2011/12 Toronto Blue Jays Off-Season

[dustyanddaflames]

Thought now would be a good time to get one of these bad boys up and running. MLBTradeRumours just got their off-season review up, and it makes me a little excited with the amount of money the Jays will have at their disposal this off-season.

Guaranteed Contracts

• Jose Bautista, OF: $57MM through 2016
• Ricky Romero, SP: $29.1MM through 2015
• Adam Lind, 1B: 12.3MM through 2014
• Yunel Escobar, SS: $10MM through 2013 (plus two club options)
• Mark Teahen, UT: $5.5MM through 2012
• Rajai Davis, OF: $3.25MM through 2012
• Minor leaguer Adeiny Hechavarria also has a guaranteed contract.

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

• Jesse Carlson, RP: $700K (non-tender candidate)
• Colby Rasmus, OF: $2.8MM
• Brandon Morrow, SP: $4.1MM
• Jesse Litsch, RP: $1.3MM
• Carlos Villanueva, RP: $2MM
• Casey Janssen, RP: $1.5MM
• Dustin McGowan, RP: $700K

Contract Options

• Edwin Encarnacion, DH: $3.5MM club option with a $500K buyout (no Elias ranking)
• Jon Rauch, RP: $3.75MM club option with a $250K buyout (Type B ranking)
  

Free Agents

• Frank Francisco (Type B RP) Shawn Camp (Type B RP) Jose Molina (Type B C), Kelly Johnson (Type B 2B)
  

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/1...blue-jays.html
The rest of the article is here. A pretty good read if you have a couple of minutes to burn.

[Lil Pedro]

Would like to see them go after a stud starting pitcher personally, but a man can dream

[CaramonLS]

Darvish would be amazing.

[flames_fan_down_under]

Just the fact that AA was able to deal Wells and acquire Rasmus makes me excited for this off season to see what else he can do.

[Caged Great]

In my opinion, they must get Fielder. The jays are not that far away from contending, and it will only cost 1 draft pick to get him. Yes the dollars count as well, but you'd have to spend that to get someone like that anyway. Even if his body starts to suck in 5 years, we'd still get him while he's good while we're trying to contend.

There are no 1B prospects in the system, and Lind is not remotely good enough. On top of that, there are no 1B coming up in the next couple years in free agency (maybe Votto) and the other teams that would normally spend have 1B already. Plus if you got Fielder, you could likely flip Lind in a package to get a starter.

We do have a ton of pitchers coming up through the system, so we might not necessarily need any starters right now.

[moon]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

Darvish would be amazing.

I heard thatDarbish is going to Texas, but these things can change.

[bluejays]

I'm with CG here. Fielder would fit in nicely with what AA's trying to build, but I do believe a few weeks back AA said he's not going to make any big name signings, so we can all put that to rest I think (I do believe him when he says it). So that leaves trades (perhaps Votto?). Regardless, four guys who may be on their way out: Lind, Davis, Snider, Drabek. Generally AA trades guys at their highest value, but I think with the Jays getting closer and closer to contending, those are the guys who could get some decent return without giving much up production wise, now.

[Parallex]

I dunno, Fielder doesn't exactly fit the AA mold of athletic and toolsy. Personally I think they need a TOTR pitcher more. Yu Darvish by preference... makes more sense to put a legit effort into getting him then the two other options (Wilson & CC). I'd also like a better southpaw out of the pen and getting Johnson to stick around.

[browna]

I think another decent arm is required as a SP and probably another reliever.

Fielder would be an ideal PR move, and, because his dad was in Toronto, there's a better chance he'll have no issues in moving to the "outpost" that is Toronto as far as MLB free agents are concerned.

In addition to the big bat and the offense he brings, the off field fact that the Blue Jays land a big fish, his name recognition in the city to the casual fans, and a good personality, would all put butts in the seats in Toronto, which itself has to start being a concern.

[The Big Chill]

I don't mind Lind for now, but what about arencibia at 1B? I'm not sure if he could handle it defensively, but I think D'Arnaud will replace him at C in the not too distant future. DH may be his eventual destination if he can get his average up a bit.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by The Big Chill

I don't mind Lind for now, but what about arencibia at 1B? I'm not sure if he could handle it defensively, but I think D'Arnaud will replace him at C in the not too distant future. DH may be his eventual destination if he can get his average up a bit.

