PC Leadership Race- Redford wins.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Slava

I thought I would bump this as the vote and results are later today. I had some interesting discussions with people over the past few days, and I'm changing my prediction. Its a long story...but I don't know if Redford can make the top three after hearing about it. My guess for tonight:

1. Mar
2. Morton
3. Horner
4. Redford
5. Orman
6. Griffiths

Then Mar wins October 1st.

I have no idea what information you have, but I'm interested...

I'm voting in my first ever Alberta PC leadership today. I'm a bit homeless politically in this province, but I do think there's value in participation anyway.

I'll be voting for Mar.

[killer_carlson]

Originally Posted by First Lady

Except for the father reference, the same could have been said of Stelmach. Cabinet minister qualities don't always translate into leadership qualities.



Moderates will go to the moderate who remains on the ballot. If they don't and go to the "most likely to win"; it will be seen as opportunistic. I can't see Horner/Redford supporting each other in any scenerio.

Then again, this is the PC's and principles aren't part of the equation....

I hold memberships in both parties. I am a fiscal conservative.

If Horner does win, the WR will do whatever they can to paint him as Stelmach 2.0 - that isn't a secret. Horner's task will be to distinguish himself from that paintbrush.

My post was to clarify that Horner is not an "unknown". Politically he's right up there with Mar and Morton in terms of experience and visibility.

And as a final comment, save the pot shots. It does nothing except bring the entire process down (unless you're potshotting the NDP in Alberta, which is entirely fair game).

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by peter12

So, First Lady, what's with Wild Rose's almost complete malaise the past 12 months. You guys have really fallen off the map. Too bad. I had high hopes.

ma·laise   [ma-leyz, -muh-; Fr. ma-lez]
noun
1.
a condition of general bodily weakness or discomfort, often marking the onset of a disease.
2.
a vague or unfocused feeling of mental uneasiness, lethargy, or discomfort.

Yes, admittedly I'm not feeling all that well today and am house-bound. But I don't think you were asking about my personal health.

On the party front....Let's see....

We have 51 candidates, more than any other party.

We have 25,000 members. An all time high for the party.

Had a very successfully leaders tour this summer.

Any night of the week or weekends you can find Wildrose candidates door knocking.

This past week I attended 6 meetings in 4 nights (with CA's, Candidates & the Leader).



Granted, I have a skewed view, so perhaps you can expand on what you had expected to see from the party.

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by Slava

^Well that with a twist. I'll PM you though...

Would you PM or email me also. You have my EM address. I think I may know what you're referring to. Busing scandal?

[Slava]

^^I would guess that the PCs have more than 51 candidates. If not that could be rectified within a few weeks of the leadership.

Thats not to say that the Wildrose hasn't done a lot of work. I do think that alot of their work is going to pay off in seats....but I would guess they end up with about 15-20 at this point.

[jtfrogger]

Given where we are discussing this, I figured it would be worth noting that Harley Hotchkiss & Alan Markin both donated substantial money to Gary Mar: http://garymar.ca/donor-list/

Don't really mean much, I just found it interesting. I'm off to go vote now.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by Slava

^^I would guess that the PCs have more than 51 candidates. If not that could be rectified within a few weeks of the leadership.

Dave C has been doing an excellent job tracking this.

http://daveberta.ca/alberta-election/

You are right though. Theirs will get slotted in pretty quick. I suspect many without having to go through a nomination race.

Thats not to say that the Wildrose hasn't done a lot of work. I do think that alot of their work is going to pay off in seats....but I would guess they end up with about 15-20 at this point.

So many variables. I won't even hazard a prediction.

[Slava]

Those are some pretty bad numbers for the NDP, Liberals and Alberta Party. We all know an election is coming...and the Alberta Party has 6 candidates? Pathetic.

[Mean Mr. Mustard]

Originally Posted by Slava

^^I would guess that the PCs have more than 51 candidates. If not that could be rectified within a few weeks of the leadership.

Thats not to say that the Wildrose hasn't done a lot of work. I do think that alot of their work is going to pay off in seats....but I would guess they end up with about 15-20 at this point.

I think that you are being overly optimistic in your seat totals for the Wildrose Party, who I think benefited from Stelmach being viewed as a failure as a Premier more than anything else. Now that Stelmach is gone I think that a great deal of the Wildrose support base will erode as people gravitate back to a familiar political party. I think that it would be agreat success if they were able to get 6-8 seats

I think the vast majority of people who supported the WAP in the polls did so because they disapproved of the direction of the PCs, not because of approval of the WAP policies - many of which I view as being overly socially conservative, something that may play positively in the rural but will cost them big in the cities.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

If Horner does win, the WR will do whatever they can to paint him as Stelmach 2.0 - that isn't a secret. Horner's task will be to distinguish himself from that paintbrush.

