2011 NFL thread

[Otsy]

Aaron Rodgers had questions coming out of college and was taken in the 20's, not the first overall most hyped prospect in, well, probably since Manning. There's very little chance he sits behind Manning for a couple years. I'm not even sold Manning ever plays again. 3 neck surgeries? Gotta be more then a few red flags there. I know the owner wants to be loyal to Manning and vice versa, but if you can get anything for him and start over with Luck, do it and get everything you can for it.

St. Louis drafted Bradford under the old system, have way way too much money invested in him to draft another QB right now. They would trade the pick if they had #1. Adam Schefter thinks it's worth 3 first round picks and 2 seconds or 4 firsts. Tough to turn that down if someone is dumb enough to give that up.

Ponder was drafted 12th in the new system, they don't owe him that much money, they'll toss him aside like a rag doll if given the opportunity to get Luck. Not cause they're dumb as posted above, because they're very smart. Luck is a way better prospect then Ponder will ever be.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I think the Colts take Luck AND keep Manning....it only makes sense imo.

Manning isnt going to want to move, and Polian is loyal as well as a very shrewd football guy.

Take Luck, let him sit behind Manning for a couple seasons and as insurance in case Manning doesnt come back healthy or gets hurt again...and that team will be SB contenders for the long haul.

Last time a highly touted QB was taken and didnt start for a couple years? Aaron Rodgers. That worked out OK.

Remember they have a rookie cap now that doesnt force teams to start guys right away...and i think we start to see the trend now where guys are brought along much more slowly because of it.

Terrible asset management, and if the Colts do that they can expect to suck for a long time. The Rodgers situation was completely different. He was taken by a team who already had a decent young core and a GM who had and continued to draft well.

The Colts are in rapid decline, with a bunch of aging veterans who need to be replaced in the next year or two. They've also been drafting quite poorly in the last few years. Keep Manning if you want, but you better trade that #1 pick for assets that will help you fill the holes on your team, or you're going to look a lot like the St. Louis Rams in the next few years.

[rubecube]

I'd also like to add that not going out and signing a veteran QB was the dumbest thing the Texans have done all year. That team has a lights out defense and just needs a game-manager QB, with a good arm, who can stretch the field occasionally to make some noise in the playoffs. McNabb may be washed up but he could easily fill that role.

If I'm the Texans GM, I'm on the phone today to get someone in as quickly as possible. Give him two weeks to learn the offense and then run a ground and pound game through the playoffs.

This is the best shot you've had at Super Bowl in franchise history and you're going to put it in the hands of TJ Yates? Ridiculous. The worst thing is, if they'd signed McNabb a few weeks ago and just let Yates play out the season until McNabb learned the offense they'd probably be in a pretty good spot.

[GirlySports]

The Rams will almost certainly trade out regardless of position. They have way too many needs on both sides of the ball and at this point are better off trading for NFL bodies rather than playing roulette with the draft. The only pick that might make sense is the OL monster out of USC but there may be outright revolution if they draft another OL with a top three pick. The Rams aren't winning again this year (@Pitt, SF) so the worry for Indy fans is winning again and/or having to trade with the Rams.

The Vikings are more of a question mark.. would they take Luck and dump Ponder? Ponder has very little trade value, the #1 pick gets them back beaucoup.

And finally, as good and NFL ready as Luck is, any team in win now mode would not be wise to mortgage draft picks to get him. If they actually had any draft picks left, a team like Oakland would have been an obvious choice. Miami's QB situation is so dire, I'd say they'd have a decent shot at being a player too.

[Otsy]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

The Rams will almost certainly trade out regardless of position. They have way too many needs on both sides of the ball and at this point are better off trading for NFL bodies rather than playing roulette with the draft. The only pick that might make sense is the OL monster out of USC but there may be outright revolution if they draft another OL with a top three pick. The Rams aren't winning again this year (@Pitt, SF) so the worry for Indy fans is winning again and/or having to trade with the Rams.

The Vikings are more of a question mark.. would they take Luck and dump Ponder? Ponder has very little trade value, the #1 pick gets them back beaucoup.

And finally, as good and NFL ready as Luck is, any team in win now mode would not be wise to mortgage draft picks to get him. If they actually had any draft picks left, a team like Oakland would have been an obvious choice. Miami's QB situation is so dire, I'd say they'd have a decent shot at being a player too.

