2011 Federal election polls, demographics, predictions

[Fire]

Originally Posted by Nehkara

Wow... one final EKOS poll:

CPC - 33.9%
NDP - 31.2%
LIB - 21.0%
BLQ - 6.4%
GRN - 6.0%

Sample size is 3144, MOE 1.8%

EKOS election prediction:

CPC - 130 to 146 seats
NDP - 103 to 123 seats
LIB - 36 to 46 seats
BLQ - 10 to 20 seats
GRN - 1 seat

EKOS is way off. Won't be that close between the NDP and conservatives.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by calculoso

Figures.

One individual moving from one opposition party to the governing party should be outlawed.

The whole party moving from opposition party to the governing party, without an election, is A-OK.

I think that there is a huge difference here. Were you in favour of Belinda Stronach crossing the floor to join the Liberals? You think that is a completely ethical move?

[MacGruber]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

Please explain.

I'd rather not. You and me going back and forth with no chance of changing the other persons mind isn't a great use of time, I'm sure you're quite set in your views as am I.

I will say that I believe one of the core fiscal differences between being a conservative and a liberal minded person is the idea of tax breaks. A conservative believes the trickle down theory where rich folk with create more jobs and invest more with their money, where as a liberal thinks the money is better served going to the middle and lower classes.

There's good arguments for both sides but I find myself of the liberal view and belief.

Good enough?

[SeeBass]

nm

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Fire

EKOS is way off. Won't be that close between the NDP and conservatives.

They certainly are the outlier and we've witnessed in previous elections that they have had a 'house-bias' against the conservatives as it played out last time they had the CPC at 33-34% last time vs. the 37.6% they ended up getting. Also Frank Graves is a former Liberal pollster.

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by Slava

I think that there is a huge difference here. Were you in favour of Belinda Stronach crossing the floor to join the Liberals? You think that is a completely ethical move?

Thanks for putting words in my mouth.

I wasn't in favor of her crossing the floor to join the Conservatives and I wasn't in favor of her crossing back to join the Liberals. It smacked of 'just trying to get elected' rather than actually standing for something and acting accordingly. Having parties join in a coalition after an election for the sole purpose of grabbing power smacks of the exact same thing - they don't care about policy, they just want power. It doesn't matter who or how it happens, it's wrong.

[NBC]

I remain unconvinced that this groundswell of support for the NDP is going to be this comprehensive paradigm shift away from the traditional Liberal-Conservative governance scenarios we have had for the past 140 years. Furthermore, even though there have been instances in Canadian electoral history where Quebec flexes its considerable political muscles and unilaterally changes the national political landscape, I don't think that this is one of those times.

I could be wrong come the end of the night, but somehow I cannot see a 100-seat NDP. Possibly somewhere marginally above the 60-sea mark, but 100 seats would entail the complete destruction of 120 years of largely Liberal hegemony in Quebec.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by calculoso

Thanks for putting words in my mouth.

I wasn't in favor of her crossing the floor to join the Conservatives and I wasn't in favor of her crossing back to join the Liberals. It smacked of 'just trying to get elected' rather than actually standing for something and acting accordingly. Having parties join in a coalition after an election for the sole purpose of grabbing power smacks of the exact same thing - they don't care about policy, they just want power. It doesn't matter who or how it happens, it's wrong.

I didn't mean to put words in your mouth at all, I was asking you a couple questions.

The fact is that those representatives were all elected and a coaltion where they continue to represent the same party and virtually the same principles is totally democractic. From a partisan view the CPC might not like it, but its not at all the same thing.

If the good people of Calgary SE elect Jason Kenney today (which I'm sure that they will) and he crossed the floor to the Liberals that is a completely different story. Clearly the people in Calgary SE might have voted for him because they like him, but no matter how much they like him they voted for him as a CPC representative. Now if he wins and the NDP does better than everyone expects which leads to a CPC/Liberal coaltion to me that is totally acceptable. Jason Kenney is still a CPC member, still representing the wishes of his constituents albeit as part of a coaltion with the Liberals.

(I just used Kenney because in my riding we're voting for Harper, and he won't cross. Kenny was just the next closest MP that sprang to mind. Yes I know that the scenario might never take place....its just an example to show that I think floor crossing and coalition are different cases entirely)

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by NBC

I remain unconvinced that this groundswell of support for the NDP is going to be this comprehensive paradigm shift away from the traditional Liberal-Conservative governance scenarios we have had for the past 140 years. Furthermore, even though there have been instances in Canadian electoral history where Quebec flexes its considerable political muscles and unilaterally changes the national political landscape, I don't think that this is one of those times.

