Grits/Tories in a tie now?

[transplant99]

According to this poll in today's Sun.

For the first time in this election campaign, a new public opinion poll shows the Liberals and Conservatives running neck-and-neck in support.
As the campaign gears up to hit its second stride, the SES Research-CPAC survey reveals a "statistical tie," with the Liberals at 35% and Conservatives at 34% across Canada.
Overnight tracking released yesterday showed the NDP stayed put at 14%, while the Bloc Quebecois was a static 13% and the Greens gained a point to 5%. The poll of 1,200 Canadians found 16% were still undecided.

http://calsun.canoe.ca/News/Election...74340-sun.html

[Cowperson]

I find American politics interesting.

I find Canadian politics depressing.

A subtle difference. Anyone with me on that one?

Cowperson

[Resolute 14]

http://www.nodice.ca/elections/canada/polls.php

Depends on how you want to look at it. Excluding Quebec, the Liberals and Conservatives have been in a dead heat the entire campaign.

Unfortunately for the Conservatives, they continue to trail by 7-10 points in the only province that matters though. Looking a whole lot like Ontario will decided how we are governed, once again.

I also find it interesting that support for the Greens is highest in Alberta. Probably because the Liberals and NDP are unpalatable choices in this province.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by Cowperson

I find American politics interesting.

I find Canadian politics depressing.

A subtle difference. Anyone with me on that one?

Cowperson

I agree completely Cow.

[octothorp]

The odds are still against the Tories, even in a dead heat. If you look at the Election Prediction Project (http://electionprediction.org/2005_fed/index.html), they currently have the Liberals at 85, the Conservatives at 73, and 85 too close to call.

Not every party is in the running in every undecided riding, however. Here's how the undecided seats break down in terms of parties in the running:

Conservative/Liberal : 49
Conservative/liberal/NDP : 18 seats
Conservative/third party : 7 seats
Liberal/third party : 26 seats


So, let's give an optomistic (for the Tories) projection of the Conservatives winning 65% of the seats they're competing directly with the Liberals for. That would give the Tories 33 seats, while the Liberals would get 16. The Tories are likely to win a higher percentage in the ridings they are battling the NDP for (75%) for another 5 seats (think of these as anti-liberal ridings). Meanwhile, the Liberals will win a higher percentage in the anti-PC ridings (say, 50%), for 13 seats. Of the 18 seats involved in a three-way race, these will trend toward the liberals, but even with a Conservative bias (say, a 45/35/20 split in favour of the Tories), for 8/6/4 seats for the three parties.
Totals for the parties would be:
Conservative: 119
Liberal: 120

That's close, but in this analysis I gave all possible bounces to the Conservatives and they still come up a little short. I think a far more realistic projection would see a split in the Liberal/Conservative seats (25 seats each), 60% each in the third-party seats (4 Cons seats, 15 Liberal seats), and a slight Liberal bias in the three-way seats (45%/35/20, for 6 Tory seats and 8 Grit), resulting in 133 Liberal seats and 108 Conservative.




province by province breakdown of Conservative races:

0 of 14 in Quebec.
3 of 4 in Nova Scotia,
3 of 3 in NB (2 3-way races)
29 of 35 in Ontario (6 3-way)
3 of 3 in Manitoba (1 3-way) 1 non-liberal race
5 of 5 in Sask (3 3-way) 1 non-liberal
1 of 1 in Alberta
16 of 19 in BC (5 3-way races, 1 4-way race) 5 non-liberal
0 of 1 in North

[Canada 02]

^ Your projections of 50% of the 26 Liberal/third party seats going to the Liberals could be a stretch if those seats are in Quebec were the Bloq could get 60+ of the 75 total seats

does the following information change your projections for the undecided vote? Rhetorical question!

The survey found that 14 per cent of undecided voters said the criminal investigation made it certain they would not vote Liberal, while 25 per cent said it made them less likely to vote for the Grits.
"In a tightening election race, these numbers would obviously be a source of some concern for the Liberal party," said Decima CEO Bruce Anderson.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl.../BNStory/Front

By the way, that is a very informative site. Of the 85 'too close to call' seats, 49 have liberal incumbents, 26 conservatives, 6 NDP, 3 BQ and 1 independent. And as I alluded to above, 14 of the 26 Liberal/third party seats are in Quebec, and the Liberals currently hold 11 of those seats. Its a fair bet the Liberals will lose most of those given the strength of the BQ in the Quebec polls

[FlamesAddiction]

A lot of people who say they will vote NDP will end up voting Liberal if they think the Conservatives will win.

