ve come to afford high priced talent. In 2008, the Rangers ranked 21st in payroll and 25th in attendance. In 2009, the team moved ahead into 19th in payroll and 18th in attendance. Then, in 2010, the team went all the way to the World Series on a payroll that ranked 28th in baseball, while drawing the 14th most amount of fans to its games. In 2011, the team returned to the World Series on a payroll that last year ranked 13th in the league, while drawing the 10th most amount of fans to its games"

It's so not as simple as saying Rogers has money to spend, why don't they just spend it on the Jays. It's a horrible business model and has no chance at succeeding that way.

If you want to be successful in professional sports, especially Major League Baseball, it has to be through the draft and prospects. There is a time and a place for Free Agency and adding that extra piece, but I don't believe the Jays are in the place where they need that final push or that any player has been available that was can't miss and was worth investing 200 million in, along with the entire future of your ball team moving forward. The Jays have not lost any core players because of the teams lack of spending, they've continued to put money into the draft, AA clearly saw the economics of MLB changing after this new CBA and ownership went right along investing money into the Jays drafting and prospect ranks.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by flames_1987

facts and figures

Interesting. Do you have the figures for 94-99? Or if you're getting those from a website a link so I can look them up myself?

[flames_1987]

http://www.drunkjaysfans.com/2012/01...unkJaysFans%29

Mat Latos was moved to Cincinnati from San Diego for the players MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo-- hardly the be-all, end-all, but to use as a handy example-- ranked as the second-best first base prospect in baseball, the sixth-best catching prospect, and further pieces still.

If the Padres viewed Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal similarly, realistically the Jays would have needed a Lawrie-plus-d'Arnaud- or Arencibia-fronted package to top it-- a price that, given Lawrie's popularity and maple-dick-explodingly awesome debut, can't be viewed as anything but too steep. Yet many fans, often with the most smug, assholishness they can muster, piss and moan about deals that weren't done this winter, insisting that Anthopoulos did something unforgivable by not forcing anything to happen, by not conjuring up a fantasy deal that would have added a huge piece to the Major League roster without giving one up in return, by not offering false hope for 2012 at the expense of 2013 and beyond.

Think about it: much like the later years under Ricciardi, the club is good-- it's close to contention-- but, as constructed, it can't not fall short, especially given it's residence in the toughest division in baseball. However, this time there's no magical short window that must be hoped and aimed for. This time we're not waiting on the dramatic false hope of a free agent coup, or one high-end prospect or two progressing quickly and without setback. In 2012, we're talking about maybe the best farm system in the Majors, with wave after wave of multiple prospects due to come over the next several years, six more early-round picks for 2012, and at least six years of Major League team control for every single one of them who has yet to hit Toronto-- not to mention team-friendly contracts coming literally out the ass. [OK, maybe not literally... unless!]

[flames_1987]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Interesting. Do you have the figures for 94-99? Or if you're getting those from a website a link so I can look them up myself?

Sorry do not just got these ones from DJF's. Trying to find a way to find payroll history online but seems incredibly tough.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by flames_1987

http://www.drunkjaysfans.com/2012/01...unkJaysFans%29

Counter-point.

http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseba...costly#article

Looking at the comments in both the column you posted and the column I posted.. people are clearly on both sides with different philosophies.

[flames_1987]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Agree with everything here except the bubble team part. I would certainly throw 200 million to become a bubble team for a year or two and then build around that piece to become a contender.

I'm just afraid that at this current state, they'll never even get to being a bubble team.

What pace are you talking about? At this pace the Jays, on AA's 3rd year as the GM are on quite a freaking torrid pace when you also take into account the Jays traded their best player in Roy Halladay in AA's first year.

In 3 years the Jays have gone from the 28th to #1-#3 farm system in the entire Majors. They dumped Vernon Well's contract, traded for Brett Lawrie, signed and have locked down players on incredibly team friendly contracts and team options. They've been more competitive then anyone thought they would, they loose no important pieces of their team from last year and only add upgrades in certain areas. AA remains being complimented by the entire baseball world on nearly every trade he makes and people continue to rave about how the Jays organization is setting itself up to be going forward. They once again have another draft with high picks coming and they don't have ONE bad contract or long term commitment that doesn't give this team incredible flexibility.


It's a total sign of ignorance to the farm system, to knowing anything about the prospects or wanting too, not seeing direct results right away and therefor throwing the "bust" label on every young player on the Jays current 40 man roster.

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by flames_1987

It's a total lack of ignorance...

Take that GirlySports!

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Gozer

Take that GirlySports!

[flames_1987]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Counter-point.

http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseba...costly#article

Looking at the comments in both the column you posted and the column I posted.. people are clearly on both sides with different philosophies.

The comments section....yes the comments section. Such detailed, thought out thinking. Of course there are people who want to win now, who wants to see the Jays win and throw money after every big free agent name out there. There will always be fans like that. Comment sections, YouTube, TSN are the last place to go for any type of intelligent, dialogue.

That article is horribly written, and as Drunk Jays Fans already have done, it can be dissected so easily and by that rationale of thinking. The entire logic is based on "well it's not your money so why should you be upset"

[flames_1987]

Originally Posted by Gozer

Take that GirlySports!