I could be wrong come the end of the night, but somehow I cannot see a 100-seat NDP. Possibly somewhere marginally above the 60-sea mark, but 100 seats would entail the complete destruction of 120 years of largely Liberal hegemony in Quebec.

I can't see 100+ seats either for the NDP. I can see them cleaning up Quebec, but interestingly enough is broader NDP support in Ontario at the expense of the Liberals actually pries way more seats in favor of the Conservatives than the Conservatives stand to lose in Quebec to the NDP. The more I look at project democracy's riding by rising breakdown of close races, the more you figure out that in a lot of the 'Fortress-Toronto' Liberal types seats the close second place is a Conservative. In fact in many of the 'close ridings' contests the polls indicate Conservative gains. It appears that the Conservatives stand to pick up more seats than Project Democracy seems to have the ability to take away from them.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by NBC

I remain unconvinced that this groundswell of support for the NDP is going to be this comprehensive paradigm shift away from the traditional Liberal-Conservative governance scenarios we have had for the past 140 years. Furthermore, even though there have been instances in Canadian electoral history where Quebec flexes its considerable political muscles and unilaterally changes the national political landscape, I don't think that this is one of those times.

I could be wrong come the end of the night, but somehow I cannot see a 100-seat NDP. Possibly somewhere marginally above the 60-sea mark, but 100 seats would entail the complete destruction of 120 years of largely Liberal hegemony in Quebec.

If you want to see the NDP obliterated from the map politically and have everything go back to Conservative vs. Liberal than all you have to do is elect the NDP to a Majority government. It seems to have worked wonders in Ontario as the NDP has been reduced to third party status there ever since Rae got elected.

[mykalberta]

I love when I come into this thread looking for polls, demographics, and predictions and I find the same bickering as in the other thread.

Tonight will show which polls are complete BS and which are not.

Here are the final Nanos Numbers.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by mykalberta

I love when I come into this thread looking for polls, demographics, and predictions and I find the same bickering as in the other thread.

Tonight will show which polls are complete BS and which are not.

I put up polls demographics and predictions!

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by mykalberta

I love when I come into this thread looking for polls, demographics, and predictions and I find the same bickering as in the other thread.

It's not bickering, it's... ahem... debating!

[Tinordi]

I think the table is set pretty well for a Conservative majority. If they can't win one now they never will under their current incarnation.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

I think the table is set pretty well for a Conservative majority. If they can't win one now they never will under their current incarnation.

they will get close...dunno if they quite get there though.

[Cowboy89]

http://www.nanosresearch.com/electio...Memo-2011E.pdf

Interesting, it shows a dead heat tie between the NDP and the Conservatives on Saturday, but on Sunday with twice the sample size shows the Conservatives up 8 points with 38.5%. Was there a shift back on the weekend from the Orange Surge?

http://www.nanosresearch.com/electio...eadershipE.pdf

EDIT: Look at the leadership reversal too. Maybe the Massage parlour news story had an effect on those in the middle.

[Nehkara]

My final prediction:

CPC - 139
NDP - 98
LIB - 57
BLQ - 14
GRN - 0

By region:

BC

CPC - 19
NDP - 13
LIB - 4

ALBERTA

CPC - 27
NDP - 1
LIB - 0

PRARIES

CPC - 21
NDP - 5
LIB - 2

ONTARIO

CPC - 55
NDP - 21
LIB - 30

QUEBEC

CPC - 5
BLOC - 14
NDP - 48
LIB - 8

ATLANTIC

CPC - 11
NDP - 9
LIB - 12

NORTH

CPC - 1
NDP - 1
LIB - 1

[calculoso]

Electionprediction:

Current Prediction:
Changed: 2011-05-02 02:21:27

Conservative Party - 146
N.D.P. - 65
Liberal Party - 63
Bloc Quebecois - 33
Independent - 1
Total 308

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

http://www.nanosresearch.com/electio...Memo-2011E.pdf

Interesting, it shows a dead heat tie between the NDP and the Conservatives on Saturday, but on Sunday with twice the sample size shows the Conservatives up 8 points with 38.5%. Was there a shift back on the weekend from the Orange Surge?

http://www.nanosresearch.com/electio...eadershipE.pdf

EDIT: Look at the leadership reversal too. Maybe the Massage parlour news story had an effect on those in the middle.

It could be. Could also just be variation within the margin of error.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by calculoso

Electionprediction:

Current Prediction:
Changed: 2011-05-02 02:21:27

Conservative Party - 146
N.D.P. - 65
Liberal Party - 63
Bloc Quebecois - 33
Independent - 1
Total 308

Those guys seem a bit whacky....just look at their 2008 predictions.

Missed the CPC total by 18 seats under
Missed the Libs by 17 over.

http://www.electionprediction.org/2007_fed/index.php