If you recall, some polls before the last election predicted a Conservative win. In fact, predicting a Conservative win is not in the best interests of the Conservative party at all.

[Flame On]

Why is that CP, because a right wing party dominates in the US and can't in Canada? I think if I lived in the US I'd be depressed as well as interested. I'm not really depressed in Canada, though it is by no means as interesting.

[Cowperson]

Originally Posted by Flame On

Why is that CP, because a right wing party dominates in the US and can't in Canada? I think if I lived in the US I'd be depressed as well as interested. I'm not really depressed in Canada, though it is by no means as interesting.

If I were an American, I'd probably vote Democrat because the Republicans there are too right wing for me while, in Canada, I'd probably vote Conservative. . . . . although I'm uncomfortable with the current Conservative leadership as being too right wing, hence my vote this time being in question.

I'm also pragmatic and experienced enough to know that politics goes in cycles, that there are times in America when the right will dictate the agenda and other times the left will hold sway. America is pretty polarized and divided right now but that isn't necessarily the norm and that trend can come and go.

In Canada, a nation divided seems to not only be a permanent thing, unlike in America, but also one that isn't likely to be cured and will probably lead to the ultimate fracture of the country into different borders.

Hence I find American politics interesting but Canadian politics depressing.

Cowperson

[4X4]

What I don't get is the whole "conservatives are scary" thing. I mean, with a minority govt (which is hte best the conservatives can hope for at this point), why doesn't the "change is good" mentality come along to boot the libs out of power?

I happen to be pretty right winged economy-wise and center-right socially. So yeah, I'm probably biased. But I can tell you this, my right-wingedness didn't stop me from voting against Ralph last year. Change is necessary no matter who is in power. That's the key to democracy. At least, IMO.

So why is the country so afraid of the cons? It's npt like they'd have the power to start making anti abortion laws, or forcing people to go to church.

I get the fact that Canada does not want to be governed by a religious organization, but have the libs actually scared the population into believing that that can be done? If so, does that mean that the same people who voted liberal instead of conservative go home thinking that it's better to be stolen from than told how to live?

Furthermore, the libs are the ones that keep coming up with programs that require your tax contributions, even though participation is voluntary or not applicable in all cases. Doesn't that sort of breach this zone of comfort that Canadians apparantly cherish so much?

As far as the platforms of the two parties go, I'm not sold on either of them 100%. But I am sold on shaking up parliament. The biggest crime in the house of commons is that half the MPs know full well that they've got the next election wrapped up, as long as they don't do somehting too stupid. And half of the rest know htat they can go Carolyn Parrish and still get re-elected. There is no accountability in the HoC, and there never will be until Canadians prove that they have the balls to fire people who don't do whats expected of them (of that steal and lie).

Hey, iof the cons were to win this election with their promise of not reopening hte gay marriage thing, and then did, the house would fall and hte cons would be lucky to occupy stornoway. On the other hand, the libs lied their way through 3 chretien elections and kept winning larger portions of the house.

Ah, I'm rambling now.

[Lurch]

What I don't get is why those on the right suppose that people don't support the conservatives simply b/c they have been brainwashed into 'Cons are scary'. Seems like an excuse made by a party that simply does not have the pulse of the majority and can't understand why. There are plenty of valid reasons to vote against either Liberals or Conservatives - I don't see the need to make belittling assumptions for those that disagree. Besides, isn't the biggest reason you all vote con is that your daddy did!!

[4X4]

Good job Lurch. I see you read the first line and replied. Did I say that people who don't vote con do so because of hte scary thing? No, I analysed the scary thing.

Belittling assumption, eh?

[transplant99]

There are plenty of valid reasons to vote against either Liberals or Conservatives - I don't see the need to make belittling assumptions for those that disagree. Besides, isn't the biggest reason you all vote con is that your daddy did!!

That's what the Libs have left in the argument for why people vote Conservative?

Cause their "daddy did"??

Can the same be said for those that vote Fiberal?

