Two new polls have Tories way ahead... - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

transplant99 · 01-16-2006, 04:02 PM

Up 7 points in Ontario as well.

Quote:

The Strategic Counsel poll for CTV and the Globe and Mail newspaper put support for the Conservatives at 40 percent, with the Liberals far behind at 27 percent.

Separately, an EKOS Research Associates poll for The Toronto Star and La Presse showed the Conservatives had 38.6 percent support, compared with the Liberals at 27.2 percent. The NDP were at 18.6 percent.

The figures show the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals by 40 points to 33 points in the populous central province of Ontario, traditionally a Liberal stronghold.
And in the French-speaking province of Quebec, support for the Conservatives has risen so fast, they are now second to the separatist Bloc Quebecois.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060116/...itics_poll_col

transplant99 · 01-16-2006, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fotze

I still think they are going to crap the bed on this one.

Anything is possible in Canadian politics for sure.

But this is starting to look like a rout, though still unlikely to see a majority.

http://democraticspace.com/blog/seat...ational-polls/

MarchHare · 01-16-2006, 04:14 PM

Has there been a poll that asks people who indicate support for the Conservatives if they would switch their vote if it looked like the Conservatives would win a majority?

I think Canadians, by and large, want a change in power (myself included), but I still think many are wary of handing Harper a majority. If it looks like the Tories are going to win a majority on election day, it could very well mean many swing voters will end up voting Liberal or NDP instead. If I were a Conservative supporter, I'd be hoping the polls showed the Liberals and CPC neck-in-neck right now...

ken0042 · 01-16-2006, 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarchHare

If I were a Conservative supporter, I'd be hoping the polls showed the Liberals and CPC neck-in-neck right now...

There is another way of thinking about it; and that's thinking of the "sheep vote." How many people have no idea, are told by friends that they should vote, look at the polls and say to themselves "well, if most people think the conservatives should win, then I guess I should vote for them as they must be the best option."

transplant99 · 01-16-2006, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Has there been a poll that asks people who indicate support for the Conservatives if they would switch their vote if it looked like the Conservatives would win a majority?

Well MOST of these polls are using "decided voters" as their criteria.

Dont see enoughchanging their minds this late in the game to make a huge difference.

Not sure what % the undecided are at these days either.

Cowperson · 01-16-2006, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Has there been a poll that asks people who indicate support for the Conservatives if they would switch their vote if it looked like the Conservatives would win a majority?

I think Canadians, by and large, want a change in power (myself included), but I still think many are wary of handing Harper a majority. ...

Considering there is a Liberal dominated Senate that could block anything and everything truly loopy the fringe of the right might put forward, they shouldn't have too many concerns.

Having elected and appointed government officials handing out envelopes filled with taxpayer cash is scarier.

What's scary for the existence of the country is continued Liberal governments because people feel there is no viable alternative for voters to let off some steam every decade or so.

Cowperson

Winsor_Pilates · 01-16-2006, 04:40 PM

I was expecting the gap to slim as we got closer to D-day, but it looks like the lead just keeps getting bigger. I still think many people will switch to Lib at the last minute and the Conservatives will win a small minority.

Cowperson · 01-16-2006, 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

I was expecting the gap to slim as we got closer to D-day, but it looks like the lead just keeps getting bigger. I still think many people will switch to Lib at the last minute and the Conservatives will win a small minority.

Harper isn't crowing about a possible majority this time . . . . . unlike the last time when the same trend was in place.

Cowperson

FireFly · 01-16-2006, 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cowperson

Harper isn't crowing about a possible majority this time . . . . . unlike the last time when the same trend was in place.

Cowperson

IIRC it wasn't nearly as obvious last time who was in the lead. Harper spoke too soon and got the punt for it.

Shawnski · 01-16-2006, 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Has there been a poll that asks people who indicate support for the Conservatives if they would switch their vote if it looked like the Conservatives would win a majority?

Must have read 100,000 words of print today, and yes March, I saw something on that. Going by memory, the largest contingent was the NDP, whom had 11 % of their votes would vote strategically in the sitution you described. So that would translate into a possible 1.8% variance in total vote.... as the article I read indicated, overall, the numbers were quite small for strategic voting.

