Oil Prices and Shortages Creating Tensions

[FlamesAddiction]

Is anyone else getting more concerned these days with how global tensions seem to be rising lately because of oil and gasoline?

There were the tensions between Russia and Ukraine a couple of weeks ago. Now Italy is blaming Ukraine for stealing fuel, and other European countries are getting ansy. You can almost imagine energy based alliances forming in the not too distant future.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4655914.stm

Tensions in former Soviet Republics are also increasing where fuel shortages are leading people to blame Russia saying that they are cutting back supplies.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4654632.stm

Not to mention, the constant stress in the Middle East mostly because of oil.

When I think about the role fuel shortages had in WWII and the events that led to major episodes of the war, and the fact that fuel resources are getting more expensive and patchy, I can't help but fear for the future.

Am I too paranoid? Somebody put my mind at ease.

[PYroMaNiaC]

I'd like to put your mind at ease but Alberta doesn't have enough military power to keep Russia from invading through Alaska.

[nfotiu]

does this article help:
http://money.cnn.com/2006/01/27/news...ex.htm?cnn=yes

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

does this article help:
http://money.cnn.com/2006/01/27/news...ex.htm?cnn=yes

Interesting article.

That freaks me out even more. It makes me think we're going to have a rough road ahead.

When the billionaires start talking about their money, that is usually when it really hits the fan.

[Flash Walken]

that article should be titled "George Soros creates instability in the market to drive up his own oilshares."

I honestly don't feel sorry for people who had no inclination that they might ever have to start paying a bit more for gasoline.

[Cowperson]

This looks like another attempt to talk a market in one direction or the other.

Remember the forescasts of $100 oil in 1979? And remember the Iraq/Iran conflict that left the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz a battleground? When Gulf War I started, I think oil barely blipped.

FYI, I think you might find that concensus among analysts around the world for oil in the coming year is about $53-$57 a barrel USA, with the price tailing off a bit in 2007.

Consuming countries are addicted to oil its true . . . . . but OPEC found out in 1973 that killing consuming countries over a matter of principle also kills themselves just as dead, if not more so since its the only thing they have to sell.

Cowperson

[Flash Walken]

I don't see oil prices tailing off in 2007 at all, but I'm interested into why you think that.

[simmer2]

Politically, having Russia in the news about unreliability in terms of delivering gas is a little frightening. One needs to remember though that they have not missed a delivery to Europe in 30 years. The last 2 weeks have been the first time that there have been some issues. Russia will likely stay relatively quiet and polite if they know what's good for them. With all the LNG shipping potential from Russia to North America, they don't want to **** too many people off.

[Hakan]

Hey Cow, what makes you think OPEC has control of Oil prices anymore?

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/7190109/

[Cowperson]

Originally Posted by Hakan

Hey Cow, what makes you think OPEC has control of Oil prices anymore?

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/7190109/

"Influence" would be a better word and that's been the right world for thirty years.

Also, March is a long ways in the rear-view mirror for that story.

FYI, if you've been surfing the news channels lately you might have caught Bill O'Reilly in the last few weeks saying a few oil traders in a few specific markets, at the behest of oil companies, have been manipulating crude and gas prices for monumental benefit.

His theory is that more and more trading is moving away from regulated markets to markets where there is no regulatory overseer to monitor corrupt trading practices.

It was right about there that I flipped the channel and I haven't bothered to wonder if his theory holds much water.

Oil is only one commodity and most commodities have been raging along with oil and you can't really assume ALL commodity markets could be manipulated in such a fashion . . . .

I don't see oil prices tailing off in 2007 at all, but I'm interested into why you think that.

I didn't offer my opinion.

I said "I think you might find that concensus among analysts around the world for oil in the coming year is about $53-$57 a barrel USA, with the price tailing off a bit in 2007."

By Googling and picking someone at random, it was easy to find the official verdit of Morgan Stanley, contained halfway down the link below, where he gives his justification for current higher prices and for his forecast of modestly lower prices in 2007. I think his is a fairly common opinion.

http://www.morganstanley.com/about/gsb/

Random google - Merrill Lynch - $57 in 2006 and $47 in 2007. $42 in 2008.

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet...oilmerrill0124

Cowperson