Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[chemgear]

Hehe, I did see that. But the last few weeks have been awash of such articles in many newspapers. Heck, even the National Post/Financial Post had "Housing Bubble" in their "What's Hot" ticker at the top of their webpage for the last few weeks.

Mainstream media seems to be reporting it more and more, especially with the nice high debt loads silly people are bulking up on.

With the inflation numbers out today, the interesting times continue!

http://business.financialpost.com/20...flation-jumps/



I've gotten my massive oil price raise for the year, has everybody else?


(I'll post up my usual month summary when things close off in a few days - sorry for slacking WP, hehe!)

[Travis Munroe]

Anyone else surprised by this article and Calgary's small role?
http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...693/story.html

CALGARY — Canadians spent $23 billion on renovations in 2010 and a survey of the country’s major metropolitan areas says Calgary households were the least likely last year to do work on their homes.

Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...#ixzz1QgqJ2mOs

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

Anyone else surprised by this article and Calgary's small role?
http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...693/story.html

Calgary households were the least likely last year to do work on their homes.

This could be because Calgary homes were mostly built quite recently, relative to other cities.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

Anyone else surprised by this article and Calgary's small role?
http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...693/story.html

I'm not too surprised with the lack of government rebate this year.

That and the record household debt levels . . .

[Travis Munroe]

So one would then ask, are Calgarian's being the smartest with their money and not over extending themselves with the recovery?

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by troutman

Calgary households were the least likely last year to do work on their homes.

This could be because Calgary homes were mostly built quite recently, relative to other cities.

Or their house was already renovated to the nines during the boom.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

So one would then ask, are Calgarian's being the smartest with their money and not over extending themselves with the recovery?

Since 2008 I cannot say, but prior to 2008 I'd argue that we were probably the worst abusers of over extending. Somehow having huge incomes comparatively couldn't save us from higher default rates. More money just meant larger mortgages. When I hear people talk about 'the next boom' or 'boom 2.0' I just imagine that no one learned a thing.

http://investdb1.theglobeandmail.com...10293/GIStory/

A growing number of homeowners in Alberta are struggling to meet their mortgage payments as Calgary suffers a six-year real estate decline that is only recently showing signs of improvement.
Homeowners in the province are nearly twice as likely to fall behind than those in the rest of Canada. And the proportion struggling to make mortgage payments is the highest it has been since at least 1990, according to fresh data from the Canadian Bankers Association.

Another article referencing a Canadian Housing Bubble:

http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...#ixzz1QgYaq4pD

[chemgear]

Yup, now CBC is even running with the story too:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stor...economics.html

This one is a bit of a painful wall of text though:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle2079775/

Probably the biggest reason why Mr. Carney did not mention the possibility of a bubble is that its presence isn’t a necessary condition for warning Canadians about the importance of preparing themselves for a significant decline in housing prices in the medium term. If small decreases in interest rates can produce large increases, then small increases in interest rates -- and such increases are inevitable -- can also generate large reductions in house prices.


At the end of the day if you're not in a rush, it seems like there isn't much upside to prices. At best things stay flat (even high oil prices/wages in Calgary and wicked low interest rates, sales numbers are still pretty pathetic overall.) Seems like there is a lot more weight on the downside for the next little while at least.

Personally, I'm really looking at the whole Greece/PIIGS situation, now that is some interesting stuff to watch progressing.

[Winsor_Pilates]

June is looking like it will be the fist month to show year over year increases for both single family & condos since in 14 months.

Calgary Herald Story

[chemgear]

Looks like the June numbers are in:

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...te-statistics/

Mike still to add the graphs but some of the older ones are still useful. Sales are up a bit versus last year but pending sales numbers are already coming down close to 2010 again - down to 325 now. I'm guessing it'll be coming down further for the rest of the year already from the looks of it.

Interesting considering how low interest rates continue to be, oil prices and wages being so high, and unemployment being so low already.




Hehe, the inevitable comparisons versus the brutal 2010 (worst in a decade) numbers also seems kinda like proudly shouting:

"Look at me! I'm faster than the entire field of sprinters . . . from the special olympics."

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Hehe, the inevitable comparisons versus the brutal 2010 (worst in a decade) numbers also seems kinda like proudly shouting:

"Look at me! I'm faster than the entire field of sprinters . . . from the special olympics."

You should be a Realtor with the way you twist things.

This whole year, you've been quick to compare every month to 2010 & say "Look, we're still like the slowest year in a decade!!"

Now that there's a month with a 30% increase over last year, and you want to avoid the comparison.