Well, he does want to build a high-speed train.

(It's a bad idea - the money would be much better invested in rail within Calgary and Edmonton than between them.)

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by Slava

Those are some pretty bad numbers for the NDP, Liberals and Alberta Party. We all know an election is coming...and the Alberta Party has 6 candidates? Pathetic.

Yup. As early as Nov. 21 st.

[Mean Mr. Mustard]

Originally Posted by Slava

Those are some pretty bad numbers for the NDP, Liberals and Alberta Party. We all know an election is coming...and the Alberta Party has 6 candidates? Pathetic.

I am sure that they will get their numbers up and it is more a formality than anything else, especially for the main parties (NDP, Liberal and PC). I think that hanging your hat on having more candidates than any other party when there is no election called yet is a bit disingenuous.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by Agent86

WAP policies - many of which I view as being overly socially conservative,

Could you point those out to me? I'd like to read them.

[MoneyGuy]

I forecast Eddie's win last time around and won a small bet. He was third after the first ballot and did as I expected, picking up support from the defeated candidates. I could see Horner doing the same. He's very well respected within the party.

[Slava]

The latest poll I saw has the Wildrose at about 30% and has that translated to about 18 seats. Thats same poll gives six seats to the NDP, zero Liberals and Alberta Party...pretty grim. Its early for predictions of course, but always interesting!

Agent86 I know what you're saying about the number of candidates nominated...but really it takes A LOT of groundwork to win an election. If you are nominated and start campaigning now for a November election thats almost impossible (when you are an underdog to begin with, or a complete unknown). Incumbents don't have that concern though. They can afford the luxury of not being nominated for the most part.

[Mean Mr. Mustard]

Originally Posted by First Lady

Could you point those out to me? I'd like to read them.

Mainly the health care policy which seems to ignore primary health care for the most part rather there are vague comments in their policy stating how it isn't going to be American style health care. There is something about tax benefits for healthy lifestyle choices - however this for the most part benefits the people who are least likely to access the health care system.

There was nothing on increased education programs and all that was mentioned regarding long term care facilities was that they should be decentralized (not 100% sure as to what that means).

There is very little if anything about helping sustain a healthy population, especially for those who are at greatest risk of illness.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

I forecast Eddie's win last time around and won a small bet. He was third after the first ballot and did as I expected, picking up support from the defeated candidates. I could see Horner doing the same. He's very well respected within the party.

Well he has to make the top 3 first on today's vote. I'm not sure that will happen. Plus, I think for the 2nd round of voting many won't even mark a #2 choice given what happened last time.... everyone's 3 choice winning.

Originally Posted by Slava

Agent86 I know what you're saying about the number of candidates nominated...but really it takes A LOT of groundwork to win an election. If you are nominated and start campaigning now for a November election thats almost impossible (when you are an underdog to begin with, or a complete unknown). Incumbents don't have that concern though. They can afford the luxury of not being nominated for the most part.

Exactly. It's impossible to hit every door in a four week campaign. When Paul won the Glenmore by-election he managed to get to roughly 80% of the doors. It took him from June to Sept.

The earlier you can get your candidate in place the better.

[Mean Mr. Mustard]

Originally Posted by Slava

Agent86 I know what you're saying about the number of candidates nominated...but really it takes A LOT of groundwork to win an election. If you are nominated and start campaigning now for a November election thats almost impossible (when you are an underdog to begin with, or a complete unknown). Incumbents don't have that concern though. They can afford the luxury of not being nominated for the most part.

I would agree with this but if anyone can name the Wildrose Alliance candidate for their riding I would be amazed.

[Slava]

Bottomline is that if you're serious about winning you need to get nominated and get on doorsteps. The Alberta Party with 6 candidates, or Liberals with 14 are facing an uphill battle.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by Agent86

Mainly the health care policy which seems to ignore primary health care for the most part rather there are vague comments in their policy stating how it isn't going to be American style health care. There is something about tax benefits for healthy lifestyle choices - however this for the most part benefits the people who are least likely to access the health care system.

There was nothing on increased education programs and all that was mentioned regarding long term care facilities was that they should be decentralized (not 100% sure as to what that means).

There is very little if anything about helping sustain a healthy population, especially for those who are at greatest risk of illness.

I think Danielle has been pretty clear on not looking to the US for a healthcare model, but rather to some of the European ones that do work. Specifically, universal coverage (same as we have now), but with options on the delivery side.

None of what you have stated even remotely appears "overly socially conservative". So I ask again, where are these policies?