Is the decline of American Power overstated?

[tjinaz]

Author says yes. Seems to think America will come back hard in the 21st Century.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...o-America.html

Did not know 16 of the 20 top universities in the world were American.

[kirant]

Originally Posted by tjinaz

Author says yes. Seems to think America will come back hard in the 21st Century.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...o-America.html

Did not know 16 of the 20 top universities in the world were American.

There's a lot of questions that need to be resolved before we can tell how far America will fall (or if):
- How much of their dominance has been from actual hard work and how much from not being bombed to kingdom come...twice.
- Where will the power economy turn? A lot of the numbers quoted there are of oil and oil based industries, while I think it's likely the world will turn to natural gas as a stop gap between oil and another solution
- How will China react to no longer being a natural seller? China primarily sells, so when it becomes purchasers if it tries to become a power, what does it do?
- What will the EU do if more cases like Greece appear? Regular economics states that if Greece was allowed to blow up itself, it would eventually right itself. But all the work from the EU to artificially prop up its members gets horribly expensive and messy quick.
- As always, people love to throw the other BRIC nations in...so, what about them?
- Also, I've heard quite frequently that having the "top x" Universities generally doesn't mean a whole lot. I haven't heard from my friends an improved quality of education compared to mine. Heck, my friend in U of Toronto is a little behind where I am at the U of Calgary for Engineering.

[afc wimbledon]

Personally I think the US's fubar'd, while they may have 16 of the top 20 uni's they also have taken to worshiping stupidity and rejecting intellectualism to a frightening degree on an individual level, I would be interested to see how many international students attend those 16 uni's.
Their political system is no longer functions.

We have seen the future of the US and it is a nation of Jersey Shore

[oilyfan]

I read an article in Vanity Fair recently about the state of the US. It talked about how the Tea Party (and the broader Republican Party in general) has now made tax increase somehow un-American. It goes on to argue that the founding fathers actually considered the power of taxation the backbone of a strong federal government, allowing them better credit terms when they raised money to fight wars and assert "American Values".

I agree that somehow the US government has lost its way, seduced by this myth of the superiority of the American worker, the myth of the "American Dream" and the myth of solving problems with force.

American power is on the decline because the American people refuse to take responsibility for their financial misconduct, and now the only tool left in their collective arsenal (taxation) is being systematically dismantled.

[SeeBass]

I will just go with yes it is overstated and perhaps is now just more realistic to what it truly is as it was overated before.

[Bigtime]

What kind of power are we talking about here? Economic? Military? Sociological?

I would argue that the USA is still THE leading power in the military sense, and it will be many years before anyone could challenge them on those terms.

[tjinaz]

The article was written by the business editor so it is mostly about economic power. But then again, all other forms of power really project from that anyway.

[blankall]

I only think that their "dominance" has decreased as our definition of dominance has changed. We no longer see dominance as purely military, our idea of dominance is now largely based around economic factors.

The US will have the greatest military force well into the future. The US has also always had economic competitors. There have been no times in history where the US has had economic superiorty. They've always been competing with strong economies in Europe and Asia. If you compare the GDP of the US to the GDP of Germany of Japan over the last 50 years very little has changed.

Currently the US is having financial difficulties, but this isn't something new. In the 1970s there was major inflation. The 1980/1990s had their fair share of bad times and debt rose substantially.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US...since_1980.jpg

The US's overall share of GDP is slightly down. But this has more to do with an expanding and more affluent global population than a downward and sustained trend in the US economy. The overall change in % of PPP is also very low. Not enough to declare some kind of defeat of an empire, well if there ever was one.

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

What kind of power are we talking about here? Economic? Military? Sociological?

I would argue that the USA is still THE leading power in the military sense, and it will be many years before anyone could challenge them on those terms.

really? i thought the war on terror has shown the opposite.

it's sad to think that the intentions of the ######s that made things like 9/11 happen, essentially reached their intention, spreading fear in the society and hurting the economy.

I hope the article is correct and that the americans are able to turn this around. I'm sick of hearing canadians gloat about how our banks withstood things, blah, blah, blah. i'm not an economist by any means, but if the american economy falters, the canadian economy (think outside of AB please) will follow right behind.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by oilyfan

American power is on the decline because the American people refuse to take responsibility for their financial misconduct, and now the only tool left in their collective arsenal (taxation) is being systematically dismantled.

I largely agree with what you are saying except the American people refuse to take responsibility. The majority of people polled in the US favoured tax increases but it's the political process and the corruption thereof that seems to be preventing the increases from happening at the moment.

[oilyfan]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

I largely agree with what you are saying except the American people refuse to take responsibility. The majority of people polled in the US favoured tax increases but it's the political process and the corruption thereof that seems to be preventing the increases from happening at the moment.

