2011/12 Toronto Blue Jays Off-Season

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

The direction might still be ok but they're a last place team in 2012. Yes I will get flamed but they're finishing last this year in AL East.

Probably 4th I can't see the Orioles out winning the BJ's.

[ricoFlame]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

The direction might still be ok but they're a last place team in 2012. Yes I will get flamed but they're finishing last this year in AL East.

Have the Orioles done something I'm not aware of to improve that much?

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by ricoFlame

Have the Orioles done something I'm not aware of to improve that much?

They now have (switched back to) the best logo in baseball, and that has to count for something right.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

They may be going still going in the right direction but when is that? They are nowhere MUCH stronger right now then this time last season.

They don't have a LF. They don't have a 2B. 3B is much better but we only saw Lawrie for half a season.

15 game winner Cecil is nowhere. Snider can't prove he can hit yet, he may never be able to hit. The CF we traded for might be a lazy pantload. Morrow and Drabek took a step back, Drabek might not be MLB caliber at all. Is the bullpen really improved? I nearly spilled coffee, best bullpen in the majors? Cordero and Oliver!? Are Cordero, Oliver and Santos really that much better than Francisco, Dotel and Rzepcinsky? Dotel and Rzepcinsky were awesome in the playoffs.

Who's the DH? Are we just going to keep treating it like a fill-in position and rotate useless players like Encarnacion there? Vizquel at SS and Escobar to DH from time to time, how bout that?

Go position by position and tell me how this team is better? The team has one quality starter, one bat in RF and a bunch of question marks.

The direction might still be ok but they're a last place team in 2012. Yes I will get flamed but they're finishing last this year in AL East.
I'm not saying break the bank but a couple of free agents to supplement the youth would have been nice. Getting free agents doesn't mean win now, someone like Fielder or Darvish (for example) are still in their 20s and the target could still be 2013 or 2014. Or even more middle-ranged free agents, especially pitchers like Bedard, Harang etc... A pitching staff with Romero and 4 kids can't be good for a long 162 game season.

.

In my opinion there is no chance that the Jays are a last placed team in the AL East.....

Jays have improved over the previous season where they finished with a record of 81-81

Orioles had a record of 69 - 93... have no clue how they have improved now to become a .500 team or better.


Jays are improved in the following area's

1) Obtained a Closer.
2) Relief Pitching staff was a huge weakness last season.... especially after the Ramus trade. Jays have made a huge upgrade in this area

- brought in Frasor, brought in Olivier, Santos, Cordero (speculated) etc...

- Other Key is Jays removed the weak links from the RP Staff.

- There are lots of youth in the Minors who can be recalled this season.


3) LF is not a weakness, Jays will most likely use a rotation one player versus righties and another against lefties....

Battle between Snider / Thames / Davies / Francisco etc

4) Catching will be improved. Basically due to JP is more experienced handling the pitchers. Jays also brought in a really good defensive catcher.

5) DH - agreed, ideally the Jays need to acquire a Bat. This season its most likely a rotation of players. E5, Thames, Francisco etc.....


As for the Starters... not sure Drabek will make the team.

Rotation is most likely as follows;

Romero
Morrow
Alvarez
McGowan

5th Spot is a battle with Litsch / Cecil / Drabek etc.....

As for 2nd, full season with Kelly Johnson is not a weakness.


Edit;

Would guess the Jays won't spend huge dollars on Free Agents until they feel they can push for a wild card spot. They need more time,

On the plus side they have a top end Farm System..... this gives them tonnes of options.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by ricoFlame

Have the Orioles done something I'm not aware of to improve that much?

Not really. 69 wins last year they might get to 75. But I think the Jays will only be 75 wins too.

O's have Wieters who I love and a really young pitching staff as well.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by flambers

In my opinion there is no chance that the Jays are a last placed team in the AL East.....

Jays have improved over the previous season where they finished with a record of 81-81

Orioles had a record of 69 - 93... have no clue how they have improved now to become a .500 team or better.


Jays are improved in the following area's

1) Obtained a Closer.
2) Relief Pitching staff was a huge weakness last season.... especially after the Ramus trade. Jays have made a huge upgrade in this area

- brought in Frasor, brought in Olivier, Santos, Cordero (speculated) etc...

- Other Key is Jays removed the weak links from the RP Staff.

- There are lots of youth in the Minors who can be recalled this season.


3) LF is not a weakness, Jays will most likely use a rotation one player versus righties and another against lefties....

