Conservatives surge to majority territory

[Cheese]

Could it be?

Support for the Conservatives surged in an opinion poll published on Tuesday, opening up for the first time the possibility that they could win a majority in the January 23 election.
La Presse newspapers, showed the Conservatives have the support of 39.1 percent of Canadian voters, with the ruling Liberal Party running a distant second at 26.8 percent.

[jimmy11]

Man, I hate the Toronto Star. Under the headline "Tories head for majority" they go on and on about the recent poll results, none of which point to a majority (according to Harper and Martin).

This is an atempt by the Liberal loving media in this country to scare voters to the Liberals, just like last election. I think it's shameless.

[Cowperson]

Originally Posted by jimmy11

Man, I hate the Toronto Star. Under the headline "Tories head for majority" they go on and on about the recent poll results, none of which point to a majority (according to Harper and Martin).

This is an atempt by the Liberal loving media in this country to scare voters to the Liberals, just like last election. I think it's shameless.

Chatting up the Tories is an attempt to defeat them? That's a pretty convoluted way to look at it.

What's lacking this time is Harper chortling publicly about forming a majority government . . . . that put a lot of people off in the last election and the polls sank as a result.

Harper needs to stay humble on this news.

Cowperson

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

I dunno Cheese, I haven't seen any province by province or riding by riding breakdowns of hte polls but it seems to me that 39% of the vote across the country is likely enough to win a majority. in 2000 the liberals won a majority (172 of 301 seats) with only 40.8% of the vote, granted the right votes were split between PC and Canadian Alliance but you never know. And they won 135 seats (just 19 short of a majority) in 2004 with only 36.7 % of the vote. A few more points and it could very well be a Conservative majority, albeit a small one.

[Resolute 14]

The most important stat is what the Conservatives are doing in Ontario right now.

When the election was called, the Liberals were polling as much as 15 points higher than the Conservatives. Most of the latest polls have the two parties dead even.

Wonder if Belinda Stronach is getting nervous?

[transplant99]

When the election was called, the Liberals were polling as much as 15 points higher than the Conservatives. Most of the latest polls have the two parties dead even.

Actually the last two ive read have the cons ahead by 6 and 8 points.

[Resolute 14]

Nationally, or in Ontario?

http://www.nodice.ca/elections/canada/polls-ontario.php

Most of the polls listed on nodice show the conservatives even to +1. Though as I read closer, Ipsos-Reid, Decima and Leger are now showing 5-8 pojnt leads.

Wonder how this will look when polls conducted post-debates are released?

[transplant99]

Both.

this one by decima...

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?t=19846

[Resolute 14]

This is kinda neat:
http://democraticspace.com/blog/seat...ational-polls/

The chart for Alberta specifically is kinda funny. Conservative sweep?

According to these guys, the CPC is even in danger of winning a seat or two in Quebec.

[Table 5]

just sent in my special ballot today....needless to say I won't be affecting the race between the Liberals and the Conservatives.

[jimmy11]

Originally Posted by Cowperson

Chatting up the Tories is an attempt to defeat them? That's a pretty convoluted way to look at it.

What's lacking this time is Harper chortling publicly about forming a majority government . . . . that put a lot of people off in the last election and the polls sank as a result.

Harper needs to stay humble on this news.

Cowperson

The problem is that it's not Harper musing about a majority that is scary... it is the very prospect of such a parliament where the Conservatives can pass anything they want. Even if Harper plays it down, The Toronto Star putting this concept out there will scare people back to the Liberals. Every one I have spoken to out here at Queen's is saying this headline is bad for the Tories, even though the numbers are not.

If you look at the polls, people are quite comfortable with a Con minority, but are very uncomfortable with a Conservative majority.

This is an attempt to slow Harper momentum down. We will see if it works...

[MarchHare]

This is an attempt to slow Harper momentum down. We will see if it works...

Are you really suggesting that reporting poll results is a conspiricy by the liberal Eastern media to harm the Tories?

