The cupboards ARE bare

[boogerz]

Originally Posted by fanman

The Flames have just recently started to make a few of those riskier picks, Howse being a prime example. But I would also like to see them make a few more of those. .

Sutter had started to in 08 and 09 drafts, and then stopped last draft(except for Holland) by getting a bunch of safer players in Leach, Arnold, Ramage, etc when higher boom/bust, skilled players like Sundher, Donskoii, Pulkkinen, Kabanov, Kuhnhackl, Shugg, etc were still on the board.

I'm with you though. Hopefully Feaster realizes the error of Sutter's ways, and picks some skilled prospects


*crosses fingers for Bartschi*

[hkstylez]

This is a long shot, but Joacim Eriksson was not re-signed by the Flyers and he will be entering the draft this year. If the Flames pick him up, would he be ahead of Karlsson and Irving in the Depth Chart and hopefully a possible backup for Kipper?

[Caged Great]

He would likely be even with Irving, ahead of Ortio, but behind of Karlsson.

I'd definitely think about taking him with our 4th.

[Caged Great]

I think the best thing that the Flames could do is to try and trade anything for picks and prospects to fill the cupboard. Don't trade Iginla of course, but basically make everything else available.

It'll also free up spots for us to take gambles on some 2nd hand players like Stewart or Grabner.

Our current contract situation gets a lot easier after this year, so it would make sense to move out as many non long term pieces if we can try to fix our farm system.

We could possibly have 20 million free after next year (Langkow, Hagman, Jokinen, Moss, Kostopolous, Jackman, and Sarich make about 15 between them so trading a Regehr or Kipper would push it close to 20)

[The Original FFIV]

Originally Posted by sworkhard

Most teams consider a good draft year one where 2 of thier picks conistently make the NHL, anything above that is great. 07 has 2 NHLers in it, so that's good (granted, not all of them are getting thier chances with the flames, but that's a whole nother argument and is more pro-scouting than amateur scouting). 08 has 3 that have played NHL games, and likely will play more NHL games in the future. Again, seems decent. Granted there aren't really great prospects from what we can see right now outside of Tim Erixon (I know he left, but he was still our pick) and Backlund, but only time will tell how the last drafts will pan out. However, there are at least 2 good or bonafide prospects/players in the last 4 years.

You can take any team in the league and point out the players they missed. Generally you have to look at the players taken within 2 picks either way if you want a good comparison of players they potentially missed. When you start dropping several rounds, you get into the issues that 30 other teams missed them for a few rounds as well.

Every team measures success differently - 2 nhlers per draft? By this logic, if you consistently draft 4th liners and 6-7th dmen, then you're successful, right?

What irks me is drafting prospects that aren't signed and get thrown back into the draft. Maybe it is something where the Flames aren't willing to invest in developing talent and if they don't see anything at that specific period in time, back into the draft you go.

Heck, 20/20 hindsight, would have like the Flames to draft one of Roy/Pasquale in 2009 in addition to Orito as these two players stand a chance to make the NHL - which is more to say than what the Flames think of Bjorklund/Bennett. Yes, we would have groaned with more goalies in the system, but if one of them developed into a starting or backup G that we developed (and did not trade for/sign as a FA), I think it would have been a coup for the organization.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by The Original FFIV

Not going to go on further as it has been discussed at length but I don't like to see acceptance of mediocrity and excuses for the scouts not doing their job.

Sounds like you expect the scouts to always have drafted the best player with hindsight. That just isn't a realistic expectation. The best drafting teams in the league don't get their 1st rounders 100% right all the time. Expecting perfection is completely unrealistic. Sounds like you need to lower your expectations to a reasonable level.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by boogerz

Sutter had started to in 08 and 09 drafts, and then stopped last draft(except for Holland) by getting a bunch of safer players in Leach, Arnold, Ramage, etc when higher boom/bust, skilled players like Sundher, Donskoii, Pulkkinen, Kabanov, Kuhnhackl, Shugg, etc were still on the board.

I'm with you though. Hopefully Feaster realizes the error of Sutter's ways, and picks some skilled prospects


*crosses fingers for Bartschi*

Actually, Kabanov got selected immediately after Reinhart. Would you still want Kavanov over Reinhart now?