Battle between Snider / Thames / Davies / Francisco etc

4) Catching will be improved. Basically due to JP is more experienced handling the pitchers. Jays also brought in a really good defensive catcher.

5) DH - agreed, ideally the Jays need to acquire a Bat. This season its most likely a rotation of players. E5, Thames, Francisco etc.....


As for the Starters... not sure Drabek will make the team.

Rotation is most likely as follows;

Romero
Morrow
Alvarez
McGowan

5th Spot is a battle with Litsch / Cecil / Drabek etc.....

As for 2nd, full season with Kelly Johnson is not a weakness.


Edit;

Would guess the Jays won't spend huge dollars on Free Agents until they feel they can push for a wild card spot. They need more time,

On the plus side they have a top end Farm System..... this gives them tonnes of options.

1. Agreed I like Santos too and he's got the job from Day 1, hope he doesn't flame out.

2. Oliver and Cordero are much worse than Dotel and Rzepcinsky. Agreed that it's better than after the Rasmus trade but then again, anything is.

3. Battle between Snider / Thames / Davies / Francisco. Four guys in LF? That's awful. If Snider doesn't pan out this year, that's a huge weakness.

4. Catcher is fine. But he has to get the average closer to .250 then .200.

5. We agree DH is awful.

6. Rotation
Romero
Morrow
Alvarez
McGowan

5th Spot is a battle with Litsch / Cecil / Drabek etc.....

That's pretty bad. Not saying break the bank (Yu was a dream more than anything) but a #2 from Free Agency would have been nice to steady the rotation. Morrow had an awful season, not a #2. Alvarez has wicked talent but he's not a #3. McGowan, who knows what he is. There's not much after that. All prospects.

7. Kelly Johnson is awful. Would have been better keeping Aaron Hill.

8. Would guess the Jays won't spend huge dollars on Free Agents until they feel they can push for a wild card spot. They need more time.

Agreed in theory but there aren't always FAs to be had. There was one this year, Fielder.

Which brings me to my last point that we haven't mentioned. 1B

I'm not too sure about Lind. He really regressed last year, not sure if he can rebound. If he's turns out to be a failure, the Jays have lost the chance to get the star 1B and another one won't come around.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

2. Oliver and Cordero are much worse than Dotel and Rzepcinsky. Agreed that it's better than after the Rasmus trade but then again, anything is.

3. Battle between Snider / Thames / Davies / Francisco. Four guys in LF? That's awful. If Snider doesn't pan out this year, that's a huge weakness.

4. Catcher is fine. But he has to get the average closer to .250 then .200.

5. We agree DH is awful.

6. Rotation
Romero
Morrow
Alvarez
McGowan

5th Spot is a battle with Litsch / Cecil / Drabek etc.....

That's pretty bad. Not saying break the bank (Yu was a dream more than anything) but a #2 from Free Agency would have been nice to steady the rotation. Morrow had an awful season, not a #2. Alvarez has wicked talent but he's not a #3. McGowan, who knows what he is. There's not much after that. All prospects.

7. Kelly Johnson is awful. Would have been better keeping Aaron Hill.

8. Would guess the Jays won't spend huge dollars on Free Agents until they feel they can push for a wild card spot. They need more time.

Agreed in theory but there aren't always FAs to be had. There was one this year, Fielder.

Which brings me to my last point that was haven't mentioned. 1B

I'm not too sure about Lind. He really regressed last year, not sure if he can rebound. If he's turns out to be a failure, the Jays have lost the chance to get the star 1B and another one won't come around.

As for LF, Jays are not going to carry all 4. Would bet either Thames or Snider will be sent to AAA. Snider can be sent down without Waivers for 1 more season....

As for RP, only time will tell but Frasor, Oliver, Cordero and Santos... plus which ever rookie may make the team is a big upgrade over the RP staff that finished the season with the Jays.

As for 1st Base, Lind is fine. Not a huge Lind fan but he fills in fine for now....

Disagree with Kelly Johnson at very least he is the same as Aaron Hill.

Personally not a fan of Fielder, not a player I would want on a 9 year contract. He is a good hitter but not a great 1st Baseman.


As for the Starting Rotation, Jays understand they need another top end starter. Challenge is can they find one.... Would guess this is an area to watch when the trade dead-line happens in July.

[flames_1987]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Not really. 69 wins last year they might get to 75. But I think the Jays will only be 75 wins too.

O's have Wieters who I love and a really young pitching staff as well.

I'm sorry the Jays can't contend because they have a young pitching staff, but the Orioles will benefit from it?

