2011 Federal election polls, demographics, predictions

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

So you're Kreskin there caged?

..

[CaptainCrunch]

I don't even know if they'll pick up 20 seats in Quebec, there are going to be a lot of interesting votes there. I will really be watching Duceppes riding with a lot of interest.

[burn_this_city]

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/de...483/story.html

Which party the newspapers support.

[Nehkara]

Harris-Decima

CPC - 36%
NDP - 30%
LIB - 19%
LBQ - 6%
GRN - 6%

Sample size is 1000 and the poll was taken over 5 days. MOE is 3.1%

[Slava]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Why would I do that, I don't remember stating that opinion at any floor crossing.

And if a coalition is legal under the rules of parliament, then so is floor crossings.

And to me anything that prevents Jack Layton from setting economic policy in this country is a good thing.

Floor crossing might be legal, but it is still not ethical. If its right after an election then its downright undemocratic. People elected their representative based on that party and their principles. Switching parties at that point is leaving the people that elected you unrepresented.

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I remember talking to a heavily involved NDP supporter once just a few years ago, and I asked him about a merger of the left.

The first thing he did was snort in disgust and tell me that the Liberal's weren't a left party, they were a power party which meant that they would take any stance to keep power.

Then he informed me that the NDP role was not to merge with the Liberal's, it was to supplant then destroy the Liberals.

Well thats all great at this point, but you just never know. Remember the "Liberal, Tory same old story" line from the Reform party? That disappeared pretty quick when there was political power to be had.

[Nehkara]

Nanos Research


CPC - 37.1%
NDP - 31.6%
LIB - 20.5%
LBQ - 5.7%
GRN - 3.8%

1054 sample size, 3.0% MOE

[Jedi Ninja]

Here's their standings in the last election by way of comparison

<Removed>

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Slava

Floor crossing might be legal, but it is still not ethical. If its right after an election then its downright undemocratic. People elected their representative based on that party and their principles. Switching parties at that point is leaving the people that elected you unrepresented.

Its entirely ethical since its allowed under parliamentary rules.

And the people that voted for them voted for the Liberal's to govern, not for them to be subservient to the NDP.

And if the Blue Liberals don't believe in the economic platforms of the NDP or a coalition government, or don't want to work for Jack Layton then crossing the floor is their option and in the next election they can face their voters, thats how the system works.

But don't give me unethical when its in the rules that it can be done legally.

Now I will put a rider in here. I had problems with Brenda Stromach crossing the floor because she was offered a cabinet positionas a reward to cross the floor. If Blue Liberal cross and sit in the back bench I don't have a problem with it.

[kn]

nm

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by Jedi Ninja

Here's their standings in the last election by way of comparison

PC 36.27%
Liberal 30.23%
BQ 10.48%
NDP 17.48%
Green 6.78%

That is wrong actually, that was the vote distribution of the 2006 election. Except the number for the green party which is from the 2008 election. Where did you get those numbers?

This was the vote distribution last election in 2008:

CPC - 37.65%
LIB - 26.26%
BLQ - 9.98%
NDP - 18.18%
GRN - 6.78%

[Fire]

My prediction:

CPC-146
NDP- 67
LPC- 61
BQ - 33
IND- 1

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by Fire

My prediction:

CPC-146
NDP- 67
LPC- 61
BQ - 33
IND- 1

I think you are giving the Bloc too much credit. They appear to have almost entirely collapsed. Other than that you may be close.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Its entirely ethical since its allowed under parliamentary rules.

And the people that voted for them voted for the Liberal's to govern, not for them to be subservient to the NDP.

And if the Blue Liberals don't believe in the economic platforms of the NDP or a coalition government, or don't want to work for Jack Layton then crossing the floor is their option and in the next election they can face their voters, thats how the system works.

But don't give me unethical when its in the rules that it can be done legally.

Now I will put a rider in here. I had problems with Brenda Stromach crossing the floor because she was offered a cabinet positionas a reward to cross the floor. If Blue Liberal cross and sit in the back bench I don't have a problem with it.

Its the wrong thread for this, but its undemocratic and unethical. If its a slam-dunk then IMO resign and go to the polls. I get "how the system works", but that isn't what makes it unethical. Anyway....we'll be going in circles here and this is the wrong thread for this. We'll cross that bridge if/when it comes.

[transplant99]

I think you are giving the Bloc too much credit. They appear to have almost entirely collapsed. Other than that you may be close

Except when you get to riding by riding...the Bloc leads pretty comfortably in about 30 of them and is ahead in 10 others.

[Jedi Ninja]

Originally Posted by Nehkara

That is wrong actually, that was the vote distribution of the 2006 election. Except the number for the green party which is from the 2008 election. Where did you get those numbers?

This was the vote distribution last election in 2008:

CPC - 37.65%
LIB - 26.26%
BLQ - 9.98%
NDP - 18.18%
GRN - 6.78%

You are, of course, correct. I wasn't paying attention and accidentally transcribed the "previous" column.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Slava

Its the wrong thread for this, but its undemocratic and unethical. If its a slam-dunk then IMO resign and go to the polls. I get "how the system works", but that isn't what makes it unethical. Anyway....we'll be going in circles here and this is the wrong thread for this. We'll cross that bridge if/when it comes.

Word for word what was said by those opposing the coalition.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Word for word what was said by those opposing the coalition.

Completely different IMO. On one hand you have people electing who they want to see form government and then those representatives getting together and doing so. On the other hand you have someone elected for their views and policies...but then abandoning these and embracing the party they just ran against.

Like I say, if its no big deal then resign and win an election for the party that the voters didn't vote for.

[transplant99]

Sorry...but not one single person in 2008 voted for an NDP/Liberal/Seperatist govenment...not one.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Sorry...but not one single person in 2008 voted for an NDP/Liberal/Seperatist govenment...not one.

Well this is going to be the last reply in this thread....we really are so far off topic!

Fact is that people voted for the Liberals and NDP members to have them represent them in government under those principles. Everyone knows going to the polls that (A) their guy might not win (B) their guy might win, but that doesn't mean that you get everything you want.

The thing that people don't know in advance though is that the newly elected Liberal is going to flip to the CPC the week after (ala David Emerson). Is it allowable? Sure. Is it ethical? Absolutely not IMO.

[Nehkara]

Wow... one final EKOS poll:

CPC - 33.9%
NDP - 31.2%
LIB - 21.0%
BLQ - 6.4%
GRN - 6.0%

Sample size is 3144, MOE 1.8%

EKOS election prediction:

CPC - 130 to 146 seats
NDP - 103 to 123 seats
LIB - 36 to 46 seats
BLQ - 10 to 20 seats
GRN - 1 seat