Every single one of those players listed - Leach, Arnold, Ramage - look to be NHL'ers. Sure, there is absolutely NOTHING proven until they make it, but seemingly at first for Flames fans it was a 'disappointing' draft. Now I look at that draft as quite the feat, and really curious to see how many of those players actually pan out.

I do understand what you are saying - you want a 'flash in the pan' high risk/high reward type. However, there just aren't many of those players that actually make it. The high reward/low risk are franchise players. Low reward/low risk are the role players, and the low reward/high risk guys generally don't make it to far - i.e. Pavel Brendl. Those players often be the ones that usually never make it to the NHL, or become 'exciting' for their amazing skills, but seemingly bounce around (Zherdev in Philly, Shirokov in Van SEEMINGLY one of these too.).

I do think Sutter has made terrible selections in the past, especially at certain rounds (Chucko and Pelech spring to mind), but it really appears that drafting vastly improved in the last few drafts.

[The Original FFIV]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Sounds like you expect the scouts to always have drafted the best player with hindsight. That just isn't a realistic expectation. The best drafting teams in the league don't get their 1st rounders 100% right all the time. Expecting perfection is completely unrealistic. Sounds like you need to lower your expectations to a reasonable level.

If you read my post, I'm just putting it out there that the scouts haven't done a stellar job in the past 4 drafts as someone else stated. Yes, they got it right with Backlund in '087 which I give them credit for but if you look over the past 4-7 drafts there have been more misses than hits. I don't expect the scouts to draft the best player all the time, I was just using specific examples to show that our drafting hasn't been the best, which ultimately falls on the scouting department. Yes, not all 1st rounders work out but sometimes 3 and 4th rounders do, which has been few and far between with us and our scouts. Nowhere do I say that I expect perfection from the scouting department - not sure where you are drawing this from. Don't mind being called out on my post and enjoy dialogue but as a friendly note, try not to be so condescending by telling me I need to lower my expectations.

[The Original FFIV]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

Actually, Kabanov got selected immediately after Reinhart. Would you still want Kavanov over Reinhart now?

Every single one of those players listed - Leach, Arnold, Ramage - look to be NHL'ers. Sure, there is absolutely NOTHING proven until they make it, but seemingly at first for Flames fans it was a 'disappointing' draft. Now I look at that draft as quite the feat, and really curious to see how many of those players actually pan out.

I do understand what you are saying - you want a 'flash in the pan' high risk/high reward type. However, there just aren't many of those players that actually make it. The high reward/low risk are franchise players. Low reward/low risk are the role players, and the low reward/high risk guys generally don't make it to far - i.e. Pavel Brendl. Those players often be the ones that usually never make it to the NHL, or become 'exciting' for their amazing skills, but seemingly bounce around (Zherdev in Philly, Shirokov in Van SEEMINGLY one of these too.).

I do think Sutter has made terrible selections in the past, especially at certain rounds (Chucko and Pelech spring to mind), but it really appears that drafting vastly improved in the last few drafts.

It would have been refreshing to say the least if the Flames would have gone against tradition and selected Kabanov, who has substantially more offensive talent than Reinhart. This is a kid who would play on your top 2 lines, and it would be a stretch to say the same about Reinhart, who may develop into a very good #3 center, player that we seem to be good at stocking up on (Wahl/Arnold/Nemisz could all develop into this type of player). This is where the Flames may need to take a progressive approach and hire a player development coach like the Canucks have to work with these prospects to help them along in their professional careers.

Nothing against Reinhart, I do hope that he develops and eventually contributes to the Flames. However, it would have been interesting to see the Flames select Kabanov with their 1st 3rd rounder and Reinhart with their 2nd 3rd rounder (presuming that Reinhart would still be avaialble). While we need hard working two way forwards and steady 5-6 defencemen, we also need top 6 forwards and top pairing defencemen. I believe the fan base would have no issues with the Flames occasionally (repeat, occasionally) swinging for the fences to get this type of player.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

Actually, Kabanov got selected immediately after Reinhart. Would you still want Kavanov over Reinhart now?

