New Poll Sees Tory Lead Dramatically Shrink

[Nehkara]

The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail had, earlier in the week, released a poll with the Conservatives having 18 point (42 to 24) lead on the Liberals. Their poll released today shows that lead shrinking to 9 points (37 to 28) and that while the Conservatives had the lead (39 to 33) in Ontario earlier the week, the Liberals have regained a 7 point lead (40 to 33) in Ontario.

Looks like there is starting to be a change of heart with less than week left to go in the campaign.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNew...e=election2006

[transplant99]

Holy crap...thats a huge change in short order.

What can possibly be leading the people in Ontario back to the Libs?

The fearmongering nonsense that Martin is pulling out again? The added scandal? The Hargrove shot?

Wow.

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally Posted by transplant99

What can possibly be leading the people in Ontario back to the Libs?

The fearmongering nonsense that Martin is pulling out again? The added scandal? The Hargrove shot?

Maybe the possibility of a Conservative majority is leading them back?

Do you really think that the majority of people in Ontario are so dumb that they'll be duped by those pathetic Liberal attack ads and Buzz Hargrove?

[transplant99]

Do you really think that the majority of people in Ontario are so dumb that they'll be duped by those pathetic Liberal attack ads and Buzz Hargrove?

Well as of two days ago...they seemed fine with things.

[MarchHare]

Not surprising. I thought the recent surge in Conservative support would come falling back down if it looked like they were in majority territory. I still think Canadians (myself included) want a change in government, but they don't want to give Harper a majority.

[JBR]

Cold feet in Ontario

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Well as of two days ago...they seemed fine with things.

So your answer to my question "do you really think people in Ontario are that dumb...?" is "yes".

I disagree.

[Thunderball]

I think this is good for the Conservatives...

its better for people to think they might not win, and so they vote for them, not cause they fear the evil hidden agenda bogeyman... but cause they think they are the best choice of the 3.

Not to mention Strategic Council is typically the least reliable poll.

[Hakan]

Both polls are within each other's margin of error if you look closely. Nothing to deduce from this really. Polls are polls, they basically give you a relative sense of trends nothing more.

[ernie]

As well I'd imagine that it's the big cities of Toronto and montreal that may be firming up Liberal support that is driving these polls. They are liberal territory and likely will remain so (though there are a number of close races). I still think if you looked at a complete voter composite you'll see a pool of red of the metropolitan Toronto area in an ocean of blue in rural/less metropolitan areas. I'm not sure the Tories figured they would win many of those ridings anyways...they are hoping to steal one or two and hoping the NDP steal a few as well. In addition, i don't think the liberal support is any more firm than what the Conservative support was...a strong final three days or another major liberal gaff (and really the liberal candidate conceeding and the Saskatooon story may be all that's necessary) will reverse the poll.

It must really annoy the NDP that no matter what they do they are always in the 15% of the vote range. I think Layton's "lend us your vote" speeches were weak and showed a complete lack of confidence and leadership and it's hurting them.

[Cowperson]

Originally Posted by Nehkara

The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail had, earlier in the week, released a poll with the Conservatives having 18 point (42 to 24) lead on the Liberals.

If I'm not mistaken, they actually delayed releasing that poll because of the low sample size and the dramatic, out of synch, results . . . . they simply didn't believe their own poll was very accurate.

The new poll more probably reflects reality and is more in tune with the "market" of results other polls are producing.

In that context, I doubt there has been a "dramatic" drop in Conservative results . . . . but other polls are also showing a modest tailing off from the peak of a few days ago.

Cowperson

[Bobblehead]

I agree with those who think it is just people who want a change, but aren't confident enough with the Conservative platform to give them a majority.

Its almost like they want Harper to have a probation period first.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by RougeUnderoos

So your answer to my question "do you really think people in Ontario are that dumb...?" is "yes".

I disagree.

Huh? How did you extrapolate me saying that two days ago Ontarions were OK with a Con majority into they were dumb?

I simply, and quite clearly, was asking what it was that had them changing their minds so suddenly. No more, no less.