[Shazam]

I just think of him now as chicken little... No real useful information provided, no actions recommended, might as well just wait until the sky falls....

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

You should be a Realtor with the way you twist things.

This whole year, you've been quick to compare every month to 2010 & say "Look, we're still like the slowest year in a decade!!"

Now that there's a month with a 30% increase over last year, and you want to avoid the comparison.

Heyhey, not ALL realtors twist things!!!

Hehe, not at all - you are right, numbers are (materially) higher than they were in 2010. The link from Mike F shows the comparisons over the years (I didn't link that as he was in the process of adding the graphs during the weekend.)



We're exactly the same as in 2002 - though I'm not sure how many fewer people Calgary had back then. I would also assume interest rates are much lower now than back then as well. Given the population difference now, interest rates, high wages/bonuses with oil prices - I would have expected it to be higher?

The pending sales graph also shows that sales will continue to be slightly higher than the 2010 year certainly for the next while though it has peaked and is dropping closer already (as would be expected seasonally.)

Originally Posted by Shazam

I just think of him now as chicken little... No real useful information provided, no actions recommended, might as well just wait until the sky falls....

Haha, I wasn't aware I should be giving any recommendations to anybody. Really? I kinda like seeing Mike F's monthly stats - I would think it's useful information. Maybe not for everybody I guess, fair enough.

Anyhow, I just like to look at the news, the stats and thinking out loud. I'm glad for the discussion and items that I don't happen to come across that the thread shows me.

I'm also glad the thread gets some good discussion/news these days rather than the silly personal attacks several months ago.

[chemgear]

Speaking of information - some very minor interest rate increases incoming tomorrow:

http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/a.../04/c3045.html

0.10 to 0.15 increases to fixed rates

[Winsor_Pilates]

A big part of the increased June is likely due to the late Spring we had this year. The "spring rush" came later than usual this year.

[chemgear]

Mike has another update for the first part of this month. Pending sales appear to continue to be trending down since peaking for the year - now down to 310 currently. Still certainly higher than 2010 as WP noted, still kinda tame considering the low interest rates and the low unemployment/high oil prices.

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...market-update/

Sales for the first week of July were above last year’s levels with 240 properties selling compared to 183 (+31%). However, aside from comparison to a lackluster 2010, July’s start was the slowest going back to at least 2002.


On a side note, is it just me or did mls.ca shift to a slightly different mapping program recently?

[chemgear]

The July numbers are in:

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/

As mentioned before, sales numbers are indeed higher than the poor showing from last year. (2010 was apparently the worst in a decade, 2011 so far looks to be 2nd worst?)

Year to date, 2011 is about 7% higher than last year.

Still kinda surprised that it's not a lot higher given oil prices, employment rates, and really low interest rates. The recent census results also shows that Calgary has grown about 25% over the last decade as well.

[chemgear]

Mike F did some research a while back about how the high-end market really didn't track the overall market activity a while back. He's got a new update:

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...es-resurgence/

Interesting how in the worst (and second worst?) years in a decade for sales overall, the high-end market seems to be doing very well - helps out the averaged prices too.


On the flip side, ATB came out with a small release about why mortgage arrears is so much higher in Alberta than the rest of Canada:

http://www.industrymailout.com/Indus...2-AUG-2011.pdf

[chemgear]

Some sidebar updates (the stock market is much more . . . interesting.)


Home starts down substantially from even last year:

http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...723/story.html

According to data released today by CMHC, July starts in Calgary were down -43.6% from the previous year.

Mike has his usual updates again for the first portion of August. As Winsor_Pilates pointed out earlier, 2011 is clearly better than 2010 for what it is worth - as it appears that it could be just the 2nd worst in a decade for sales:

http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...market-update/

The good: SFH sales for the first week of August were 22% higher than last year.
The bad: Other than 2010, it was the slowest August start in a decade.

[ranchlandsselling]

Been looking around MLS recently as I'm probably a year or so away from buying another place. From an exchange on the Realtor forum we discussed a house that sold for 161k in 1983, 344k in 2004 and is listed for 670k in 2011 (now). Does that not seem insane?

I bought a townhouse for $350k in 2008 a few months after we had come down from the high. That seemed okay. In 2009 it seemed crappy, 2010 so,so, 2011 a bit better. I knew it had appreciated substantially in the recent years and was okay with that.

Now looking to upgrade and to finding a nice house that I could have bought in 04 for less than my townhouse that I'm now thinking holy crap I paid too much.