Oakland just gave up too much for Palmer, so safe to say they're in the "win now" mentality even if they don't have all the pieces yet.

Vikings would have the pick for Luck into the comissioner before 5 seconds ran off the clock if they had the opportunity to draft him. Ponder has lots of trade value, he was just drafted 12th overall...............He's played with crappy receivers and some games without AP so teams are just feasting on him. You can't give up on a kid after a few games when he's clearly not had a lot of help. He's showed some great moments this year and will get better. Lots of teams would give up a pick for him. Especially if they have a QB that Ponder can sit a little more and groom him instead of just throwing him to the wolves like the Vikings did.

Miami, Cleveland and Washington should all be desperate for a QB going into the draft, even though matt moore has played better then decent the last month or so. Tough to say how desperate though and if willing to give up years of picks to St. Louis if they land the #1 spot.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I'd also like to add that not going out and signing a veteran QB was the dumbest thing the Texans have done all year. That team has a lights out defense and just needs a game-manager QB, with a good arm, who can stretch the field occasionally to make some noise in the playoffs. McNabb may be washed up but he could easily fill that role.

If I'm the Texans GM, I'm on the phone today to get someone in as quickly as possible. Give him two weeks to learn the offense and then run a ground and pound game through the playoffs.

This is the best shot you've had at Super Bowl in franchise history and you're going to put it in the hands of TJ Yates? Ridiculous. The worst thing is, if they'd signed McNabb a few weeks ago and just let Yates play out the season until McNabb learned the offense they'd probably be in a pretty good spot.

Didn't they just add Jeff Garcia?

[Cheese]

Originally Posted by troutman

Didn't they just add Jeff Garcia?

yup

http://articles.sfgate.com/2011-12-0...acks-coach-cfl

he was on inactive list last night...

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports...,1893740.story

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by troutman

Didn't they just add Jeff Garcia?

My bad. Hadn't seen that.

[Otsy]

Still had to be someone better then that. I was a big fan of Garcia, but dude is old and hasn't played football since these amazing stats for the Omaha Nighthawks last year
Jeff Garcia qb 8 132 255 51.76 1321 10 11 3.9 4.3 5.2 61.9

5.2 yards per attempt in the UFL? Might as well stay with Yates. Not sure how he was the best option

[transplant99]

Terrible asset management, and if the Colts do that they can expect to suck for a long time. The Rodgers situation was completely different. He was taken by a team who already had a decent young core and a GM who had and continued to draft well.

What? The packers were not "young" at all when Rodgers was drafted....in fact there are only 5 guys on that team older than him iirc.

Aaron Rodgers had questions coming out of college and was taken in the 20's,

Yes he fell...but leading up to the draft it was unclear who SF was going to take #1....him or Alex Smith...once they settled on Smith, the only reason Rodgers fell as far as he did was because everyone else had their qb already...and so did GB but they just could not pass up on the value at that point. Remember...this was all pre-Favre drama, and Thompson took heat for it....but he said at the time he had a plan in place and couldnt pass on the chance to take him.

I still think Manning is done myself...tho he will try again, but when he falls who do you want at the most important position in the game? Luck or Dan Orlovsky and 5 draft choices?

[Sylvanfan]

Jake Delhomme was also signed by the Texans before Garcia. Still when you are 11 weeks into the season and you have to bring a new QB into the building you're behind the 8 ball. Texans were one of the few teams who had a somewhat competent backup only to lose him too.

I still can't believe Denver let Orton go with the number of teams who were a disaster at the position. Orton may not be better than average...but for about 5 teams he was a huge upgrade from what they had.

[Otsy]

Originally Posted by transplant99

What? The packers were not "young" at all when Rodgers was drafted....in fact there are only 5 guys on that team older than him iirc.



Yes he fell...but leading up to the draft it was unclear who SF was going to take #1....him or Alex Smith...once they settled on Smith, the only reason Rodgers fell as far as he did was because everyone else had their qb already...and so did GB but they just could not pass up on the value at that point. Remember...this was all pre-Favre drama, and Thompson took heat for it....but he said at the time he had a plan in place and couldnt pass on the chance to take him.

I still think Manning is done myself...tho he will try again, but when he falls who do you want at the most important position in the game? Luck or Dan Orlovsky and 5 draft choices?

My point with Rodgers is that he did not have the hype that Luck does, he was not deemed a saviour, you said it yourself that Thompson took heat for drafting him or he would have slid even further. Also would Rodgers have been this good this fast if he didn't sit for three years watching and learning regardless or not if Brett Favre wanted him there or helped him? Maybe, maybe not.