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by flambers

Jays are improved in the following area's

1) Obtained a Closer.
2) Relief Pitching staff was a huge weakness last season.... especially after the Ramus trade. Jays have made a huge upgrade in this area

Not from the start of last year they haven't. Sure they butchered the Pen in order to get Rasmus but the extent to which the current incoming crop is better then the incoming crop post-offseason last year is marginal if at all.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by flames_1987

I'm sorry the Jays can't contend because they have a young pitching staff, but the Orioles will benefit from it?

Sure. Contend and benefit are two different things. Young pitching can get a team from 69 to 75, it can't improve an already 81 win team.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Not from the start of last year they haven't. Sure they butchered the Pen in order to get Rasmus but the extent to which the current incoming crop is better then the incoming crop post-offseason last year is marginal if at all.

Sure they have, only Dotel and Rysz are gone who I would mark down as quality RPs.

Others like Rauch or Camp or Frank Francisco won't be missed.

Santos is an upgrade over last season's closer

Frasor is back

Oliver and Cordero are close to Dotel and Rysz or slighty under (who knows).

Janssen is back, had a great season


Top 5 RPs will be Santos, Cordero, Frasor, Oliver and Janssen.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Sure. Contend and benefit are two different things. Young pitching can get a team from 69 to 75, it can't improve an already 81 win team.

Why are the Jays Starters considered young?

Romero, Morrow and Litsch have pitched quite a few innings.

Alvarez is a rookie for sure but he has a great arm. Would bet he will be the 3rd Starter.

Starters like Cecil, Drabek, McGowan etc.... are risk type of pitchers. Who knows what they will have.


Jays are not contending, neither are the Orioles.

When you compare the Teams and Farm systems. Jays are allot better.

[flames_1987]

Oliver is one of the best LP relief pitchers in the entire Majors. Frasor, Jannsen, Santos, Litsch, Corderro, Villueneva. That is clearly a better bullpen then last year and as it's been discussed over the last few weeks by many people in the game, has the chance to be one of the best in the Majors. If not, the Jays have a premium of much needed and overvalued bullpen arms at the trade deadline.

If Travis Snider, 22 year old Travis Snider, doesn't pan out then yes it would be a tough position and one the Jays have to re-evaluate. He is still far to young, and has far to many tools and put up elite numbers in AAA, to give up on. Just like with any young team, there are those variables you can simply not control. That's why you keep drafting strong year after year and stockpiling incredible young talent, so when one or two players don't pan out, you have a farm system loaded with talent to take over. The Jays decided the last two years to invest more money then 95% of the rest of the Major Leagues into the draft and international prospects. They did a great job of stockpiling draft picks and using the old CBA rules to their advantage.


To evaluate this team on the criteria alone of will they are a World Series contender then they come up short. Of course this team has holes, no fan is trying to tell you they do not. Perspective is needed when looking at all of this, especially with how short of time AA has been on as GM and the strides that have been made. No Jays fan thought under any circumstance this team would be a perennial world Series contender by this time under AA.

[Otsy]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Sure. Contend and benefit are two different things. Young pitching can get a team from 69 to 75, it can't improve an already 81 win team.

Young and unproven pitchers can also keep them where they are. Projected opening day lineup for Orioles:

Guthrie (coming off worst season, 32 years old and won't get better)
Britton (24 years old, future stud, probably not yet though, numbers should get better)
Wei-Yin chen (26, pitched in Japan last year. No idea if he can pitch in the bigs)
Jake Arrieta (25, has an ERA over 5 last year and a bad WHIP, no idea how he got to 10 wins)
Tsuyoshi Wada (30, another pitcher from Japan)

I'd take most staffs in any organization over this. Who do the young guys learn from........Guthrie? Awesome work, 17 losses in 32 games started last year.

They do have young guys like Matusz and Tillman that should be back up this year at some point if don't make out of camp, but both were very unimpressive last year, especially Matusz with his 10.69 ERA in 12 starts. They don't just miraculously win 3 or 4 more games each to become a .500 ball club.

[Otsy]

Also I agree with the way AA is building. He's put some good pieces together. There was no real upgrade at 2B over Kelly Johnson who is still a top 10 2B in terms of power with his 21 homers. Better average would be nice.

They will have some trade bait probably with JPA possibly as soon as this year depending how Travis d'Arnaud produces. One of the top 3 catching prospects in all of the big leagues. Average and power and better defensively then JPA.