[The Goon]

Last week, I was thinking the CPC was peaking too early, so this correction wasn't unexpected. Harper's been getting nailed on straying from the message somewhat. I thought he did a decent job on "Your Turn" on CBC last night, though.

[Shazam]

Looks like the Conservatives took a dive into a cold pool.

[Flame On]

On Global they tried to corner Harper on abortion. He basically said it was not open for debate for his party.
But they pressed him. They asked him "never?" and he started saying "well never is a long time" etc. I don't think he was meaning that someday he'd revisit it. But a smarter response might have been "i've answered the question". Now some might think he is open to a review of it down the road.
Although that wasn't the Libs or Martin fear mongering perhaps some are starting to be more concerened and not perhaps by him but by the party.

[ernie]

Originally Posted by fotze

Here are more allusions to the conservatives have already won:

"So I suspect we won't deal with it right away, but we'll try and ask Parliament its opinion in due course." - Harper on what he will do with the gay marriage thing.

The thing is the questions are phrased as what a party or leader would do if he gets power. I think it is absolutely ridiculous that every time harper or a conservative answers a question people need them to say "If we are honoured by a mandate then etc etc etc". If he doesn't it's "look out he's power mad" or "overconfident" etc etc etc. No he's answering the question which is phrased from the point of view on what he would do if his party was in power. Can you imagine the outrage if Harper said something along the lines of what Martin said yesterday: "that they were on the rebound and we're going to bounce back all the way to victory". Martin says it and nothing. Martin isn't power mad and desperately wanting to hang onto powere at all but Harper is. Yeesh.

That said, no matter what the polls say I think it's easier to gauge the election by looking at what's happening on the ground. The Liberals haven't left the once assumed "safe liberal ridings" for 10-14 days, let alone try to shore up support in other areas. They are trying desperately to simply hold onto those safe ridings.

[ernie]

Originally Posted by Flame On

On Global they tried to corner Harper on abortion. He basically said it was not open for debate for his party.
But they pressed him. They asked him "never?" and he started saying "well never is a long time" etc. I don't think he was meaning that someday he'd revisit it. But a smarter response might have been "i've answered the question". Now some might think he is open to a review of it down the road.
Although that wasn't the Libs or Martin fear mongering perhaps some are starting to be more concerened and not perhaps by him but by the party.

The fact is the only MPs to have tried to put forth abortion legislation in recent years are Liberal MPs. It's been repeated over and over and over again but somehow it never sinks in. Both the Liberal and Conservative parties have members who want to make it illegal (same with same-sex marriage..there are 40 liberal candidates that are openly against same-sex marriage), and that there is no way you can stop a private member bill from being tabled. However, it is all but impossible for a private members bill that isn't on something trivial to ever become law. He has answered the other day that he would do eveything in his power as party leader to not allow aboriton to get tabled.

[ernie]

Originally Posted by The Goon

Last week, I was thinking the CPC was peaking too early, so this correction wasn't unexpected. Harper's been getting nailed on straying from the message somewhat. I thought he did a decent job on "Your Turn" on CBC last night, though.

I thought so to. Mansbridge didn't have to press him at all like he did with Martin and Layton who have a habit of not answering questions. Harper answered honestly and while people might not like to hear how politics works and just want to be told what they want to hear that isn't Harper. he isn't going to lie just to get a vote or two. he lays it on the table ans says take it or leave it. In fact that's his problem. He's relying on the average voter to actually be informed of where the parties stand on the issues. I can guarantee you that the average voter doesn't have a clue where the parties stand or what the fiscal policies are etc.

but what the heck was with the "You have one slogan in English Canada and another in Quebec so how can i trust you" question? Probably the stupidest question I've heard in a long long time.

[The Goon]

Originally Posted by ernie

but what the heck was with the "You have one slogan in English Canada and another in Quebec so how can i trust you" question? Probably the stupidest question I've heard in a long long time.

I was wondering how that question got approved to be asked, it was so silly. Ask any company who deals in English and French Canada, and I'm sure the slogans are different in the two areas.