2011/12 Toronto Blue Jays Off-Season

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by JayP

People make comparisons, but in terms of pure economics it's ridiculous. If market conditions are different so why should the numbers stay the same?



Like I said, since Darvish is that much better than Dice-K why would he get only $600k more in the bidding? Market conditions. The teams involved, apprehension of bidding so much after Dice-K didn't pan out, etc. If Darvish blows Dice-K out of the water then why should we even consider a bid of a few thousand more serious? Shouldn't the winning bid have cleared $55-60 million then? The fact that Darvish got basically the same as Dice-K shows the market was down.

And, no, it's not better to overbid than come up empty handed. It's ridiculously short-sighted to say that the Jays should've bid $60m just "to make sure". AA had a value he established for Darvish and Texas exceeded it. To go over that limit is what bad general managers do.

You're thinking of it as a pure baseball strategy. But you see the fan backlash today. You may dismiss it as short-sighted and stupid and that's what it is. That's the fanbase.

AA can't win every trade, he can't be purely baseball all the time.
Sometimes he has to give up something to get something. They can't all be Rasmus type trades. And in this case there weren't even assets involved, just money which pisses off fans even more. Fans want Rogers to spend and they fail because of an 'established value' that AA put on Darvish which in baseball terms makes sense but for the fanatic doesn't.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

You're thinking of it as a pure baseball strategy. But you see the fan backlash today. You may dismiss it as short-sighted and stupid and that's what it is. That's the fanbase.

AA can't win every trade, he can't be purely baseball all the time.
Sometimes he has to give up something to get something. They can't all be Rasmus type trades. And in this case there weren't even assets involved, just money which pisses off fans even more. Fans want Rogers to spend and they fail because of an 'established value' that AA put on Darvish which in baseball terms makes sense but for the fanatic doesn't.

Rule #1 of being a GM, Owner or Coach of a Sports Team:

NEVER REACT TO THE FANBASE

As you said the fanbase as a whole is short-sighted and stupid. The whole thing will blow over once the next rumor of AA chasing a player comes out. Had AA bid $65 million to make sure he got Darvish, just to satisfy the fanbase, that would have been the wrong move.

Let the fanbase be angry because in sports any emotion is good emotion, the real problem is when fans stop caring about what the team does.

[dustyanddaflames]

I personally think the bid only exceeded Dice-K's bid from Boston by only $600,000, because there is a lot of risk in bringing in Japenese players. Truly - outside of Ichiro, how many of these guys have been worth the money that clubs had spent on them? Igawa, Nishioka (TBD still), Matsuzaka, Ishii - all have fell short of expectations I feel, and there is a huge question mark that lies because of this.

It is a big transition for the guys coming overseas, and becoming accustomed to the North American culture. I don't think a 1/12 chance screams for Anthopolous to bid outragiously for a guy who many scouts/MLB execs seem split on what exactly he is. We have heard that Darvish is anywhere from a future ace of the staff to a #3 starter. If he becomes the latter, not only have you dropped $50 million just to talk contract with him, you have probably committed upwards to $70 million in contractual dollars to him as well. That is a huge risk that Anthopolous I am sure has calculated in. He may be the next Ichiro, we don't know yet, but outside of the disappointment of playing second fiddle to the Rangers, I hold no grudge on the Blue Jays organization whatsoever. I do know, that if Darvish doesn't reach ace potential - I'd be uber peaved at the fact we used $100+ million to land this guy, and he is pitching behind Brendan Morrow, who we got for Brandon League.

There are just too many question marks to dive off the deep end with this bid, and if you think that this is a PR nightmare now, could you only imagine what it would be if Darvish came over and never became the ace we are all invisioning.

EDIT - I love the fans that continue to keep saying "it was just money"... I am sure a lot of these people are ones who are scared to invest any of their money for potential growth - which is quite contradictory. I get that some are refering to the fact that the Jays wouldn't have to give up prospects in the deal - but $125-150 million is quite real, and quite a commitment. I don't care who you are - that is a huge commitment regardless of your financial statments.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

You're thinking of it as a pure baseball strategy. But you see the fan backlash today. You may dismiss it as short-sighted and stupid and that's what it is. That's the fanbase.