For left field, he's probably going to platoon this year and hopefully Snider can take the reigns finally and produce at the big league level, or Thames because in another year Anthony Gose will be in CF and Rasmus can play left. Gose is starting to show a little power as he's maturing and stole 70 bases in AA last year.

I do worry about the starting pitching but if he can make a trade later this year or next offseason, I think if the young guys can start producing in the field, we can have something really exciting for 2013

[flames_1987]

Rasmus, still a very young player who has a chance to be a 5 tool player at one of the most important positions in baseball, who as a Jay has an extremely small sample size to make any judgments on, could be one of the elite rising stars in this game as many have projected of him, or he could never reach his potential.

Travis Snider is the same way. He's put up incredibly strong numbers at every level he's played at. People so easily forget he is only 22 years old. He could be a constant in the heart of the Jays order for years to come our he could never reach his potential.

Brett Lawrie could continue off his great start in the Major's from last season, and how he destroyed pitching at every level on his way to the big team or he could never reach his potential.

It's the same story for Alvarez, Arencibia, D'arnuad, McGuire, Gose, Hutchinson, Marisnick, Syndergaard, Nicolino, Norris, the list goes on and on. As used to describe the Jays prospects right now by baseball futures "Overall, I think this list speaks for itself. There is upside with guys who could be stars, there are solid future role players, there are arms, there are bats, there is power, there is speed, there is defense"

To simply measure this team on a success/fail scale based purely on if they are a contender or not this year is insane, especially to not even mention the farm system.

[flames_1987]

Originally Posted by Otsy

I do worry about the starting pitching but if he can make a trade later this year or next offseason, I think if the young guys can start producing in the field, we can have something really exciting for 2013

Bingo. And as for starting pitching, AA has been very open about wanting to add another strong #2-#3 arm. This was a horrible free agency class for strong starting pitching, and the asking price is extremely high right now through the trade market. The Jays are lucky that they have the tools to land a really big arm through a trade, and can be patient and jump on the opportunity to grab one when it comes available, without handicapping or selling the farm, which is a luxury such few teams have.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by flames_1987

Rasmus, still a very young player who has a chance to be a 5 tool player at one of the most important positions in baseball, who as a Jay has an extremely small sample size to make any judgments on, could be one of the elite rising stars in this game as many have projected of him, or he could never reach his potential.

Travis Snider is the same way. He's put up incredibly strong numbers at every level he's played at. People so easily forget he is only 22 years old. He could be a constant in the heart of the Jays order for years to come our he could never reach his potential.

Brett Lawrie could continue off his great start in the Major's from last season, and how he destroyed pitching at every level on his way to the big team or he could never reach his potential.

It's the same story for Alvarez, Arencibia, D'arnuad, McGuire, Gose, Hutchinson, Marisnick, Syndergaard, Nicolino, Norris, the list goes on and on. As used to describe the Jays prospects right now by baseball futures "Overall, I think this list speaks for itself. There is upside with guys who could be stars, there are solid future role players, there are arms, there are bats, there is power, there is speed, there is defense"

To simply measure this team on a success/fail scale based purely on if they are a contender or not this year is insane, especially to not even mention the farm system.

That's alot of ifs. I just wish there were a couple of veterans and a couple bridges to smooth over the transition. Even with a stud they're not a contender this year but I think it helps. At it's current state, I don't think this team can contend until 2015 at the earliest and that is assuming without any setbacks. You can build with free agents too, free agent doesn't mean BAM you have to win tomorrow.

Again using Fielder as an example. Even with Fielder at 1B or DH interchange with Lind, the Jays still would not contend in 2012 and 2013. It takes alot to get from 80 wins to 95 wins. But with Fielder being the center-piece and still building the other positions the AA way, the team would be really good 2014-2018.

I think it's a missed opportunity.

Originally Posted by flames_1987

Bingo. And as for starting pitching, AA has been very open about wanting to add another strong #2-#3 arm. This was a horrible free agency class for strong starting pitching, and the asking price is extremely high right now through the trade market. The Jays are lucky that they have the tools to land a really big arm through a trade, and can be patient and jump on the opportunity to grab one when it comes available, without handicapping or selling the farm, which is a luxury such few teams have.

They were in the hunt for Latos. Too bad they didn't get him. But the asking price for #2s is always gonig to be high.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

They don't have a LF. They don't have a 2B. 3B is much better but we only saw Lawrie for half a season.

They didn't have one this time last year either.

Kelly Johnson is fine at 2B. He's not an all star, but he was worth 2.2 wins last year (compared to Aaron Hill's 0.7), good for 12th among qualified 2B. Easily as upgrade there.