Every single one of those players listed - Leach, Arnold, Ramage - look to be NHL'ers. Sure, there is absolutely NOTHING proven until they make it, but seemingly at first for Flames fans it was a 'disappointing' draft. Now I look at that draft as quite the feat, and really curious to see how many of those players actually pan out.

I do understand what you are saying - you want a 'flash in the pan' high risk/high reward type. However, there just aren't many of those players that actually make it. The high reward/low risk are franchise players. Low reward/low risk are the role players, and the low reward/high risk guys generally don't make it to far - i.e. Pavel Brendl. Those players often be the ones that usually never make it to the NHL, or become 'exciting' for their amazing skills, but seemingly bounce around (Zherdev in Philly, Shirokov in Van SEEMINGLY one of these too.).

I do think Sutter has made terrible selections in the past, especially at certain rounds (Chucko and Pelech spring to mind), but it really appears that drafting vastly improved in the last few drafts.

a lot of analysis of calgary's drafting strategy has been made over the course of the last few years...obviously, there is some luck involved in any draft...

but the notion of Calgary making the 'safe' pick has always kinda bothered me.

How many of those 'safe' picks have actually made it onto our roster? seems like there is an abundance of 'safe' guys floating around as UFAs, so why expend a draft pick on someone with a low ceiling?

i also don't buy the revisionists changing Sutter's drafting philosophy to start in 08: he was the GM since 2005. The drafting might have gotten better of late, but its hard to tell at this point.

[sworkhard]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

a lot of analysis of calgary's drafting strategy has been made over the course of the last few years...obviously, there is some luck involved in any draft...

but the notion of Calgary making the 'safe' pick has always kinda bothered me.

How many of those 'safe' picks have actually made it onto our roster? seems like there is an abundance of 'safe' guys floating around as UFAs, so why expend a draft pick on someone with a low ceiling?

i also don't buy the revisionists changing Sutter's drafting philosophy to start in 08: he was the GM since 2005. The drafting might have gotten better of late, but its hard to tell at this point.

Who said it started in 08? Sutter was full time GM in 2006. It's also not revisionist. It's well documented that when he first became part time GM several years before that, the flames had 3 amateur scouts total. Sutter almost tripled the size of the scouting Fepartment of the next couple of years. Then, when he became full time GM in 2006, he made further changes, completely re-evaluated the department, and changed thier main focus to smart players. The first pick made under this philosiphy was Mikael Backlund. He's had decent progression so far, and looks like he might actually end up becoming a #1 (although not franchise) centre in 2-4 years. Kieth Aulie is also hailed as a smart player, although he doesn't have the skill level like some other players, he's smart enough to improve his skills and use the ones he as to make up for the ones he's not as great at.

People need to be patient with the players we pick. We can Judge the 03-05 drafts reasonably well now, and say they weren't good. The 06 draft still has Irving who the flames expect will make the NHL in a year or two and eventually play a significant role on the team. It also wasn't a good draft if he's the only one that makes it.

The 07 to present drafts cant really be judged yet. This is the last year for most for the signed players ELC and although two of the players have made the NHL, we don't know where they will top out yet. As a 22 year old, Backlund has solidified himself as a 3rd liner that thinks quick enough to play with Iggy and Tanguay and have success. He needs to work on some things yet, but he seems to be dedicated to getting better which bodes well for him and for the Flames.

Edit: I wish I could find the articles again, but here were some articles from 06 or 07 where Button talked about how Sutter revamped the scouting once he became full time GM. They were from a local Calgary newpaper IIRC. More recently, Jay Feaster talked about how small the scouting department was when Sutter took over and how much he increased it's size.

[The Original FFIV]

Originally Posted by sworkhard

Who said it started in 08? Sutter was full time GM in 2006. When he first became part time GM several years before that, the flames had 3 amateur scouts total. Sutter almost tripled the size of the scouting Fepartment of the next couple of years. Then, when he became full time GM in 2006, he made further changes, completely re-evaluated the department, and changed thier main focus to smart players with skill. The first pick made under this philosiphy was Mikael Backlund. He's had decent progression so far, and looks like he might actually end up becoming a #1 (although not franchise) centre in 2-4 years. Kieth Aulie is also hailed as a smart player, although he doesn't have the skill level like some other players, he's smart enough to improve his skills and use the ones he as to make up for the ones he's not as great at.