AA can't win every trade, he can't be purely baseball all the time.
Sometimes he has to give up something to get something. They can't all be Rasmus type trades. And in this case there weren't even assets involved, just money which pisses off fans even more. Fans want Rogers to spend and they fail because of an 'established value' that AA put on Darvish which in baseball terms makes sense but for the fanatic doesn't.

I understand that and it's pretty much standard practice that your average fan is very short-sighted.

My main issue is this idea that the Jays weren't "serious" because they didn't clear some arbitrary number that has nothing to do with Darvish. First off, we don't even know exactly what the Jays bid - it could've been $51.6mil for all we know. But more importantly, if the Jays weren't "serious" then the only team who was was the team who won the bidding.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Rule #1 of being a GM, Owner or Coach of a Sports Team:

NEVER REACT TO THE FANBASE

As you said the fanbase as a whole is short-sighted and stupid. The whole thing will blow over once the next rumor of AA chasing a player comes out. Had AA bid $65 million to make sure he got Darvish, just to satisfy the fanbase, that would have been the wrong move.

Let the fanbase be angry because in sports any emotion is good emotion, the real problem is when fans stop caring about what the team does.

Totally agree..... but if your fan base are ticked off that will result in less season tickets.

Jays have had a poor off-season so far.... PR wise.

Fans are hoping for a big slash... but its probably not going to happen

Patience for this team is really thin.

AA has a difficult job to say the least......

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Rule #1 of being a GM, Owner or Coach of a Sports Team:

NEVER REACT TO THE FANBASE

As you said the fanbase as a whole is short-sighted and stupid. The whole thing will blow over once the next rumor of AA chasing a player comes out. Had AA bid $65 million to make sure he got Darvish, just to satisfy the fanbase, that would have been the wrong move.

Let the fanbase be angry because in sports any emotion is good emotion, the real problem is when fans stop caring about what the team does.

You have to start reacting to the fanbase when ticket sales get to below 20000.

It's just money in an uncapped sport.
What's the difference between 45million and 65 million if they really wanted the player? Fans want to see results. Rogers are bazillionaires. What if the Blue Jays are 2nd best in the Fielder sweepstakes too?

If the Jays get nobody and the payroll is the same as last year.. is there hope?

[cross16]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

You have to start reacting to the fanbase when ticket sales get to below 20000.

It's just money in an uncapped sport.
What's the difference between 45million and 65 million if they really wanted the player? Fans want to see results. Rogers are bazillionaires. What if the Blue Jays are 2nd best in the Fielder sweepstakes too?

If the Jays get nobody and the payroll is the same as last year.. is there hope?

Without a doubt IMO.

Let's remember, this is a team that was competitive last year with a very shaky bullpen and a very patchwork rotation. Everyone is back and to that you're adding a full season of Lawire and Rasmus, a legit closer in Santos and hopefully Alvarez sticks as a starter full time. Then you've got a good half dozen canditates for the last two spots in the rotation and one of the deepest prospect pools in baseball. I would absoulutely feel there is hope if the Jays didn't pick up one more player this whole offseason (which is hightly unlikely I might add).

Sucks to lose out on Darvish but I think it's a bit much to question the team when we don't know the facts. How do you konw that AA didn't tell Rogers that he wanted nothing to do with Darivsh and that he felt it was the wrong move for the club? This may have nothing to do with Roger's parameters and maybe AA felt that Darvish was only worth 40 million..

[JayP]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

It's just money in an uncapped sport.
What's the difference between 45million and 65 million if they really wanted the player? Fans want to see results. Rogers are bazillionaires. What if the Blue Jays are 2nd best in the Fielder sweepstakes too?

It's just money until you're saddled with another Vernon Wells in 4 seasons. Then the same people who signed online petitions for the Jays to sign Prince Fielder are the ones complaining that the Jays over-spent on the wrong players.

You can't expect another team to always be stupid enough to take poor contracts off our hands.

[dustyanddaflames]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

You have to start reacting to the fanbase when ticket sales get to below 20000.

It's just money in an uncapped sport.
What's the difference between 45million and 65 million if they really wanted the player? Fans want to see results. Rogers are bazillionaires. What if the Blue Jays are 2nd best in the Fielder sweepstakes too?

If the Jays get nobody and the payroll is the same as last year.. is there hope?