Of course Indy would love to have Luck to back up Manning if Manning gets hurt again or just isn't the same. Too bad it's not just about what a team wants. There's salaries involved, a 28 million dollar roster bonus due to Peyton, their ability to co exist on the same team. Luck has done and said all the right things until now, what if that changes and he demands to play because he was taken first overall for a reason. Also I don't see how Indy would ever trade the Luck pick for future draft picks so having Dan Orlovsky or 5 picks wouldn't be a scenario. If anything they trade Manning and get whatever they can for him.

[transplant99]

Interesting little stat for you gamblers that use history to make wagers..

The Packers are one of five teams in NFL history to open a season 13-0 and then lose in their 14th game. All four of the other teams lost their 15th game, too. That list includes the 2009 and 2005 Indianapolis Colts, the 2009 New Orleans Saints and the 1998 Denver Broncos.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Interesting little stat for you gamblers that use history to make wagers..

The Packers are one of five teams in NFL history to open a season 13-0 and then lose in their 14th game. All four of the other teams lost their 15th game, too. That list includes the 2009 and 2005 Indianapolis Colts, the 2009 New Orleans Saints and the 1998 Denver Broncos.

The Packers are not losing to the Bears, just on principle.

[cross16]

Originally Posted by transplant99

What? The packers were not "young" at all when Rodgers was drafted....in fact there are only 5 guys on that team older than him iirc.

It was also Ted Thompson's first pick as GM so Rodgers actually started Thompson's building process, and at the time Green Bay was saddled with a lot of veterans and was over the salary cap.

[Sylvanfan]

I think the Colts take Luck, and hope Manning recovers and plays well next year so they can trade him for a third round pick. No way they'd make Luck sit for more than one year, and at this point, no way they'd let the next sure thing QB out of their grasp.

They just had a 10 year run of winning 10 games a season because they'd been set at that position. They'll know their best chance to duplicate that will be with Luck.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Interesting little stat for you gamblers that use history to make wagers..

The Packers are one of five teams in NFL history to open a season 13-0 and then lose in their 14th game. All four of the other teams lost their 15th game, too. That list includes the 2009 and 2005 Indianapolis Colts, the 2009 New Orleans Saints and the 1998 Denver Broncos.

I would consider taking the Bears to cover, but anyone who bets based off trends like that will lose in the long run.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by cross16

It was also Ted Thompson's first pick as GM so Rodgers actually started Thompson's building process, and at the time Green Bay was saddled with a lot of veterans and was over the salary cap.

This is true. I guess what I meant was that Rodgers was going to a team that had just gone 9-7, and had some decent pieces, not a team that was 2-14 and in need of upgrades at every position. I think if the Colts trade Manning and draft well, they can be a playoff team again within two years, and a Super Bowl contended in 3-4. If they keep Manning and trade Luck, they'll be lucky to make the playoffs for the next three years and then hope to hell they can find a franchise QB to make the picks they received in the Luck trade worthwhile.

[FlamingLonghorn]

One thing to note is that Luck is the most hyped QB since Manning, however that year there was debate on whether Manning was the top QB in that class with Leaf. Leaf was a "can't miss" prospect as well and look where that ended up. Lots of "experts" rated Leaf higher than Manning. Speaking of look what the Chargers traded to move up one spot to draft Leaf:
2 1st rounders
2nd rounder
Eric Metcalf

[Displaced Flames fan]

Originally Posted by Sowa

One thing to note is that Luck is the most hyped QB since Manning, however that year there was debate on whether Manning was the top QB in that class with Leaf. Leaf was a "can't miss" prospect as well and look where that ended up. Lots of "experts" rated Leaf higher than Manning. Speaking of look what the Chargers traded to move up one spot to draft Leaf:
2 1st rounders
2nd rounder
Eric Metcalf

That's why it is sooooo important for teams to get to know these kids on a personal level before they draft them. Character should be the number one concern for any high draft pick.

Ryan Leaf was as physically gifted a QB as the league had seen in a long time. He wasn't stupid either, but he wasn't right. Not mentally tough. Didn't have the will to do everything he needed to do to be the best.

That's the most important thing any team should consider when drafting high, especially at the QB position.

Ryan Leaf will be the first to tell you that he blew it. He wasn't incapable, his immaturity destroyed him.