People need to be patient with the players we pick. We can Judge the 03-05 drafts reasonably well now, and say they weren't good. The 06 draft still has Irving who the flames expect will make the NHL in a year or two and eventually play a significant role on the team. It also wasn't a good draft if he's the only one that makes it.

The 07 to present drafts cant really be judged yet. This is the last year for most for the signed players ELC and although two of the players have made the NHL, we don't know where they will top out yet. As a 22 year old, Backlund has solidified himself as a 3rd liner that thinks quick enough to play with Iggy and Tanguay and have success. He needs to work on some things yet, but he seems to dedicated to getting better which bodes well for him and for the Flames.

You can partially judge the '07 drafts onwards. We have had some prospects from these drafts go unsigned and re-enter the draft both in '08/'09. If 2 out of your 7 picks (as is the case in '09) do not even warrant a contract offer, questions need to be raised. Not saying that every player we draft has to go on to play in the NHL, but we should should be drafting prospects who show some promise of playing at a professional level (whether it be NHL or AHL) with minimal prospects not being signed due to stalled development/limited potential to play in our system.

[JiriHrdina]

^Almost every team let's players go without signing them since teams now have to abide by the 50 max contract rule. Not signing a couple of late round draft picks 2 years after the fact is not something that worries me at all. In fact I would say in the past the Flames have been guilty of signing too many guys how probably didn't justify it.

[sworkhard]

Originally Posted by The Original FFIV

You can partially judge the '07 drafts onwards. We have had some prospects from these drafts go unsigned and re-enter the draft both in '08/'09. If 2 out of your 7 picks (as is the case in '09) do not even warrant a contract offer, questions need to be raised. Not saying that every player we draft has to go on to play in the NHL, but we should should be drafting prospects who show some promise of playing at a professional level (whether it be NHL or AHL) with minimal prospects not being signed due to stalled development/limited potential to play in our system.

That's true. I wonder how that compares to other teams? On one hand it's dissapointing that a couple of picks didn't develop as expected, on the other hand, I don't think you can expect to sign them all every year. It's better to not give contracts to players that don't justify it, than to give get stuck later on at the contract limit and not be able to sign a more highly touted play because the contract limit got in the way (which happens. It's part of the excuse the Flyers gave for not offering thier best prospect a contract).

[The Original FFIV]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

^Almost every team let's players go without signing them since teams now have to abide by the 50 max contract rule. Not signing a couple of late round draft picks 2 years after the fact is not something that worries me at all. In fact I would say in the past the Flames have been guilty of signing too many guys how probably didn't justify it.

6th and 7th rounders I get, but 4ths and 5ths? Also, believe minor pro only contracts (AHL or ECHL) do not count against the 50 contract limit, correct me if I'm wrong.

If a team is knee deep in talented prospects, I can see not every draft pick being signed. This is not the case here, and should put more onus on the scouts to come up with prospects who can/will play in our system, ranging from the ECHL to the NHL level.

[The Original FFIV]

Originally Posted by sworkhard

That's true. I wonder how that compares to other teams? On one hand it's dissapointing that a couple of picks didn't develop as expected, on the other hand, I don't think you can expect to sign them all every year. It's better to not give contracts to players that don't justify it, than to give get stuck later on at the contract limit and not be able to sign a more highly touted play because the contract limit got in the way (which happens. It's part of the excuse the Flyers gave for not offering thier best prospect a contract).

Believe a couple ways around this - offer minor pro contracts which don't count against the rule and/or draft more NCAA prospects, where you retain their rights longer. Would like to see better asset management from the new regime.

[sworkhard]

Originally Posted by The Original FFIV

6th and 7th rounders I get, but 4ths and 5ths? Also, believe minor pro only contracts (AHL or ECHL) do not count against the 50 contract limit, correct me if I'm wrong.