Point taken, and I stand corrected...

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

really? i thought the war on terror has shown the opposite.

The "outcome" isn't what I was referring to, show me another country that could spend 10+ years halfway around the world with their armed forces in 2 different theaters fighting constantly. That projection of power (win, lose, or draw) can't be matched.

[CaptainCrunch]

If anything its a decline to restructuring and then back to a fight for the top.

The American's have too many levers world wide to truly fall.

They are no longer the industrial giant that they used to be because they farmed out a lot of that to countries that pay a dollar a day in wages, so America really needs to rebuild itself based around technology.

In terms of trade I think America has a trade deficit with almost every country in the world and the easiest market to get entry into, thats a pretty powerful lever if they ever decide to use it.

In terms of energy, I think America is a key importer even though they do have access to a lot of their own energy resources, they also need to restructure where they're getting that energy from, thats a pretty powerful lever.

From a Military standpoint even with China investing heavily in their military and Russia re-investing in theres those two countries are a generation behind in terms of sheer kill ratio ability, and in terms of experience, and that gap is at the very least staying consistant if not growing slightly in America's favor.

I remember it was about 20 years ago or 30 that the Japanese were going to take over the world and become the economic lever of the world and eventually that didn't happen.

China is a major economic power even though their individual GDP is very poor according to the last article I read in the Economist, the Chinese are also extremely dependant on their near one way trade agreements with the States.

While the Indian and other emerging markets are frightening because its tough to compete with their wage scale, eventually there is upwards pressure to increased that standard of living as the economy improves.

While America might decline, they're too powerful and well defined to continue to decline.

Then again I said the same thing about Rome and they nailed me to a tree for that.

[Fire]

Canada should conquer Florida while they are weak and feeble. Maybe Cuba can give us a hand and we can split the former state 50/50. There are about 1 million Cubans in Florida already so it should be an easy takeover.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

really? i thought the war on terror has shown the opposite.

.

I think this needs to be put into perspective.

Over 10 years the average troop level in Iraq was I think between 170,000 and 200,000. Just going by what I read.

They took what about 4500 casualties. In terms of actual battle costs thats very light.

In terms of management of the war from a financial side, that was a disastor, they spent nearly a trillion dollars on the war. Thats the war impact to be concerned about.

[GoFlamesGo89]

Interesting article, especially since I'll be relocating the US next year, thanks to the OP for sharing.

With regards to the universities, the interesting question there is how many of the top students actually remain in the US and will contribute to societal advancement?

I do think that it overstates the importance of cultural history in the US (and lack thereof in the EU).

[tjinaz]

Originally Posted by oilyfan
American power is on the decline because the American people refuse to take responsibility for their financial misconduct, and now the only tool left in their collective arsenal (taxation) is being systematically dismantled.
I largely agree with what you are saying except the American people refuse to take responsibility. The majority of people polled in the US favoured tax increases but it's the political process and the corruption thereof that seems to be preventing the increases from happening at the moment.

It isn't that they refuse to take responsibility or refuse to be taxed more. It is that they see so much government waste and corruption the feeling is why feed the machine more? Why not just fix the machine? The answer to the problems is not throwing more money down the same hole but to fix the problem.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Fire

Canada should conquer Florida while they are weak and feeble. Maybe Cuba can give us a hand and we can split the former state 50/50. There are about 1 million Cubans in Florida already so it should be an easy takeover.

I don't like the humidity. I'd rather partner with Mexico to take over California.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Personally I think the US's fubar'd, while they may have 16 of the top 20 uni's they also have taken to worshiping stupidity and rejecting intellectualism to a frightening degree on an individual level, I would be interested to see how many international students attend those 16 uni's.
Their political system is no longer functions.

We have seen the future of the US and it is a nation of Jersey Shore

If anything the UK is the perfect example of a nation filled with fools, and an overall sense of delusion. The United States will be just fine as far as your metric is concerned.

[Calgaryborn]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I think this needs to be put into perspective.

Over 10 years the average troop level in Iraq was I think between 170,000 and 200,000. Just going by what I read.

They took what about 4500 casualties. In terms of actual battle costs thats very light.

In terms of management of the war from a financial side, that was a disastor, they spent nearly a trillion dollars on the war. Thats the war impact to be concerned about.

That trillon dollars was inflated by a divided country. Every war finance bill was laden with a ton of pork barrel spending that had nothing to do with the war. If politicians supported their troops without insisting on playing politics America wouldn't have dug such a large hole for itself.

I also wonder about the wisdom of rebuilding. It doesn't appear American has gained an ally through the effort.