I don't get this statement at all - it's just money? People say that as if there are comfortable in spending their own money this way as well? Truth is - though Rogers may have billions of dollars, they still have a business to run, and if Anthopolous and the rest of the brain trust of the organization felt that Darvish's value was capped at their bid - then so bit it. Why would someone over pay what their preceived value of a player is? Just to keep the fans happy?

I am willing to bet all my money, that out of all of us on this board, Anthopolous has a better gauge to what Darvish is than the rest of us here behind a computer screen. Maybe he and his scouts seen something we didn't, maybe Darvish's value has been completely overblown by the media hype surrounding his posting? Truth is - AA bid to what he though Darvish's value would be - and they fell short. Is it bad PR? Maybe, all of the Blue Jay fans were hoping we would land him and have walked away extremely disappointed. Is it bad business? I don't think so, they bid to what they thought his worth was and someone valued him higher than the Jays did. Walk away and move on, there are more moves to be had.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

You have to start reacting to the fanbase when ticket sales get to below 20000.

It's just money in an uncapped sport.
What's the difference between 45million and 65 million if they really wanted the player? Fans want to see results. Rogers are bazillionaires. What if the Blue Jays are 2nd best in the Fielder sweepstakes too?

If the Jays get nobody and the payroll is the same as last year.. is there hope?

$20 Million dollars that you can spend elsewhere in the organization. You should never extremely overpay a player just for the sake of overpaying.

Plus it is not like this is an open auction and the Blue Jays could have matched what the Rangers offered. All rumors point that the Jays offered around $50 million and had won the bid, it just happened the Rangers came in with a higher bid.

If it was open auction and the Blue Jays failed to keep matching the Rangers the fans have an argument, but AA took a calculated risk, bid what he though was good value for the player, and got outbid. Live and Learn.

If AA continues to make smart, prudent moves as GM the team will start winning and they won't have to worry about the ticket sales or missing out on the "Big" name.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

$20 Million dollars that you can spend elsewhere in the organization. You should never extremely overpay a player just for the sake of overpaying.

Plus it is not like this is an open auction and the Blue Jays could have matched what the Rangers offered. All rumors point that the Jays offered around $50 million and had won the bid, it just happened the Rangers came in with a higher bid.

If it was open auction and the Blue Jays failed to keep matching the Rangers the fans have an argument, but AA took a calculated risk, bid what he though was good value for the player, and got outbid. Live and Learn.

If AA continues to make smart, prudent moves as GM the team will start winning and they won't have to worry about the ticket sales or missing out on the "Big" name.

I hope so. We'll see.. eventually 'going in the right direction" gets tiresome. We heard this years ago.

[St. Pats]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I hope so. We'll see.. eventually 'going in the right direction" gets tiresome. We heard this years ago.

AA said again today that the goals remain the same for the offseason. They would like to add arm to the rotation and a bat. That they didn't slow down trade talks during the Darvish process(which, of course, he wouldn't even admit they were involved in).

So we will see. I think it's become a bit of a put up or shut up year for the Jays. No they don't have to go crazy but they better show some positive results if they want to put more butts in the seats. Which equals more money for Rogers which is what makes them happy afterall.

[Otsy]

Maybe they have had a great PR offseason, but fans should know the product on the field is getting better. Have an offense that can compete with anyone most nights, addressing some bullpen issues already and have shown interest in starting pitchers too. Plus as posted above, full seasons from call ups and trades that came in from last year. I'm excited about this year. Having an extra playoff spot to compete for is nice too.
Also people are dissapointed on what we've missed out on, but our direct competetion hasn't done anything yet this off season either. Yankees rotation still a mess, Red Sox lost one of the best closers in baseball, Rays haven't added anything to make them that much better and Orioles are still figuring things out again.

[cross16]

Originally Posted by Otsy

Maybe they have had a great PR offseason, but fans should know the product on the field is getting better. Have an offense that can compete with anyone most nights, addressing some bullpen issues already and have shown interest in starting pitchers too. Plus as posted above, full seasons from call ups and trades that came in from last year. I'm excited about this year. Having an extra playoff spot to compete for is nice too.
Also people are dissapointed on what we've missed out on, but our direct competetion hasn't done anything yet this off season either. Yankees rotation still a mess, Red Sox lost one of the best closers in baseball, Rays haven't added anything to make them that much better and Orioles are still figuring things out again.