The problem with JPA is that his ability to hit HR's while being behind the plate is a bigger asset than if he were at either 1B or DH (He'd be a well below average 1B or DH)

The more likely situation is that when D'Arnaud is ready JPA will be dealt for something else of need.

[flames_fan_down_under]

Yep I think holding onto Johnson is key as there don't seem to be many improvements in terms of 2B via free agency, unless we want Aaron Hill back which i think is unlikely.

Fielder would bring instant credibility to the Jays. Escobar, Bautista, Fielder, Lawrie and Arencibia would be an intimidating group of hitters. Lind does present a pretty glaring weakness in the Jays line up and Fielder would be a humongous improvement, plus the Jays wouldn't have a tough time moving Lind as he has trade value and a reasonable contract. Having said that I just don't see it happening.

Maybe he ends up with the Giants who desperately need offense and love a big HR hitter or the Dodgers who lack a decent 1B. Or maybe some wildcard team like the Mariners just opens up their pocketbooks and give him a kings ransom. It will be interesting.

[Caged Great]

What I'd like to see while being semi realistic.

Sign Fielder to an 8/200 contract.
Sign Marco Scutaro to a 1 year 7 mil contract
Trade Adam Lind, Chad Jenkins and maybe Travis Snider to San Diego for P Mat Latos

C - Arencibia - Defensive backup
1B - Fielder
2B - Scutaro
SS - Escobar
3B - Lawrie
LF - Thames
CF - Rasmus
RF - Bautista
DH - Encarnacion
Bench - Mccoy, Teahen, Davis

Rotation

Romero
Matos
Morrow
Drabek/Alvarez/McGowan
Drabek/Alvarez/McGowan

Pen

Litsch
Cecil
Carreno
Janssen
Perez
Villaneuva
one spot for someone from the farm or free agency.

That's at least a 90 win team, and could possibly challenge for the wild card. At some point McGuire, Molina, Hutchison and others could filter up like Alvarez did last year.

[flambers]

In my view, Jays need to acquire (via trade) a #1 or #2 Starting Pitcher. That should be their highest priority, next phase is to bring in a closer. Lastly add solid depth to the bull pen

Jays need to figure out what is the plan with 2nd.

Jays offense is fine, I don't see a need for Fielder at this point. He is going to want an massive contract.

[dustyanddaflames]

Ya I think Anthopolous will be looking at making a deal to bring in a second baseman, and if it can't be done, I wouldn't be surprised to see Kelly Johnson retained. While he isn't the glitz and glamour we are all hoping for, the guy does have some pop in his bat and is quite capable of producing out of the 7 or 8 spot in the lineup.

I don't know how I feel about targeting Fielder, even understanding it is a name that the club can sell to it's fanbase. He will command major dollars, has a questionable physique, and seems to have one good season followed by an off season. If Fielder could put together back-to-back seasons of 30/100 - I'd be much more intrigued, though it would probably price himself out of Toronto.

I think Anthopolous need's to get that premier ace of the rotation and build an all-world bullpen. While I like Romero and where his progression is taking him - I think Romero is that dominant 2 starter that championship teams have. Matt Cain from last year - the guy isn't flashy and doesn't draw the headlines of a Tim Lincecum, but he gets results. His post-season last year was something else. That is what I see Romero as being - that excellent support cast. We need an ace - a guy we can run out twice in a five series, and the possibility of a spot in game 7. I just don't know who that guy is - maybe a guy like Mat Latos out of SD, who isn't there yet, but projects to be a front-line starter.

As for the bullpen - to me, it is what is needing the most attention this off-season. You look at the clubs that are in the WS this year, and once they get the ball to their pen - the game is in lockdown. This is what championship teams are made of - six innings from their starter, and no questions for the remaining three. The Blue Jays are no where near that point right now.