Wow.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Lurch

What I don't get is why those on the right suppose that people don't support the conservatives simply b/c they have been brainwashed into 'Cons are scary'. Seems like an excuse made by a party that simply does not have the pulse of the majority and can't understand why. There are plenty of valid reasons to vote against either Liberals or Conservatives - I don't see the need to make belittling assumptions for those that disagree. Besides, isn't the biggest reason you all vote con is that your daddy did!!

And your post, especially the part I highlighted is what is wrong with the Liberals and those on the left: Your collossal arrogance.

The Liberals have never once had the "pulse of the majority" either. They have merely benefitted most from a catastrophically broken electoral system that works to drive the regions of this nation apart rather than bring them together.

[CaptainCrunch]

Even in thier last majority win in 1997 the Liberals only received 38% of the votes and yet received 51% of the seats in parliment, the Liberal's obviously haven't had the pulse of the majority in over a decade.

It illustrates the point that the electorial system that we have in place wasn't designed for Canada in 2005 and its time to revamp it in a serious way.

As it stands when your vote counts for less then 1 there's a problem.

[Lurch]

That's what the Libs have left in the argument for why people vote Conservative?

Cause their "daddy did"??

Can the same be said for those that vote Fiberal?

Wow.

I guess joking is against the rules in political discussion - maybe that's what's wrong with the system. Wow. I mean, the nerve. Maybe next time I'll make sure to put a smilie so you won't have to have an aneurysm. And yes, I would bet that the vast majority of voters vote the same way their parents did without really thinking about why. Which is why the Liberals are likely to remain the ruling party most of the time, for bettr or worse.

And your post, especially the part I highlighted is what is wrong with the Liberals and those on the left: Your collossal arrogance.

The Liberals have never once had the "pulse of the majority" either. They have merely benefitted most from a catastrophically broken electoral system that works to drive the regions of this nation apart rather than bring them together.

You might want to stop and think JUST A TOUCH. The party that gets screwed by the broken system most badly is generally the NDP - the left wing fringe. My 'collosal arrogance' is very much in favour of a new system, i.e. proportional rep. My preference, the Greens, will likely get about 5% of the votes with 0 seats. The Manning solution of the EEE Senate is the very non-democratic solution where dirt and lines on a map get representation and gives very excessive power to places like SK, PEI, Nfld (and AB for that matter), etc with low populations.

[Flame On]

Originally Posted by Cowperson

If I were an American, I'd probably vote Democrat because the Republicans there are too right wing for me while, in Canada, I'd probably vote Conservative. . . . . although I'm uncomfortable with the current Conservative leadership as being too right wing, hence my vote this time being in question.

I'm also pragmatic and experienced enough to know that politics goes in cycles, that there are times in America when the right will dictate the agenda and other times the left will hold sway. America is pretty polarized and divided right now but that isn't necessarily the norm and that trend can come and go.

In Canada, a nation divided seems to not only be a permanent thing, unlike in America, but also one that isn't likely to be cured and will probably lead to the ultimate fracture of the country into different borders.

Hence I find American politics interesting but Canadian politics depressing.

Cowperson

A fair rebuttle Mr.C .

[transplant99]

I guess joking is against the rules in political discussion - maybe that's what's wrong with the system.

That was supposed to be funny?


Oh.

[Lurch]

Good job Lurch. I see you read the first line and replied. Did I say that people who don't vote con do so because of hte scary thing? No, I analysed the scary thing.

Belittling assumption, eh?

Sorry if you took it that way. My point is that the scary thing is, IMO, manufactured and reeks of being an excuse. I don't know a single person who says they won't vote conservative because they are 'scary'. I do know many who won't vote conservative for a wide variety of other reasons. In fact, you can see the conservatives figuring things out to an extent b/c every one of their policy announcements thus far in the campaign is centrist or even left leaning.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Lurch

Sorry if you took it that way. My point is that the scary thing is, IMO, manufactured and reeks of being an excuse. I don't know a single person who says they won't vote conservative because they are 'scary'. I do know many who won't vote conservative for a wide variety of other reasons. In fact, you can see the conservatives figuring things out to an extent b/c every one of their policy announcements thus far in the campaign is centrist or even left leaning.

Good point. That's certainly how I feel. I don't find the conservatives to be scary, and I don't think they have a hidden agenda. They just don't believe in the type of Canada I believe in. I think that can be said for many Canadians. No need for all the BS excuses and digging for deeper causes.