Agree 100%, this should be an exciting year for the Jays regardless of what the payroll ends up being. Last year, you figured was going to be alot of up and down with a new manager, dealing their best starter (at the time) and generally ahve alot of "holes" that were sort of plugged with stop gaps (Ie. Nix at first base). This is the first time in a long time that I think the Jays will enter a season with a full slate of some very good position players. There really isn't a position on the diamond that has a question mark to it and their offence, which was already good, should be even better. Their bull pen has some good young arms coming along, I really like Careno, Jansen and Santos, and if they are able to pick up just one more Lefty I think your talking about a pretty solid bullpen. Of course the rotation is still a repair, and you're not going to compete with an iffy rotations but I fully trust they will pick up at least one more top 3 starter before the season starts. And like you said, how have the Yankees, Red Sox, or Rays getting better this offseasons that is going to make the Jays making a big splash that much more important?

So even without getting Darvish, and without a "big name" I dont' see how you can't be excited for the Jays just by looking at their lineup and seeing how much better this team is than it was 2 or 3 seasons ago so I don't agree that by the Jays saying they are "going in the right direction" is getting tiresome when the results are already right there. This is a much better ball club today than it was 2 or 3 years ago, with a bright future they didn't have when AA took over as well.

[GirlySports]

I was just as excited during the Halliday, Wells, Rios, Hill era too! Look where that got me.

Are the Jays youngsters better than those guys? Jury is still out.

There are alot of question marks. 1B Lind had a horrible year. 2B Johnson has been dumped by every other team. Who's in left? Why? I don't know. Snyder can't hit anything offspeed.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Otsy

Maybe they have had a great PR offseason

You mean they have not had a great PR offseason right? I think AA's honeymoon is pretty much over based on what I've read. I mean fans will still think he's a great GM (and he is) but he's benefitted the past few years from lowered expectations... eventually those expectations had to rise.

Originally Posted by Otsy

Yankees rotation still a mess, Red Sox lost one of the best closers in baseball, Rays haven't added anything to make them that much better and Orioles are still figuring things out again.

True enough but only if you consider the AL East to be the be all and end all of direct competition. If you consider the larger American League to be the direct competition based on the Wildcard Slots then the Angels added Pujols and Wilson while the Rangers will effectively replace Wilson with Darvish (should they be successful in signing him... which I believe they will). Making the post-season just got significantly harder.

I'm very disappointed that the Jays did not get Darvish. The Jays rotation needs a legit #1 or #2 guy (which I think Darvish will be) in addition to Romero and Morrow and barring an unexpected dramatic advancement from someone they just don't have that right now. Complicating matters is that it is not available on the free agent market, nor is the asking price in assets on the trade market just for guys on the cusp all that desireable).

[dustyanddaflames]

Good post Parallex - agreed with a lot of what you said about other teams outside of our division getting better... We become so focused on just the AL East that we sometimes forget what other clubs are doing as well, and it is important, as these are the clubs that will be vying for that extra Wild Card spot.

[Otsy]

Yes, earlier I meant, have not had a great PR offseason.

First and foremost you need to build to win your division, not the wildcard. So you need to worry more about how to beat the yanks, sox, rays consistently. Win your division and your in, don't have to worry about texas and anaheim until the playoffs. Of course they look at what other teams outside their division are doing, but when you play your division foes 18 times each or whatever it is, that's where your main focus needs to be.

Darvish is an unknown MLB pitcher. He has the stuff but I'd rather spend money or prospects and get a pitcher that you know can pitch here. Maybe he doesn't adjust well to living in North America, who knows what will happen. Hopefully for texas he turns into $125 million dollar pitcher.

The offseason isn't over, hopefully we land a good starting pitcher and Lawrie, Thames can jump into starting roles and continue to grow.

[Jason14h]

Buster Olney reporting that the Jays finished second trying to get Matt Latos, and are still working hard on several trades for pitching.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Buster Olney reporting that the Jays finished second trying to get Matt Latos, and are still working hard on several trades for pitching.

Same fellow provided other tweet which were prooved false.

I believe it was the comment that AA spoke to Bobby Valentine...

Bobby later said, I have not spoke to AA in years.....