[dustyanddaflames]

nm

[The Big Chill]

I don't think there is much available for TOTR guys. Yu darvish is intriguing, but will be insanely expensive and risky. If AA could add in a number 2 starter then I think we would be looking pretty good. Both morrow and drabek have the stuff to be an ace, but obviously need to find a lot of consistency, and a way to keep their pitch count down.

The bullpen is even more important. A solid set-up man and a closer could easily add 10 wins onto this team. This simply must be addressed.

I actually wouldn't mind Hill coming back. I think he is a better player then kelly Johnson.

So, for me, I would rather see us focus on improving all areas of our pitching, rather then going after Fielder.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by The Big Chill

I don't think there is much available for TOTR guys. Yu darvish is intriguing, but will be insanely expensive and risky.

That's true... but he wouldn't cost anything beyond $ and he's young (we'd get all of his prime years) and has got less mileage on his arm (relative to the other TOTR options) so he's less likely to lose significant injury time. I figure after the posting fee and contract he'd end up costing about as much as the other top options for starting pitchers.

From a financial perspective he'd also open up a new market for Jays baseball in Japan (Dude is a rockstar over there). He'd bring in more money I wager.

My ideal starting rotation would probably go...

Romero
Darvish
Morrow
Alvarez
McGowen or Cecil

... if McGowen wins out offer Cecil the same deal Rzep got last year (AAA in the rotation or MLB in the Bullpen).

Originally Posted by The Big Chill

The bullpen is even more important. A solid set-up man and a closer could easily add 10 wins onto this team. This simply must be addressed.

Here's where we're going to have to disagree. Bullpens are the most overvalued part of MLB (No way will two relief pitchers make 10 extra wins). I'm not much for the mystique of "the Closer" I mean it strikes me as really silly to decline to use your best bullpen option when your up a run with the 2-3-4 hitters coming up in the 7th so that you can have him pitch to the 8-9-1 guy in the 9th... sometimes games are really saved in innings other then the 9th. If we must I'm perfectly comfortable with Janssen being the setup man (guy had great numbers last year) and retaining Franky as the 9th inning man. I'd be comfortable with Litsch replacing Camp and Carreno replacing Rauch as middle relief options. Like I said I do want a better lefty option... nothing against Luis Perez but I want another southpaw.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Here's where we're going to have to disagree.

Bullpens are the most overvalued part of MLB (No way will two relief pitchers make 10 extra wins).

I'm not much for the mystique of "the Closer" I mean it strikes me as really silly to decline to use your best bullpen option when your up a run with the 2-3-4 hitters coming up in the 7th so that you can have him pitch to the 8-9-1 guy in the 9th...

sometimes games are really saved in innings other then the 9th. If we must I'm perfectly comfortable with Janssen being the setup man (guy had great numbers last year) and retaining Franky as the 9th inning man. I'd be comfortable with Litsch replacing Camp and Carreno replacing Rauch as middle relief options. Like I said I do want a better lefty option... nothing against Luis Perez but I want another southpaw.

Jays had an insane amount of blown saves last year with a high end closer, that would have generated 8 to 10 more wins.

If I recall Jays had ~ 20 blown saves or something like that.

[dustyanddaflames]

Originally Posted by flambers

Jays had an insane amount of blown saves last year with a high end closer, that would have generated 8 to 10 more wins.

If I recall Jays had ~ 20 blown saves or something like that.

Don't quote me on this, but those blown saves weren't just in the 9th inning. You can get a blown save in the 7th just as easily as you can in the 9th innings. This is maybe the point you are trying to make, really unsure of what you were trying to get across.

As for the bullpen/closer not being important - I completely disagree with who ever said that. Like I said in an earlier post, look at the clubs who are in the World Series right now - the Rangers especially have a bullpen that just shuts the door. If their starter can get them 6+ innings with a lead, that game is nearly untouchable. The same went with the Braves all season long, Venters/Kimbrel/Linebrink were dominant and put the Braves in a position to be a post-season team. Unfortunately, they were just used too often during the season, and it bit them in the arse the last three weeks of it. A sturdy bullpen is about as essential as a dominant pitching staff - one has to coincide with the other. You have to have both - a good staff will only last you six of nine innings the majority of the time.