If a team is knee deep in talented prospects, I can see not every draft pick being signed. This is not the case here, and should put more onus on the scouts to come up with prospects who can/will play in our system, ranging from the ECHL to the NHL level.

Your right that AHL contracts don't count against the 50 contract limit, but I'm pretty sure you can only offer NHL contracts to drafted prospects. If a prospect goes back to the draft and is undrafted or after two years is unsigned again, then they can be offered an AHL contract AFAIK. I could be wrong on this piont, but I'm pretty sure that's the way it works. Either that's how it works, or the players almost never accept them when they can go back to the draft and have a chance of getting a Pro Contract.

Our team in knee deep in less talented prospects. If they had a lot of talented ones, then signing some of the grinder types with a bit of upside to NHL contracts might make more sense. Right now they are trying to create some space under the contract limit for future aquisitions, which makes a lot of sense seeing we have a lot of expiring contacts in 2012. If this team is out of the playoff hunt at the trade deadline, a trade for a good prospect could be delayed, or not go through at all, if they have too many contracts. I'm all for giving them minor pro contracts if that's possible, but I'm not sure it is.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by The Original FFIV

6th and 7th rounders I get, but 4ths and 5ths? Also, believe minor pro only contracts (AHL or ECHL) do not count against the 50 contract limit, correct me if I'm wrong.

If a team is knee deep in talented prospects, I can see not every draft pick being signed. This is not the case here, and should put more onus on the scouts to come up with prospects who can/will play in our system, ranging from the ECHL to the NHL level.

4th and 5th are still a long shot to make it to the NHL - and if its not believed they have a chance - best to let them go. The change in the GM position also means we will likely see more guys let go as Feaster re-shapes things.

[Henry Fool]

The scouting has been one issue, no doubt, but I wonder how much of it is also the fact that Sutter has traded away so many picks, seconds and thirds and so forth.

There's a bit of an optical illusion in there: you can always argue that trading away a pick for an established NHLer is good because there's only such and such chance that the pick will amount to anything, but the problem is that if you don't have those picks, you're guaranteed never to get any good young player for them. You get an NHLer (who may be gone in a couple of years), but you get zero chance of getting a good prospect. That accumulates as you keep trading away your picks.

It's about having enough picks just as much as it is about the scouting.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by sworkhard

Who said it started in 08? Sutter was full time GM in 2006. It's also not revisionist. It's well documented that when he first became part time GM several years before that, the flames had 3 amateur scouts total. Sutter almost tripled the size of the scouting Fepartment of the next couple of years. Then, when he became full time GM in 2006, he made further changes, completely re-evaluated the department, and changed thier main focus to smart players. The first pick made under this philosiphy was Mikael Backlund. He's had decent progression so far, and looks like he might actually end up becoming a #1 (although not franchise) centre in 2-4 years. Kieth Aulie is also hailed as a smart player, although he doesn't have the skill level like some other players, he's smart enough to improve his skills and use the ones he as to make up for the ones he's not as great at.

People need to be patient with the players we pick. We can Judge the 03-05 drafts reasonably well now, and say they weren't good. The 06 draft still has Irving who the flames expect will make the NHL in a year or two and eventually play a significant role on the team. It also wasn't a good draft if he's the only one that makes it.

The 07 to present drafts cant really be judged yet. This is the last year for most for the signed players ELC and although two of the players have made the NHL, we don't know where they will top out yet. As a 22 year old, Backlund has solidified himself as a 3rd liner that thinks quick enough to play with Iggy and Tanguay and have success. He needs to work on some things yet, but he seems to be dedicated to getting better which bodes well for him and for the Flames.

Edit: I wish I could find the articles again, but here were some articles from 06 or 07 where Button talked about how Sutter revamped the scouting once he became full time GM. They were from a local Calgary newpaper IIRC. More recently, Jay Feaster talked about how small the scouting department was when Sutter took over and how much he increased it's size.

Regardless, the organization has not been very good with drafting in a long time (forwards for sure)...part of it is scouting (both personnel and budget) and also philosophy (imo).

I like backlund and think he'll be a good player; but you'd hope that 33-50% of your first round picks ought to make the NHL in some capacity.