We only saw Lawrie for half a season, but the production from 3B aside from him was AAA level and Lawrie didn't exactly come out of nowhere - the guy is very highly regarded and absolutely dominated AAA.

15 game winner Cecil is nowhere. Snider can't prove he can hit yet, he may never be able to hit. The CF we traded for might be a lazy pantload. Morrow and Drabek took a step back, Drabek might not be MLB caliber at all. Is the bullpen really improved? I nearly spilled coffee, best bullpen in the majors? Cordero and Oliver!? Are Cordero, Oliver and Santos really that much better than Francisco, Dotel and Rzepcinsky? Dotel and Rzepcinsky were awesome in the playoffs.

15 game winner is irrelevant - Cecil was a pretty mediocre pitcher in 2010 he just got the run support to win games.

Snider is definitely a question mark.

The CF we trade for might be an all star too. Do I have to remind you that Corey Patterson and Rajai Davis were our starting centrefielders for most of last year? Two guys who can't even put up a .300 OBP.

The bullpen is clearly improved. The numbers speak for themselves. And who cares what Dotel and Rzep did in the playoffs? First of all, that's only about 8 innings of pitching - why does that overrule the 60 or so innings they pitched during the regular season? Either way, the discussion is whether the Blue Jays bullpen is better. And Dotel/Francisco were complete busts for most of the year (Francisco started pitching well once the season was over) so it's hard to see the bullpen not take a big step forward.

Who's the DH? Are we just going to keep treating it like a fill-in position and rotate useless players like Encarnacion there? Vizquel at SS and Escobar to DH from time to time, how bout that?

How is Encarnacion useless? He may not be anything special, but the guy is a good enough hitter.

And why you keep bringing up Vizquel and his MINOR LEAGUE CONTRACT is beyond me. The guy is a spring training invite.

Go position by position and tell me how this team is better? The team has one quality starter, one bat in RF and a bunch of question marks.

If Morrow isn't a quality starter I don't know who is. ERA isn't everything.

The direction might still be ok but they're a last place team in 2012. Yes I will get flamed but they're finishing last this year in AL East.

Tell me exactly how the Orioles make up 16 games on the Blue Jays. I need a good laugh.

I'm not saying break the bank but a couple of free agents to supplement the youth would have been nice. Getting free agents doesn't mean win now, someone like Fielder or Darvish (for example) are still in their 20s and the target could still be 2013 or 2014.

So we should pay hundreds of millions of dollars with the intention of winning in 2-3 years. For guys with major red flags in Fielder (weight issues, paying $214 million for a DH) and Darvish (hasn't pitched an inning of MLB ball). Why don't we wait 2-3 years and spend the money then and get the guys to play their best for us at their peaks?

[quote[Or even more middle-ranged free agents, especially pitchers like Bedard, Harang etc... A pitching staff with Romero and 4 kids can't be good for a long 162 game season.[/quote]

The Berard who's averaged only 18 starts per season over the last three years?

The 34 year old Harang who's been worth 0.9 wins in 2010 and 0.6 wins in 2011?

What does signing those guys do to improve the Blue Jays playoff chances?

Good in theory but there may not be a good FA at that time. There won't be as good an FA as Fielder in the next 5 years. Fielder would have destroyed the SkyDome while hitting behind Bautista.

Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, and Zach Grienke are all free agents next summer and superior players to Fielder.

Fielder isn't some unusually good free agent. The guy is a good hitter, but ridiculously over-rated. Paying that much cash for a guy who is going to be a DH is ridiculous.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by flambers

Sure they have, only Dotel and Rysz are gone who I would mark down as quality RPs.

No they haven't. Not relative to how they stack up this time last year with the incoming crop...

Franky Frank: 2010 - 1.0 fWAR
Octavio Dotel: 2010 - 0.9 fWAR
Rzep: 2011* - 1.0 fWAR
Jon Rauch: 2010 - 1.1 fWAR

Sergio Santos: 2011 - 1.6 fWAR
Francisco Cordero: 2011 - 0.1 fWAR
Darren Oliver: 2011 - 1.3 fWAR
Jesse Litsch: 2011 - 0.7 fWAR

Everyone else is a returnee from the starting line-up so they cancel each other other out. by the numbers the bullpen is actually 0.3 fWAR worse this year then this time last year.

* I used Rzep's 2011 because it was the first year he was used as primarily a relief pitcher... seemed the fairest way to include him.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...-the-blue-jay/