I agree with you that part of the recent surge in CPC support voters are growing more comfortable with the idea of a Conservative minority (myself included) but many don't want to see a Harper-led majority. I think you're delving into tin-foil hat territory if you think reporting this news is some kind of attempt to hurt the CPC.

[Hakan]

The conservatives aren't polling anywhere near majority territory if you look at the regional breakdowns. I tell you, the amount of armchair experts around here is just funny.

Say the Conservatives pull off a miracle of 5 seats in Quebec then they would need another 151 of a possible 256 in the rest of Canada, with 105 of those seats being in Ontario 32 in Atlantic 54 in the prairies and 35 in BC and 3 in the NWT. If you give them all of the prairies and say 30 in BC then they're at 84 and they need to make another 67 in Ont and Atlantic. Give them 16 in Atlantic which is generous and they need 51 in Ontario. Sorry 51 seats in Ontario just ain't going to happen.

Therefore these polls numbers are skewed from landslides in the west but not the reality in the East.

[jimmy11]

MarchHare:

No, not at all. I am saying the placing of misleading headlines (it is misleading because the bloc has basically ensured that noone is going to get a majority) in an attempt to scare people away from the Liberals is bush league journalism.

I would have no problem with the story if it didn't have such a misleading headline.

[The Goon]

Originally Posted by Snakeeye

Wonder if Belinda Stronach is getting nervous?

She can always just switch back.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Hakan

The conservatives aren't polling anywhere near majority territory if you look at the regional breakdowns. I tell you, the amount of armchair experts around here is just funny.

Say the Conservatives pull off a miracle of 5 seats in Quebec then they would need another 151 of a possible 256 in the rest of Canada, with 105 of those seats being in Ontario 32 in Atlantic 54 in the prairies and 35 in BC and 3 in the NWT. If you give them all of the prairies and say 30 in BC then they're at 84 and they need to make another 67 in Ont and Atlantic. Give them 16 in Atlantic which is generous and they need 51 in Ontario. Sorry 51 seats in Ontario just ain't going to happen.

Therefore these polls numbers are skewed from landslides in the west but not the reality in the East.

I'm not so certain that 51 seats in Ontario is out of the question for the Conservatives, depending on how moderate thier message is in the next two weeks, thier sitting at about a third plus in the poles which could translate to 50 out of 151 seats.

I think if the Liberal's throw out negative attack ads a lot of the voters are going to throw thier hands in the air and the voter totals will buckle for the Libs in Ontario.

[Bobblehead]

Originally Posted by Snakeeye

This is kinda neat:
http://democraticspace.com/blog/seat...ational-polls/

Interesting the the Greens are considered a major party on that site.



EDIT: Where does Harper live? According to this article, he voted somewhere in Ontario; are Politicians considered to live in Ottawa?

[duncan]

The media reported an actual shift in public opinion....... the biased *******s. Imagine that, reporting facts about a subject that a majority of people are intersted in. They should have omitted these facts.

[jimmy11]

Originally Posted by duncan

The media reported an actual shift in public opinion....... the biased *******s. Imagine that, reporting facts about a subject that a majority of people are intersted in. They should have omitted these facts.

OR they could have simply reported the facts under a headline that is actually FACTUAL!

It's not that hard to understand, is it?

[duncan]

Originally Posted by jimmy11

OR they could have simply reported the facts under a headline that is actually FACTUAL!

It's not that hard to understand, is it?

The headline was that the Conservatives were headed toward a majority government, which by the pace they are gaining ground, they are. They have gained 6 percent while the Liberals have dropped 5%. EKOS found the Conservatives hold 39.1%, Chretian's last majority, was a whopping 40.85%. The CPC has had support grown dramatically, with it closing in at 43% in Ontario, smells like a brewing majority to me. These are all FACTUAL. Now, if they had of lied, and declared that their numbers showed support leaning back to the Liberals, people grasping at straws, would have claimed they were promoting the Liberals, rounding up the troups.
Every polling group, is reporting this trend, so it must be a ploy. They reported a common prediction, is that hard to understand?