If I come across the article again, I will post it for you.

Shawnski · 01-16-2006, 05:01 PM

Ahhh, yes, it was the CTV story that covered it...

Quote:

The Strategic Counsel asked respondents about whether the prospect of a Tory victory on Jan. 23 might cause them to change their vote, in order to find out what percentage of each party's supporters might be "strategic voters" (change from Jan. 3-5 poll in brackets):

Liberals: 8 per cent (-2)
Conservatives: 5 per cent (-1)
NDP/Greens: 11 per cent (-3)
Bloc Quebecois: 3 per cent (-5)

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNew...ion2006&no_ads=

What I find interesting is that there would be more Liberals that would change their vote as compared to Cons (??). Would that indicate the soft Conservative vote is more than offset by Liberals who would switch to try to get a Conservative member elected?

Also, by all four groups going down in percentage, it looks like the voting choices are solidifying.

Resolute 14 · 01-16-2006, 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FireFly

IIRC it wasn't nearly as obvious last time who was in the lead. Harper spoke too soon and got the punt for it.

Klein didn't help matters much either.

Cowperson · 01-16-2006, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FireFly

IIRC it wasn't nearly as obvious last time who was in the lead. Harper spoke too soon and got the punt for it.

Uh, uh . . . . if it wasn't so obvious, why was our fearless new leader crowing about an impending majority?

Just crazy like everyone says?

Cowperson

FireFly · 01-16-2006, 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cowperson

Uh, uh . . . . if it wasn't so obvious, why was our fearless new leader crowing about an impending majority?

Just crazy like everyone says?

Cowperson

I knew you'd call me on that. What I meant to say was that the gap wasn't as pronounced as it is this time. And yes, he is crazy. I think it was more that he felt the Liberals had done so much wrong there was no way they would be re-elected. Either way, at least he learned to shut his yap this time. As much as I bleed Conservative Blue, I hate Harper.

CaptainCrunch · 01-16-2006, 08:19 PM

One nice thing about the lead is it certainly quieted Susan Smith down on CPAC.

I've never ever seen such an obnoxious woman in my life.

Hack&Lube · 01-16-2006, 09:38 PM

It doesn't matter, unless the votes are concentrated in the right ridings, the Conservatives could still crap this one.

transplant99 · 01-16-2006, 09:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hack&Lube

It doesn't matter, unless the votes are concentrated in the right ridings, the Conservatives could still crap this one.

Huh?

They are projecting, riding by riding, to score somewhere between 135-150 seats.

http://democraticspace.com/blog/seat...ational-polls/

calculoso · 01-16-2006, 11:06 PM

Depends on who you use as a source:

http://www.electionprediction.org/2005_fed/index.html

Conservatives: 97
Liberals: 77
Bloc: 51
NDP: 17
Too Close to call: 66

FlamesAddiction · 01-16-2006, 11:13 PM

Can the NDP and Liberals form a coalition if the Conservatives win? And if so, would they?

I've been convinced for some time now that the Conservatives will win. Even though I disagree with most of their platform, they probably deserve to win.

MarchHare · 01-17-2006, 08:28 AM

Quote:

Can the NDP and Liberals form a coalition if the Conservatives win? And if so, would they?

Only if they combined for more seats than the Conservatives. If you had, say, 120 Conservatives, 119 Liberal, 33 NDP, that would give the Libs/NDP enough to form a coalition majority. It's extremely unlikely that will happen, though.

I'm more interested in seeing who the Conservatives will look to for support should they end up in a minority situation. Clearly not the NDP, and if they allied themselves with the Bloc, they'd be opening up themselves to all kinds of criticism for getting in bed with the separatists and the like. The most logical choice is the Liberals -- oh the irony!

Quote:

I've been convinced for some time now that the Conservatives will win. Even though I disagree with most of their platform, they probably deserve to win.

I'll go you one further and say I even want the Conservatives to win (I'm both a liberal and a Liberal).

Of course, I want the Conservatives to be held in check by a weak minority, but I really think the Liberals need some time in opposition to clean house, renew the party, bring in a new leader (hopefully Frank McKenna), then trounce the Conservatives in the next election.